On the heels of the Giants/Dodgers 2011 simulated matchups, I present to you the Rockies/Dodgers 2011 simulated matchups. Each pitching matchup was simulated 100K times with each team taking a shot at being both the away and home team. Below are the lineups, starting rotations used as well as the results (50).
| Rockies Starting Lineup | Dodgers Starting Lineup | ||||||||
| Rockies vs LHP | Rockies vs RHP | Dodgers vs LHP | Dodgers vs RHP | ||||||
| Order | Pos | Name | Pos | Name | Pos | Name | Pos | Name | |
| 1 | CF | D.Fowler | CF | D.Fowler | SS | R.Furcal | SS | R.Furcal | |
| 2 | 2B | J.Lopez | RF | S.Smith | CF | M.Kemp | CF | M.Kemp | |
| 3 | RF | C.Gonzalez | LF | C.Gonzalez | RF | A.Ethier | RF | A.Ethier | |
| 4 | SS | T.Tulowitzki | SS | T.Tulowitzki | 3B | C.Blake | 1B | J.Loney | |
| 5 | LF | R.Spilborghs | 3B | I.Stewart | 2B | J.Uribe | 3B | C.Blake | |
| 6 | 1B | T.Wigginton | 1B | T.Helton | LF | M.Thames | 2B | J.Uribe | |
| 7 | 3B | I.Stewart | 2B | J.Lopez | 1B | J.Loney | LF | J.Gibbons | |
| 8 | C | C.Iannetta | C | C.Iannetta | C | R.Barajas | C | R.Barajas | |
| Rockies Rotation | Dodgers Rotation | ||
| #1 | Ubaldo Jimenez | #1 | Clayton Kershaw |
| #2 | Jorge de la Rosa | #2 | Chad Billingsley |
| #3 | Jason Hammel | #3 | Hiroki Kuroda |
| #4 | Jhoulys Chacin | #4 | Ted Lilly |
| #5 | Aaron Cook | #5 | Jon Garland |
| Simulation Results | |||
| Away Starter | Home Starter | Favorite | Win Prob |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 53.81% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Ubaldo Jimenez | Rockies | 58.17% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Chad Billingsley | Dodgers | 51.40% |
| Chad Billingsley | Ubaldo Jimenez | Rockies | 61.09% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Hiroki Kuroda | Rockies | 50.81% |
| Hiroki Kuroda | Ubaldo Jimenez | Rockies | 62.88% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Ted Lilly | Rockies | 55.18% |
| Ted Lilly | Ubaldo Jimenez | Rockies | 66.35% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Jon Garland | Rockies | 58.51% |
| Jon Garland | Ubaldo Jimenez | Rockies | 70.16% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 59.47% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Jorge de la Rosa | Rockies | 52.54% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | Chad Billingsley | Dodgers | 57.12% |
| Chad Billingsley | Jorge de la Rosa | Rockies | 55.36% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | Hiroki Kuroda | Dodgers | 55.16% |
| Hiroki Kuroda | Jorge de la Rosa | Rockies | 57.18% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | Ted Lilly | Dodgers | 50.59% |
| Ted Lilly | Jorge de la Rosa | Rockies | 60.82% |
| Jorge de la Rosa | Jon Garland | Rockies | 52.03% |
| Jon Garland | Jorge de la Rosa | Rockies | 64.87% |
| Jason Hammel | Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 58.40% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Jason Hammel | Rockies | 52.78% |
| Jason Hammel | Chad Billingsley | Dodgers | 56.26% |
| Chad Billingsley | Jason Hammel | Rockies | 55.44% |
| Jason Hammel | Hiroki Kuroda | Dodgers | 53.75% |
| Hiroki Kuroda | Jason Hammel | Rockies | 57.65% |
| Jason Hammel | Ted Lilly | Rockies | 51.08% |
| Ted Lilly | Jason Hammel | Rockies | 61.29% |
| Jason Hammel | Jon Garland | Rockies | 53.77% |
| Jon Garland | Jason Hammel | Rockies | 65.41% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 56.28% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Jhoulys Chacin | Rockies | 55.41% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Chad Billingsley | Dodgers | 53.64% |
| Chad Billingsley | Jhoulys Chacin | Rockies | 58.53% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Hiroki Kuroda | Dodgers | 51.34% |
| Hiroki Kuroda | Jhoulys Chacin | Rockies | 60.18% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Ted Lilly | Rockies | 52.95% |
| Ted Lilly | Jhoulys Chacin | Rockies | 63.90% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Jon Garland | Rockies | 55.94% |
| Jon Garland | Jhoulys Chacin | Rockies | 67.62% |
| Aaron Cook | Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 61.99% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Aaron Cook | Dodgers | 51.81% |
| Aaron Cook | Chad Billingsley | Dodgers | 59.82% |
| Chad Billingsley | Aaron Cook | Rockies | 51.60% |
| Aaron Cook | Hiroki Kuroda | Dodgers | 57.61% |
| Hiroki Kuroda | Aaron Cook | Rockies | 53.40% |
| Aaron Cook | Ted Lilly | Dodgers | 53.33% |
| Ted Lilly | Aaron Cook | Rockies | 56.79% |
| Aaron Cook | Jon Garland | Dodgers | 50.20% |
| Jon Garland | Aaron Cook | Rockies | 61.21% |
When you average the combined win probability of all fifty games, the Rockies have an average win probability of 53.38%. Extrapolated out over a 162 game season the Rockies would win 86.47 games and the Dodgers would win 75.53. The simulator is showing the Rockies as the stronger of the two teams, but it is close enough that the Dodgers could reasonably finish with a better record than the Rockies due to randomness.
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That doesn't look very close to me.
ReplyDeleteYeah, luckily the two teams don't actually play each other 162 times. The Giants results were somewhat (not quite as bad) similar. I may have to post a Giants/Rockies H2H to see how the top two teams in the NL West stack up. This exercise of course does not take into consideration the Dodgers strength at the #6 spot in the starting rotation should anyone go down. Of course, same goes for the Rockies. :)
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