2012 MLB Simulations
| Visitors | Home | Probable Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Simulator Win Prob | Bet Units |
| BAL | BOS | Jason Hammel vs Jon Lester | BOS | 58.93% | 56.37% | --- |
| MIN | KC | Francisco Liriano vs Bruce Chen | KC | 56.43% | 60.24% | --- |
| PIT | CIN | A.J. Burnett vs Homer Bailey | CIN | 57.89% | 58.31% | --- |
| SEA | LAA | Blake Beavan vs Garrett Richards | LAA | 58.59% | 58.34% | --- |
| SF | SD | Tim Lincecum vs Anthony Bass | SF | 50.86% | 48.07% | --- |
| TOR | CHA | Ricky Romero vs Phil Humber | TOR | 50.25% | 47.32% | --- |
| CLE | DET | Ubaldo Jimenez vs Drew Smyly | DET | 58.76% | 63.94% | --- |
| LAN | PHI | Chad Billingsley vs Cliff Lee | PHI | 62.89% | 64.20% | --- |
| NYN | WAS | Chris Young vs Jordan Zimmerman | WAS | 58.93% | 65.42% | --- |
| TB | NYA | James Shields vs Andy Pettitte | NYA | 54.44% | 60.30% | --- |
| ATL | FLA | Tim Hudson vs Anibal Sanchez | FLA | 54.85% | 57.47% | --- |
| STL | HOU | Jaime Garcia vs Lucas Harrell | STL | 57.17% | 62.62% | --- |
| CHN | MIL | Ryan Dempster vs Yovanni Gallardo | MIL | 59.27% | 57.61% | --- |
| COL | ARI | Jeremy Guthrie vs Ian Kennedy | ARI | 58.93% | 55.23% | --- |
| TEX | OAK | Derek Holland vs Travis Blackley | TEX | 60.55% | 60.40% | --- |
Monday's Results: -4.3 units
Current ROI: 3.72%
Yesterday's Synopsis
Mauled! One run games on big bets killing me of late. Taking the day off to stretch out what may possibly be the last week of beating Vegas.
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do vegas bookmakers run their own simulations like you to come up with their openers?
ReplyDeleteTo tell you the truth I don't know, but I'd say the chances are slim to none that they run game simulations. I'm sure they have their own models that are obviously pretty good. You can do much more with a good game simulation, but your simulator and the data you input in to it better be very very good. Mine is good, but not good enough to set lines with as smart bettors would easily pick off the games it is wrong on.
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