Now I move on to the best lineups for the Angels. I am using my simulator to see what batting order it thinks gives the Angels the best chance of winning. Methodology: Go through each possible lineup given the nine most likely starters as listed by MLB Depth Charts website and have the simulator play tens of thousands of games using each lineup against a fictitious but static opponent and see which Angels lineup wins the most games. Now keep in mind there are nine factorial (or 362,880) possible lineups. My simulator is fast, but it is not fast enough to look at all possible lineups while simulating a high enough sample size of games to get a reliable result. So what I did was put in a few limitations, like not allowing a lineup that had Mike Trout batting 8th or 9th and not allowing a lineup that had Albert Pujols batting 8th or 9th and not allowing lineups that had left handed hitters hitting back to back (unless they were paired batting 9th and 1st). This cut down on the possible number of lineups but still gave me too many lineups. So I then took a random sample of 10,000 lineups that met the filter I was using. So there still may be a few good lineups out there but of those 10,000 lineups here are what the simulator calculated to be the best 50. Keep in mind that the simulator is using 2015 Steamer Projections. The simulator plays actual baseball games and takes pretty much everything you can think of (that is meaningful) into account. The results are sorted by wins per 162 games behind the top ranking lineup.
12/28 Edit: @Tangotiger has asked to see how the worst lineup and the reverse of the best lineup do on this chart so they will be added to the bottom of the table.
Top 50 Lineups
| Rank | Lineup | Wins/162 Behind |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Calhoun-Trout-Joyce-Pujols-Hamilton-Freese-Rutledge-Aybar-Iannetta | 0 |
| 2 | Trout-Joyce-Pujols-Aybar-Calhoun-Rutledge-Iannetta-Freese-Hamilton | 0.032 |
| 3 | Trout-Aybar-Hamilton-Pujols-Calhoun-Freese-Iannetta-Joyce-Rutledge | 0.146 |
| 4 | Joyce-Trout-Calhoun-Pujols-Hamilton-Rutledge-Iannetta-Aybar-Freese | 0.152 |
| 5 | Joyce-Trout-Pujols-Hamilton-Aybar-Calhoun-Rutledge-Freese-Iannetta | 0.156 |
| 6 | Aybar-Trout-Hamilton-Pujols-Joyce-Rutledge-Calhoun-Freese-Iannetta | 0.166 |
| 7 | Calhoun-Trout-Aybar-Pujols-Joyce-Iannetta-Freese-Rutledge-Hamilton | 0.192 |
| 8 | Joyce-Trout-Hamilton-Pujols-Aybar-Calhoun-Rutledge-Freese-Iannetta | 0.194 |
| 9 | Trout-Calhoun-Pujols-Joyce-Aybar-Hamilton-Rutledge-Iannetta-Freese | 0.203 |
| 10 | Joyce-Trout-Hamilton-Pujols-Calhoun-Rutledge-Iannetta-Aybar-Freese | 0.246 |
| 11 | Aybar-Calhoun-Pujols-Hamilton-Trout-Rutledge-Freese-Iannetta-Joyce | 0.277 |
| 12 | Joyce-Trout-Pujols-Calhoun-Iannetta-Hamilton-Rutledge-Aybar-Freese | 0.287 |
| 13 | Trout-Pujols-Freese-Hamilton-Iannetta-Joyce-Aybar-Calhoun-Rutledge | 0.327 |
| 14 | Trout-Rutledge-Pujols-Joyce-Aybar-Calhoun-Iannetta-Freese-Hamilton | 0.334 |
| 15 | Trout-Calhoun-Pujols-Aybar-Hamilton-Iannetta-Rutledge-Freese-Joyce | 0.341 |
| 16 | Hamilton-Rutledge-Pujols-Joyce-Trout-Calhoun-Aybar-Iannetta-Freese | 0.347 |
| 17 | Hamilton-Trout-Calhoun-Pujols-Joyce-Rutledge-Freese-Aybar-Iannetta | 0.381 |
| 18 | Calhoun-Trout-Pujols-Hamilton-Freese-Iannetta-Rutledge-Aybar-Joyce | 0.411 |
| 19 | Calhoun-Aybar-Hamilton-Pujols-Trout-Rutledge-Freese-Iannetta-Joyce | 0.417 |
| 20 | Trout-Calhoun-Pujols-Joyce-Rutledge-Iannetta-Freese-Aybar-Hamilton | 0.420 |
| 21 | Joyce-Aybar-Calhoun-Pujols-Trout-Rutledge-Freese-Iannetta-Hamilton | 0.452 |
| 22 | Trout-Calhoun-Aybar-Pujols-Rutledge-Hamilton-Iannetta-Freese-Joyce | 0.456 |
| 23 | Trout-Aybar-Calhoun-Pujols-Hamilton-Iannetta-Joyce-Rutledge-Freese | 0.468 |
| 24 | Trout-Hamilton-Pujols-Joyce-Aybar-Iannetta-Rutledge-Calhoun-Freese | 0.478 |
| 25 | Pujols-Trout-Hamilton-Aybar-Calhoun-Freese-Iannetta-Rutledge-Joyce | 0.48 |
