Simulating The Entire 2010 Season

What started as an exercise for my baseball simulator to play every game on the Dodgers 2010 schedule has now turned into an exercise to play every teams entire 2010 schedule. I had to take some steps, which may cut into the efficiency of the exercise to prevent this from becoming too time consuming.

Basic methodology: Each teams starting rotation for this exercise will be going 7 deep. The top starters will be getting more starts, but occasionally I have the 6th and 7th starters on the depth charts subbing in for one of the other starters. Each team uses the same algorithm for determining which pitcher starts. I am using each teams projected starting lineup for each game. Bench players are only used in pinch hitting roles. In reality there will be injuries and days off to regulars that would force bench players to start. I went the easy route here to save time. I don't think it should effect the results too much, but feel free to dock or add a few wins to teams you think have superior benches.

The results will be posted in fractions of wins and losses as well as winning percentage up to the date of games that I have finished simulating. I am simulating each game 10,000 times.

Results: Season is complete!

2010 Season Simulated
Place	Team	Wins	Losses	PCT
NL West
1	Dodgers	93.8	68.2	.579
2	Rockies	86.7	75.3	.535
3	DBacks	82.7	79.3	.510
4	Giants	75.6	86.4	.466
5	Padres	72.3	89.7	.446
NL Central
1	Cubs	87.9	75.2	.543
2	Cardinals	84.6	77.4	.522
3	Brewers	78.0	84.0	.482
4	Reds	75.1	86.9	.464
5	Pirates	72.5	89.5	.447
6	Astros	71.9	90.1	.444
NL East
1	Braves	90.3	71.7	.557
2	Phillies	90.1	71.9	.556
3	Marlins	81.2	80.8	.501
4	Mets	75.7	86.3	.467
5	Nationals	74.9	87.1	.462
AL West
1	Mariners	82.4	79.6	.509
2	Angels	82.2	79.8	.507
3	A's	81.5	80.5	.503
4	Rangers	80.9	81.1	.499
AL Central
1	Twins	86.5	75.5	.534
2	White Sox	82.1	79.9	.507
3	Tigers	77.9	84.1	.481
4	Royals	72.2	89.8	.446
5	Indians	69.9	92.1	.431
AL East
1	Yankees	102.0	60.0	.630
2	Red Sox	91.0	71.0	.561
3	Rays	82.2	79.8	.508
4	Blue Jays	74.7	87.3	.461
5	Orioles	71.5	90.5	.441

March Madness Picks

Dodger Crystal Ball

It's time to leave the world of WAR and move onto what should hopefully be a better indicator of team talent in terms of projecting a 2010 win total. I have programmed up my baseball simulator with the first 50 games of the Dodgers schedule. Taking the Dodgers win probability from each game and adding them all together and dividing by 50 you get the Dodgers 50 game win total expectancy.

As part of this exercise, I had to make a few assumption in order to keep this from becoming a science project. I used roster depth charts from Yahoo sports, using the same starting lineup for each team, in each and every game. I used 5 man starting rotations, skipping the 5th starter when their turn was not needed. For the Dodgers, I split 5th starter starts between Eric Stults and James McDonald. For player projection inputs, I generate my own player projections.

For a detailed description of the results, please navigate to this Fanpost at the Dodgers True Blue LA blog.

As time permits, I will add 10-20 games to the simulation per week and update the table below.

Team	Games Played	Wins	Losses	Win %
Dodgers	50	29.7	20.3	.594

Super Bowl Odds

2010 AL West WAR

Last updated 1/26
Other Divisions...
AL East | AL Central | NL East | NL Central | NL West |

AL West
Team	Hitting	Pitching	Replacement	Total WAR
Angels	22.9	16.7	44.5	84.1
Mariners	21.0	18.5	44.5	84.0
Rangers	23.8	13.7	44.5	82.0
A's	18.6	16.4	44.5	79.5

Top 10 AL West WAR Players
Rank	Name	Team	WAR
1	Cliff Lee	Mariners	6.0
1	Felix Hernandez	Mariners	6.0
3	Ian Kinsler	Rangers	5.0
4	Franklin Gutierrez	Mariners	4.7
5	Brett Anderson	A's	4.3
5	Ichiro Suzuki	Mariners	4.3
5	Chone Figgins	Mariners	4.3
8	Elvis Andrus	Rangers	4.0
9	Jered Weaver	Angels	3.5
9	Josh Hamilton	Rangers	3.5
9	Torri Hunter	Angels	3.5

