Most Surprising Teams

A quick comparison of actual MLB teams winning percentage with their expected wins from Vegas to show which teams are the most and least surprising in a good and bad way. Vegas expected wins are calculated by adding up the chances of a team winning each game based on the Vegas money line. If a team had a 55% chance of winning a game according to Vegas they got 0.55 wins and 0.45 losses for that game. The teams at the top of this chart are way outperforming their win totals according to Vegas odds and the teams at the bottom of the chart are way underperforming. Teams in the middle are doing what they were expected to do.

Team	Wins	Losses	WPct	Vegas Exp Wins	Vegas Exp Losses	Vegas Exp WPct	Diff Win Exp
Orioles	27	14	0.659	18.248	22.752	0.445	0.213
Dodgers	27	13	0.675	21.736	18.264	0.543	0.132
Indians	23	17	0.575	19.702	20.298	0.493	0.082
Braves	25	16	0.610	21.693	19.307	0.529	0.081
Rays	24	17	0.585	21.263	19.737	0.519	0.067
Pirates	19	21	0.475	16.940	23.060	0.424	0.051
Athletics	20	21	0.488	17.930	23.070	0.437	0.050
Astros	18	22	0.450	16.293	23.707	0.407	0.043
Mets	20	20	0.500	18.438	21.562	0.461	0.039
Nationals	23	17	0.575	21.690	18.310	0.542	0.033
Blue Jays	23	18	0.561	21.705	19.295	0.529	0.032
Rangers	25	16	0.610	24.085	16.915	0.587	0.022
Reds	21	18	0.538	20.135	18.865	0.516	0.022
Giants	21	19	0.525	20.757	19.243	0.519	0.006
Marlins	21	19	0.525	21.164	18.836	0.529	-0.004
White Sox	20	21	0.488	20.263	20.737	0.494	-0.006
Mariners	18	24	0.429	18.316	23.684	0.436	-0.008
Cardinals	21	19	0.525	21.780	18.220	0.545	-0.020
Royals	16	23	0.410	17.259	21.741	0.443	-0.032
Red Sox	20	20	0.500	21.456	18.544	0.536	-0.036
Phillies	21	20	0.512	22.719	18.281	0.554	-0.042
Yankees	21	19	0.525	22.693	17.307	0.567	-0.042
Diamondbacks	18	23	0.439	20.037	20.963	0.489	-0.050
Twins	14	26	0.350	16.014	23.986	0.400	-0.050
Cubs	15	25	0.375	17.587	22.413	0.440	-0.065
Tigers	19	21	0.475	22.262	17.738	0.557	-0.082
Brewers	17	23	0.425	21.327	18.673	0.533	-0.108
Padres	14	27	0.341	18.539	22.461	0.452	-0.111
Rockies	15	24	0.385	19.628	19.372	0.503	-0.119
Angels	18	23	0.439	23.340	17.660	0.569	-0.130