In the previous days, I've looked at the Dodgers simulations against the Giants , Rockies and Padres, now it's time to look at the final NL West opponent, the Arizona Diamondbacks. In this exercise, each pitching matchup was simulated 100K times with each team taking a shot at being both the away and home team. Below are the lineups, starting rotations used as well as the results (50). A hit tip to Jim McLellan from AZ Snakepit for helping me out with the Diamondbacks batting lineups.
| Diamondbacks Starting Lineup | Dodgers Starting Lineup | ||||||||
| Diamondbacks vs LHP | Diamondbacks vs RHP | Dodgers vs LHP | Dodgers vs RHP | ||||||
| Order | Pos | Name | Pos | Name | Pos | Name | Pos | Name | |
| 1 | SS | S.Drew | SS | S.Drew | SS | R.Furcal | SS | R.Furcal | |
| 2 | CF | C.Young | RF | J.Upton | CF | M.Kemp | CF | M.Kemp | |
| 3 | 2B | K.Johnson | 2B | K.Johnson | RF | A.Ethier | RF | A.Ethier | |
| 4 | RF | J.Upton | CF | C.Young | 3B | C.Blake | 1B | J.Loney | |
| 5 | C | M.Montero | C | M.Montero | 2B | J.Uribe | 3B | C.Blake | |
| 6 | LF | X.Nady | LF | X.Nady | LF | M.Thames | 2B | J.Uribe | |
| 7 | 3B | M.Mora | 1B | J.Miranda | 1B | J.Loney | LF | J.Gibbons | |
| 8 | 1B | J.Miranda | 3B | M.Mora | C | R.Barajas | C | R.Barajas | |
| Diamondbacks Rotation | Dodgers Rotation | ||
| #1 | Daniel Hudson | #1 | Clayton Kershaw |
| #2 | Ian Kennedy | #2 | Chad Billingsley |
| #3 | Joe Saunders | #3 | Hiroki Kuroda |
| #4 | Zach Duke | #4 | Ted Lilly |
| #5 | Armando Galarraga | #5 | Jon Garland |
| Simulation Results | |||
| Away Starter | Home Starter | Favorite | Win Prob |
| Daniel Hudson | Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 63.32% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Daniel Hudson | Dodgers | 53.45% |
| Daniel Hudson | Chad Billingsley | Dodgers | 64.59% |
| Chad Billingsley | Daniel Hudson | Dodgers | 54.03% |
| Daniel Hudson | Hiroki Kuroda | Dodgers | 62.27% |
| Hiroki Kuroda | Daniel Hudson | Dodgers | 52.08% |
| Daniel Hudson | Ted Lilly | Dodgers | 54.44% |
| Ted Lilly | Daniel Hudson | Diamondbacks | 54.75% |
| Daniel Hudson | Jon Garland | Dodgers | 55.13% |
| Jon Garland | Daniel Hudson | Diamondbacks | 55.93% |
| Ian Kennedy | Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 65.79% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Ian Kennedy | Dodgers | 55.39% |
| Ian Kennedy | Chad Billingsley | Dodgers | 66.93% |
| Chad Billingsley | Ian Kennedy | Dodgers | 56.19% |
| Ian Kennedy | Hiroki Kuroda | Dodgers | 64.73% |
| Hiroki Kuroda | Ian Kennedy | Dodgers | 54.25% |
| Ian Kennedy | Ted Lilly | Dodgers | 56.88% |
| Ted Lilly | Ian Kennedy | Diamondbacks | 52.54% |
| Ian Kennedy | Jon Garland | Dodgers | 52.18% |
| Jon Garland | Ian Kennedy | Diamondbacks | 53.45% |
| Joe Saunders | Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 67.00% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Joe Saunders | Dodgers | 57.28% |
| Joe Saunders | Chad Billingsley | Dodgers | 68.20% |
| Chad Billingsley | Joe Saunders | Dodgers | 57.86% |
| Joe Saunders | Hiroki Kuroda | Dodgers | 65.78% |
| Hiroki Kuroda | Joe Saunders | Dodgers | 56.17% |
| Joe Saunders | Ted Lilly | Dodgers | 58.32% |
| Ted Lilly | Joe Saunders | Diamondbacks | 50.40% |
| Joe Saunders | Jon Garland | Dodgers | 58.59% |
| Jon Garland | Joe Saunders | Diamondbacks | 51.62% |
| Zach Duke | Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 69.01% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Zach Duke | Dodgers | 58.97% |
| Zach Duke | Chad Billingsley | Dodgers | 69.91% |
| Chad Billingsley | Zach Duke | Dodgers | 59.55% |
| Zach Duke | Hiroki Kuroda | Dodgers | 67.66% |
| Hiroki Kuroda | Zach Duke | Dodgers | 57.76% |
| Zach Duke | Ted Lilly | Dodgers | 59.83% |
| Ted Lilly | Zach Duke | Dodgers | 50.99% |
| Zach Duke | Jon Garland | Dodgers | 60.73% |
| Jon Garland | Zach Duke | Dodgers | 50.26% |
| Armando Galarraga | Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 70.65% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Armando Galarraga | Dodgers | 61.77% |
| Armando Galarraga | Chad Billingsley | Dodgers | 71.93% |
| Chad Billingsley | Armando Galarraga | Dodgers | 62.22% |
| Armando Galarraga | Hiroki Kuroda | Dodgers | 69.74% |
| Hiroki Kuroda | Armando Galarraga | Dodgers | 60.46% |
| Armando Galarraga | Ted Lilly | Dodgers | 62.30% |
| Ted Lilly | Armando Galarraga | Dodgers | 54.05% |
| Armando Galarraga | Jon Garland | Dodgers | 62.82% |
| Jon Garland | Armando Galarraga | Dodgers | 52.93% |
When you average the combined win probability of all fifty games, the Dodgers have an average win probability of 58.42%. Extrapolated out over a 162 game season the Dodgers would win 94.65 games and the Diamondbacks would win 67.35. The Diamondbacks will likely struggle this year.
Sources:
MLB Depth Charts
Fangraphs
AZ Snakepit
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