Update History
1/8: Initial publication.
1/9: TEX sdded DH-V.Guerrero
1/20: LAA signed P-J.Pineiro
1/26: OAK signed P-B.Sheets

2010 AL Central WAR

Last updated 2/4

AL Central
Team	Hitting	Pitching	Replacement	Total WAR
Twins	20.8	18.0	45.0	83.8
Tigers	18.7	17.8	45.0	81.5
White Sox	16.7	18.5	45.0	80.2
Indians	19.1	10.0	45.0	74.1
Royals	10.3	17.9	45.0	73.2

Top 10 AL Central WAR Players
Rank	Name	Team	WAR
1	Joe Mauer	Twins	7.3
2	Zach Greinke	Royals	7.1
3	Grady Sizemore	Indians	5.9
4	Justin Verlander	Tigers	5.8
5	Miguel Cabrera	Tigers	5.2
6	Shin-Soo Choo	Indians	4.6
7	Denard Span	Twins	4.1
8	Alex Gordon	Royals	4.0
9	Justin Morneau	Twins	3.8
9	Jake Peavy	White Sox	3.8

Update History
1/6: Initial publication.
1/6: Fixed Top 10 List (Left A.Gordon off list)
1/14: Added P-J.Valverde (DET)
2/4: Added DH-J.Thome (MIN)
2/4: Added 2B-O.Hudson (MIN)

2010 AL East WAR

Last updated 1/4

AL East
Team	Hitting	Pitching	Replacement	Total WAR
Yankees	38.1	21.5	41.5	101.1
Red Sox	34.2	23.4	41.5	99.1
Rays	35.6	17.1	41.5	94.2
Orioles	23.6	10.8	41.5	75.9
Blue Jays	20.3	12.1	41.5	73.9

Top 10 AL East WAR Players
Rank	Name	Team	WAR
1	Evan Longoria	Rays	7.3
2	Alex Rodriguez	Yankees	6.7
3	Mark Teixeira	Yankees	5.7
4	Ben Zobrist	Rays	5.6
4	Jon Lester	Red Sox	5.6
6	CC Sabathia	Yankees	5.5
6	Dustin Pedroia	Red Sox	5.5
8	Kevin Youkilis	Red Sox	5.4
9	Carl Crawford	Rays	5.1
9	B.J. Upton	Rays	5.1

Update History
1/4 - Adrian Beltre signs with Boston.

2010 NL East WAR

Last updated 1/14

NL East
Team	Hitting	Pitching	Replacement	Total WAR
Phillies	30.6	17.4	46.5	94.5
Braves	22.4	20.4	46.5	89.3
Mets	22.4	14.0	46.5	82.9
Marlins	18.7	13.3	46.5	78.5
Nationals	18.5	6.9	46.5	71.9

Top 10 NL East WAR Players
Rank	Name	Team	WAR
1	Chase Utley	Phillies	8.1
2	Hanley Ramirez	Marlins	7.4
3	Roy Halladay	Phillies	6.7
4	David Wright	Mets	6.4
4	Ryan Zimmerman	Nationals	6.4
6	Brian McCann	Braves	5.5
7	Jose Reyes	Mets	5.2
7	Josh Johnson	Marlins	5.2
9	Johan Santana	Mets	4.7
10	Chipper Jones	Braves	4.6
10	Tommy Hanson	Braves	4.5

Update Notes:
12/29: Jason Bay projections added for Mets
1/14: Adjusted C.Beltran down (injury) & updated Top 10 list.

