Friday, January 30, 2015

St Louis Cardinals - Most Optimal 2015 Lineups

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I am using my simulator that plays actual baseball games to find what it believes are the most optimal lineups for the 2015 St Louis Cardinals.  I started out with over 10,000 permutations of lineups, a group that was filtered to remove such things as too many left handed hitters hitting back to back or the pitcher not hitting 8th or 9th etc... and I slowly widdled it down to the top 50 lineups.  I also compared the best lineup against the lineup that MLB Depth Charts shows as a likely lineup and also one of the worst lineups to see what kind of spread there is.  The top 50 lineups all came within a half of a win per 162 games so really anything in that range is pretty good.  When you start nearing a full win differential with the top lineup then you definitely have problems.  I typically simulated each lineup over 1 million times which eliminated a large portion of the random noise and I did so only against a right handed pitcher.  Below are a list of the top 50 lineups and a batting order spot frequence table, where you can see how many times each player appeared in each of the top 50 lineup.

                                       Top 50 Most Optimal Lineups
RankLineupWins/162 Behind
1Heyward-Carpenter-Holliday-Adams-Wong-Molina-Peralta-Pitcher-Jay0
2Carpenter-Heyward-Holliday-Adams-Wong-Molina-Peralta-Pitcher-Jay0.014
3Wong-Jay-Holliday-Carpenter-Heyward-Peralta-Adams-Molina-Pitcher0.015
4Carpenter-Heyward-Holliday-Adams-Wong-Peralta-Molina-Pitcher-Jay0.032
5Heyward-Jay-Holliday-Carpenter-Adams-Peralta-Molina-Pitcher-Wong0.066
6Wong-Heyward-Holliday-Carpenter-Adams-Peralta-Molina-Pitcher-Jay0.086
7Heyward-Jay-Holliday-Carpenter-Adams-Molina-Peralta-Pitcher-Wong0.102
8Heyward-Jay-Holliday-Carpenter-Adams-Peralta-Wong-Molina-Pitcher0.120
9Jay-Heyward-Holliday-Carpenter-Adams-Peralta-Molina-Pitcher-Wong0.131
10Wong-Jay-Holliday-Carpenter-Heyward-Molina-Adams-Peralta-Pitcher0.151
11Jay-Heyward-Holliday-Carpenter-Adams-Peralta-Wong-Molina-Pitcher0.167
12Jay-Heyward-Holliday-Carpenter-Wong-Peralta-Adams-Molina-Pitcher0.171
13Jay-Heyward-Holliday-Carpenter-Adams-Molina-Peralta-Pitcher-Wong0.175
14Heyward-Carpenter-Holliday-Adams-Wong-Peralta-Jay-Molina-Pitcher0.184
15Carpenter-Jay-Holliday-Adams-Heyward-Peralta-Wong-Molina-Pitcher0.199
16Jay-Heyward-Holliday-Adams-Carpenter-Peralta-Wong-Molina-Pitcher0.200
17Heyward-Jay-Holliday-Adams-Carpenter-Peralta-Wong-Molina-Pitcher0.209
18Wong-Jay-Peralta-Carpenter-Heyward-Holliday-Adams-Molina-Pitcher0.243
19Heyward-Adams-Holliday-Carpenter-Wong-Molina-Peralta-Pitcher-Jay0.247
20Carpenter-Heyward-Holliday-Adams-Jay-Peralta-Molina-Pitcher-Wong0.253
21Heyward-Wong-Holliday-Adams-Carpenter-Peralta-Molina-Pitcher-Jay0.257
22Jay-Wong-Holliday-Carpenter-Heyward-Molina-Adams-Peralta-Pitcher0.266
23Heyward-Adams-Holliday-Carpenter-Wong-Peralta-Molina-Pitcher-Jay0.269
24Heyward-Jay-Holliday-Carpenter-Adams-Molina-Wong-Peralta-Pitcher0.269
25Wong-Jay-Molina-Carpenter-Heyward-Holliday-Adams-Peralta-Pitcher0.284
26Jay-Carpenter-Holliday-Heyward-Adams-Peralta-Molina-Pitcher-Wong0.286
27Heyward-Carpenter-Holliday-Adams-Molina-Wong-Peralta-Pitcher-Jay0.286
28Jay-Carpenter-Holliday-Adams-Heyward-Peralta-Molina-Pitcher-Wong0.288
29Heyward-Holliday-Carpenter-Adams-Peralta-Wong-Molina-Pitcher-Jay0.289
30Carpenter-Heyward-Holliday-Adams-Wong-Molina-Jay-Peralta-Pitcher0.292
31Jay-Adams-Holliday-Carpenter-Heyward-Peralta-Wong-Molina-Pitcher0.299
32Heyward-Wong-Holliday-Carpenter-Adams-Peralta-Jay-Molina-Pitcher0.305
33Wong-Carpenter-Holliday-Adams-Heyward-Peralta-Molina-Pitcher-Jay0.310
34Carpenter-Jay-Holliday-Adams-Heyward-Peralta-Molina-Pitcher-Wong0.310
35Peralta-Heyward-Carpenter-Holliday-Adams-Wong-Molina-Pitcher-Jay0.317
36Jay-Carpenter-Holliday-Heyward-Adams-Peralta-Wong-Molina-Pitcher0.326
37Jay-Wong-Molina-Carpenter-Heyward-Holliday-Adams-Peralta-Pitcher0.327
38Carpenter-Heyward-Holliday-Adams-Jay-Peralta-Wong-Molina-Pitcher0.327
39Wong-Carpenter-Holliday-Adams-Heyward-Peralta-Jay-Molina-Pitcher0.343
40Jay-Carpenter-Holliday-Adams-Heyward-Molina-Wong-Peralta-Pitcher0.348
41Jay-Heyward-Holliday-Adams-Carpenter-Molina-Peralta-Pitcher-Wong0.353
42Wong-Adams-Holliday-Carpenter-Heyward-Peralta-Molina-Pitcher-Jay0.372
43Heyward-Holliday-Adams-Carpenter-Peralta-Wong-Molina-Pitcher-Jay0.382
44Carpenter-Heyward-Holliday-Adams-Wong-Peralta-Jay-Molina-Pitcher0.388
45Carpenter-Wong-Holliday-Adams-Heyward-Molina-Peralta-Pitcher-Jay0.403
46Peralta-Heyward-Adams-Holliday-Carpenter-Wong-Molina-Pitcher-Jay0.433
47Heyward-Carpenter-Holliday-Adams-Wong-Molina-Jay-Pitcher-Peralta0.439
48Heyward-Peralta-Carpenter-Adams-Holliday-Wong-Molina-Pitcher-Jay0.469
49Heyward-Wong-Holliday-Adams-Carpenter-Molina-Peralta-Pitcher-Jay0.477
50Carpenter-Heyward-Holliday-Adams-Molina-Wong-Peralta-Pitcher-Jay0.485
......
MLBDCCarpenter-Heyward-Holliday-Adams-Molina-Peralta-Jay-Wong-Pitcher1.090
BADAdams-Peralta-Jay-Wong-Molina-Carpenter-Holliday-Heyward-Pitcher3.661
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              Batting Order Frequence Table
1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th
Heyward171602150000
Carpenter101032160000
Holliday0242213000
Adams04225120700
Wong86001071009
Peralta21102261071
Molina002021417150
Jay131100206018
Pitcher00000002822

