March 31st Opening Day Simulations ...
| Visitors | Home | Probable Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Simulator Win Prob | Units Bet | Final Score |
| Giants | Dodgers | T.Lincecum vs C.Kershaw | Dodgers | 50.50% | 54.59% | LAN/0.8 | LAN 2-1 |
| Tigers | Yankees | J.Verlander vs C.Sabathia | Yankees | 59.35% | 58.91% | 0.0 | NYA 6-3 |
| Royals | Angels | L.Hochevar vs J.Weaver | Angels | 58.51% | 57.60% | 0.0 | LAA 4-2 |
| Braves | Nationals | D.Lowe vs L.Hernandez | Braves | 58.33% | 41.10% | WAS/3.4 | ATL 2-0 |
| Padres | Cardinals | T.Stauffer vs C.Carpenter | Cardinals | 65.52% | 60.79% | SD/0.6 | SD 5-3 |
| Brewers | Reds | Y.Gallardo vs E.Volquez | Reds | 53.27% | 56.88% | CIN/1.0 | CIN 7-6 |
Seasonal ROI: 0.00%
Dodgers simulation details/contest at True Blue LA
MLB Scoreboard
Happy Opening Day! There has to be a typo in the Braves/Nats game, right? If not, what does the sim see that everyone else doesn't?
ReplyDeleteJosh, yeah - simulator says the Braves are way overrated by Vegas in this game. Probably not by 17% win expectancy though. I'd split the difference. :)
ReplyDeleteNationals offense is right up there with Braves. Better defense for the Nats at key positions of 3B, CF, 2B and C (but not at SS).
Pitching matchup is even if you use FIP and solid edge to Lowe if you use xFIP.
Home field advantage swings to Washington.
An argument could be made to favor the Braves but not at 58.33%. I see the line is moving towards the Nats side slightly this morning.
Thanks for the comment!