Dodgers vs Giants - Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores 4/15

                                   Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

Rank	Dodgers	Giants	Occurrences		Rank	Dodgers	Giants	Occurrences
1	2	3	4983		51	0	7	530
2	1	2	4825		52	7	5	502
3	3	4	3594		53	7	4	499
4	2	1	3495		54	2	8	495
5	3	2	3477		55	1	8	448
6	1	3	3078		56	5	7	444
7	0	1	2873		57	8	2	435
8	2	4	2574		58	3	8	398
9	4	3	2572		59	7	6	389
10	3	1	2564		60	8	3	369
11	0	2	2414		61	7	0	363
12	4	2	2373		62	0	8	353
13	1	4	2338		63	4	8	353
14	4	5	2156		64	8	1	343
15	1	0	2155		65	8	4	302
16	0	3	2048		66	2	9	298
17	2	0	1988		67	1	9	268
18	2	5	1849		68	7	8	265
19	4	1	1835		69	8	0	250
20	1	5	1687		70	3	9	242
21	3	5	1618		71	8	5	240
22	3	0	1584		72	5	8	237
23	0	4	1577		73	0	9	234
24	5	2	1554		74	9	1	231
25	5	3	1489		75	9	2	220
26	5	4	1478		76	9	3	219
27	0	5	1215		77	8	6	215
28	5	6	1200		78	6	8	203
29	5	1	1194		79	9	4	198
30	2	6	1178		80	4	9	190
31	1	6	1154		81	8	7	180
32	4	0	1130		82	1	10	167
33	3	6	1107		83	9	5	164
34	6	3	1027		84	2	10	157
35	6	2	949		85	10	3	154
36	6	4	886		86	3	10	152
37	4	6	831		87	9	0	148
38	6	1	801		88	10	1	147
39	6	5	792		89	5	9	140
40	0	6	781		90	10	2	133
41	5	0	776		91	4	10	132
42	2	7	685		92	2	11	131
43	1	7	683		93	0	10	127
44	7	2	661		94	9	6	120
45	3	7	643		95	10	4	117
46	6	0	597		96	8	9	104
47	4	7	596		97	1	11	99
48	7	3	586		98	9	7	95
49	6	7	571		99	6	9	92
50	7	1	540		100	3	11	86

Disclaimer: 100K simulations.

Dodgers vs Giants - Simulation Results 9/26

Giants vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 9/14

Giants vs Dodgers - Simulation Results April 3

Here are the simulation results for the April 2nd game between the Giants and the Dodgers.

Giants vs Dodgers
Tim Lincecum vs Josh Beckett

Record: 1-1 (0.500)
RS: 4
RA: 3
Pythag Record: 1.28 - 0.72 (0.640)
Record As Favorites: 1-1
Record As Underdogs: 0-0

Simulation Results Notes:
Dodgers win expectancy is 49.44%
Giants on average score 3.572 runs
Dodgers on average score 3.371 runs
Total Runs scored on average: 6.943

Starting Pitching Lines:
Tim Lincecum - 6.0ip, 6.9so, 2.5bb, 5.5hits, 0.55hrs, 99pitches, 3.351fip
Josh Beckett - 6.2ip, 6.2so, 2.0bb, 6.1hits, 0.59hrs, 99pitches, 3.390fip

Some numbers from the Vegas odds:
Dodgers win expectancy: 54.65%
Over/Under: 6.5 -110o +100u

Top 20 Most Likely Final Scores:
1. Dodgers 3-2
2. Dodgers 2-1
3. Dodgers 4-3
4. Giants 3-2
5. Giants 2-1
6. Giants 3-1
7. Giants 4-3
8. Giants 4-2
9. Dodgers 1-0
10. Dodgers 3-1
11. Dodgers 5-4
12. Dodgers 4-2
13. Giants 2-0
14. Giants 4-1
15. Giants 1-0
16. Dodgers 2-0
17. Dodgers 4-1
18. Giants 5-4
19. Giants 5-3
20. Giants 3-0
.
.
100. Dodgers 9-7

