April 4th Simulations

Cardinals VS Marlins

Away	Home	Away SP	Home SP	Vegas Fave	Vegas Win Prob	Vegas O/U	Sim Win Prob	Sim Away Runs	Sim Home Runs	Sim O/U	Most Likely Score
STL	MIA	K.Lohse	J.Johnson	Miami	62.05%	6.9	57.10%	4.38	4.88	9.26	MIA 3-2
Skinny: Simulator sees this as a much higher scoring game than Vegas does. In fact after you adjust for home park, the simulator has these two offenses as the NL's two best. Josh Johnson is a tough pitcher, but coming off of an injury riddled season. Lohse is a bit of an enigma as one could easily argue that his good ERA and FIP were luck driven in 2011. At -160 on the ML there looks to be decent value on the Cardinals and with a run total of 7 +100 (Over) an over looks to be the smart play.

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Kyle Lohse	5.84	4.41	1.68	7.47	0.58	95.73	3.845
Jason Motte	0.41	0.46	0.10	0.41	0.02	6.51	2.448
Fernando Salas	0.41	0.45	0.13	0.44	0.04	6.71	3.317
Marc Rzepczynski	0.59	0.60	0.32	0.65	0.06	10.28	4.038
Scott Linebrink	0.29	0.26	0.13	0.35	0.04	5.02	4.506
Kyle McClellan	0.24	0.17	0.09	0.32	0.04	4.10	4.858
J.C. Romero	0.54	0.46	0.38	0.65	0.05	9.99	4.886
Mitchell Boggs	0.32	0.28	0.14	0.38	0.03	5.49	3.910
Josh Johnson	6.00	6.25	1.95	6.67	0.60	99.05	3.393
Heath Bell	0.41	0.45	0.13	0.40	0.03	6.61	2.865
Edward Mujica	0.38	0.39	0.08	0.43	0.05	6.07	3.376
Michael Dunn	0.58	0.63	0.30	0.64	0.08	10.13	4.430
Ryan Webb	0.28	0.22	0.12	0.33	0.01	4.68	3.471
Randy Choate	0.17	0.17	0.09	0.19	0.02	2.94	4.345
Steven Cishek	0.83	0.90	0.34	0.87	0.05	13.99	2.992
Chad Gaudin	0.52	0.50	0.27	0.63	0.09	9.18	5.000

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	BB	SO	wOBA
Rafael Furcal	4.517	1.296	0.856	0.328	0.024	0.089	0.375	0.353	0.837	0.337
Carlos Beltran	4.245	1.286	0.755	0.334	0.041	0.156	0.560	0.491	0.949	0.383
Matt Holliday	4.247	1.255	0.737	0.344	0.003	0.171	0.624	0.421	1.144	0.371
Lance Berkman	3.959	1.149	0.725	0.233	0.016	0.175	0.621	0.616	0.946	0.383
David Freese	4.201	1.213	0.837	0.271	0.011	0.093	0.515	0.257	1.153	0.331
Yadier Molina	4.071	1.230	0.858	0.276	0.005	0.090	0.510	0.263	0.637	0.343
Jon Jay	3.982	1.227	0.838	0.277	0.035	0.077	0.475	0.277	0.843	0.353
Daniel Descalso	3.701	1.036	0.683	0.259	0.030	0.064	0.452	0.447	0.868	0.345
Pitchers Spot	3.896	0.453	0.363	0.076	0.003	0.011	0.175	0.149	2.137	0.137
Jose Reyes	4.403	1.515	1.043	0.289	0.117	0.066	0.370	0.324	0.397	0.390
Emilio Bonifacio	4.233	1.342	0.994	0.239	0.064	0.045	0.490	0.369	0.815	0.357
Hanley Ramirez	4.182	1.370	0.939	0.313	0.011	0.107	0.720	0.346	0.723	0.377
Giancarlo Stanton	3.996	1.172	0.657	0.276	0.030	0.208	0.785	0.431	1.107	0.383
Logan Morrison	3.892	1.189	0.688	0.282	0.056	0.163	0.653	0.445	0.718	0.391
Gaby Sanchez	3.801	1.158	0.760	0.288	0.006	0.104	0.549	0.391	0.613	0.366
Omar Infante	3.882	1.294	0.958	0.217	0.059	0.060	0.511	0.204	0.476	0.364
John Buck	3.668	1.033	0.743	0.188	0.006	0.096	0.494	0.319	0.821	0.333
Pitchers Spot	3.743	0.596	0.481	0.099	0.005	0.011	0.196	0.147	1.429	0.178

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