| 26 | Trout-Joyce-Pujols-Hamilton-Iannetta-Calhoun-Rutledge-Freese-Aybar | 0.481 |
| 27 | Joyce-Trout-Freese-Pujols-Hamilton-Aybar-Rutledge-Calhoun-Iannetta | 0.482 |
| 28 | Joyce-Trout-Aybar-Calhoun-Pujols-Hamilton-Iannetta-Freese-Rutledge | 0.485 |
| 29 | Joyce-Trout-Aybar-Pujols-Calhoun-Iannetta-Freese-Rutledge-Hamilton | 0.491 |
| 30 | Hamilton-Trout-Joyce-Pujols-Calhoun-Aybar-Rutledge-Iannetta-Freese | 0.492 |
| 31 | Calhoun-Trout-Pujols-Hamilton-Iannetta-Freese-Rutledge-Aybar-Joyce | 0.512 |
| 32 | Calhoun-Aybar-Pujols-Joyce-Trout-Rutledge-Freese-Iannetta-Hamilton | 0.522 |
| 33 | Trout-Joyce-Pujols-Hamilton-Rutledge-Iannetta-Calhoun-Freese-Aybar | 0.526 |
| 34 | Trout-Pujols-Calhoun-Freese-Hamilton-Rutledge-Joyce-Iannetta-Aybar | 0.529 |
| 35 | Joyce-Pujols-Freese-Calhoun-Trout-Hamilton-Rutledge-Iannetta-Aybar | 0.535 |
| 36 | Calhoun-Trout-Freese-Pujols-Joyce-Aybar-Iannetta-Rutledge-Hamilton | 0.542 |
| 37 | Hamilton-Trout-Joyce-Pujols-Calhoun-Freese-Rutledge-Iannetta-Aybar | 0.544 |
| 38 | Freese-Aybar-Pujols-Joyce-Trout-Calhoun-Iannetta-Rutledge-Hamilton | 0.545 |
| 39 | Trout-Iannetta-Hamilton-Pujols-Rutledge-Calhoun-Aybar-Freese-Joyce | 0.548 |
| 40 | Freese-Joyce-Pujols-Hamilton-Trout-Calhoun-Iannetta-Rutledge-Aybar | 0.553 |
| 41 | Calhoun-Freese-Pujols-Hamilton-Trout-Joyce-Rutledge-Iannetta-Aybar | 0.569 |
| 42 | Calhoun-Trout-Hamilton-Pujols-Iannetta-Freese-Joyce-Rutledge-Aybar | 0.581 |
| 43 | Calhoun-Trout-Pujols-Hamilton-Rutledge-Joyce-Iannetta-Aybar-Freese | 0.588 |
| 44 | Iannetta-Rutledge-Pujols-Joyce-Trout-Hamilton-Aybar-Calhoun-Freese | 0.612 |
| 45 | Trout-Joyce-Freese-Pujols-Rutledge-Calhoun-Aybar-Iannetta-Hamilton | 0.643 |
| 46 | Joyce-Trout-Aybar-Pujols-Hamilton-Freese-Iannetta-Calhoun-Rutledge | 0.644 |
| 47 | Trout-Calhoun-Pujols-Aybar-Rutledge-Joyce-Iannetta-Freese-Hamilton | 0.662 |
| 48 | Calhoun-Trout-Aybar-Hamilton-Pujols-Iannetta-Joyce-Rutledge-Freese | 0.675 |
| 49 | Trout-Freese-Hamilton-Pujols-Joyce-Aybar-Iannetta-Calhoun-Rutledge | 0.680 |
| 50 | Calhoun-Rutledge-Hamilton-Pujols-Joyce-Freese-Trout-Aybar-Iannetta | 0.689 |
| ** | *** | *** |
| Reverse | Iannetta-Aybar-Rutledge-Freese-Hamilton-Pujols-Joyce-Trout-Calhoun | 1.771 |
| Worst | Iannetta-Freese-Aybar-Rutledge-Calhoun-Hamilton-Pujols-Trout-Joyce | 2.033 |
Analysis: The first thing that sticks out to me is that the simulator does not like Mike Trout hitting 3rd or 4th for some reason. It seems to only like him hitting 2nd, 1st or 5th. It could be that it likes Mike Trout on base for when Albert Pujols and or Josh Hamilton coming up to bat. And there are three players (Matt Joyce, Erick Aybar and David Freese) who get at least one listing at each spot in the batting order and Kole Calhoun slots into 8 different spots. Pujols bats 3rd or 4th in 44 out of 50 scenarios and Trout bats 1st or 2nd in 39 out of 50. Calhoun and Joyce are the next two hitters that you see at the top of the lineup frequently. And at the bottom of the order you Iannetta, Freese, Rutledge and Aybar the most.
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Batting Order Frequency Table
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | 7th | 8th | 9th | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calhoun | 12 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Joyce | 11 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 8 |
| Trout | 17 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Pujols | 1 | 3 | 21 | 23 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Hamilton | 4 | 1 | 10 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 |
| Aybar | 2 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 8 |
| Freese | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 12 | 11 |
| Rutledge | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 15 | 9 | 5 |
| Iannetta | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 12 | 7 |
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