I am using my simulator that plays actual baseball games to find what it believes are the most optimal lineups for the 2015 Toronto Blue Jays. I started out with over 100,000 permutations of lineups and I slowly widdled it down to the top 50 lineups. For the starting nine players, I used the projected starting lineup from MLB Depth Charts The top 50 lineups all came within a half of a win per 162 games so really anything in that range is pretty good. When you start nearing a full win differential with the top lineup then you definitely have problems. You will see a few lineups that may seem strange in a most optimal list but keep in mind the simulator does not take into account psychological factors, such as rookies not being allowed to hit near the top of the lineup.bbThe simulator just takes the Steamer projection inputs along with a speed rating for base running and gives you the best lineups. Sure, the Blue Jays manager won't use many of these lineups because they might not be prototypical but that is not part of the exercise. I typically simulated each lineup over 1 million times which eliminated a large portion of the random noise and I did so only against a right handed pitcher. Below are a list of the top 50 lineups and a batting order spot frequency table, where you can see how many times each player appeared in each of the top 50 lineups.
Top 50 Lineups
| Rank | Lineup | Wins/162 Behind |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saunders-Pompey-Encarnacion-Bautista-Reyes-Izturis-Donaldson-Navarro-Martin | 0.000 |
| 2 | Izturis-Reyes-Encarnacion-Bautista-Saunders-Martin-Donaldson-Pompey-Navarro | 0.030 |
| 3 | Reyes-Saunders-Bautista-Encarnacion-Martin-Donaldson-Navarro-Pompey-Izturis | 0.038 |
| 4 | Saunders-Reyes-Bautista-Encarnacion-Donaldson-Pompey-Navarro-Izturis-Martin | 0.058 |
| 5 | Reyes-Saunders-Encarnacion-Bautista-Donaldson-Pompey-Izturis-Navarro-Martin | 0.070 |
| 6 | Reyes-Saunders-Bautista-Encarnacion-Donaldson-Pompey-Izturis-Navarro-Martin | 0.077 |
| 7 | Saunders-Pompey-Encarnacion-Bautista-Reyes-Izturis-Donaldson-Martin-Navarro | 0.079 |
| 8 | Saunders-Reyes-Izturis-Bautista-Encarnacion-Donaldson-Navarro-Martin-Pompey | 0.106 |
| 9 | Martin-Reyes-Encarnacion-Bautista-Saunders-Donaldson-Navarro-Pompey-Izturis | 0.125 |
| 10 | Bautista-Reyes-Encarnacion-Donaldson-Saunders-Pompey-Izturis-Navarro-Martin | 0.148 |
| 11 | Saunders-Donaldson-Encarnacion-Bautista-Reyes-Izturis-Pompey-Navarro-Martin | 0.158 |
| 12 | Saunders-Reyes-Encarnacion-Bautista-Izturis-Pompey-Navarro-Donaldson-Martin | 0.175 |
| 13 | Saunders-Reyes-Bautista-Encarnacion-Donaldson-Navarro-Martin-Izturis-Pompey | 0.181 |
| 14 | Saunders-Reyes-Izturis-Encarnacion-Bautista-Pompey-Navarro-Donaldson-Martin | 0.186 |
| 15 | Reyes-Saunders-Donaldson-Encarnacion-Bautista-Pompey-Navarro-Martin-Izturis | 0.197 |
| 16 | Pompey-Reyes-Izturis-Bautista-Encarnacion-Saunders-Donaldson-Navarro-Martin | 0.199 |
| 17 | Reyes-Encarnacion-Martin-Bautista-Saunders-Navarro-Donaldson-Pompey-Izturis | 0.201 |
| 18 | Izturis-Reyes-Encarnacion-Bautista-Donaldson-Saunders-Martin-Pompey-Navarro | 0.212 |
| 19 | Reyes-Izturis-Encarnacion-Bautista-Saunders-Navarro-Martin-Donaldson-Pompey | 0.214 |
| 20 | Saunders-Izturis-Martin-Bautista-Reyes-Encarnacion-Donaldson-Pompey-Navarro | 0.222 |
| 21 | Saunders-Reyes-Encarnacion-Bautista-Donaldson-Navarro-Martin-Izturis-Pompey | 0.226 |
| 22 | Reyes-Saunders-Bautista-Encarnacion-Donaldson-Pompey-Martin-Izturis-Navarro | 0.228 |
