Game Listings: Ranked by highest to lowest expected total runs
| Away | Home | Away SP | Home SP | Fave | ML | ML | Win % | O/U | Over Vig | Under Vig | Over % | Total Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | TEX | Jarred Cosart | Tony Scheppers | TEX | -158 | 153 | 60.86 | 9.5 | -110 | 100 | 51.22 | 9.47 |
| TOR | BAL | Dustin Hutchison | Bud Norris | BAL | -119 | 114 | 53.81 | 9 | 105 | -115 | 47.62 | 8.76 |
| BOS | NYA | John Lackey | Hiroki Kuroda | NYA | -110 | 105 | 51.81 | 8.5 | -109 | -101 | 50.98 | 8.46 |
| CLE | CHA | Justin Masterson | Felix Paulino | CLE | -127 | 122 | 55.46 | 8 | -122 | 112 | 53.92 | 8.14 |
| LAN | ARI | Zack Greinke | Wade Miley | LAN | -129 | 124 | 55.85 | 8 | -112 | 102 | 51.69 | 8.00 |
| PIT | MIL | Edinson Volquez | Yovani Gallardo | MIL | -152 | 147 | 59.92 | 8 | -110 | 100 | 51.22 | 7.97 |
| MIA | PHI | Nathan Eovaldi | John Pettibone | PHI | -113 | 108 | 52.49 | 8 | -105 | -105 | 50.00 | 7.90 |
| COL | SF | Brian Anderson | Matt Cain | SF | -138 | 133 | 57.54 | 7.5 | -115 | 105 | 52.38 | 7.54 |
| KC | MIN | James Shields | Ricky Nolasco | KC | -144 | 139 | 58.59 | 7.5 | -107 | -103 | 50.50 | 7.43 |
| TB | CIN | Alex Cobb | Alfredo Simon | TB | -128 | 123 | 55.65 | 7.5 | 100 | -110 | 48.78 | 7.33 |
| NYN | LAA | Jonathan Niese | Jered Weaver | LAA | -163 | 157 | 61.54 | 7.5 | 105 | -115 | 47.62 | 7.26 |
| OAK | SEA | Sonny Gray | Erasmo Ramirez | OAK | -114 | 109 | 52.72 | 7.5 | 112 | -122 | 46.08 | 7.16 |
| WAS | ATL | Tyler Jordan | Alex Wood | ATL | -126 | 121 | 55.26 | 7 | -115 | 105 | 52.38 | 7.04 |
| CHN | STL | Carlos Villanueva | Adam Wainwright | STL | -213 | 203 | 67.53 | 7 | 109 | -119 | 46.73 | 6.70 |
| DET | SD | Justin Verlander | Ian Kennedy | DET | -131 | 126 | 56.24 | 6.5 | 107 | -117 | 47.17 | 6.23 |
Game Listings: Ranked by biggest to smallest win expectancies
| Away | Home | Away SP | Home SP | Fave | ML | ML | Win % | O/U | Over Vig | Under Vig | Over % | Total Runs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHN | STL | Carlos Villanueva | Adam Wainwright | STL | -213 | 203 | 67.53 | 7 | 109 | -119 | 46.73 | 6.70 |
| NYN | LAA | Jonathan Niese | Jered Weaver | LAA | -163 | 157 | 61.54 | 7.5 | 105 | -115 | 47.62 | 7.26 |
| HOU | TEX | Jarred Cosart | Tony Scheppers | TEX | -158 | 153 | 60.86 | 9.5 | -110 | 100 | 51.22 | 9.47 |
| PIT | MIL | Edinson Volquez | Yovani Gallardo | MIL | -152 | 147 | 59.92 | 8 | -110 | 100 | 51.22 | 7.97 |
| KC | MIN | James Shields | Ricky Nolasco | KC | -144 | 139 | 58.59 | 7.5 | -107 | -103 | 50.50 | 7.43 |
| COL | SF | Brian Anderson | Matt Cain | SF | -138 | 133 | 57.54 | 7.5 | -115 | 105 | 52.38 | 7.54 |
| DET | SD | Justin Verlander | Ian Kennedy | DET | -131 | 126 | 56.24 | 6.5 | 107 | -117 | 47.17 | 6.23 |
| LAN | ARI | Zack Greinke | Wade Miley | LAN | -129 | 124 | 55.85 | 8 | -112 | 102 | 51.69 | 8.00 |
| TB | CIN | Alex Cobb | Alfredo Simon | TB | -128 | 123 | 55.65 | 7.5 | 100 | -110 | 48.78 | 7.33 |
| CLE | CHA | Justin Masterson | Felix Paulino | CLE | -127 | 122 | 55.46 | 8 | -122 | 112 | 53.92 | 8.14 |
| WAS | ATL | Tyler Jordan | Alex Wood | ATL | -126 | 121 | 55.26 | 7 | -115 | 105 | 52.38 | 7.04 |
| TOR | BAL | Dustin Hutchison | Bud Norris | BAL | -119 | 114 | 53.81 | 9 | 105 | -115 | 47.62 | 8.76 |
| OAK | SEA | Sonny Gray | Erasmo Ramirez | OAK | -114 | 109 | 52.72 | 7.5 | 112 | -122 | 46.08 | 7.16 |
| MIA | PHI | Nathan Eovaldi | John Pettibone | PHI | -113 | 108 | 52.49 | 8 | -105 | -105 | 50.00 | 7.90 |
| BOS | NYA | John Lackey | Hiroki Kuroda | NYA | -110 | 105 | 51.81 | 8.5 | -109 | -101 | 50.98 | 8.46 |
How do you convert over under run total probabilities to expected total runs?
ReplyDeleteI have an algorithm that estimates it based off of past empirical data. It is just that though, an estimate - but I'm confident it is pretty accurate but not exact of course. Great question. :)
ReplyDelete