Park Factor Surprises

Nobody likes surprises, right? Unless it is your birthday and then maybe you do. But when it comes to park factors (runs) it is often difficult to nail down a teams park factor and randomness plays havoc with what smart people think the park factors should be. As you know, I keep track of the runs scored portion of a teams park factor along with a Vegas park factor that I reverse engineer from each teams over/under, where I replace the actual runs scored in each game with the Vegas over/under total. This gives me another aspect of the park factor. The aspect of the wisdom of the crowd of the people who are actually risking their hard earned money on knowing how many runs scored each game is likely to have. I love comparing things like over/unders, expected win totals and player projections to the people who risk their money on each game. What I have listed in the table below is each teams current 2014 park factor for runs scored along with their Vegas park factor. The table is sorted by the most similar park factors with the biggest surprises at the bottom of the table. Enjoy!

Team	Actual PF	Vegas PF	2014 Delta
Nationals	0.990	0.988	0.0026
Reds	1.039	1.032	0.0064
Padres	0.882	0.873	0.0093
Blue Jays	1.088	1.074	0.0136
Marlins	1.032	1.018	0.0140
Angels	0.963	0.977	0.0146
White Sox	1.010	0.990	0.0206
Diamdonbacks	1.086	1.064	0.0214
Giants	0.893	0.915	0.0221
Indians	1.022	0.987	0.0351
Braves	0.983	0.944	0.0391
Tigers	1.073	1.031	0.0429
Royals	0.952	1.004	0.0519
Rangers	1.035	1.102	0.0671
Athletics	0.997	0.927	0.0699
Red Sox	0.980	1.055	0.0753
Dodgers	0.990	0.911	0.0783
Mariners	0.853	0.936	0.0831
Astros	1.130	1.044	0.0855
Cubs	0.949	1.038	0.0888
Yankees	0.964	1.056	0.0920
Mets	0.812	0.913	0.1011
Twins	1.115	1.010	0.1056
Rays	1.032	0.923	0.1092
Pirates	1.072	0.958	0.1139
Brewers	0.874	1.006	0.1317
Rockies	1.437	1.283	0.1535
Phillies	0.822	0.976	0.1539
Orioles	0.820	1.033	0.2137
Cardinals	1.228	0.964	0.2642

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