Sunday, February 15, 2015

Minnesota Twins - 2015 Most Optimal Lineups

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I am using my simulator that plays actual baseball games to find what it believes are the most optimal lineups for the 2015 Minnesota Twins.  I started out with 25,000 almost random lineups and I slowly widdled it down to the top 50 lineups.  Almost random, because I filtered out some obvious things like batting Joe Mauer 8th or 9th etc...  For the starting nine players, I used the projected starting lineup from MLB Depth Charts The top 50 lineups all came within 0.35 wins per 162 games so really anything in that range is pretty good.  When you start nearing a full win differential with the top lineup then you definitely have problems and the projected lineup from MLB Depth Charts finished 0.59 wins/162 games behind (not bad).  You will see a few lineups that may seem strange in a most optimal list but keep in mind the simulator does not take into account psychological factors, such as rookies not being allowed to hit near the top of the lineup.  The simulator just takes the Steamer projection inputs along with a speed rating for base running and gives you the best lineups. This exercise is NOT trying to project what lineups the Twins manager might or will actually use it is just outputting what it thinks are the best lineups.  I typically simulated each lineup over 1 million times which eliminated a large portion of the random noise and I did so only against a right handed pitcher.  Below are a list of the top 50 lineups and a batting order spot frequency table, where you can see how many times each player appeared in each of the top 50 lineups.  The Twins have two left handed batters in the starting nine that I used.  For this exercise, I assumed that there was no restriction on batting the two left handed batters (Mauer, Arcia) back to back.  Obviously, if you add that restriction then 33 of these 50 lineups would be different.

