Bullpen Crashes And Burns

September 5th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Giants	Dodgers	J.Sanchez vs H.Kuroda	Dodgers	57.08%	57.75%	SF 3-0
Braves	Marlins	M.Minor vs A.Saniba	Braves	52.27%	49.61%	FLA 7-6
Nationals	Pirates	J.Marquis vs C.Morton	Nationals	54.75%	50.09%	WAS 8-1
Brewers	Phillies	R.Wolf vs K.Kendrick	Phillies	59.51%	57.02%	MIL 6-2
Reds	Cardinals	H.Bailey vs C.Carpenter	Cardinals	63.90%	58.64%	STL 4-2
Mets	Cubs	J.Niese vs R.Dempster	Cubs	58.51%	61.52%	NYN 18-5
Rockies	Padres	J.de la Rosa vs C.Richard	Padres	56.33%	56.94%	COL 4-2
Astros	DBacks	J.Happ vs R.Lopez	DBacks	50.50%	53.50%	HOU 3-2

Current ROI: 1.77%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	9/5	9/4	9/3	9/2	9/1	8/31	8/30	8/29	8/28	8/27	8/26
1	Padres	60.02%	69.56%	71.42%	71.16%	76.77%	81.09%	82.40%	86.69%	86.54%	86.46%	89.25%
2	Giants	35.29%	25.97%	26.18%	25.73%	19.28%	14.24%	14.91%	11.05%	11.68%	12.28%	9.98%
3	Rockies	3.74%	2.90%	1.51%	2.18%	2.83%	3.12%	1.84%	1.16%	0.64%	0.70%	0.47%
4	Dodgers	0.95%	1.57%	0.90%	0.92%	1.13%	1.56%	0.85%	1.09%	1.14%	0.57%	0.30%

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Furcal's Back

September 4th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Giants	Dodgers	M.Cain vs T.Lilly	Dodgers	55.56%	50.96%	SF 5-4

Current ROI: 1.71%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	9/4	9/3	9/2	9/1	8/31	8/30	8/29	8/28	8/27	8/26	8/25
1	Padres	69.56%	71.42%	71.16%	76.77%	81.09%	82.40%	86.69%	86.54%	86.46%	89.25%	84.63%
2	Giants	25.97%	26.18%	25.73%	19.28%	14.24%	14.91%	11.05%	11.68%	12.28%	9.98%	14.74%
3	Rockies	2.90%	1.51%	2.18%	2.83%	3.12%	1.84%	1.16%	0.64%	0.70%	0.47%	0.40%
4	Dodgers	1.57%	0.90%	0.92%	1.13%	1.56%	0.85%	1.09%	1.14%	0.57%	0.30%	0.23%

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Spoilers

September 3rd, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Giants	Dodgers	B.Zito vs C.Billingsley	Dodgers	56.90%	59.61%	LAN 4-2
Mets	Cubs	R.Dickey vs R.Wells	Cubs	50.74%	56.86%	CHN 7-6
Nationals	Pirates	L.Hernandez vs Z.Duke	Nationals	51.22%	54.72%	PIT 8-5
Brewers	Phillies	C.Capuano vs C.Hamels	Phillies	71.10%	65.25%	PHI 1-0
Braves	Marlins	K.Kawakami vs A.Miller	Braves	52.61%	53.79%	FLA 6-1
Reds	Cardinals	B.Arroyo vs J.Garcia	Cardinals	57.63%	65.79%	STL 3-2
Astros	DBacks	B.Myers vs D.Hudson	DBacks	57.81%	58.37%	ARI 4-3
Rockies	Padres	A.Cook vs C.Luebke	Padres	55.95%	54.89%	COL 4-3

Current ROI: 2.02%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	9/3	9/2	9/1	8/31	8/30	8/29	8/28	8/27	8/26	8/25	8/24
1	Padres	71.42%	71.16%	76.77%	81.09%	82.40%	86.69%	86.54%	86.46%	89.25%	84.63%	84.30%
2	Giants	26.18%	25.73%	19.28%	14.24%	14.91%	11.05%	11.68%	12.28%	9.98%	14.74%	15.05%
3	Rockies	1.51%	2.18%	2.83%	3.12%	1.84%	1.16%	0.64%	0.70%	0.47%	0.40%	0.39%
4	Dodgers	0.90%	0.92%	1.13%	1.56%	0.85%	1.09%	1.14%	0.57%	0.30%	0.23%	0.26%

