Saturday, May 19, 2012

Most Surprising Teams




A quick comparison of actual MLB teams winning percentage with their expected wins from Vegas to show which teams are the most and least surprising in a good and bad way. Vegas expected wins are calculated by adding up the chances of a team winning each game based on the Vegas money line. If a team had a 55% chance of winning a game according to Vegas they got 0.55 wins and 0.45 losses for that game. The teams at the top of this chart are way outperforming their win totals according to Vegas odds and the teams at the bottom of the chart are way underperforming. Teams in the middle are doing what they were expected to do.

TeamWinsLossesWPctVegas Exp WinsVegas Exp LossesVegas Exp WPctDiff Win Exp
Orioles27140.65918.24822.7520.4450.213
Dodgers27130.67521.73618.2640.5430.132
Indians23170.57519.70220.2980.4930.082
Braves25160.61021.69319.3070.5290.081
Rays24170.58521.26319.7370.5190.067
Pirates19210.47516.94023.0600.4240.051
Athletics20210.48817.93023.0700.4370.050
Astros18220.45016.29323.7070.4070.043
Mets20200.50018.43821.5620.4610.039
Nationals23170.57521.69018.3100.5420.033
Blue Jays23180.56121.70519.2950.5290.032
Rangers25160.61024.08516.9150.5870.022
Reds21180.53820.13518.8650.5160.022
Giants21190.52520.75719.2430.5190.006
Marlins21190.52521.16418.8360.529-0.004
White Sox20210.48820.26320.7370.494-0.006
Mariners18240.42918.31623.6840.436-0.008
Cardinals21190.52521.78018.2200.545-0.020
Royals16230.41017.25921.7410.443-0.032
Red Sox20200.50021.45618.5440.536-0.036
Phillies21200.51222.71918.2810.554-0.042
Yankees21190.52522.69317.3070.567-0.042
Diamondbacks18230.43920.03720.9630.489-0.050
Twins14260.35016.01423.9860.400-0.050
Cubs15250.37517.58722.4130.440-0.065
Tigers19210.47522.26217.7380.557-0.082
Brewers17230.42521.32718.6730.533-0.108
Padres14270.34118.53922.4610.452-0.111
Rockies15240.38519.62819.3720.503-0.119
Angels18230.43923.34017.6600.569-0.130

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