September 7th - Dodgers vs Giants Simulation Results

                   |    Wins     Losses           RS         RA
  Dodgers  +------------------------------------------------------------------
                   |   44864    55136        385623    410117

  Vegas Results:
      Money Line:  Giants -114/+109  (Giants have a 52.72% win expectancy)
      Run Totals:    Over 7 -105, Under 7 -105

Hitters

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	RUNS	BB	SO	wOBA
Mark Ellis	4.451	1.154	0.795	0.264	0.022	0.073	0.291	0.254	0.313	1.081	0.303
Shane Victorino	4.272	1.170	0.784	0.232	0.072	0.083	0.345	0.329	0.359	0.820	0.329
Adrian Gonzalez	4.238	1.291	0.818	0.312	0.006	0.155	0.616	0.198	0.355	0.924	0.368
Matt Kemp	4.138	1.170	0.753	0.244	0.031	0.142	0.551	0.219	0.330	1.278	0.345
Hanley Ramirez	4.045	1.119	0.710	0.244	0.027	0.138	0.558	0.206	0.320	1.131	0.340
Andre Ethier	3.890	1.067	0.685	0.253	0.009	0.121	0.519	0.148	0.388	1.064	0.341
Luis Cruz	3.941	1.026	0.685	0.263	0.007	0.071	0.406	0.142	0.193	0.927	0.298
A.J. Ellis	3.517	0.899	0.634	0.184	0.008	0.072	0.364	0.136	0.521	1.032	0.329
Pitchers Spot	3.808	0.414	0.331	0.067	0.003	0.012	0.137	0.077	0.142	2.171	0.130
Dodgers
Angel Pagan	4.310	1.323	0.868	0.311	0.088	0.057	0.346	0.399	0.339	0.643	0.357
Marco Scutaro	4.250	1.308	0.982	0.251	0.023	0.052	0.423	0.286	0.242	0.412	0.336
Pablo Sandoval	4.150	1.303	0.835	0.341	0.034	0.093	0.516	0.245	0.303	0.623	0.366
Buster Posey	3.944	1.261	0.866	0.281	0.004	0.110	0.558	0.220	0.394	0.689	0.376
Hunter Pence	3.954	1.146	0.794	0.220	0.020	0.112	0.530	0.223	0.287	0.862	0.341
Brandon Belt	3.728	1.076	0.683	0.271	0.034	0.088	0.506	0.204	0.422	0.721	0.356
Gregor Blanco	3.631	1.038	0.727	0.183	0.040	0.088	0.474	0.208	0.412	0.770	0.349
Brandon Crawford	3.647	0.984	0.648	0.241	0.046	0.050	0.443	0.190	0.285	0.608	0.319
Pitchers Spot	3.676	0.556	0.450	0.092	0.005	0.010	0.208	0.120	0.136	1.440	0.169

Pitchers

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Josh Beckett	6.070	4.302	1.783	7.211	0.488	97.389	3.710
Brandon League	0.432	0.373	0.134	0.440	0.015	6.832	2.842
Ronald Belisario	0.400	0.375	0.138	0.413	0.020	6.471	2.999
Randy Choate	0.598	0.630	0.215	0.584	0.038	9.721	2.988
Javy Guerra	0.274	0.236	0.124	0.290	0.013	4.571	3.475
Matt Guerrier	0.218	0.173	0.086	0.247	0.019	3.605	3.958
Shawn Tolleson	0.490	0.469	0.226	0.530	0.052	8.319	4.059
Jamey Wright	0.253	0.210	0.114	0.282	0.014	4.251	3.608
Dodgers
Tim Lincecum	6.167	7.066	1.929	6.189	0.599	100.277	3.109
Sergio Romo	0.444	0.632	0.079	0.367	0.034	6.857	1.898
Javier Lopez	0.394	0.377	0.131	0.410	0.019	6.366	2.894
Santiago Casilla	0.624	0.675	0.203	0.650	0.066	10.196	3.386
Jeremy Affeldt	0.269	0.265	0.105	0.274	0.014	4.422	3.070
Jose Mijares	0.159	0.162	0.065	0.165	0.013	2.646	3.419
Guillermo Mota	0.713	0.737	0.276	0.761	0.079	11.876	3.737
George Kontos	0.479	0.514	0.131	0.493	0.044	7.675	3.067

