Sunday, May 13, 2012

May 13th Simulations




2012 MLB Simulations

VisitorsHomeProbable Pitching MatchupFavoriteVegas Win ProbSimulator Win ProbFinal Score
LAATEXJered Weaver vs Neftali FelizTEX55.65%58.56%TBD
CLEBOSJustin Masterson vs Daniel BardBOS56.04%49.92%TBD
COLLANAlex White vs Ted LillyLAN59.60%NATBD
KCCHADanny Duffy vs Phil HumberCHA54.85%58.15%TBD
SEANYAKevin Millwood vs Andy PettitteNYA63.57%68.15%TBD
WASCINEdwin Jackson vs Bronson ArroyoCIN55.26%50.41%TBD
NYNFLAJohn Niese vs Carlos ZambranoFLA57.17%60.21%TBD
HOUPITWandy Rodriguez vs A.J. BurnettPIT53.16%55.11%TBD
SDPHIJeff Suppan vs Cole HamelsPHI65.81%63.15%TBD
TBBALJames Shields vs Jake ArrietaTB54.23%49.66%TBD
CHNMILJeff Samardzija vs Marco EstradaMIL53.60%57.16%TBD
TORMINRicky Romero vs Scott DiamondTOR59.60%NATBD
ATLSTLTommy Hanson vs Lance LynnSTL59.10%53.51%TBD
DETOAKJustin Verlander vs Jarrod ParkerDET62.62%61.41%TBD
SFARIBarry Zito vs Joe SaundersARI57.54%59.84%TBD

Current ROI: 9.40%

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2 comments:

  1. Anonymous2:21 AM

    Wondering how you calc. ROI. Is it the return for games above a certain implied edge? If so, what threshold do you use?

    ReplyDelete
  2. Calculating bet sizes based off of a modified Kelly criterion system.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

    And then ROI is simply...

    (Total winnings / Amount of total bets)

    ReplyDelete