I am using my simulator that plays actual baseball games to find what it believes are the most optimal lineups for the 2015 Minnesota Twins. I started out with 25,000 almost random lineups and I slowly widdled it down to the top 50 lineups. Almost random, because I filtered out some obvious things like batting Joe Mauer 8th or 9th etc... For the starting nine players, I used the projected starting lineup from MLB Depth Charts The top 50 lineups all came within 0.35 wins per 162 games so really anything in that range is pretty good. When you start nearing a full win differential with the top lineup then you definitely have problems and the projected lineup from MLB Depth Charts finished 0.59 wins/162 games behind (not bad). You will see a few lineups that may seem strange in a most optimal list but keep in mind the simulator does not take into account psychological factors, such as rookies not being allowed to hit near the top of the lineup. The simulator just takes the Steamer projection inputs along with a speed rating for base running and gives you the best lineups. This exercise is NOT trying to project what lineups the Twins manager might or will actually use it is just outputting what it thinks are the best lineups. I typically simulated each lineup over 1 million times which eliminated a large portion of the random noise and I did so only against a right handed pitcher. Below are a list of the top 50 lineups and a batting order spot frequency table, where you can see how many times each player appeared in each of the top 50 lineups. The Twins have two left handed batters in the starting nine that I used. For this exercise, I assumed that there was no restriction on batting the two left handed batters (Mauer, Arcia) back to back. Obviously, if you add that restriction then 33 of these 50 lineups would be different.
Top 50 Lineups (vs RHP)
| Rank | Lineup | Wins/162 Games Behind |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Hunter-Plouffe-Hicks-Suzuki-Dozier | 0 |
| 2 | Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Hunter-Plouffe-Hicks-Suzuki-Dozier | 0.013 |
| 3 | Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Hunter-Dozier-Plouffe-Suzuki-Hicks | 0.018 |
| 4 | Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Dozier-Suzuki-Plouffe-Hicks-Hunter | 0.027 |
| 5 | Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Plouffe-Hunter-Hicks-Suzuki-Dozier | 0.033 |
| 6 | Dozier-Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Hicks-Suzuki-Plouffe-Hunter | 0.048 |
| 7 | Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Dozier-Hunter-Plouffe-Hicks-Suzuki | 0.055 |
| 8 | Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Plouffe-Hicks-Hunter-Dozier-Suzuki | 0.061 |
| 9 | Hunter-Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Dozier-Plouffe-Suzuki-Hicks | 0.087 |
| 10 | Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Hunter-Hicks-Plouffe-Suzuki-Dozier | 0.097 |
| 11 | Dozier-Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Hunter-Hicks-Suzuki-Plouffe | 0.101 |
| 12 | Hicks-Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Hunter-Plouffe-Dozier-Suzuki | 0.105 |
| 13 | Dozier-Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Hicks-Hunter-Plouffe-Suzuki | 0.106 |
| 14 | Dozier-Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Plouffe-Hunter-Suzuki-Hicks | 0.109 |
| 15 | Dozier-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Hicks-Santana-Suzuki-Hunter-Plouffe | 0.113 |
| 16 | Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Plouffe-Dozier-Suzuki-Hicks-Hunter | 0.117 |
| 17 | Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Hicks-Suzuki-Plouffe-Dozier-Hunter | 0.119 |
| 18 | Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Hicks-Plouffe-Dozier-Suzuki-Hunter | 0.120 |
| 19 | Santana-Hunter-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Dozier-Plouffe-Suzuki-Hicks | 0.123 |
| 20 | Santana-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Hunter-Dozier-Suzuki-Plouffe-Hicks | 0.136 |
| 21 | Santana-Suzuki-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Plouffe-Hunter-Dozier-Hicks | 0.143 |
| 22 | Hunter-Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Plouffe-Hicks-Dozier-Suzuki | 0.147 |
| 23 | Santana-Hunter-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Dozier-Plouffe-Hicks-Suzuki | 0.151 |
| 24 | Hunter-Santana-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Plouffe-Hicks-Suzuki-Dozier | 0.155 |
| 25 | Santana-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Hicks-Suzuki-Hunter-Plouffe-Dozier | 0.160 |
| 26 | Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Hicks-Dozier-Suzuki-Plouffe-Hunter | 0.161 |
| 27 | Santana-Hunter-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Plouffe-Dozier-Suzuki-Hicks | 0.183 |
| 28 | Hicks-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Dozier-Santana-Suzuki-Plouffe-Hunter | 0.186 |