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August 21st - Giants vs Dodgers Simulation Box Score

                   |    Wins     Losses          RS         RA
  Dodgers  +------------------------------------------------------
                   |    57685    42315       393160   346818

  Vegas Odds:
              Money Line:  Dodgers -113/+108 (Dodgers have a 52.49% chance of winning)
              Run Total:   Over 7-1/2 +102, Under 7-1/2 -112

Hitting

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	RUNS	BB	SO	wOBA
Angel Pagan	4.421	1.226	0.879	0.263	0.036	0.049	0.290	0.334	0.332	0.947	0.317
Marco Scutaro	4.328	1.230	0.934	0.235	0.011	0.050	0.365	0.237	0.256	0.613	0.312
Pablo Sandoval	4.257	1.216	0.799	0.318	0.014	0.085	0.445	0.200	0.294	0.902	0.332
Buster Posey	4.053	1.162	0.804	0.252	0.001	0.105	0.489	0.179	0.391	1.003	0.343
Hunter Pence	4.051	1.030	0.718	0.201	0.009	0.101	0.445	0.180	0.296	1.233	0.304
Brandon Belt	3.808	0.972	0.640	0.231	0.014	0.087	0.431	0.159	0.452	1.049	0.324
Gregor Blanco	3.723	0.951	0.677	0.172	0.018	0.084	0.407	0.172	0.426	1.031	0.318
Brandon Crawford	3.554	0.868	0.597	0.204	0.013	0.054	0.382	0.158	0.478	0.868	0.312
Pitchers Spot	3.785	0.405	0.328	0.065	0.001	0.010	0.153	0.080	0.141	2.129	0.127
Dodgers
Shane Victorino	4.145	1.173	0.787	0.244	0.053	0.089	0.322	0.366	0.474	0.683	0.348
Mark Ellis	4.072	1.078	0.760	0.233	0.018	0.068	0.404	0.233	0.398	0.870	0.317
Matt Kemp	3.999	1.192	0.762	0.248	0.025	0.157	0.565	0.243	0.425	1.083	0.372
Andre Ethier	3.827	1.070	0.684	0.258	0.007	0.121	0.543	0.199	0.520	0.961	0.358
Hanley Ramirez	3.801	1.095	0.706	0.245	0.023	0.121	0.533	0.217	0.416	0.918	0.358
James Loney	3.727	1.076	0.741	0.242	0.007	0.086	0.502	0.178	0.395	0.602	0.347
Luis Cruz	3.729	0.986	0.641	0.265	0.006	0.074	0.460	0.147	0.258	0.807	0.312
A.J. Ellis	3.466	0.891	0.640	0.181	0.007	0.063	0.387	0.127	0.418	0.960	0.318
Pitchers Spot	3.611	0.440	0.353	0.073	0.003	0.012	0.146	0.087	0.181	1.847	0.149