2010 NL Central WAR

Not breaking down the details like I did in the NL West version, but here are the results. Last updated 1/5

NL Central
Team	Hitting	Pitching	Replacement	Total WAR
Cardinals	24.4	19.1	48.0	91.5
Cubs	20.1	13.7	48.0	81.8
Brewers	20.4	9.7	48.0	78.1
Reds	16.2	10.7	48.0	74.9
Astros	16.3	9.7	48.0	74.0
Pirates	13.9	9.6	48.0	71.5

Top 10 NL Central WAR Players
Rank	Name	Team	WAR
1	Albert Pujols	Cardinals	7.5
2	Adam Wainwright	Cardinals	5.5
3	Prince Fielder	Brewers	5.3
4	Ryan Braun	Brewers	5.1
5	Matt Holliday	Cardinals	5.0
6	Joey Votto	Reds	4.9
6	Aramis Ramirez	Cubs	4.9
6	Chris Carpenter	Cardinals	4.9
9	Andrew McCutchen	Pirates	4.6
10	Lance Berkman	Astros	4.4

Changes Made
1/5: Adjusted A.Pujols from 8.0 to 7.5 WAR
1/5: Added Matt Holiday @ 5.0 WAR to Cardinals lineup

2010 NL West WAR

It's that time of the year again. The time when I pull out my WAR projections (that will be initially rolled out in a Beta version) for all five NL West teams. These are rough estimates, but I feel they are pretty accurate for the most part. The WAR projections are a combination of Fangraphs and my estimates. Some teams still will be signing free agents and or making trades, so there will likely be more than a few adjustments. Feel free to point out any roster errors, any values you feel are way off, or anything else that stands out.

Last updated 1/21

	Rockies		Dodgers		Giants		DBacks		Padres
Pos	Name	WAR	Name	WAR	Name	WAR	Name	WAR	Name	WAR
C	C.Iannetta	2.5	R.Martin	3.0	B.Molina	1.2	M.Montero	3.3	N.Hundley	2.2
1B	T.Helton	3.8	J.Loney	1.8	A.Huff	1.4	A.LaRoche	1.5	A.Gonzalez	5.2
2B	C.Barmes	1.8	B.Dewitt	1.5	F.Sanchez	2.2	K.Johnson	2.5	D.Eckstein	0.6
3B	I.Stewart	1.8	C.Blake	3.5	P.Sandoval	5.0	M.Reynolds	3.9	K.Kouzmanoff	3.0
SS	T.Tulowitzki	6.0	R.Furcal	2.9	E.Renteria	1.0	S.Drew	2.2	E.Cabrera	1.7
LF	S.Smith	2.7	M.Ramirez	3.8	M.DeRosa	2.3	C.Jackson	2.5	C.Headley	2.4
CF	C.Gonzalez	4.0	M.Kemp	5.4	A.Rowand	1.7	C.Young	1.0	W.Venable	2.3
RF	B.Hawpe	1.8	A.Ethier	3.3	N.Schierholtz	1.7	J.Upton	5.5	T.Gwynn	2.8
UT	D.Fowler	1.8	J.Carroll	0.3	A.Torres	1.6	G.Parra	1.0	K.Blanks	1.2
BN	Bench	2.0	Bench	0.6	Bench	3.2	Bench	1.1	Bench	0.8
Misc	Sucktitude	-4.7		-4.0		-5.5		-6.0		-7.9
Pitchers
SP1	U.Jimenez	5.1	C.Kershaw	4.4	T.Lincecum	7.0	D.Haren	5.5	K.Correia	2.3
SP2	J.de la Rosa	3.0	C.Billingsley	3.5	M.Cain	4.0	B.Webb	5.0	C.Richard	2.0
SP3	J.Hammel	2.9	H.Kuroda	2.5	J.Sanchez	2.4	E.Jackson	2.5	M.Latos	1.5
SP4	A.Cook	2.2	V.Padilla	2.5	B.Zito	2.0	I.Kennedy	2.0	C.Young	1.5
SP5	J.Francis	2.0	E.Stults	1.7	M.Bumgarner	1.8	B.Buckner	1.5	W.LeBlanc	1.5
SP	All Others	0.1	All Others	0.7	All Others	0.1	All Others	0.3	All Others	0.7
CL	H.Street	1.5	J.Broxton	2.3	B.Wilson	2.0	C.Qualls	1.0	H.Bell	1.8
SU	R.Betancourt	0.7	G.Sherrill	1.0	J.Affeldt	1.0	J.Gutierrez	0.5	L.Perdomo	0.2
RP	All Others	0.9	All Others	1.5	All Others	1.0	All Others	1.2	All Others	1.1
Misc	Sucktitude	-0.3		-1.0		-0.8		-1.0		-6.9
Hitters		23.4		22.1		15.5		18.8		14.3
Pitchers		18.1		19.1		20.5		18.2		5.7
Replacement		46.5		46.5		46.5		46.5		46.5
Total		88.0		87.7		82.5		83.5		66.5