| 29 | Hunter-Santana-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Plouffe-Suzuki-Hicks-Dozier | 0.193 |
| 30 | Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Dozier-Suzuki-Hicks-Plouffe-Hunter | 0.197 |
| 31 | Santana-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Dozier-Hicks-Hunter-Plouffe-Suzuki | 0.200 |
| 32 | Santana-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Dozier-Hunter-Suzuki-Hicks-Plouffe | 0.209 |
| 33 | Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Hunter-Arcia-Plouffe-Dozier-Suzuki-Hicks | 0.211 |
| 34 | Hicks-Santana-Hunter-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Dozier-Suzuki-Plouffe | 0.222 |
| 35 | Santana-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Hicks-Plouffe-Hunter-Dozier-Suzuki | 0.226 |
| 36 | Dozier-Santana-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Plouffe-Suzuki-Hunter-Hicks | 0.229 |
| 37 | Santana-Vargas-Hunter-Mauer-Arcia-Hicks-Plouffe-Dozier-Suzuki | 0.230 |
| 38 | Arcia-Santana-Vargas-Mauer-Dozier-Hunter-Hicks-Suzuki-Plouffe | 0.231 |
| 39 | Santana-Hunter-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Hicks-Plouffe-Dozier-Suzuki | 0.236 |
| 40 | Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Dozier-Arcia-Hunter-Plouffe-Suzuki-Hicks | 0.242 |
| 41 | Santana-Hunter-Mauer-Arcia-Dozier-Vargas-Hicks-Plouffe-Suzuki | 0.242 |
| 42 | Santana-Suzuki-Mauer-Arcia-Plouffe-Vargas-Hunter-Dozier-Hicks | 0.247 |
| 43 | Santana-Hunter-Arcia-Mauer-Vargas-Plouffe-Dozier-Hicks-Suzuki | 0.254 |
| 44 | Santana-Dozier-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Hunter-Plouffe-Hicks-Suzuki | 0.263 |
| 45 | Hunter-Dozier-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Santana-Suzuki-Plouffe-Hicks | 0.272 |
| 46 | Dozier-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Santana-Hunter-Suzuki-Plouffe-Hicks | 0.277 |
| 47 | Santana-Suzuki-Mauer-Vargas-Hicks-Arcia-Plouffe-Dozier-Hunter | 0.282 |
| 48 | Dozier-Hicks-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Santana-Hunter-Suzuki-Plouffe | 0.290 |
| 49 | Hicks-Dozier-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Santana-Hunter-Plouffe-Suzuki | 0.299 |
| 50 | Santana-Hunter-Mauer-Arcia-Dozier-Vargas-Suzuki-Hicks-Plouffe | 0.345 |
| .. | .. | .. |
| MLB | Santana-Dozier-Mauer-Vargas-Hunter-Plouffe-Arcia-Suzuki-Hicks | 0.587 |
| BAD | Suzuki-Plouffe-Hicks-Dozier-Santana-Arcia-Vargas-Hunter-Mauer | 1.714 |
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Batting Order Frequency Table
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th | 9th | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santana | 32 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mauer | 0 | 18 | 20 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Arcia | 1 | 0 | 9 | 23 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vargas | 0 | 6 | 19 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Hunter | 5 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 2 | 9 |
| Plouffe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 14 | 12 | 7 |
| Hicks | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 13 |
| Suzuki | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 17 | 14 |
| Dozier | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 7 |
.
Synergy
20 Most Common Back to Back Occurrences
| Rank | Occurrences | Player 1 | Player 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33 | Mauer | Arcia |
| 2 | 22 | Santana | Mauer |
| 3 | 16 | Mauer | Vargas |
| 4 | 16 | Arcia | Vargas |
| 5 | 15 | Dozier | Suzuki |
| 6 | 14 | Vargas | Mauer |
| 7 | 14 | Plouffe | Dozier |
| 8 | 14 | Suzuki | Hicks |
| 9 | 13 | Plouffe | Hicks |
| 10 | 13 | Hicks | Suzuki |
| 11 | 12 | Vargas | Arcia |
| 12 | 12 | Suzuki | Plouffe |
| 13 | 11 | Santana | Hunter |
| 14 | 11 | Hunter | Santana |
| 15 | 11 | Hunter | Plouffe |
| 16 | 11 | Plouffe | Suzuki |
| 17 | 11 | Hicks | Santana |
| 18 | 11 | Dozier | Santana |
| 19 | 10 | Santana | Vargas |
| 20 | 10 | Arcia | Plouffe |
| 20 | 10 | Suzuki | Santana |
20 Most Common Back to Back to Back Occurrences
| Rank | Occurrences | Player 1 | Player 2 | Player 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16 | Mauer | Arcia | Vargas |
| 2 | 13 | Vargas | Mauer | Arcia |
| 3 | 12 | Mauer | Vargas | Arcia |
| 4 | 11 | Santana | Mauer | Arcia |
| 5 | 11 | Santana | Mauer | Vargas |
| 6 | 9 | Santana | Vargas | Mauer |
| 7 | 8 | Hunter | Santana | Mauer |
| 8 | 8 | Dozier | Santana | Mauer |
| 9 | 7 | Plouffe | Dozier | Suzuki |
| 10 | 6 | Mauer | Arcia | Dozier |
| 11 | 6 | Plouffe | Hicks | Suzuki |
| 12 | 6 | Plouffe | Suzuki | Hicks |
| 13 | 6 | Suzuki | Hicks | Santana |
| 14 | 5 | Mauer | Arcia | Plouffe |
| 15 | 5 | Hunter | Mauer | Arcia |
| 16 | 5 | Suzuki | Plouffe | Hicks |
| 17 | 5 | Suzuki | Dozier | Santana |
| 18 | 5 | Dozier | Suzuki | Hicks |
| 19 | 4 | Santana | Hunter | Mauer |
| 20 | 4 | Arcia | Vargas | Hunter |
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