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Better Luck Next Year

September 2nd, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Phillies	Rockies	J.Blanton vs J.Chacin	Rockies	56.14%	58.08%	PHI 12-11
Mets	Braves	J.Santana vs T.Hudson	Braves	60.78%	58.54%	NYN 4-2
A's	Yankees	D.Braden vs C.Sabathia	Yankees	65.87%	64.88%	NYA 5-0
Red Sox	Orioles	D.Matsuzaka vs B.Bergesen	Red Sox	56.90%	57.08%	BOS 6-4
Tigers	Twins	J.Verlander vs S.Baker	Twins	53.49%	55.64%	DET 10-9
Indians	Mariners	J.Tomlin vs D.Fister	Mariners	57.45%	63.14%	CLE 6-3

Current ROI: 2.31%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	9/2	9/1	8/31	8/30	8/29	8/28	8/27	8/26	8/25	8/24	8/23
1	Padres	71.16%	76.77%	81.09%	82.40%	86.69%	86.54%	86.46%	89.25%	84.63%	84.30%	86.29%
2	Giants	25.73%	19.28%	14.24%	14.91%	11.05%	11.68%	12.28%	9.98%	14.74%	15.05%	13.12%
3	Rockies	2.18%	2.83%	3.12%	1.84%	1.16%	0.64%	0.70%	0.47%	0.40%	0.39%	0.35%
4	Dodgers	0.92%	1.13%	1.56%	0.85%	1.09%	1.14%	0.57%	0.30%	0.23%	0.26%	0.24%

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NL West Title Well Within Reach... Just Not For Dodgers

September 1st, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Phillies	Dodgers	R.Oswalt vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	51.22%	52.94%	PHI 5-1

Current ROI: 2.79%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	9/1	8/31	8/30	8/29	8/28	8/27	8/26	8/25	8/24	8/23	8/22
1	Padres	76.77%	81.09%	82.40%	86.69%	86.54%	86.46%	89.25%	84.63%	84.30%	86.29%	81.60%
2	Giants	19.28%	14.24%	14.91%	11.05%	11.68%	12.28%	9.98%	14.74%	15.05%	13.12%	17.63%
3	Rockies	2.83%	3.12%	1.84%	1.16%	0.64%	0.70%	0.47%	0.40%	0.39%	0.35%	0.27%
4	Dodgers	1.13%	1.56%	0.85%	1.09%	1.14%	0.57%	0.30%	0.23%	0.26%	0.24%	0.50%

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Masterful Kuroda Quells Phillies Bats

August 31st, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Phillies	Dodgers	K.Kendrick vs C.Monasterios	Dodgers	51.69%	47.03%	PHI 8-4

Current ROI: 2.29%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	8/31	8/30	8/29	8/28	8/27	8/26	8/25	8/24	8/23	8/22	8/21
1	Padres	81.09%	82.40%	86.69%	86.54%	86.46%	89.25%	84.63%	84.30%	86.29%	81.60%	81.62%
2	Giants	14.24%	14.91%	11.05%	11.68%	12.28%	9.98%	14.74%	15.05%	13.12%	17.63%	17.77%
3	Rockies	3.12%	1.84%	1.16%	0.64%	0.70%	0.47%	0.40%	0.39%	0.35%	0.27%	0.32%
4	Dodgers	1.56%	0.85%	1.09%	1.14%	0.57%	0.30%	0.23%	0.26%	0.24%	0.50%	0.30%

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Manny Leaves, Dodgers Get A Halladay

August 30th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Phillies	Dodgers	R.Halladay vs H.Kuroda	Phillies	57.63%	53.39%	LAN 3-0
Pirates	Cubs	P.Maholm vs C.Zambrano	Cubs	61.83%	68.06%	CHN 14-2
Padres	DBacks	W.LeBlanc vs J.Saunders	Padres	56.52%	48.72%	ARI 7-2
Blue Jays	Rays	B.Cecil vs W.Davis	Rays	58.16%	47.90%	TB 6-2

