Next up on my look at most efficient lineups is the Texas Rangers. I used my baseball simulator to run millions of games through various different possible lineup scenarios to see which lineup it spit out as the most likely to win a game vs a RH and LH pitcher. Each lineup was simulated in 2.5 million games.
Please keep in mind that 2014 Steamer Projections were used as input, so if you don't like some of the results take it up with them.
Previous teams:
AL: Angels
NL: Mets
See the results after the break.
| vs RHP | vs LHP | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LF-Shin-Soo Choo | LF-Shin-Soo Choo | |
| 2 | CF-Leonys Martin | SS-Elvis Andrus | |
| 3 | 3B-Adrian Beltre | 3B-Adrian Beltre | |
| 4 | 1B-Prince Fielder | 1B-Prince Fielder | |
| 5 | RF-Alex Rios | RF-Alex Rios | |
| 6 | DH-Mitch Moreland | C-Geovany Soto | |
| 7 | C-Geovany Soto | 2B-Jurickson Profar | |
| 8 | 2B-Jurickson Profar | CF-Leonys Martin | |
| 9 | SS-Elvis Andrus | DH-Michael Choice |
Skinny: The core of the Rangers lineup stays the same vs both RH and LH pitchers with the on base machine of Shin-Soo Choo the obvious choice to lead off. The simulator likes the next three best hitters, Adrian Beltre, Prince Fielder and Alex Rios hitting 3rd, 4th and 5th respectively. Mitch Moreland and Geovany Soto may provide slightly more pop than Rios but Rios is the better overall hitter and that makes a difference. The lineup position that may be a little bit of a surprise is having Leonys Martin batting 2nd against RHP, dropping Elvis Andrus to 9th (2nd leadoff). Against LHP, Andrus does regain the 2nd spot in the lineup dropping Martin to 8th. I platooned the DH position between Mitch Moreland (playing against RHP) and Michael Choice (playing against LHP) and the simulator likes Moreland batting 6th but Choice batting 9th in a bit of an RBI role with both Profar and Martin hitting in front of him.
Washington will never bat Beltre 3rd. He will never bat Andrus 9th. Wash is as probable to sac bunt with 2 outs as not. Never forget, Michael Young and $10 million went to Philly to keep Wash from giving about the worst MLB player 670 PAs. That's how bad a manager Washington is.
ReplyDeleteGeesh, it's just a statistical projection. Very interesting nonetheless. Why don't you go manage your own MLB team to statistical perfection. Oh, that's right, you're not a candidate.
DeleteYeah, this is just the most efficient lineup given the projection system. There are things that managers will never do, but I am not going to limit myself due to that. :)
ReplyDelete