Minor League All-Stars vs Dodgers

I've recently imported some minor league stats from ZIPS projections into my simulator and created a minor league All-Star team based off of the ZIPS projections (MLEs) of the best minor leaguers that have yet to crack the major leagues.  I then pit that team against a major league team to see how well they match up.  So far I have matched them up against the Royals and the Phillies.  The minor league All-Star team actually beat the Royals, winning an average of 51.72% of the time.  The Phillies on the other hand won 65.67% of the time.  Now I take a look at how the Dodgers did.  There are still a handful of teams that ZIPS does not have projections for at this time, so players from those teams are not eligible for the minor league All-Star team yet.  Jerry Sands is the only Dodgers to crack the minor league All-Star team (starting left fielder).

The methodology I used was to have each #1 starting pitcher face each other, both away and home. I then did the same thing for the #2 thru #5 pitchers, thus having a 10 game series. Each of the 10 games was simulated/played 100K times with the simulator spitting out a win probability for each game. I decided to use the same bullpens for each team (the Dodgers bullpen) and give all of the minor league players a league average defensive rating.

Here are the rosters of the two teams that I used.  Keep in mind that lineups don't matter much.

Lineups
AAA All-Stars			Los Angeles Dodgers
Pos	Name	Org	Name	Pos
CF	Charles Blackmon	COL	SS	Rafael Furcal
C	Devin Mesoraco	CIN	CF	Matt Kemp
1B	Brandon Belt	SF	RF	Andre Ethier
3B	Mike Moustakas	KC	2B	Juan Uribe
LF	Jerry Sands	LAN	1B	James Loney
RF	J.D. Martinez	HOU	LF	Marcus Thames
2B	Daniel Descalso	STL	3B	Casey Blake
SS	Grant Green	OAK	C	Rod Barajas
P	Pitcher	NA	P	Pitcher

Now let's take a look at the starting rotations.

AAA All-Stars			Los Angeles Dodgers
	Name	Organization		Name
#1	Michael Pineda	SEA	vs	Clayton Kershaw
#2	Julian Teheran	ATL	vs	Chad Billingsley
#3	Jake McGee	TB	vs	Hiroki Kuroda
#4	Christian Freidrich	COL	vs	Ted Lilly
#5	Mike Montgomery	KC	vs	Jon Garland

Now let's take a look at the game results...

Results
Away	Away SP	Home	Home SP	Favorite	Win Prob
Dodgers	Clayton Kershaw	AAA All-Stars	Michael Pineda	Dodgers	58.44%
AAA All-Stars	Michael Pineda	Dodgers	Clayton Kershaw	Dodgers	70.65%
Dodgers	Chad Billingsley	AAA All-Stars	Julian Teheran	Dodgers	56.59%
AAA All-Stars	Julian Teheran	Dodgers	Chad Billingsley	Dodgers	69.43%
Dodgers	Hiroki Kuroda	AAA All-Stars	Jake McGee	Dodgers	50.68%
AAA All-Stars	Jake McGee	Dodgers	Hiroki Kuroda	Dodgers	63.65%
Dodgers	Ted Lilly	AAA All-Stars	Christian Freidrich	Dodgers	52.91%
AAA All-Stars	Christian Freidrich	Dodgers	Ted Lilly	Dodgers	64.83%
Dodgers	Jon Garland	AAA All-Stars	Mike Montgomery	AAA All-Stars	52.67%
AAA All-Stars	Mike Montgomery	Dodgers	Jon Garland	Dodgers	60.16%

Mean win percentage for the Dodgers is 59.47%. So using the ZIPS projections as input for the AAA All-Star team and my proprietary set of projections for the Dodgers, the AAA All-Star team, the Dodgers beat up the AAA All-Star team pretty bad, a little bit worse than how badly the Dodgers would beat up the Diamondbacks.


Simulator Notes: My simulator takes into account (among other things) park factors, home field advantage, defense, splits, base running and uses a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections for MLB players.