AL Zero to Three VS NL Zero to Three

In case you haven't been following the series over at FanGraphs, Jonah Keri has put together an AL and NL All-Star team from players with less than three years of major league service, who are making at or near league minimum. The NL Zero to Three team was posted first, followed by the AL Zero to Three team. I volunteered to run a simulation between the two rosters to see which was the stronger team.

Here are the results...

Away	Home	Away SP	Home SP	Favorite	Win Probability
NL	AL	Clayton Kershaw	Clay Buccholz	AL	50.509
AL	NL	Clay Buchholz	Clayton Kershaw	NL	61.487
NL	AL	Tommy Hanson	Justin Masterson	AL	52.045
AL	NL	Justin Masterson	Tommy Hanson	NL	58.186
NL	AL	Mat Latos	Kyle Drabek	NL	57.194
AL	NL	Kyle Drabek	Mat Latos	NL	67.676
NL	AL	Travis Wood	Gio Gonzalez	AL	53.619
AL	NL	Gio Gonzalez	Travis Wood	NL	55.999
NL	AL	Jaime Garcia	Doug Fister	AL	52.062
AL	NL	Doug Fister	Jaime Garcia	NL	57.789

As expected the NL team dominates this simulation. Their average win probability over the 10 games is 55.01%. If you put that in per 162 games, the NL team would win 89.12 games.