October 16th Simulations

Brewers Looking To Hold Serve ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Cardinals	Brewers	E.Jackson vs S.Marcum	Brewers	55.06%	46.65%	STL 12-6

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Simulated 2011 NL West Projected Wins

Using my simulator to play out the 2011 schedules for NL West teams. Each game of each team's actual schedule was simulated 10,000 times. There is obviously some margin of error in these numbers. But they should be as good as anything anybody else puts out there.

Team	Wins	Losses	WPct
Giants	88.2	73.8	.544
Rockies	86.8	75.2	.536
Dodgers	85.2	76.8	.526
Padres	81.0	81.0	.500
Diamondbacks	68.9	93.1	.425

Notes: My simulator uses a proprietary set of player projections as input. It also takes into consideration defense, home field advantage, park factors, splits, bullpens, speed, among many other things.

NL Centra/East, Saves Over/Under

On the heels of the NL West saves over/under numbers, here are the saves over/unders for the NL Central and East. Once again, feel free to provide any feedback on numbers you feel are too high or low.

NL Centra/East

Player	Team	Saves Over/Under
Brandon Lyon	HOU	31.5
Wilton Lopez	HOU	2.5
Mark Melancon	HOU	2.5
Craig Kimbrel	ATL	21.5
Jonny Venters	ATL	9.5
John Axford	MIL	24.5
Takashi Saito	MIL	4.5
Ryan Franklin	STL	34.5
Jason Motte	STL	3.5
Carlos Marmol	CHC	40.5
Kerry Wood	CHC	2.5
Leo Nunez	FLA	32.5
Clay Hensley	FLA	4.5
Francisco Rodriguez	NYM	34.5
Bobby Parnell	NYM	3.5
Drew Storen	WAS	22.5
Sean Burnett	WAS	3.5
Tyler Clippard	WAS	3.5
Brad Lidge	PHI	36.5
Ryan Madson	PHI	3.5
Joel Hanrahan	PIT	20.5
Evan Meek	PIT	9.5
Francisco Cordero	CIN	24.5
Ardolis Chapman	CIN	7.5
Nick Masset	CIN	2.5

NL West Over/Under On Saves

There is a science behind baseball player projections. But one of the more difficult stats to project is one of the more important one for fantasy baseball enthusiasts and that is saves. Saves by itself is not a great indicator of a pitchers talent, but nonetheless it is important for this niche of fantasy baseball managers to have a good swag on how many saves a closer or closer in waiting will likely get. There is obviously a large margin of error on any projection of saves but a good over/under (or mean average) number shouldn't be too difficult to publish. I am beginning publishing some save over/under numbers, starting with the NL West. I would like to get as much feedback as possible, so these numbers can be as representative as possible of a "Vegas type" over/under number. Please provide your thoughts below.

NL West

Player	Team	Saves Over/Under
J.Broxton	LAD	34.5
H.Kuo	LAD	4.5
M.Guerrier	LAD	2.5
K.Jansen	LAD	2.5
B.Wilson	SF	41.5
S.Romo	SF	2.5
J.Affeldt	SF	2.5
J.Putz	ARI	26.5
J.Gutierrez	ARI	4.5
D.Hernandez	ARI	2.5
H.Street	COL	32.5
R.Betancourt	COL	4.5
M.Lindstrom	COL	2.5
M.Belisle	COL	2.5
H.Bell	SD	42.5
M.Adams	SD	2.5
L.Gregerson	SD	2.5