                                               Top 50 Lineups (vs RHP)
RankLineupWins/162 Games Behind
1Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Hunter-Plouffe-Hicks-Suzuki-Dozier0
2Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Hunter-Plouffe-Hicks-Suzuki-Dozier0.013
3Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Hunter-Dozier-Plouffe-Suzuki-Hicks0.018
4Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Dozier-Suzuki-Plouffe-Hicks-Hunter0.027
5Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Plouffe-Hunter-Hicks-Suzuki-Dozier0.033
6Dozier-Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Hicks-Suzuki-Plouffe-Hunter0.048
7Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Dozier-Hunter-Plouffe-Hicks-Suzuki0.055
8Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Plouffe-Hicks-Hunter-Dozier-Suzuki0.061
9Hunter-Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Dozier-Plouffe-Suzuki-Hicks0.087
10Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Hunter-Hicks-Plouffe-Suzuki-Dozier0.097
11Dozier-Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Hunter-Hicks-Suzuki-Plouffe0.101
12Hicks-Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Hunter-Plouffe-Dozier-Suzuki0.105
13Dozier-Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Hicks-Hunter-Plouffe-Suzuki0.106
14Dozier-Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Plouffe-Hunter-Suzuki-Hicks0.109
15Dozier-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Hicks-Santana-Suzuki-Hunter-Plouffe0.113
16Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Plouffe-Dozier-Suzuki-Hicks-Hunter0.117
17Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Hicks-Suzuki-Plouffe-Dozier-Hunter0.119
18Santana-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Hicks-Plouffe-Dozier-Suzuki-Hunter0.120
19Santana-Hunter-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Dozier-Plouffe-Suzuki-Hicks0.123
20Santana-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Hunter-Dozier-Suzuki-Plouffe-Hicks0.136
21Santana-Suzuki-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Plouffe-Hunter-Dozier-Hicks0.143
22Hunter-Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Plouffe-Hicks-Dozier-Suzuki0.147
23Santana-Hunter-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Dozier-Plouffe-Hicks-Suzuki0.151
24Hunter-Santana-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Plouffe-Hicks-Suzuki-Dozier0.155
25Santana-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Hicks-Suzuki-Hunter-Plouffe-Dozier0.160
26Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Hicks-Dozier-Suzuki-Plouffe-Hunter0.161
27Santana-Hunter-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Plouffe-Dozier-Suzuki-Hicks0.183
28Hicks-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Dozier-Santana-Suzuki-Plouffe-Hunter0.186
29Hunter-Santana-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Plouffe-Suzuki-Hicks-Dozier0.193
30Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Dozier-Suzuki-Hicks-Plouffe-Hunter0.197
31Santana-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Dozier-Hicks-Hunter-Plouffe-Suzuki0.200
32Santana-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Dozier-Hunter-Suzuki-Hicks-Plouffe0.209
33Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Hunter-Arcia-Plouffe-Dozier-Suzuki-Hicks0.211
34Hicks-Santana-Hunter-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Dozier-Suzuki-Plouffe0.222
35Santana-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Hicks-Plouffe-Hunter-Dozier-Suzuki0.226
36Dozier-Santana-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Plouffe-Suzuki-Hunter-Hicks0.229
37Santana-Vargas-Hunter-Mauer-Arcia-Hicks-Plouffe-Dozier-Suzuki0.230
38Arcia-Santana-Vargas-Mauer-Dozier-Hunter-Hicks-Suzuki-Plouffe0.231
39Santana-Hunter-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Hicks-Plouffe-Dozier-Suzuki0.236
40Santana-Mauer-Vargas-Dozier-Arcia-Hunter-Plouffe-Suzuki-Hicks0.242
41Santana-Hunter-Mauer-Arcia-Dozier-Vargas-Hicks-Plouffe-Suzuki0.242
42Santana-Suzuki-Mauer-Arcia-Plouffe-Vargas-Hunter-Dozier-Hicks0.247
43Santana-Hunter-Arcia-Mauer-Vargas-Plouffe-Dozier-Hicks-Suzuki0.254
44Santana-Dozier-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Hunter-Plouffe-Hicks-Suzuki0.263
45Hunter-Dozier-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Santana-Suzuki-Plouffe-Hicks0.272
46Dozier-Mauer-Arcia-Vargas-Santana-Hunter-Suzuki-Plouffe-Hicks0.277
47Santana-Suzuki-Mauer-Vargas-Hicks-Arcia-Plouffe-Dozier-Hunter0.282
48Dozier-Hicks-Mauer-Vargas-Arcia-Santana-Hunter-Suzuki-Plouffe0.290
49Hicks-Dozier-Vargas-Mauer-Arcia-Santana-Hunter-Plouffe-Suzuki0.299
50Santana-Hunter-Mauer-Arcia-Dozier-Vargas-Suzuki-Hicks-Plouffe0.345
......
MLBSantana-Dozier-Mauer-Vargas-Hunter-Plouffe-Arcia-Suzuki-Hicks0.587
BADSuzuki-Plouffe-Hicks-Dozier-Santana-Arcia-Vargas-Hunter-Mauer1.714
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           Batting Order Frequency Table
1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th
Santana32120015000
Mauer018201200000
Arcia10923161000
Vargas06191384000
Hunter5721591029
Plouffe000041314127
Hicks4100779913
Suzuki030004121714
Dozier8301975107
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Synergy

20 Most Common Back to Back Occurrences
RankOccurrencesPlayer 1Player 2
133MauerArcia
222SantanaMauer
316MauerVargas
416ArciaVargas
515DozierSuzuki
614VargasMauer
714PlouffeDozier
814SuzukiHicks
913PlouffeHicks
1013HicksSuzuki
1112VargasArcia
1212SuzukiPlouffe
1311SantanaHunter
1411HunterSantana
1511HunterPlouffe
1611PlouffeSuzuki
1711HicksSantana
1811DozierSantana
1910SantanaVargas
2010ArciaPlouffe
2010SuzukiSantana

20 Most Common Back to Back to Back Occurrences
RankOccurrencesPlayer 1Player 2Player 3
116MauerArciaVargas
213VargasMauerArcia
312MauerVargasArcia
411SantanaMauerArcia
511SantanaMauerVargas
69SantanaVargasMauer
78HunterSantanaMauer
88DozierSantanaMauer
97PlouffeDozierSuzuki
106MauerArciaDozier
116PlouffeHicksSuzuki
126PlouffeSuzukiHicks
136SuzukiHicksSantana
145MauerArciaPlouffe
155HunterMauerArcia
165SuzukiPlouffeHicks
175SuzukiDozierSantana
185DozierSuzukiHicks
194SantanaHunterMauer
204ArciaVargasHunter
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