| 23 | Saunders-Reyes-Bautista-Encarnacion-Donaldson-Pompey-Izturis-Martin-Navarro | 0.239 |
| 24 | Reyes-Saunders-Encarnacion-Bautista-Martin-Donaldson-Izturis-Pompey-Navarro | 0.240 |
| 25 | Reyes-Saunders-Bautista-Encarnacion-Donaldson-Navarro-Pompey-Izturis-Martin | 0.240 |
| 26 | Reyes-Encarnacion-Martin-Bautista-Donaldson-Pompey-Navarro-Saunders-Izturis | 0.249 |
| 27 | Saunders-Pompey-Bautista-Encarnacion-Reyes-Izturis-Navarro-Donaldson-Martin | 0.254 |
| 28 | Reyes-Saunders-Martin-Encarnacion-Bautista-Navarro-Donaldson-Pompey-Izturis | 0.265 |
| 29 | Saunders-Reyes-Martin-Encarnacion-Bautista-Pompey-Donaldson-Izturis-Navarro | 0.275 |
| 30 | Pompey-Reyes-Bautista-Encarnacion-Donaldson-Martin-Saunders-Navarro-Izturis | 0.281 |
| 31 | Saunders-Martin-Encarnacion-Bautista-Reyes-Donaldson-Izturis-Navarro-Pompey | 0.291 |
| 32 | Donaldson-Pompey-Bautista-Saunders-Reyes-Izturis-Encarnacion-Navarro-Martin | 0.293 |
| 33 | Reyes-Saunders-Encarnacion-Donaldson-Bautista-Pompey-Izturis-Navarro-Martin | 0.296 |
| 34 | Saunders-Reyes-Izturis-Encarnacion-Donaldson-Martin-Bautista-Pompey-Navarro | 0.300 |
| 35 | Saunders-Pompey-Bautista-Encarnacion-Martin-Donaldson-Reyes-Navarro-Izturis | 0.301 |
| 36 | Bautista-Saunders-Encarnacion-Donaldson-Reyes-Martin-Pompey-Navarro-Izturis | 0.309 |
| 37 | Reyes-Saunders-Bautista-Donaldson-Encarnacion-Pompey-Izturis-Navarro-Martin | 0.310 |
| 38 | Donaldson-Reyes-Bautista-Encarnacion-Saunders-Pompey-Navarro-Martin-Izturis | 0.313 |
| 39 | Encarnacion-Donaldson-Martin-Bautista-Reyes-Saunders-Izturis-Navarro-Pompey | 0.333 |
| 40 | Pompey-Martin-Encarnacion-Bautista-Saunders-Reyes-Izturis-Donaldson-Navarro | 0.338 |
| 41 | Bautista-Saunders-Martin-Encarnacion-Reyes-Donaldson-Pompey-Navarro-Izturis | 0.338 |
| 42 | Izturis-Saunders-Encarnacion-Bautista-Reyes-Pompey-Donaldson-Navarro-Martin | 0.340 |
| 43 | Reyes-Martin-Encarnacion-Bautista-Donaldson-Pompey-Saunders-Navarro-Izturis | 0.352 |
| 44 | Encarnacion-Reyes-Bautista-Donaldson-Saunders-Pompey-Navarro-Martin-Izturis | 0.362 |
| 45 | Reyes-Navarro-Encarnacion-Bautista-Saunders-Donaldson-Izturis-Pompey-Martin | 0.362 |
| 46 | Encarnacion-Saunders-Donaldson-Bautista-Reyes-Martin-Izturis-Navarro-Pompey | 0.363 |
| 47 | Donaldson-Saunders-Izturis-Bautista-Reyes-Pompey-Encarnacion-Navarro-Martin | 0.367 |
| 48 | Donaldson-Saunders-Izturis-Bautista-Reyes-Encarnacion-Pompey-Navarro-Martin | 0.394 |
| 49 | Reyes-Donaldson-Martin-Bautista-Saunders-Encarnacion-Pompey-Navarro-Izturis | 0.417 |
| 50 | Bautista-Reyes-Izturis-Encarnacion-Donaldson-Saunders-Martin-Navarro-Pompey | 0.442 |
| .. | ||
| BAD | Navarro-Izturis-Reyes-Saunders-Pompey-Martin-Donaldson-Encarnacion-Bautista | 2.125 |
Batting Order Frequency Table
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th | 9th | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saunders | 16 | 16 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Reyes | 16 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Encarnacion | 3 | 2 | 19 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Bautista | 4 | 0 | 14 | 26 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Donaldson | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 0 |
| Pompey | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 8 |
| Izturis | 3 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 6 | 14 |
| Navarro | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 11 | 22 | 10 |
| Martin | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 18 |
.
