This offseason I will be keeping track of the Dodgers team WAR tally. That is, how many wins is the current Dodger roster expected to have based on summing the WAR (Wins Above Replacement) of each individual player. As free agent signings and possible trades occur, I will update this table. Where the Dodgers have a hole in their roster, I have added a replacement level player or something close to it. The primary source of player projections I am using is
ZiPS, and where ZiPs is an extreme outlier, I then use either
Marcel or
Chone.
Analysis: The Dodgers signed Manny Ramirez. I have him worth 4.16 WAR using Chone projections, and docking him 5 runs for defense.
Last Updated: 04-MAR-2009
| Hitters
|
| Player
| Position
| Playing Time
| wOBA
| Offensive WAR
| Defensive WAR
| Baserunning WAR
| Position Adjustment
| Total WAR
|
| R.Martin
| C
| 80%
| .355
| 1.15
| 0.0
| 0.01
| 3.0
| 3.40
|
| B.Ausmus
| C
| 20%
| .288
| -2.96
| -0.4
| 0.0
| 3.0
| -0.07
|
| J.Loney
| 1B
| 85%
| .352
| 0.73
| -0.5
| 0.0
| 1.0
| 1.05
|
| Repl 1B
| 1B
| 15%
| .319
| -1.00
| 0.0
| 0.0
| 1.0
| 0.00
|
| O.Hudson
| 2B
| 75%
| .336
| -0.18
| 0.5
| 0.0
| 2.0
| 1.74
|
| M.Loretta
| 2B
| 25%
| .319
| -1.18
| -0.10
| 0.0
| 2.0
| 0.18
|
| C.Blake
| 3B
| 75%
| .338
| 0.17
| -0.4
| 0.0
| 2.3
| 0.79
|
| B.Dewitt
| 3B
| 25%
| .314
| -1.47
| 0.0
| 0.0
| 2.0
| 0.53
|
| R.Furcal
| SS
| 75%
| .338
| 0.17
| 0.25
| 0.25
| 2.5
| 2.38
|
| C.Hu
| SS
| 25%
| .287
| -2.81
| 0.4
| 0.1
| 2.5
| 0.05
|
| M.Ramirez
| LF
| 85%
| .402
| 3.90
| -0.5
| 0.0
| 1.5
| 4.16
|
| M.Kemp
| CF
| 85%
| .350
| 0.90
| -0.5
| 0.5
| 2.5
| 2.89
|
| A.Ethier
| RF
| 80%
| .362
| 1.59
| 0.1
| 0.0
| 1.5
| 2.55
|
| J.Repko
| CF
| 25%
| .317
| -1.27
| 0.25
| 0.0
| 2.5
| 0.36
|
| J.Pierre
| LF/CF
| 25%
| .299
| -2.07
| 0.1
| 0.75
| 1.5
| 0.07
|
| Hitting Total
| 19.89
|
| Pitchers
|
| Name
| Pos
| IP
| HR
| BB
| SO
| FIP ERA
| Leverage
| WAR
|
| C.Billingsley
| SP
| 204
| 14
| 73
| 195
| 3.25
| 0.0
| 4.06
|
| H.Kuroda
| SP
| 171
| 14
| 42
| 103
| 3.80
| 0.0
| 2.42
|
| C.Kershaw
| SP
| 175
| 17
| 76
| 135
| 4.22
| 0.0
| 1.69
|
| R.Wolf
| SP
| 170
| 19
| 68
| 140
| 4.21
| 0.0
| 1.67
|
| J.McDonald
| SP
| 70
| 11
| 29
| 48
| 5.11
| 0.0
| 0.02
|
| E.Stults
| SP
| 60
| 9
| 22
| 39
| 4.95
| 0.0
| 0.12
|
| J.Schmidt
| SP
| 40
| 5
| 16
| 33
| 4.38
| 0.0
| 0.32
|
| R.Troncoso
| SP
| 50
| 6
| 19
| 38
| 4.38
| 0.0
| 0.40
|
| J.Broxton
| RP
| 65
| 4
| 23
| 81
| 2.57
| 1.0
| 2.51
|
| H.Guo
| RP
| 70
| 5
| 27
| 82
| 2.94
| 0.6
| 1.90
|
| C.Wade
| RP
| 90
| 15
| 23
| 59
| 4.82
| 0.3
| 0.14
|
| R.Troncoso
| RP
| 65
| 6
| 26
| 55
| 3.91
| 0.1
| 0.60
|
| G.Mota
| RP
| 50
| 7
| 21
| 42
| 4.60
| 0.0
| 0.01
|
| C.Vargas
| RP
| 50
| 6
| 20
| 39
| 4.40
| 0.0
| 0.12
|
| J.McDonald
| RP
| 40
| 5
| 17
| 31
| 4.55
| 0.0
| 0.03
|
| E.Stults
| RP
| 30
| 4
| 11
| 22
| 4.57
| 0.0
| 0.02
|
| J.Schmidt
| RP
| 30
| 3
| 13
| 28
| 3.93
| 0.0
| 0.22
|
| S.Elbert
| RP
| 15
| 3
| 7
| 10
| 5.87
| 0.0
| -0.19
|
| Bullpen
| 5.33
|
| Starters
| 10.70
|
| All Pitchers
| 16.03
|
| Team Totals
|
| Type
| WAR
|
| Hitters
| 19.89
|
| Rotation
| 10.70
|
| Bullpen
| 5.33
|
| Team Total
| 85.92
|
This is a great idea..However, I noticed that your WAR results for the starters are much lower than my calculations. Are you adding an adjustment or a different replacement level than .390?
