NLCS Preview, Tim Lincecum

Tim Lincecum's 2010 Vegas Storyline ..

The Giants are likely to be sent off by the oddsmakers as a rather large underdog in Game #1 against the Phillies. The opening line gives the Giants a 37.7% win probability. You may wonder how many times Tim Lincecum has been an underdog in games he has pitched in this year, and have the Giants ever been this big of an underdog with Lincecum starting?

To answer this question I pulled up my 2010 MLB odds database for a detailed look. On August 21st, mired in a bit of a pitching slump, Tim Lincecum took to the hill in St Louis facing off against none other than Chris Carpenter. The closing line had the Giants win probability at 39.37% in a game that the Cardinals won. So this Game #1 start against the Phillies will likely be the largest underdog the Giants have been this season in a Tim Lincecum started game. That does make some sense though, as he is facing off against Roy Halladay, a potent Phillies offense, all while on the road.

Below is a more detailed look at how Vegas handicapped all of Tim Lincecum's 2010 starts, plus the results. Please keep in mind I missed two weeks worth of June games while I was vacationing in China, so those games are not included.

Date	Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Giants Win Prob	Actual
4/11	Braves	Giants	K.Kawakami vs T.Lincecum	65.87%	Win
4/17	Giants	Dodgers	T.Lincecum vs C.Haeger	60.78%	Win
4/23	Cardinals	Giants	J.Garcia vs T.Lincecum	61.98%	Win
4/28	Phillies	Giants	C.Hamels vs T.Lincecum	61.83%	Loss
5/4	Giants	Marlins	T.Lincecum vs A.Sanchez	62.83%	Win
5/9	Giants	Mets	T.Lincecum vs O.Perez	64.79%	Win
5/19	Astros	Giants	R.Oswalt vs T.Lincecum	68.15%	Win
5/20	Giants	DBacks	T.Lincecum vs R.Lopez	62.69%	Loss
5/26	Nationals	Giants	L.Atilano vs T.Lincecum	72.97%	Loss
5/31	Rockies	Giants	U.Jimenez vs T.Lincecum	50.50%	Loss
6/6	Giants	Pirates	T.Lincecum vs R.Ohlendorf	65.64%	Win
7/2	Giants	Rockies	T.Lincecum vs J.Chacin	54.95%	Loss
7/7	Giants	Brewers	T.Lincecum vs C.Narveson	56.52%	Win
7/15	Mets	Giants	R.Dickey vs T.Lincecum	63.24%	Win
7/20	Giants	Dodgers	T.Lincecum vs C.Kershaw	46.30%	Win
7/25	Giants	DBacks	T.Lincecum vs B.Enright	57.98%	Win
7/30	Dodgers	Giants	C.Monasterios vs T.Lincecum	63.90%	Win
8/5	Giants	Braves	T.Lincecum vs J.Jurrjens	51.22%	Loss
8/10	Cubs	Giants	R.Dempster vs T.Lincecum	63.64%	Loss
8/15	Padres	Giants	W.LeBlanc vs T.Lincecum	63.90%	Loss
8/21	Giants	Cardinals	T.Lincecum vs C.Carpenter	39.37%	Loss
8/27	DBacks	Giants	B.Enright vs T.Lincecum	64.16%	Loss
9/1	Rockies	Giants	U.Jimenez vs T.Lincecum	46.51%	Win
9/7	Giants	DBacks	T.Lincecum vs B.Enright	54.13%	Win
9/12	Giants	Padres	T.Lincecum vs M.Latos	42.74%	Win
9/18	Brewers	Giants	Y.Gallardo vs T.Lincecum	58.51%	Loss
9/24	Giants	Rockies	T.Lincecum vs J.Chacin	45.25%	Win
9/29	DBacks	Giants	I.Kennedy vs T.Lincecum	66.10%	Win

The average win probability of games that Tim Lincecum started was 58.44% and the actual win percentage for the Giants in games that Tim Lincecum started was 60.71%.