What started as an exercise for my baseball simulator to play every game on the Dodgers 2010 schedule has now turned into an exercise to play every teams entire 2010 schedule. I had to take some steps, which may cut into the efficiency of the exercise to prevent this from becoming too time consuming.
Basic methodology: Each teams starting rotation for this exercise will be going 7 deep. The top starters will be getting more starts, but occasionally I have the 6th and 7th starters on the depth charts subbing in for one of the other starters. Each team uses the same algorithm for determining which pitcher starts. I am using each teams projected starting lineup for each game. Bench players are only used in pinch hitting roles. In reality there will be injuries and days off to regulars that would force bench players to start. I went the easy route here to save time. I don't think it should effect the results too much, but feel free to dock or add a few wins to teams you think have superior benches.
The results will be posted in fractions of wins and losses as well as winning percentage up to the date of games that I have finished simulating. I am simulating each game 10,000 times.
Results: Season is complete!
| 2010 Season Simulated | ||||
| Place | Team | Wins | Losses | PCT |
| NL West | ||||
| 1 | Dodgers | 93.8 | 68.2 | .579 |
| 2 | Rockies | 86.7 | 75.3 | .535 |
| 3 | DBacks | 82.7 | 79.3 | .510 |
| 4 | Giants | 75.6 | 86.4 | .466 |
| 5 | Padres | 72.3 | 89.7 | .446 |
| NL Central | ||||
| 1 | Cubs | 87.9 | 75.2 | .543 |
| 2 | Cardinals | 84.6 | 77.4 | .522 |
| 3 | Brewers | 78.0 | 84.0 | .482 |
| 4 | Reds | 75.1 | 86.9 | .464 |
| 5 | Pirates | 72.5 | 89.5 | .447 |
| 6 | Astros | 71.9 | 90.1 | .444 |
| NL East | ||||
| 1 | Braves | 90.3 | 71.7 | .557 |
| 2 | Phillies | 90.1 | 71.9 | .556 |
| 3 | Marlins | 81.2 | 80.8 | .501 |
| 4 | Mets | 75.7 | 86.3 | .467 |
| 5 | Nationals | 74.9 | 87.1 | .462 |
| AL West | ||||
| 1 | Mariners | 82.4 | 79.6 | .509 |
| 2 | Angels | 82.2 | 79.8 | .507 |
| 3 | A's | 81.5 | 80.5 | .503 |
| 4 | Rangers | 80.9 | 81.1 | .499 |
| AL Central | ||||
| 1 | Twins | 86.5 | 75.5 | .534 |
| 2 | White Sox | 82.1 | 79.9 | .507 |
| 3 | Tigers | 77.9 | 84.1 | .481 |
| 4 | Royals | 72.2 | 89.8 | .446 |
| 5 | Indians | 69.9 | 92.1 | .431 |
| AL East | ||||
| 1 | Yankees | 102.0 | 60.0 | .630 |
| 2 | Red Sox | 91.0 | 71.0 | .561 |
| 3 | Rays | 82.2 | 79.8 | .508 |
| 4 | Blue Jays | 74.7 | 87.3 | .461 |
| 5 | Orioles | 71.5 | 90.5 | .441 |
Definitely seems reasonable. Thanks for doing this, I'll be keeping an eye on it.
ReplyDeleteGreat stuff
ReplyDeleteI will be very pleased if the Dodgers beat the Rockies by seven games. Should I dock the Dodgers a couple wins for Manny's 30 games not starting?
ReplyDeleteI see the sim has the AL West as very competitive and very mediocre.
Dave, I would dock the Dodgers around 0.025 wins per start missed by Manny. But other teams will be missing starters at times too, so attacking the problem like this gets more complicated. Good question though.
ReplyDeletevr, Xei
What stats are you using for this? Projected stats? Which system?
ReplyDeleteWhat simulation? Diamond mind?
Stats/Projections are coming from my own proprietary system (Xizzles). Yeah, I know that sucks as far as open sourcing everything for peer review. All I can say is that it is probably similar to many of the other popular ones. It has a logistic weighting system with aging curves and a regression technique. Another good question though.
ReplyDeleteI suppose I could run with Chone, Zips, Marcel etc..., but I just don't have the time to do so.
vr, Xei
So 0.025 * 30 = 0.75 wins docked from the Dodgers for the 30 off days I estimate Manny will need. Not too bad really, knocks the Dodger wins down to about 93 even.
ReplyDeleteI picked on Manny because of the known amount of non-starts he is due to have in order to have sufficient rest at his advanced age. I don't think there is a similar player in the NL West.
If the Yankees are eleven games better than the Red Sox, I'll eat my hat.
ReplyDeleteXei, do you publish your player projections anywhere?
ReplyDeletemb21, I do not publish them. If there is one or two particular players you'd like to see please email me (xeifrank@yahoo.com). Usually all I run my simulator for is individual games, so all I am really concerned about are rate stats. ie - how many HR per PA. For simulating "a particular" game, that is all you need to know (rate stats). More than just the HR portion obviously. :)
ReplyDeletevr, Xei
El Lay Dave, yes that is how I would calculate the Manny penalty, without actually taking him out of 30 or so randomly picked games. It's an estimate, but should be pretty accurate. The margin of error for all teams should be around 0.8 wins.
ReplyDeleteOf course, it is all based off of the input projections I used.
vr, Xei
AWESOME! Go Mariners!!!
ReplyDeletereally good stats. Thanks for including and compiling these.
ReplyDeleteSoccer Drills
Would enjoy seeing more of these.