Tuesday, February 10, 2015

Toronto Blue Jays - 2015 Most Optimal Lineups

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I am using my simulator that plays actual baseball games to find what it believes are the most optimal lineups for the 2015 Toronto Blue Jays.  I started out with over 100,000 permutations of lineups and I slowly widdled it down to the top 50 lineups. For the starting nine players, I used the projected starting lineup from MLB Depth Charts The top 50 lineups all came within a half of a win per 162 games so really anything in that range is pretty good.  When you start nearing a full win differential with the top lineup then you definitely have problems.  You will see a few lineups that may seem strange in a most optimal list but keep in mind the simulator does not take into account psychological factors, such as rookies not being allowed to hit near the top of the lineup.bbThe simulator just takes the Steamer projection inputs along with a speed rating for base running and gives you the best lineups. Sure, the Blue Jays manager won't use many of these lineups because they might not be prototypical but that is not part of the exercise.  I typically simulated each lineup over 1 million times which eliminated a large portion of the random noise and I did so only against a right handed pitcher.  Below are a list of the top 50 lineups and a batting order spot frequency table, where you can see how many times each player appeared in each of the top 50 lineups.

                                                          Top 50 Lineups
RankLineupWins/162 Behind
1Saunders-Pompey-Encarnacion-Bautista-Reyes-Izturis-Donaldson-Navarro-Martin0.000
2Izturis-Reyes-Encarnacion-Bautista-Saunders-Martin-Donaldson-Pompey-Navarro0.030
3Reyes-Saunders-Bautista-Encarnacion-Martin-Donaldson-Navarro-Pompey-Izturis0.038
4Saunders-Reyes-Bautista-Encarnacion-Donaldson-Pompey-Navarro-Izturis-Martin0.058
5Reyes-Saunders-Encarnacion-Bautista-Donaldson-Pompey-Izturis-Navarro-Martin0.070
6Reyes-Saunders-Bautista-Encarnacion-Donaldson-Pompey-Izturis-Navarro-Martin0.077
7Saunders-Pompey-Encarnacion-Bautista-Reyes-Izturis-Donaldson-Martin-Navarro0.079
8Saunders-Reyes-Izturis-Bautista-Encarnacion-Donaldson-Navarro-Martin-Pompey0.106
9Martin-Reyes-Encarnacion-Bautista-Saunders-Donaldson-Navarro-Pompey-Izturis0.125
10Bautista-Reyes-Encarnacion-Donaldson-Saunders-Pompey-Izturis-Navarro-Martin0.148
11Saunders-Donaldson-Encarnacion-Bautista-Reyes-Izturis-Pompey-Navarro-Martin0.158
12Saunders-Reyes-Encarnacion-Bautista-Izturis-Pompey-Navarro-Donaldson-Martin0.175
13Saunders-Reyes-Bautista-Encarnacion-Donaldson-Navarro-Martin-Izturis-Pompey0.181
14Saunders-Reyes-Izturis-Encarnacion-Bautista-Pompey-Navarro-Donaldson-Martin0.186
15Reyes-Saunders-Donaldson-Encarnacion-Bautista-Pompey-Navarro-Martin-Izturis0.197
16Pompey-Reyes-Izturis-Bautista-Encarnacion-Saunders-Donaldson-Navarro-Martin0.199
17Reyes-Encarnacion-Martin-Bautista-Saunders-Navarro-Donaldson-Pompey-Izturis0.201
18Izturis-Reyes-Encarnacion-Bautista-Donaldson-Saunders-Martin-Pompey-Navarro0.212
19Reyes-Izturis-Encarnacion-Bautista-Saunders-Navarro-Martin-Donaldson-Pompey0.214
20Saunders-Izturis-Martin-Bautista-Reyes-Encarnacion-Donaldson-Pompey-Navarro0.222
21Saunders-Reyes-Encarnacion-Bautista-Donaldson-Navarro-Martin-Izturis-Pompey0.226
22Reyes-Saunders-Bautista-Encarnacion-Donaldson-Pompey-Martin-Izturis-Navarro0.228
23Saunders-Reyes-Bautista-Encarnacion-Donaldson-Pompey-Izturis-Martin-Navarro0.239
24Reyes-Saunders-Encarnacion-Bautista-Martin-Donaldson-Izturis-Pompey-Navarro0.240
25Reyes-Saunders-Bautista-Encarnacion-Donaldson-Navarro-Pompey-Izturis-Martin0.240
26Reyes-Encarnacion-Martin-Bautista-Donaldson-Pompey-Navarro-Saunders-Izturis0.249
27Saunders-Pompey-Bautista-Encarnacion-Reyes-Izturis-Navarro-Donaldson-Martin0.254
28Reyes-Saunders-Martin-Encarnacion-Bautista-Navarro-Donaldson-Pompey-Izturis0.265
29Saunders-Reyes-Martin-Encarnacion-Bautista-Pompey-Donaldson-Izturis-Navarro0.275
30Pompey-Reyes-Bautista-Encarnacion-Donaldson-Martin-Saunders-Navarro-Izturis0.281
31Saunders-Martin-Encarnacion-Bautista-Reyes-Donaldson-Izturis-Navarro-Pompey0.291
32Donaldson-Pompey-Bautista-Saunders-Reyes-Izturis-Encarnacion-Navarro-Martin0.293
33Reyes-Saunders-Encarnacion-Donaldson-Bautista-Pompey-Izturis-Navarro-Martin0.296
34Saunders-Reyes-Izturis-Encarnacion-Donaldson-Martin-Bautista-Pompey-Navarro0.300
35Saunders-Pompey-Bautista-Encarnacion-Martin-Donaldson-Reyes-Navarro-Izturis0.301
36Bautista-Saunders-Encarnacion-Donaldson-Reyes-Martin-Pompey-Navarro-Izturis0.309
37Reyes-Saunders-Bautista-Donaldson-Encarnacion-Pompey-Izturis-Navarro-Martin0.310
38Donaldson-Reyes-Bautista-Encarnacion-Saunders-Pompey-Navarro-Martin-Izturis0.313
39Encarnacion-Donaldson-Martin-Bautista-Reyes-Saunders-Izturis-Navarro-Pompey0.333
40Pompey-Martin-Encarnacion-Bautista-Saunders-Reyes-Izturis-Donaldson-Navarro0.338
41Bautista-Saunders-Martin-Encarnacion-Reyes-Donaldson-Pompey-Navarro-Izturis0.338
42Izturis-Saunders-Encarnacion-Bautista-Reyes-Pompey-Donaldson-Navarro-Martin0.340
43Reyes-Martin-Encarnacion-Bautista-Donaldson-Pompey-Saunders-Navarro-Izturis0.352
44Encarnacion-Reyes-Bautista-Donaldson-Saunders-Pompey-Navarro-Martin-Izturis0.362
45Reyes-Navarro-Encarnacion-Bautista-Saunders-Donaldson-Izturis-Pompey-Martin0.362
46Encarnacion-Saunders-Donaldson-Bautista-Reyes-Martin-Izturis-Navarro-Pompey0.363
47Donaldson-Saunders-Izturis-Bautista-Reyes-Pompey-Encarnacion-Navarro-Martin0.367
48Donaldson-Saunders-Izturis-Bautista-Reyes-Encarnacion-Pompey-Navarro-Martin0.394
49Reyes-Donaldson-Martin-Bautista-Saunders-Encarnacion-Pompey-Navarro-Izturis0.417
50Bautista-Reyes-Izturis-Encarnacion-Donaldson-Saunders-Martin-Navarro-Pompey0.442
..  
BADNavarro-Izturis-Reyes-Saunders-Pompey-Martin-Donaldson-Encarnacion-Bautista2.125