Pitching

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Tim Lincecum	5.859	5.983	2.375	6.040	0.568	97.373	3.633
Sergio Romo	0.431	0.548	0.091	0.370	0.028	6.662	2.125
Jeremy Affeldt	0.420	0.383	0.143	0.429	0.020	6.746	3.018
Santiago Casilla	0.620	0.603	0.243	0.659	0.070	10.275	3.909
Javier Lopez	0.283	0.229	0.140	0.305	0.016	4.782	3.813
Clay Hensley	0.226	0.187	0.116	0.244	0.017	3.843	4.071
Jose Mijares	0.573	0.510	0.266	0.616	0.046	9.658	3.866
George Kontos	0.315	0.287	0.111	0.340	0.025	5.143	3.492
Dodgers
Joe Blanton	6.394	6.728	1.870	6.323	0.452	101.998	2.892
Kenley Jansen	0.446	0.754	0.144	0.296	0.032	7.181	1.708
Brandon League	0.403	0.347	0.139	0.415	0.016	6.465	3.031
Javy Guerra	0.613	0.586	0.272	0.611	0.029	10.170	3.237
Randy Choate	0.266	0.303	0.119	0.240	0.017	4.413	3.102
Ronald Belisario	0.158	0.166	0.057	0.148	0.008	2.547	2.827
Shawn Tolleson	0.635	0.568	0.295	0.677	0.054	10.690	3.914
Jamey Wright	0.346	0.322	0.170	0.350	0.016	5.830	3.426

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May 9th Simulations

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
BOS	KC	Jon Lester vs Bruce Chen	BOS	TBD	53.10%	TBD
CHA	CLE	Jake Peavy vs Jeanmar Gomez	CHA	TBD	50.08%	TBD
COL	SD	Chris Friedrich vs Anthony Bass	COL	TBD	51.93%	TBD
SF	LAN	Tim Lincecum vs Chad Billingsley	LAN	TBD	53.50%	TBD
CIN	MIL	Johnny Cueto vs Zach Greinke	MIL	TBD	56.80%	TBD
FLA	HOU	Josh Johnson vs Lucas Harrell	FLA	TBD	65.75%	TBD
ATL	CHN	Tim Hudson vs Paul Maholm	ATL	TBD	55.62%	TBD
TOR	OAK	Brandon Morrow vs Tyson Ross	TOR	TBD	50.56%	TBD
STL	ARI	Kyle Lohse vs Wade Miley	STL	TBD	51.32%	TBD
NYN	PHI	Dillon Gee vs Cliff Lee	PHI	TBD	69.90%	TBD
TB	NYA	Jeff Niemann vs David Phelps	NYA	TBD	54.27%	TBD
TEX	BAL	Colby Lewis vs Wei-Yin Chen	TEX	TBD	53.97%	TBD
WAS	PIT	Ross Detwiler vs Erik Bedard	PIT	TBD	57.65%	TBD
LAA	MIN	Ervin Santana vs Carl Pavano	LAA	TBD	51.92%	TBD
DET	SEA	Drew Smyly vs Jason Vargas	DET	TBD	56.98%	TBD

Current ROI: 8.33%

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Vegas Predicts Record Setting Low Scoring Game

Vegas has set the Over/Under (also known as Total Runs) for today's Dodgers vs Giants game (pitched by Kershaw and Lincecum) at 5-1/2 runs. This is the second lowest run total of the season according to Vegas. And amazingly 18 out of the 19 lowest run totals are games that involve an NL West (non Rockies) team. Below is the list of the Top 10 lowest Vegas run totals from the 2011 season so far.

Rank	Data	Away	Home	Away SP	Home SP	Over/Under	Actual Runs
1	07-17-2011	SF	SD	Matt Cain	Mat Latos	5.4	7
2	09-09-2011	LAN	SF	Clayton Kershaw	Tim Lincecum	5.5	TBD
3	05-21-2011	SEA	SD	Michael Pineda	Clayton Richard	5.6	4
3	07-15-2011	SF	SD	Tim Lincecum	Dustin Moseley	5.6	7
3	07-27-2011	ARI	SD	Ian Kennedy	Cory Luebke	5.6	7
3	06-28-2011	ATL	SEA	Tommy Hanson	Michael Pineda	5.6	9
7	06-26-2011	LAA	LAN	Jered Weaver	Clayton Kershaw	5.7	5
7	07-20-2011	LAN	SF	Clayton Kershaw	Tim Lincecum	5.7	1
7	07-16-2011	SF	SD	Barry Zito	Cory Luebke	5.7	14
10	05-21-2011	OAK	SF	Brett Anderson	Tim Lincecum	5.8	3
10	06-02-2011	HOU	SD	Bud Norris	Tim Stauffer	5.8	11
10	09-03-2011	ARI	SF	Ian Kennedy	Tim Lincecum	5.8	9