Synergy:
10 most common back to back occurrences in lineup.
RankOccurrencesPlayer 1Player 2
132MolinaPitcher
228HollidayAdams
326PitcherJay
419HeywardHolliday
519HollidayCarpenter
619WongMolina
717PeraltaPitcher
815CarpenterHeyward
915JayHeyward
1014PitcherWong
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10 most common back to back to back occurrences in lineup.
RankOccurrencesPlayer 1Player 2Player 3
116MolinaPitcherJay
213HeywardHollidayAdams
313WongMolinaPitcher
412PeraltaMolinaPitcher
512PitcherJayHeyward
610CarpenterHeywardHolliday
710HollidayCarpenterAdams
810PeraltaWongMolina
910PeraltaPitcherJay
10t9CarpenterHollidayAdams
10t9MolinaPitcherWong
10t9PitcherWongJay
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                                         Analysis

Heyward:  Slots well at the top of the lineup as either the leadoff or second hitter.  With others better suited for the 3rd or 4th spot in the lineup, Heyward also slots in well as the 5th hitter but should not hit in the 6th thru 9th slots.

Carpenter: Surpsingly does well at cleanup along with Adams but also does well among the 1-2-5 spots like Heyward.  Carpenter shows a lot of lineup versatility if there is such a thing.

Holliday:  Should hit third.

Adams: The teams best cleanup hitter but can also move down to fifth in the lineup if need be.

Wong: No one great spot for Wong but he probably shows the most "lineup versatility" as anyone on the team  There are 6 lineup slots where Wong appeared at least 6 times.  When it comes to batting order spots, Wong is definitely the Nomad of the team.  Wong even makes 9 appearances hitting 9th, one spot behind the pitcher.

Peralta:  The simulator likes Peralta hitting 6th as he provides some pretty decent back of the lineup power.  He should definitely stay out of the top five spots in the lineup.

Molina:  6-7-8 are the best spots for Molina as only Heyward and Molina have a 14 or higher on their third most frequented lineup spot.

Jay:  Looks like the simulator likes Jay setting the table whether it be as the leadoff hitter or the quasi-leadoff hitter batting 9th.

Pitcher:  With Jay and Wong making appearances in the 9th spot the simulator pretty much calls it a crapshoot at hitting the pitcher 8th or 9th.  The pitcher should bat immediately after Molina does.

3 comments:

  1. Anonymous9:46 AM

    Good stuff. Are you using fangraphs anticipated 2015 batting stats or historical performance? I'm always surprised to see Yadi and his five yr OBP of 0.350 so far down in most lineups.

    ReplyDelete
  2. 2015 Steamer Projections and it is against right handed starting pitcher. Steamer projects his OBP as 0.334 and it will be lower vs RHP. Thanks for the thoughtful question.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Anonymous8:25 AM

    Thank you for the analysis. Steamer only sees improvement from Heyward and Wong it appears (I guess that's mostly b/c of age). If Carp really only bats 0.275 vs his career 0.293, then I can see putting Heyward at the top. Big fan of Jay batting 9th to set the table the second time through.

    ReplyDelete