Current ROI: 2.43%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	8/30	8/29	8/28	8/27	8/26	8/25	8/24	8/23	8/22	8/21	8/20
1	Padres	82.40%	86.69%	86.54%	86.46%	89.25%	84.63%	84.30%	86.29%	81.60%	81.62%	85.81%
2	Giants	14.91%	11.05%	11.68%	12.28%	9.98%	14.74%	15.05%	13.12%	17.63%	17.77%	13.26%
3	Rockies	1.84%	1.16%	0.64%	0.70%	0.47%	0.40%	0.39%	0.35%	0.27%	0.32%	0.46%
4	Dodgers	0.85%	1.09%	1.14%	0.57%	0.30%	0.23%	0.26%	0.24%	0.50%	0.30%	0.46%

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Dodgers Approaching Their 2010 Waterloo

August 29th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Rockies	T.Lilly vs J.Hammel	Rockies	53.05%	62.42%	COL 10-5
Astros	Mets	B.Norris vs R.Dickey	Mets	63.24%	57.45%	NYN 5-1
Cardinals	Nationals	A.Wainwright vs J.Lannan	Cardinals	65.28%	56.41%	WAS 4-2
Red Sox	Rays	J.Lackey vs J.Shields	Rays	58.68%	49.89%	TB 5-3
Yankees	White Sox	I.Nova vs G.Floyd	White Sox	55.16%	60.51%	NYA 2-1

Current ROI: 2.30%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	8/29	8/28	8/27	8/26	8/25	8/24	8/23	8/22	8/21	8/20	8/19
1	Padres	86.69%	86.54%	86.46%	89.25%	84.63%	84.30%	86.29%	81.60%	81.62%	85.81%	85.11%
2	Giants	11.05%	11.68%	12.28%	9.98%	14.74%	15.05%	13.12%	17.63%	17.77%	13.26%	13.59%
3	Rockies	1.16%	0.64%	0.70%	0.47%	0.40%	0.39%	0.35%	0.27%	0.32%	0.46%	0.85%
4	Dodgers	1.09%	1.14%	0.57%	0.30%	0.23%	0.26%	0.24%	0.50%	0.30%	0.46%	0.45%

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Saturday Night Fever!

August 28th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Rockies	C.Billingsley vs J.Chacin	Rockies	54.95%	57.40%	COL 5-3
Cardinals	Nationsls	K.Lohse vs L.Hernandez	Cardinals	50.98%	40.81%	WAS 14-5
Cubs	Reds	R.Wells vs B.Arroyo	Reds	62.29%	50.52%	CHN 3-2
Marlins	Braves	R.Nolasco vs T.Hudson	Braves	63.50%	56.50%	ATL 12-3
A's	Rangers	D.Braden vs R.Harden	Rangers	58.16%	47.20%	OAK 5-0
Twins	Mariners	N.Blackburn vs D.Fister	Twins	51.22%	44.04%	MIN 1-0

Current ROI: 1.69%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	8/28	8/27	8/26	8/25	8/24	8/23	8/22	8/21	8/20	8/19	8/18
1	Padres	86.54%	86.46%	89.25%	84.63%	84.30%	86.29%	81.60%	81.62%	85.81%	85.11%	79.54%
2	Giants	11.68%	12.28%	9.98%	14.74%	15.05%	13.12%	17.63%	17.77%	13.26%	13.59%	18.89%
3	Dodgers	1.14%	0.57%	0.30%	0.23%	0.26%	0.24%	0.50%	0.30%	0.46%	0.45%	0.86%
4	Rockies	0.64%	0.70%	0.47%	0.40%	0.39%	0.35%	0.27%	0.32%	0.46%	0.85%	0.72%

Note: Lineups recalibrated for 8/18 results and on

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Stayin' Alive

August 27th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Rockies	C.Kershaw vs U.Jimenez	Rockies	59.51%	55.69%	LAN 6-2