              Batting Order Frequency Table
1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th
Saunders161601104210
Reyes161800141100
Encarnacion32191833200
Bautista40142650100
Donaldson4325148950
Pompey35000186108
Izturis32701512614
Navarro010006112210
Martin1380356618
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Synergy

20 Most Common Back to Back Occurrences
RankOccurrencesPlayer 1Player 2
120EncarnacionBautista
219NavarroMartin
317PompeyNavarro
415EncarnacionDonaldson
514DonaldsonPompey
613BautistaEncarnacion
712ReyesIzturis
812BautistaReyes
911SaundersReyes
1011ReyesSaunders
1111PompeyIzturis
1211IzturisNavarro
1310ReyesEncarnacion
1410BautistaSaunders
1510DonaldsonNavarro
169IzturisReyes
179NavarroIzturis
188DonaldsonMartin
198NavarroPompey
208MartinDonaldson
208MartinIzturis

20 Most Common Back to Back to Back Occurrences
RankOccurrencesPlayer 1Player 2Player 3
18BautistaEncarnacionDonaldson
26DonaldsonNavarroMartin
36PompeyNavarroIzturis
46NavarroMartinIzturis
55SaundersReyesIzturis
65ReyesSaundersBautista
75ReyesEncarnacionBautista
85ReyesBautistaEncarnacion
95ReyesIzturisEncarnacion
105EncarnacionBautistaSaunders
115EncarnacionBautistaReyes
125EncarnacionDonaldsonPompey
135DonaldsonPompeyIzturis
145DonaldsonPompeyNavarro
155PompeyIzturisNavarro
165PompeyNavarroMartin
175IzturisNavarroMartin
185MartinReyesSaunders
195MartinEncarnacionBautista
204SaundersBautistaEncarnacion

                                 Analysis

Saunders:  Hits left-handed and does well against RHP.  Has decent speed and power and the simulator likes him hitting either first or second and can live with him hitting fifth as well.

Reyes:  Switch hitter with good speed and doesn't strike-out a lot.  Has a nearly identical lineup profile as Saunders does.

Encarnacion:  Good power and draws a nice amount of walks.  The simulator likes him hitting either third or fourth but also makes an appearance at each lineup spot 1 thru 7.

Bautista:  Great power and draws a lot of walks.  Here is your cleanup hitter.  If not cleanup can also fit in as the #3 hitter.

Donaldson:  Like many of the players to follow, the simulator shows Donaldson with a lot of lineup position diversity.  His best spot is fifth but also shines at 6th and 7th.  Donaldson hits for good power but doesn't hit RHP real well (compared to LHP).

Pompey:  Good speed and will clear the bases with an occasional triple.  The simulator likes him hitting 6th the most but can find a good lineup to fit in at any of the non traditional power spots (3-4-5).

Izturis:  Doesn't do anything real well on the offensive side but the simulator find him doing the least amount of damage batting either ninth or seventh and surprisingly finds his way to the third spot in seven of the top fifty lineups.

Navarro:  Definitely the turtle of the team, the simulator likes him batting 8th though it can live with him in the sixth thru ninth spots.  While a switch hitter, Navarro does much better historically against LHP.

Martin:  Makes three appearances in seven different lineup spots on the top fifty lineup chart.  Though the simulator does like Martin hitting 9th, almost as a second leadoff hitter.

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