Tuesday, April 03, 2012

April 4th Simulations




Cardinals VS Marlins

Away Home Away SP Home SP Vegas Fave Vegas Win Prob Vegas O/U Sim Win Prob Sim Away Runs Sim Home Runs Sim O/U Most Likely Score
STL MIA K.Lohse J.Johnson Miami 62.05% 6.9 57.10% 4.38 4.88 9.26 MIA 3-2
Skinny: Simulator sees this as a much higher scoring game than Vegas does. In fact after you adjust for home park, the simulator has these two offenses as the NL's two best. Josh Johnson is a tough pitcher, but coming off of an injury riddled season. Lohse is a bit of an enigma as one could easily argue that his good ERA and FIP were luck driven in 2011. At -160 on the ML there looks to be decent value on the Cardinals and with a run total of 7 +100 (Over) an over looks to be the smart play.


NameIPSOBBHitsHRPCFIP
Kyle Lohse5.844.411.687.470.5895.733.845
Jason Motte0.410.460.100.410.026.512.448
Fernando Salas0.410.450.130.440.046.713.317
Marc Rzepczynski0.590.600.320.650.0610.284.038
Scott Linebrink0.290.260.130.350.045.024.506
Kyle McClellan0.240.170.090.320.044.104.858
J.C. Romero0.540.460.380.650.059.994.886
Mitchell Boggs0.320.280.140.380.035.493.910
        
Josh Johnson6.006.251.956.670.6099.053.393
Heath Bell0.410.450.130.400.036.612.865
Edward Mujica0.380.390.080.430.056.073.376
Michael Dunn0.580.630.300.640.0810.134.430
Ryan Webb0.280.220.120.330.014.683.471
Randy Choate0.170.170.090.190.022.944.345
Steven Cishek0.830.900.340.870.0513.992.992
Chad Gaudin0.520.500.270.630.099.185.000


NameABHitsH1H2H3HRRBIBBSOwOBA
Rafael Furcal4.5171.2960.8560.3280.0240.0890.3750.3530.8370.337
Carlos Beltran4.2451.2860.7550.3340.0410.1560.5600.4910.9490.383
Matt Holliday4.2471.2550.7370.3440.0030.1710.6240.4211.1440.371
Lance Berkman3.9591.1490.7250.2330.0160.1750.6210.6160.9460.383
David Freese4.2011.2130.8370.2710.0110.0930.5150.2571.1530.331
Yadier Molina4.0711.2300.8580.2760.0050.0900.5100.2630.6370.343
Jon Jay3.9821.2270.8380.2770.0350.0770.4750.2770.8430.353
Daniel Descalso3.7011.0360.6830.2590.0300.0640.4520.4470.8680.345
Pitchers Spot3.8960.4530.3630.0760.0030.0110.1750.1492.1370.137
           
Jose Reyes4.4031.5151.0430.2890.1170.0660.3700.3240.3970.390
Emilio Bonifacio4.2331.3420.9940.2390.0640.0450.4900.3690.8150.357
Hanley Ramirez4.1821.3700.9390.3130.0110.1070.7200.3460.7230.377
Giancarlo Stanton3.9961.1720.6570.2760.0300.2080.7850.4311.1070.383
Logan Morrison3.8921.1890.6880.2820.0560.1630.6530.4450.7180.391
Gaby Sanchez3.8011.1580.7600.2880.0060.1040.5490.3910.6130.366
Omar Infante3.8821.2940.9580.2170.0590.0600.5110.2040.4760.364
John Buck3.6681.0330.7430.1880.0060.0960.4940.3190.8210.333
Pitchers Spot3.7430.5960.4810.0990.0050.0110.1960.1471.4290.178
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