Current ROI: 2.40%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	8/27	8/26	8/25	8/24	8/23	8/22	8/21	8/20	8/19	8/18	8/17
1	Padres	86.46%	89.25%	84.63%	84.30%	86.29%	81.60%	81.62%	85.81%	85.11%	79.54%	72.20%
2	Giants	12.28%	9.98%	14.74%	15.05%	13.12%	17.63%	17.77%	13.26%	13.59%	18.89%	24.39%
3	Rockies	0.70%	0.47%	0.40%	0.39%	0.35%	0.27%	0.32%	0.46%	0.85%	0.72%	1.37%
4	Dodgers	0.57%	0.30%	0.23%	0.26%	0.24%	0.50%	0.30%	0.46%	0.45%	0.86%	2.04%

Note: Lineups recalibrated for 8/18 results and on

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Three Headed Save

August 26th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Brewers	C.Monasterios vs Y.Gallardo	Brewers	60.63%	68.82%	LAN 7-1

Current ROI: 2.11%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	8/26	8/25	8/24	8/23	8/22	8/21	8/20	8/19	8/18	8/17	8/16
1	Padres	89.25%	84.63%	84.30%	86.29%	81.60%	81.62%	85.81%	85.11%	79.54%	72.20%	67.49%
2	Giants	9.98%	14.74%	15.05%	13.12%	17.63%	17.77%	13.26%	13.59%	18.89%	24.39%	27.55%
3	Rockies	0.47%	0.40%	0.39%	0.35%	0.27%	0.32%	0.46%	0.85%	0.72%	1.37%	1.69%
4	Dodgers	0.30%	0.23%	0.26%	0.24%	0.50%	0.30%	0.46%	0.45%	0.86%	2.04%	3.27%

Note: Lineups recalibrated for 8/18 results and on

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Little By Lilly, Dodgers Discover A New Ace

August 25th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Brewers	H.Kuroda vs R.Wolf	Brewers	52.61%	47.45%	LAN 5-4

Current ROI: 1.55%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	8/25	8/24	8/23	8/22	8/21	8/20	8/19	8/18	8/17	8/16	8/15
1	Padres	84.63%	84.30%	86.29%	81.60%	81.62%	85.81%	85.11%	79.54%	72.20%	67.49%	58.05%
2	Giants	14.74%	15.05%	13.12%	17.63%	17.77%	13.26%	13.59%	18.89%	24.39%	27.55%	36.49%
3	Rockies	0.40%	0.39%	0.35%	0.27%	0.32%	0.46%	0.85%	0.72%	1.37%	1.69%	1.32%
4	Dodgers	0.23%	0.26%	0.24%	0.50%	0.30%	0.46%	0.45%	0.86%	2.04%	3.27%	4.13%

Note: Lineups recalibrated for 8/18 results and on

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Waive Good-Bye To Manny?

August 24th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Dodgers	Brewers	T.Lilly vs D.Bush	Dodgers	56.14%	49.95%	LAN 5-3

Current ROI: 1.37%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	8/24	8/23	8/22	8/21	8/20	8/19	8/18	8/17	8/16	8/15	8/14
1	Padres	84.30%	86.29%	81.60%	81.62%	85.81%	85.11%	79.54%	72.20%	67.49%	58.05%	65.64%
2	Giants	15.05%	13.12%	17.63%	17.77%	13.26%	13.59%	18.89%	24.39%	27.55%	36.49%	29.45%
3	Rockies	0.39%	0.35%	0.27%	0.32%	0.46%	0.85%	0.72%	1.37%	1.69%	1.32%	1.77%
4	Dodgers	0.26%	0.24%	0.50%	0.30%	0.46%	0.45%	0.86%	2.04%	3.27%	4.13%	3.14%

Note: Lineups recalibrated for 8/18 results and on

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Off Day, Off Season

August 23rd, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Cubs	Nationals	C.Coleman vs L.Hernandez	Nationals	63.24%	65.21%	CHN 10
Cardinals	Pirates	K.Lohse vs R.Ohlendorf	Cardinals	54.55%	50.82%	STL 12
Astros	Phillies	B.Myers vs J.Blanton	Phillies	62.12%	62.21%	HOU 5
Braves	Rockies	T.Hudson vs J.Hammel	Braves	53.92%	40.06%	COL 9
Reds	Giants	E.Volquez vs M.Cain	Giants	56.71%	64.80%	SF 13

