Thursday, July 03, 2014

Park Factor Surprises


Nobody likes surprises, right? Unless it is your birthday and then maybe you do. But when it comes to park factors (runs) it is often difficult to nail down a teams park factor and randomness plays havoc with what smart people think the park factors should be. As you know, I keep track of the runs scored portion of a teams park factor along with a Vegas park factor that I reverse engineer from each teams over/under, where I replace the actual runs scored in each game with the Vegas over/under total. This gives me another aspect of the park factor. The aspect of the wisdom of the crowd of the people who are actually risking their hard earned money on knowing how many runs scored each game is likely to have. I love comparing things like over/unders, expected win totals and player projections to the people who risk their money on each game. What I have listed in the table below is each teams current 2014 park factor for runs scored along with their Vegas park factor. The table is sorted by the most similar park factors with the biggest surprises at the bottom of the table. Enjoy!

TeamActual PFVegas PF2014 Delta
Nationals0.9900.9880.0026
Reds1.0391.0320.0064
Padres0.8820.8730.0093
Blue Jays1.0881.0740.0136
Marlins1.0321.0180.0140
Angels0.9630.9770.0146
White Sox1.0100.9900.0206
Diamdonbacks1.0861.0640.0214
Giants0.8930.9150.0221
Indians1.0220.9870.0351
Braves0.9830.9440.0391
Tigers1.0731.0310.0429
Royals0.9521.0040.0519
Rangers1.0351.1020.0671
Athletics0.9970.9270.0699
Red Sox0.9801.0550.0753
Dodgers0.9900.9110.0783
Mariners0.8530.9360.0831
Astros1.1301.0440.0855
Cubs0.9491.0380.0888
Yankees0.9641.0560.0920
Mets0.8120.9130.1011
Twins1.1151.0100.1056
Rays1.0320.9230.1092
Pirates1.0720.9580.1139
Brewers0.8741.0060.1317
Rockies1.4371.2830.1535
Phillies0.8220.9760.1539
Orioles0.8201.0330.2137
Cardinals1.2280.9640.2642
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