Please keep in mind that I am no Bill James, so this chart was done to the best of my ability. I do have wiggle room for some of the defense and base running adjustments, but they won't change the values significantly. All of these numbers are based off of 2008 ZIPS Projections and my estimates for playing time, therefore it is not a perfect science.
| WAR - Los Angeles Dodgers | ||||||
| Hitters | ||||||
| Player | Playing Time | Park Adj wOBA | Pre-WAR | Pos/Def/BR | WAR | WAR$ |
| R.Martin | 0.80 | .3537 | .9127 | 3.0/0.0/0.1 | 3.19 | $14.44M |
| G.Bennett | 0.25 | .2693 | -.9962 | 3.0/0.0/-0.1 | 0.48 | $2.49M |
| J.Loney | 0.85 | .3726 | 2.006 | 1.0/0.0/0.1 | 2.55 | $11.64M |
| M.Sweeney | 0.1 | .3238 | -.8222 | 1.0/-0.5/-0.1 | -0.04 | $0.21M |
| J.Kent | 0.70 | .3500 | .6964 | 2.0/-0.5/-0.1 | 1.47 | $6.86M |
| T.Abreu | 0.35 | .2988 | -2.274 | 2.0/0.0/0.1 | -0.06 | $0.13M |
| A.LaRoche | 0.60 | .3416 | .2082 | 2.0/0.0/0.0 | 1.32 | $6.23M |
| N.Garciappara | 0.50 | .3190 | -.1.099 | 2/-0.5/0.0 | 0.20 | $1.28M |
| R.Furcal | 0.85 | .3311 | -.3989 | 2.5/0.0/0.1 | 1.87 | $8.63M |
| A.Ethier | 0.65 | .3568 | 1.087 | 1.5/0.5/0.1 | 2.07 | $9.52M |
| J.Pierre | 0.60 | .3084 | -1.719 | 1.5/0.0/1.0 | 0.47 | $2.47M |
| D.Young | 0.25 | .3065 | -1.829 | 1.5/-0.5/0.0 | -0.21 | $-0.51M |
| A.Jones | 0.75 | .3592 | 1.2306 | 2.5/1.0/0.0 | 3.55 | $16.01M |
| M.Kemp | 0.75 | .3611 | 1.338 | 1.5/0.5/0.1 | 2.58 | $11.75M |
| Total | 19.46 | |||||
| Pitchers | ||||||
| Player | IP | FIP ERA | PA Lg Ave ERA | RAR | WAR | WAR$ |
| B.Penny | 200 | 3.375 | 5.135 | 31.12 | 2.96 | $13.44M |
| D.Lowe | 210 | 4.105 | 5.135 | 24.05 | 2.29 | $10.48M |
| C.Billingsley | 180 | 4.161 | 5.135 | 19.48 | 1.86 | $8.56 |
| H.Kuroda | 180 | 4.067 | 5.135 | 21.37 | 2.04 | $9.36M |
| E.Loaiza | 127 | 4.641 | 5.135 | 6.98 | 0.66 | $3.32M |
| J.Schmidt | 82 | 3.810 | 5.135 | 12.08 | 1.15 | $5.46M |
| H.Guo | 78 | 3.918 | 5.135 | 10.55 | 1.00 | $4.82M |
| T.Saito | 66 | 2.579 | 5.135 | 18.75 | 1.79 | $8.26M |
| J.Broxton | 96 | 2.794 | 5.135 | 24.98 | 2.38 | $10.87M |
| J.Biemel | 73 | 3.967 | 5.135 | 9.48 | 0.90 | $4.37M |
| S.Proctor | 93 | 4.888 | 5.135 | 2.55 | 0.24 | $1.47M |
| R.Seanez | 65 | 4.031 | 5.135 | 7.98 | 0.76 | $3.74M |
| Bullpen | 471 | 7.07451 | ||||
| Rotation | 979 | 10.95968 | ||||
| Total | 1450 | 18.03419 | ||||
Now let's take a look at how that stacks up with the rest of the NL West teams. Keep in mind that a team comprised only of replacement level players would win about 50 games, therefore to get the total number of wins we need to use the following simple formula (Team WAR = 50 + Offense WAR + Pitching WAR).
| NL West - WAR | |||||
| Team | Hitting WAR | Rotation WAR | Bullpen WAR | Total WAR | Simulator |
| DBacks | 18.44 | 5.86 | 13.72 | 88.03 | 82.36 |
| Dodgers | 19.46 | 7.07 | 10.96 | 87.50 | 85.88 |
| Rockies | 18.67 | 4.46 | 6.81 | 79.95 | 81.68 |
| Padres | 18.03 | 3.76 | 8.06 | 79.84 | 82.76 |
| Giants | 8.26 | 3.82 | 9.41 | 71.49 | 75.16 |
Surely it should be "WOR", not "WAR"? And what do all the other acronyms stand for? There seem to be about a dozen of them.
ReplyDeleteDid you put up the table (or text)somewhat prematurely? Your text refers to having got "WAR" numbers for all NL West players, but the table lists Dodgers and has figures only for Russell Martin. Presumably others will be forthcoming.
Ooh, all the TBDs have suddenly disappeared, superseding my last comment. And Bennett is now suddenly up, so the others must be on their way too.
ReplyDeletehaha, I am in the middle of entering the data. The rest of the data is coming. Sorry. :)
ReplyDeletevr, Xei
It's Wins Above Replacement, berkowit.
ReplyDeleteAs for the other numbers... wOBA is a rate stat version of linear weights. Pre-WAR looks like Wins Above Average on offense. The next column is adjustments to average: a bonus to players based on their position, a bonus based on their defensive value... I presume BR is baserunning. And WAR$ is WAR converted to salary.
What I don't get is the Age adjustment - shouldn't that already be accounted for in the forecast wOBA?
Colin is correct. As far as the aging column goes you make a good point. Perhaps that should only be used for evaluating a long term contract. Thoughts?
ReplyDeletevr, Xei
Ok, I took out the aging adjustments. They should only be applied when looking at a long term deal. The WAR values match up with the simulator results pretty well, except for the Diamondbacks. Those pesky Diamondbacks are always over-performing. :)
ReplyDeletevr, Xei
Very nice work. I have a couple of questions:
ReplyDeleteHow did you park adjust wOBA?
And how do you calculate FIP-ERA?
Thanks