Current ROI: 1.33%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	8/23	8/22	8/21	8/20	8/19	8/18	8/17	8/16	8/15	8/14	8/13
1	Padres	86.29%	81.60%	81.62%	85.81%	85.11%	79.54%	72.20%	67.49%	58.05%	65.64%	57.10%
2	Giants	13.12%	17.63%	17.77%	13.26%	13.59%	18.89%	24.39%	27.55%	36.49%	29.45%	37.17%
3	Rockies	0.35%	0.27%	0.32%	0.46%	0.85%	0.72%	1.37%	1.69%	1.32%	1.77%	1.48%
4	Dodgers	0.24%	0.50%	0.30%	0.46%	0.45%	0.86%	2.04%	3.27%	4.13%	3.14%	4.25%

Note: Lineups recalibrated for 8/18 results and on

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Dodgers Hit Manny Homeruns

August 22nd, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Reds	Dodgers	B.Arroyo vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	57.45%	64.89%	CIN 5-2

Current ROI: 2.19%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	8/22	8/21	8/20	8/19	8/18	8/17	8/16	8/15	8/14	8/13	8/12
1	Padres	81.60%	81.62%	85.81%	85.11%	79.54%	72.20%	67.49%	58.05%	65.64%	57.10%	55.65%
2	Giants	17.63%	17.77%	13.26%	13.59%	18.89%	24.39%	27.55%	36.49%	29.45%	37.17%	35.50%
3	Dodgers	0.50%	0.30%	0.46%	0.45%	0.86%	2.04%	3.27%	4.13%	3.14%	4.25%	6.41%
4	Rockies	0.27%	0.32%	0.46%	0.85%	0.72%	1.37%	1.69%	1.32%	1.77%	1.48%	2.43%

Note: Lineups recalibrated for 8/18 results and on

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Homer Does Dodgers In

August 21st, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Reds	Dodgers	J.Cueto vs C.Billingsley	Dodgers	54.13%	60.06%	LAN 8-5

Current ROI: 1.98%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	8/21	8/20	8/19	8/18	8/17	8/16	8/15	8/14	8/13	8/12	8/11
1	Padres	81.62%	85.81%	85.11%	79.54%	72.20%	67.49%	58.05%	65.64%	57.10%	55.65%	54.39%
2	Giants	17.77%	13.26%	13.59%	18.89%	24.39%	27.55%	36.49%	29.45%	37.17%	35.50%	33.67%
3	Rockies	0.32%	0.46%	0.85%	0.72%	1.37%	1.69%	1.32%	1.77%	1.48%	2.43%	2.16%
4	Dodgers	0.30%	0.46%	0.45%	0.86%	2.04%	3.27%	4.13%	3.14%	4.25%	6.41%	9.78%

Note: Lineups recalibrated for 8/18 results and on

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Ace Of Lilly

August 20th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Reds	Dodgers	H.Bailey vs C.Monasterios	Dodgers	53.27%	48.68%	CIN 3-1

Current ROI: 1.77%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	8/20	8/19	8/18	8/17	8/16	8/15	8/14	8/13	8/12	8/11	8/10
1	Padres	85.81%	85.11%	79.54%	72.20%	67.49%	58.05%	65.64%	57.10%	55.65%	54.39%	48.41%
2	Giants	13.26%	13.59%	18.89%	24.39%	27.55%	36.49%	29.45%	37.17%	35.50%	33.67%	41.04%
3	Rockies	0.46%	0.85%	0.72%	1.37%	1.69%	1.32%	1.77%	1.48%	2.43%	2.16%	2.83%
4	Dodgers	0.46%	0.45%	0.86%	2.04%	3.27%	4.13%	3.14%	4.25%	6.41%	9.78%	7.72%

Note: Lineups recalibrated for 8/18 results and on

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Wild Pitches Dooms Dodgers

August 19th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Rockies	Dodgers	J.de la Rosa vs T.Lilly	Dodgers	58.33%	51.41%	LAN 2-0