Update History:
1/9: ARI: Added Kelly Johnson, Bob Howry
1/11: SF: Added A.Huff and adjusted other players
1/14: ARI: Added Adam LaRoche to team
1/19: SF: Signed C-Bengie Molina
1/21: LAN: Signed P-Vicente Padilla

Xizzles

I am debuting my very own projection system. Tonight the cover is off of the Xizzles, my very own baseball projection system. The algorithm for the system will not be made public but it is based off of a system that follows the following guidelines.

1) Keep it as simple as possible.
2) Automation
3) More recent performance weighted heavier.
4) Regression to the mean.
5) Age adjustments.

The system will not focus on opportunity based stats like RBIs, Runs, SB and Saves which are heavily dependent upon how the manager uses the player, where in the lineup a player bats, or the performance of the players hitting in front of him. Instead it will focus on rate stats (like HR/AB) and then borrow playing time projections (number of at bats or innings pitched) from some of the popular forecasting systems available. Since this is the initial roll out of the Xizzles, I will obviously be looking at ways to improve the system and visitor (do I have any visitors?) input is welcome. Here are the 2010 Xizzles for a few of the 2010 Los Angeles Dodgers hitters.

2010 Los Angeles Dodgers (last updated 12/17/09)

Name	Pos	AB	Hits	1B	2B	3B	HR	AVE	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA	BABIP
Matt Kemp	CF	600.0	176.6	117.0	27.2	5.7	26.7	0.294	0.348	0.492	0.840	0.363	0.341
Andre Ethier	RF	580.0	161.3	87.5	40.9	3.3	29.5	0.278	0.357	0.513	0.870	0.374	0.298
Manny Ramirez	LF	510.0	147.8	86.4	32.7	2.4	26.3	0.290	0.404	0.518	0.921	0.401	0.332
Casey Blake	3B	500.0	137.6	89.4	25.4	5.2	17.6	0.275	0.356	0.452	0.808	0.354	0.331
Rafael Furcal	SS	600.0	164.2	122.1	27.4	5.3	9.4	0.274	0.341	0.384	0.725	0.325	0.306
Blake DeWitt	3B	400.0	103.3	63.7	25.1	2.5	12.0	0.258	0.321	0.424	0.745	0.326	0.281
Russell Martin	C	515.0	131.2	101.3	20.0	0.1	9.7	0.255	0.347	0.351	0.698	0.319	0.284
James Loney	1B	550.0	156.1	114.2	24.8	2.5	14.6	0.284	0.359	0.417	0.776	0.345	0.302
Jamey Carroll	2B	200.0	53.0	44.3	6.4	1.1	1.2	0.265	0.337	0.326	0.662	0.304	0.328
Jason Repko	CF	175.0	40.9	24.9	11.5	1.4	3.0	0.234	0.286	0.367	0.653	0.288	0.275
Xavier Paul	RF	175.0	46.1	30.3	9.1	0.3	6.4	0.263	0.326	0.429	0.755	0.330	0.297

NL West 2 Man Simulation Challenge

Champion: D.Fowler/T.Helton
2nd Place: A.Ethier/C.Blake
3rd Place: C.Gonzalez/T.Tulowitzki

Participants: 16 pair of NL West outfielders/infielders from the same team.

What: A 16 team double elimination tournament, where each game is played on my simulator in best four out of seven format.

Rules: Each player bats four times in the lineup, alternating throughout the lineup in the one through eight spots in the lineup. A league average pitcher will bat 9th for all teams. And a four man bench consisting of the two man team will be available for pinch hitting duties. Each team will use the same four man rotation of RHP Dan Haren, LHP Clayton Kershaw, RHP Matt Cain and LHP Clayton Richard. All bullpens will be identical. The higher seeded team will have home field advantage in the 2-3-2 format.

Notes: This tournament is for entertainment purposes only. If all goes well, I will be open to another type of tournament following this one. Current results will be posted on a game by game basis.