Synergy
20 Most Common Back to Back Occurrences
| Rank | Occurrences | Player 1 | Player 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20 | Encarnacion | Bautista |
| 2 | 19 | Navarro | Martin |
| 3 | 17 | Pompey | Navarro |
| 4 | 15 | Encarnacion | Donaldson |
| 5 | 14 | Donaldson | Pompey |
| 6 | 13 | Bautista | Encarnacion |
| 7 | 12 | Reyes | Izturis |
| 8 | 12 | Bautista | Reyes |
| 9 | 11 | Saunders | Reyes |
| 10 | 11 | Reyes | Saunders |
| 11 | 11 | Pompey | Izturis |
| 12 | 11 | Izturis | Navarro |
| 13 | 10 | Reyes | Encarnacion |
| 14 | 10 | Bautista | Saunders |
| 15 | 10 | Donaldson | Navarro |
| 16 | 9 | Izturis | Reyes |
| 17 | 9 | Navarro | Izturis |
| 18 | 8 | Donaldson | Martin |
| 19 | 8 | Navarro | Pompey |
| 20 | 8 | Martin | Donaldson |
| 20 | 8 | Martin | Izturis |
20 Most Common Back to Back to Back Occurrences
| Rank | Occurrences | Player 1 | Player 2 | Player 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | Bautista | Encarnacion | Donaldson |
| 2 | 6 | Donaldson | Navarro | Martin |
| 3 | 6 | Pompey | Navarro | Izturis |
| 4 | 6 | Navarro | Martin | Izturis |
| 5 | 5 | Saunders | Reyes | Izturis |
| 6 | 5 | Reyes | Saunders | Bautista |
| 7 | 5 | Reyes | Encarnacion | Bautista |
| 8 | 5 | Reyes | Bautista | Encarnacion |
| 9 | 5 | Reyes | Izturis | Encarnacion |
| 10 | 5 | Encarnacion | Bautista | Saunders |
| 11 | 5 | Encarnacion | Bautista | Reyes |
| 12 | 5 | Encarnacion | Donaldson | Pompey |
| 13 | 5 | Donaldson | Pompey | Izturis |
| 14 | 5 | Donaldson | Pompey | Navarro |
| 15 | 5 | Pompey | Izturis | Navarro |
| 16 | 5 | Pompey | Navarro | Martin |
| 17 | 5 | Izturis | Navarro | Martin |
| 18 | 5 | Martin | Reyes | Saunders |
| 19 | 5 | Martin | Encarnacion | Bautista |
| 20 | 4 | Saunders | Bautista | Encarnacion |
Analysis
Saunders: Hits left-handed and does well against RHP. Has decent speed and power and the simulator likes him hitting either first or second and can live with him hitting fifth as well.Reyes: Switch hitter with good speed and doesn't strike-out a lot. Has a nearly identical lineup profile as Saunders does.
Encarnacion: Good power and draws a nice amount of walks. The simulator likes him hitting either third or fourth but also makes an appearance at each lineup spot 1 thru 7.
Bautista: Great power and draws a lot of walks. Here is your cleanup hitter. If not cleanup can also fit in as the #3 hitter.
Donaldson: Like many of the players to follow, the simulator shows Donaldson with a lot of lineup position diversity. His best spot is fifth but also shines at 6th and 7th. Donaldson hits for good power but doesn't hit RHP real well (compared to LHP).
Pompey: Good speed and will clear the bases with an occasional triple. The simulator likes him hitting 6th the most but can find a good lineup to fit in at any of the non traditional power spots (3-4-5).
Izturis: Doesn't do anything real well on the offensive side but the simulator find him doing the least amount of damage batting either ninth or seventh and surprisingly finds his way to the third spot in seven of the top fifty lineups.
Navarro: Definitely the turtle of the team, the simulator likes him batting 8th though it can live with him in the sixth thru ninth spots. While a switch hitter, Navarro does much better historically against LHP.
Martin: Makes three appearances in seven different lineup spots on the top fifty lineup chart. Though the simulator does like Martin hitting 9th, almost as a second leadoff hitter.
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