Current ROI: 1.38%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	8/19	8/18	8/17	8/16	8/15	8/14	8/13	8/12	8/11	8/10	8/9
1	Padres	85.11%	79.54%	72.20%	67.49%	58.05%	65.64%	57.10%	55.65%	54.39%	48.41%	51.11%
2	Giants	13.59%	18.89%	24.39%	27.55%	36.49%	29.45%	37.17%	35.50%	33.67%	41.04%	37.03%
3	Rockies	0.85%	0.72%	1.37%	1.69%	1.32%	1.77%	1.48%	2.43%	2.16%	2.83%	3.23%
4	Dodgers	0.45%	0.86%	2.04%	3.27%	4.13%	3.14%	4.25%	6.41%	9.78%	7.72%	8.63%

Note: Lineups recalibrated for 8/18 results and on

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Thank God For The Rockies

August 18th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Rockies	Dodgers	J.Hammel vs H.Kuroda	Dodgers	56.90%	53.40%	COL 3-2

Current ROI: 1.49%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	8/18	8/17	8/16	8/15	8/14	8/13	8/12	8/11	8/10	8/9	8/8
1	Padres	79.54%	72.20%	67.49%	58.05%	65.64%	57.10%	55.65%	54.39%	48.41%	51.11%	45.95%
2	Giants	18.89%	24.39%	27.55%	36.49%	29.45%	37.17%	35.50%	33.67%	41.04%	37.03%	43.97%
3	Dodgers	0.86%	2.04%	3.27%	4.13%	3.14%	4.25%	6.41%	9.78%	7.72%	8.63%	7.31%
4	Rockies	0.72%	1.37%	1.69%	1.32%	1.77%	1.48%	2.43%	2.16%	2.83%	3.23%	2.78%

Note: Lineups recalibrated for 8/18 results and on

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Bullpen Warfare

August 17th, Simulations of interest...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Actual
Rockies	Dodgers	J.Chacin vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	62.26%	59.95%	LAN 6-0
Marlins	Pirates	R.Nolasco vs Z.Duke	Marlins	57.45%	56.21%	FLA 6-0
Giants	Phillies	B.Zito vs R.Oswalt	Phillies	59.68%	59.89%	PHI 9-3
Nationals	Braves	S.Olsen vs M.Minor	Braves	63.24%	52.10%	ATL 10-2
Mets	Astros	J.Santana vs N.Figueroa	Mets	61.39%	59.86%	HOU 4-3
Padres	Cubs	J.Garland vs R.Wells	Padres	52.61%	42.81%	SD 1-0
Brewers	Cardinals	D.Bush vs J.Garcia	Cardinals	64.29%	65.18%	MIL 3-2
Reds	DBacks	B.Arroyo vs D.Hudson	Reds	52.15%	45.70%	CIN 6-2
Mariners	Orioles	L.French vs K.Millwood	Orioles	54.95%	53.35%	SEA 4-0
Tigers	Yankees	J.Verlander vs C.Sabathia	Yankees	63.24%	61.31%	NYA 6-2
Rangers	Rays	T.Hunter vs M.Garza	Rays	58.68%	58.30%	TB 10-1
Angels	Red Sox	J.Weaver vs C.Buchholz	Red Sox	56.52%	52.14%	BOS 6-0
White Sox	Twins	J.Danks vs S.Baker	Twins	53.70%	51.56%	MIN 7-6
Indians	Royals	J.Gomez vs Z.Greinke	Royals	63.24%	66.80%	KC 2-1
Blue Jays	A's	B.Morrow vs D.Braden	A's	52.15%	47.83%	TOR 6-2

Current ROI: 1.92%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West

Rank	Team	8/17	8/16	8/15	8/14	8/13	8/12	8/11	8/10	8/9	8/8	8/7
1	Padres	72.20%	67.49%	58.05%	65.64%	57.10%	55.65%	54.39%	48.41%	51.11%	45.95%	47.35%
2	Giants	24.39%	27.55%	36.49%	29.45%	37.17%	35.50%	33.67%	41.04%	37.03%	43.97%	44.19%
3	Dodgers	2.04%	3.27%	4.13%	3.14%	4.25%	6.41%	9.78%	7.72%	8.63%	7.31%	5.25%
4	Rockies	1.37%	1.69%	1.32%	1.77%	1.48%	2.43%	2.16%	2.83%	3.23%	2.78%	3.21%

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