Game by Game Updates/Scores

Link to bracket

Game Six In The City

November 4th, World Series Game #6

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	AccuScore Win Prob	Actual
Phillies	Yankees	P.Martinez vs A.Pettitte	Yankees	64.97%	64.66%	61%	NYA 7-3

Vegas Odds

Uno Mas

November 2nd, World Series Game #5

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	AccuScore Win Prob	Actual
Yankees	Phillies	A.Burnett vs C.Lee	Phillies	57.45%	63.03%	60%	PHI 8-6

Vegas Odds

Start Spreading The News...

November 1st, World Series Game #4

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	AccuScore Win Prob	Actual
Yankees	Phillies	C.Sabathia vs J.Blanton	Yankees	62.26%	62.51%	65%	NYA 7-4

Vegas Odds

Trick Or Treat Baseball

October 31st, World Series Game #3

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	AccuScore Win Prob	Actual
Yankees	Phillies	A.Pettitte vs C.Hamels	Yankees	52.83%	46.70%	52%	NYA 8-5

Vegas Odds

Who's Your Daddy

October 29th, World Series Game #2

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	AccuScore Win Prob	Actual
Phillies	Yankees	P.Martinez vs A.Burnett	Yankees	66.10%	58.48%	58%	NYA 3-1

Vegas Odds

World Series, Tale Of The Tape

There has been a lot of talk about which team, the Yankees or the Phillies, has the best lineup. Obviously, both teams have very good offenses along with some very fine fielders. I've tried to break down which lineup is the best based on 2009 seasonal stats. What I've done is added up the WAR of each of the nine (in AL parks) or eight (in NL parks) positional players. Since WAR is a counting stat, I converted WAR to WAR per 650 plate appearances. Not perfect science, but I believe it to be a much better method than what I've been seeing out there.

Pos	Yankees	WAR/650PA	Phillies	WAR/650PA
C	J.Posada	5.94	C.Ruiz	3.77
1B	M.Teixeira	4.78	R.Howard	4.53
2B	R.Cano	4.15	C.Utley	7.29
3B	A.Rodriguez	5.59	P.Feliz	1.25
SS	D.Jeter	6.72	J.Rollins	2.15
LF	J.Damon	2.91	R.Ibanez	4.72
CF	M.Cabrera	1.93	S.Victorino	3.18
RF	N.Swisher	3.96	J.Werth	4.52
DH	H.Matsui	2.95	B.Francisco	2.27
Total (DH)		38.92		33.67
Total (No DH)		35.97		31.41

So it appears that the Yankees have the better lineup. The biggest differences are at SS (whatever happened to Jimmy Rollins!??) and 3B, which is no big surprise. The Phillies have a fairly sizeable advantage at 2B, tapering off to smaller advantages at 2B, LF, CF and RF. The Yankees also have a sizeable advantage at catcher, where Jorge Posada outslugs Carlos Ruiz by a wide margin. Since WAR uses UZR, there is some wiggle room to adjust the Phillies a little higher, as most people think of Carlos Ruiz as a better defensive catcher than Jorge Posada. I won't attempt to fiddle with that and will let you adjust accordingly if at all. Later, I will look at the starting pitching and bullpens.

When Two Tribes Go To War

October 28th, World Series Game #1

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	AccuScore Win Prob	Actual
Phillies	Yankees	C.Lee vs C.Sabathia	Yankees	60.78%	56.96%	67%	PHI 6-1

Vegas Odds

End Of The Line

October 25th, ALCS Game #6

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	AccuScore Win Prob	Actual
Angels	Yankees	J.Saunders vs A.Pettitte	Yankees	63.37%	67.25%	57%	NYA 5-2

Vegas Odds

El Fin

October 22nd, ALCS Game #5

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	AccuScore Win Prob	Actual
Yankees	Angels	A.Burnett vs J.Lackey	Angels	53.49%	55.25%	54%	LAA 7-6

Vegas Odds

Sending Out An S.O.S.

October 21st, NLCS

Click Here, To Help Rescue The Dodgers Season!!!

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Xeifrank Win Prob	AccuScore Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Phillies	V.Padilla vs C.Hamels	Phillies	56.71%	59.88%	55%	PHI 10-4

Vegas Odds