ReplyDeleteRobin, I am calculating pitcher WAR using FIP-ERA not winning percentage. Perhaps that's where our differences lie? Feel free to post your WAR results for the Dodger starters. Thanks for the reply.
ReplyDeletevr, Xei
Well, based off the formula I'm using (from Tango Tiger's "How To Calculate WAR" - using NL starter replacement level of .390, league average ERA of 4.41 based off 2008 NL totals for starters), my WAR results are much higher. For instance, Billingsley comes in at 5.55 WAR and Kuroda at 3.37 WAR. I'm calculating based off the IP and FIP you have listed.
ReplyDeleteI'm mostly curious because I'm trying to get down the process and formula. Trying to figure out if something is off in my process. If you could give any input, I'd appreciate it. Thanks!
Robin, in Billingsley's case for example, I take his FIP ERA which I have listed as 3.25. FIP Expected Runs becomes IP*FIP = 204*3.25= 73.76. Replacement Level ERA (park adjusted) is 5.14, which makes Replacement Level Expected Runs for someone with 204 IPs, 204*5.14= 116.4. Which puts Billingsley at 116.4 minus 73.76 equals 42.65 Runs Above Replacement Level. Divide this number by 10.5 to convert to WAR and you get 4.06
ReplyDeleteThere are other methods to calculate pitcher WAR, but 5.5 is a little too high for Billingsley imo.
vr, Xei
I don't think that's right. A replacement level starter would only pitch 150 innings. The other 55 innings or so would be attributed to a relief pitcher. A replacement level starter has an ERA of 5.5 while a RP is 4.5. That would make Billingsley WAR less than you have. That's atleast my understand of how to calculate SPs WAR.
ReplyDeleteDave, I have the non-park adjusted FIP ERA at right around 5.5 like you mentioned, but I like to park adjust my stats and in my calculations that brought it down to 5.14 for Dodger pitchers. To tell you the truth, I am not sure about the second half of your paragraph. I see your logic, but there should be some offsetting factors for not wearing down the bullpen. Thanks for the enlightened comment(s).
ReplyDeletevr, Xei
How can a catcher's defensive WAR be zero?
ReplyDeleteWebmeister,
ReplyDeleteBare with me cause I'm new to this fascinating WAR stuff. I read Tango's explanations of it and am confused about your defensive adjustments. My understanding was that wins/runs are deducted for positions like 1B, LF, RF. How did you figure these adjustments?
Nevermind I'm an idiot - didn't account for adding 2.25 wins to adjust to replacement level. Disregard last communication, ha.
ReplyDeleteHey Xei, I love your work, but I think there is something wrong with your math. I posted this at Beyond the Boxscore so I'll just paste what I wrote there:
ReplyDeleteInconsistencies. Okay, not sure if I’m totally off here. I was comparing the Dodgers WAR and Astros WAR, mostly because I’m hoping the Dodgers WAR isn’t really 79. :-)
But it seems the Astros calculations and the Dodger ones aren’t consistent. For example, Clayton Kershaw is projected for 165 IP with a 4.17 ERA for 1.69 WAR. Meanwhile Wandy Rodriguez projects to 150 IP with a 4.16 ERA for 2.4 WAR. Either I’m missing something or one of these projections is off, because Kershaw should be more valuable than Wandy.
And for the lineup:
Again the Dodgers projection's are off. Compared to Xeifrank’s Dodger projections at least, not sure if you guys used different projections. But he has the Dodgers position players worth 14.74 wins, whereas here they are worth 17.18 wins.
Not sure if your doing the math wrong or not, I just did this because hopefully we are above 79 wins.
Brendan, I am park adjusting my stats, not sure what others are doing. Also, FIP-ERA should be used, not ERA. Not sure if that was just a typo on your part. Also, for the most part I am using ZIPS projections unless their projections are an outlier to the other projection systems.
ReplyDeletevr, Xei
Right, but isn't Dodger Stadium a neutral park? Comparing your projections to others on Beyond the Boxscore it seems like Dodger pitchers are consistently valued lower.
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