| Simulations for Thursday, June 28th. Current prediction record is 124-88. | ||||
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Favored Team | Expected Chance of Winning | Outcome |
| Dodgers vs DBacks | R.Wolf vs R.Johnson | DBacks | 56.35 | Dodgers |
| Rockies vs Astros | A.Cook vs R.Oswalt | Rockies | 50.95 | Astros |
Webmeister, have you ever checked the vegas odds to see how your sim would stack up against a sportsbook?
ReplyDeleteMy book has COL at +153, which means (according to them) they have a 39.5% chance to win. Obviously, they overestimate Oswalt.
The book has ARI at -137 which = 57.8% chance to win. Slightly overvaluing the Dbacks but not by much.
I'd probably lay off ARI, but bet heavily on COL. Just thought you might find this interesting. I check out the blog everyday, keep up the good work.
Thanks for the post kegtron. I've taken a look at the vegas lines once in a while to see how the odds stacked up against the simulators win probability. Perhaps some day I will start posting the vegas line along with the simulator data. It's a good idea. I think putting a little money on Colorado as "underdogs" would be a decent little bet.
ReplyDeletevr, Xeifrank
A quick line to say I drop in every so often to check you simulations. Thanks for keeping it up!
ReplyDelete