July 21st Simulation Results

2012 MLB Simulations

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	ML Bets
BAL	CLE	Chris Tillman vs Zach McAllister	CLE	59.27%	60.0%	- - -
COL	SD	Jeff Francis vs Kip Wells	COL	51.81%	46.5%	SD, 0.7
MIL	CIN	Yovanni Gallardo vs Bronson Arroyo	CIN	50.86%	53.0%	- - -
MIN	KC	Scott Diamond vs Luis Mendoza	KC	54.65%	50.0%	MIN, 0.7
SEA	TB	Jason Vargas vs Alex Cobb	TB	58.93%	61.5%	TB, 0.7
TEX	LAA	Yu Darvish vs Ervin Santana	TEX	54.23%	49.5%	LAA, 0.7
TOR	BOS	Carlos Villanueva vs Aaron Cook	BOS	55.46%	59.0%	BOS, 0.7
LAN	NYN	Chris Capuano vs Miguel Batista	LAN	53.81%	51.5%	- - -
CHN	STL	Matt Garza vs Jake Westbrook	STL	57.36%	56.5%	- - -
SF	PHI	Matt Cain vs Cole Hamels	PHI	56.04%	54.0%	- - -
ATL	WAS	Ben Sheets vs Edwin Jackson	WAS	52.94%	56.0%	WAS, 0.7
ATL	WAS	Randall Delgado vs John Lannan	WAS	52.49%	53.5%	- - -
CHA	DET	Chris Sale vs Rick Porcello	CHA	53.16%	50.5%	DET, 0.7
FLA	PIT	Carlos Zambrano vs A.J. Burnett	PIT	56.04%	60.0%	PIT, 0.7
HOU	ARI	Dallas Keuchel vs Wade Miley	ARI	63.03%	63.0%	- - -
NYA	OAK	Phil Hughes vs Jarrod Parker	NYA	55.06%	53.05%	- - -

Previous Day: -5.3 units (risked 9.3u) ML and +0.7 units (risked 2.4u) on Run Totals

Current ML ROI: 2.95%
ML ROI Last 50 Bets:  -0.01%
ML ROI Last 25 Bets:  +9.07%

Notes:  Tough day yesterday mostly due to the Nationals amazing failure last night of holding a 9-0 lead in a game that Stephen Strasburg started. The failure was not his fault but it was a truly amazing comeback by the Braves. Today, I am trying something a little bit new. I am going to just make flat ML bets on games that meet a certain threshold. I may return to the Kelly Criterion for betting at a later time, but it is time to try something different that a few readers have suggested trying.  I am also rounding of the sim output to the nearest half.
Yahoo MLB Scoreboard