The 2011 All-Flub Teams

Recently, Steve Slowinski of Fangraphs authored an article where he listed the 2011 All-Flub Teams. Steve included both an NL and AL team of players who are the kings of underachievers from both leagues. In the article Steve posed the question of which of these two teams would win a head to head matchup. I volunteered to run the two teams through my baseball simulator to find out. I ran two simulations, one with each league's flops as the home team. I selected Sean O'Sullivan as the American League's top flop pitcher and Armando Galarraga as the National League's starting pitcher. Each matchup was simulated 100K times. I also used neutral park factors for all of the simulated games. Below are the results as well as some of the stats.

Away	Home	Starting Pitchers	Favorite	Win Probability	Total Runs
American	National	S.O'Sullivan vs A.Galarraga	National	51.567%	9.69
National	American	A.Galarraga vs S.O'Sullivan	American	56.979%	9.71

Results: The simulator thinks that the American League team is slightly better. If you average the win probability of the away/home series the American League wins 52.706% of the time, with right around 9.7 runs scoring on average. Below are some of the box score stats taken from the matchup where the National League was the home team.

Pitchers Boxscores

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Sean O'Sullivan	5.697	3.025	1.982	6.841	0.748	91.555	4.888
Jon Rauch	0.445	0.343	0.101	0.465	0.051	6.82	3.819
Mike Gonzalez	0.413	0.364	0.168	0.432	0.063	6.791	4.641
Daniel Schlereth	0.67	0.573	0.352	0.721	0.108	11.458	5.158
Jason Berken	0.419	0.317	0.144	0.471	0.071	6.775	4.912
Adam Russell	0.699	0.365	0.324	0.805	0.058	11.53	4.632
Joe Nathan	0.343	0.298	0.119	0.365	0.052	5.551	4.484
Andy Sonnanstine	0.018	0.009	0.006	0.022	0.003	0.286	5.647
Armando Galarraga	5.808	3.164	2.146	7.073	0.621	94.435	4.609
Ryan Franklin	0.409	0.3	0.085	0.467	0.061	6.337	4.298
Michael Dunn	0.429	0.445	0.193	0.414	0.044	7.149	3.8
Pat Neshek	0.712	0.564	0.367	0.784	0.087	12.131	4.745
Sean Burnett	0.483	0.351	0.168	0.535	0.045	7.771	3.996
Miguel Batista	0.97	0.637	0.46	1.122	0.086	16.277	4.461
John Grabow	0.354	0.228	0.158	0.42	0.044	5.916	4.856
Aneury Rodriguez	0.007	0.005	0.002	0.008	0.001	0.114	4.366

Hitters Boxscore

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	BB	SO	wOBA	BABIP
Juan Pierre	4.57	1.406	1.138	0.17	0.039	0.06	0.399	0.42	0.371	0.343	0.325
Chone Figgins	4.389	1.368	0.959	0.324	0.02	0.064	0.466	0.406	0.607	0.357	0.351
Alex Rios	4.457	1.374	0.918	0.323	0.019	0.114	0.59	0.279	0.54	0.354	0.331
Justin Morneau	4.2	1.27	0.773	0.327	0.011	0.16	0.673	0.481	0.588	0.379	0.322
Adam Dunn	3.923	1.013	0.497	0.29	0.004	0.221	0.694	0.651	1.178	0.375	0.314
David Murphy	3.962	1.218	0.813	0.237	0.02	0.148	0.601	0.491	0.589	0.382	0.332
Orlando Cabrera	4.08	1.168	0.778	0.297	0.013	0.081	0.503	0.221	0.47	0.327	0.308
Cliff Pennington	3.866	1.092	0.754	0.239	0.036	0.063	0.449	0.325	0.64	0.331	0.325
Jeff Mathis	3.785	0.915	0.594	0.238	0.006	0.077	0.429	0.305	0.711	0.295	0.28
Mike Cameron	4.31	1.245	0.694	0.375	0.043	0.133	0.497	0.381	0.615	0.36	0.312
Ryan Spilborghs	4.129	1.226	0.76	0.293	0.017	0.157	0.538	0.442	0.671	0.371	0.324
Aubrey Huff	4.032	1.151	0.719	0.246	0.029	0.158	0.56	0.509	0.549	0.368	0.299
Chris Johnson	4.157	1.231	0.766	0.317	0.031	0.118	0.589	0.23	0.733	0.348	0.337
Raul Ibanez	3.88	1.132	0.672	0.272	0.028	0.16	0.614	0.447	0.623	0.374	0.314
Casey McGehee	3.832	1.113	0.69	0.28	0.004	0.139	0.561	0.331	0.548	0.356	0.31
Bill Hall	3.761	1.037	0.59	0.298	0.034	0.115	0.498	0.296	0.697	0.343	0.313
Yuniesky Betancourt	3.761	1.067	0.699	0.242	0.034	0.093	0.464	0.187	0.364	0.329	0.295
Dioner Navarro	3.473	0.918	0.592	0.227	0.019	0.081	0.398	0.373	0.493	0.33	0.289

And here is a bar chart showing how the run totals are distributed. The x-axis the total runs scored in the game and the y-axis is how many occurrences this happened. As you can tell from the chart a run total of 7 and 9 runs is the most common occurrence.