September 9th Simulations

Second Place Or Bust! ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Giants	C.Kershaw vs T.Lincecum	Giants	54.02%	57.31%	LAN 2-1
Cubs	Mets	C.Coleman vs M.Pelfrey	Mets	56.62%	59.77%	TBD
Marlins	Pirates	R.Nolasco vs R.Ohlendorf	Marlins	52.49%	53.10%	TBD
Indians	White Sox	J.Gomez vs M.Buehrle	White Sox	61.01%	58.43%	TBD
Padres	DBacks	M.Latos vs D.Hudson	DBacks	59.92%	57.77%	TBD
Orioles	Blue Jays	J.Guthrie vs B.Cecil	Blue Jays	58.59%	52.59%	TBD
Red Sox	Rays	J.Lackey vs W.Davis	Rays	50.62%	45.64%	TBD
Athletics	Rangers	B.McCarthy vs C.Lewis	Rangers	61.90%	57.57%	TBD
Phillies	Brewers	R.Halladay vs S.Marcum	Phillies	57.17%	56.30%	TBD
Braves	Cardinals	R.Delgado vs E.Jackson	Cardinals	55.06%	67.97%	TBD
Astros	Nationals	B.Norris vs T.Milone	Nationals	51.57%	58.82%	TBD
Reds	Rockies	H.Bailey vs J.Chacin	Rockies	56.99%	62.70%	TBD
Twins	Tigers	K.Slowey vs B.Penny	Tigers	60.08%	55.69%	TBD
Yankees	Angels	B.Colon vs J.Weaver	Angels	56.24%	49.73%	TBD
Royals	Mariners	J.Francis vs B.Beavan	Mariners	51.34%	47.83%	TBD

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July 20th Simulations

Kershcum ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Giants	C.Kershaw vs T.Lincecum	Giants	55.85%	54.59%	LAN 1-0
Cardinals	Mets	K.McClellan vs R.Dickey	Mets	51.10%	48.92%	NYN 6-5
Red Sox	Orioles	A.Miller vs J.Arrieta	Red Sox	52.94%	53.57%	BOS 4-0
Brewers	DBacks	C.Narveson vs J.Saunders	DBacks	50.86%	46.53%	MIL 5-2
Nationals	Astros	L.Hernandez vs B.Myers	Astros	52.49%	49.48%	HOU 3-2
White Sox	Royals	J.Danks vs B.Chen	White Sox	52.94%	51.19%	KC 2-1
Mariners	Blue Jays	J.Vargas vs B.Morrow	Blue Jays	60.40%	60.84%	TOR 11-6
Yankees	Rays	F.Garcia vs D.Price	Rays	57.72%	53.86%	NYA 4-0
Athletics	Tigers	B.McCarthy vs D.Below	Tigers	54.65%	54.75%	OAK 7-5
Reds	Pirates	J.Cueto vs J.Karstens	Reds	54.85%	57.88%	CIN 3-1
Padres	Marlins	A.Harang vs R.Nolasco	Marlins	58.59%	62.04%	SD 14-3
Rangers	Angels	D.Holland vs D.Haren	Angels	56.62%	51.70%	LAA 9-8
Indians	Twins	J.Tomlin vs N.Blackburn	Twins	52.49%	54.99%	MIN 7-5
Phillies	Cubs	V.Worley vs R.Dempster	Phillies	50.11%	45.34%	PHI 9-1
Braves	Rockies	T.Hudson vs J.Nicasio	Rockies	50.62%	58.22%	COL 3-2

Notes from today's Dodgers game: The over/under on today's game is 5.5 (O -117, U 107) is the 5th lowest over/under of the season so far from Vegas. According to the simulator it is the 27th lowest. The simulator says the OVER will hit 50.14% of the time, making this a very fair line.

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