Sunday, December 27, 2009

2010 NL East WAR


Last updated 1/14

NL East
Team Hitting Pitching Replacement Total WAR
Phillies 30.6 17.4 46.5 94.5
Braves 22.4 20.4 46.5 89.3
Mets 22.4 14.0 46.5 82.9
Marlins 18.7 13.3 46.5 78.5
Nationals 18.5 6.9 46.5 71.9

Top 10 NL East WAR Players
Rank Name Team WAR
1 Chase Utley Phillies 8.1
2 Hanley Ramirez Marlins 7.4
3 Roy Halladay Phillies 6.7
4 David Wright Mets 6.4
4 Ryan Zimmerman Nationals 6.4
6 Brian McCann Braves 5.5
7 Jose Reyes Mets 5.2
7 Josh Johnson Marlins 5.2
9 Johan Santana Mets 4.7
10 Chipper Jones Braves 4.6
10 Tommy Hanson Braves 4.5

Update Notes:
12/29: Jason Bay projections added for Mets
1/14: Adjusted C.Beltran down (injury) & updated Top 10 list.

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

2010 NL Central WAR


Not breaking down the details like I did in the NL West version, but here are the results. Last updated 1/5

NL Central
Team Hitting Pitching Replacement Total WAR
Cardinals 24.4 19.1 48.0 91.5
Cubs 20.1 13.7 48.0 81.8
Brewers 20.4 9.7 48.0 78.1
Reds 16.2 10.7 48.0 74.9
Astros 16.3 9.7 48.0 74.0
Pirates 13.9 9.6 48.0 71.5
Top 10 NL Central WAR Players
Rank Name Team WAR
1 Albert Pujols Cardinals 7.5
2 Adam Wainwright Cardinals 5.5
3 Prince Fielder Brewers 5.3
4 Ryan Braun Brewers 5.1
5 Matt Holliday Cardinals 5.0
6 Joey Votto Reds 4.9
6 Aramis Ramirez Cubs 4.9
6 Chris Carpenter Cardinals 4.9
9 Andrew McCutchen Pirates 4.6
10 Lance Berkman Astros 4.4
Changes Made
1/5: Adjusted A.Pujols from 8.0 to 7.5 WAR
1/5: Added Matt Holiday @ 5.0 WAR to Cardinals lineup

Friday, December 18, 2009

2010 NL West WAR


It's that time of the year again. The time when I pull out my WAR projections (that will be initially rolled out in a Beta version) for all five NL West teams. These are rough estimates, but I feel they are pretty accurate for the most part. The WAR projections are a combination of Fangraphs and my estimates. Some teams still will be signing free agents and or making trades, so there will likely be more than a few adjustments. Feel free to point out any roster errors, any values you feel are way off, or anything else that stands out.

Last updated 1/21

  Rockies Dodgers Giants DBacks Padres
Pos Name WAR Name WAR Name WAR Name WAR Name WAR
C C.Iannetta 2.5 R.Martin 3.0 B.Molina 1.2 M.Montero 3.3 N.Hundley 2.2
1B T.Helton 3.8 J.Loney 1.8 A.Huff 1.4 A.LaRoche 1.5 A.Gonzalez 5.2
2B C.Barmes 1.8 B.Dewitt 1.5 F.Sanchez 2.2 K.Johnson 2.5 D.Eckstein 0.6
3B I.Stewart 1.8 C.Blake 3.5 P.Sandoval 5.0 M.Reynolds 3.9 K.Kouzmanoff 3.0
SS T.Tulowitzki 6.0 R.Furcal 2.9 E.Renteria 1.0 S.Drew 2.2 E.Cabrera 1.7
LF S.Smith 2.7 M.Ramirez 3.8 M.DeRosa 2.3 C.Jackson 2.5 C.Headley 2.4
CF C.Gonzalez 4.0 M.Kemp 5.4 A.Rowand 1.7 C.Young 1.0 W.Venable 2.3
RF B.Hawpe 1.8 A.Ethier 3.3 N.Schierholtz 1.7 J.Upton 5.5 T.Gwynn 2.8
UT D.Fowler 1.8 J.Carroll 0.3 A.Torres 1.6 G.Parra 1.0 K.Blanks 1.2
BN Bench 2.0 Bench 0.6 Bench 3.2 Bench 1.1 Bench 0.8
Misc Sucktitude -4.7   -4.0   -5.5   -6.0   -7.9
 
Pitchers
SP1 U.Jimenez 5.1 C.Kershaw 4.4 T.Lincecum 7.0 D.Haren 5.5 K.Correia 2.3
SP2 J.de la Rosa 3.0 C.Billingsley 3.5 M.Cain 4.0 B.Webb 5.0 C.Richard 2.0
SP3 J.Hammel 2.9 H.Kuroda 2.5 J.Sanchez 2.4 E.Jackson 2.5 M.Latos 1.5
SP4 A.Cook 2.2 V.Padilla 2.5 B.Zito 2.0 I.Kennedy 2.0 C.Young 1.5
SP5 J.Francis 2.0 E.Stults 1.7 M.Bumgarner 1.8 B.Buckner 1.5 W.LeBlanc 1.5
SP All Others 0.1 All Others 0.7 All Others 0.1 All Others 0.3 All Others 0.7
CL H.Street 1.5 J.Broxton 2.3 B.Wilson 2.0 C.Qualls 1.0 H.Bell 1.8
SU R.Betancourt 0.7 G.Sherrill 1.0 J.Affeldt 1.0 J.Gutierrez 0.5 L.Perdomo 0.2
RP All Others 0.9 All Others 1.5 All Others 1.0 All Others 1.2 All Others 1.1
Misc Sucktitude -0.3   -1.0   -0.8   -1.0   -6.9
 
Hitters   23.4   22.1   15.5   18.8   14.3
Pitchers   18.1   19.1   20.5   18.2   5.7
Replacement   46.5   46.5   46.5   46.5   46.5
Total   88.0   87.7   82.5   83.5   66.5
Update History:
1/9: ARI: Added Kelly Johnson, Bob Howry
1/11: SF: Added A.Huff and adjusted other players
1/14: ARI: Added Adam LaRoche to team
1/19: SF: Signed C-Bengie Molina
1/21: LAN: Signed P-Vicente Padilla

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

Xizzles


I am debuting my very own projection system. Tonight the cover is off of the Xizzles, my very own baseball projection system. The algorithm for the system will not be made public but it is based off of a system that follows the following guidelines.

1) Keep it as simple as possible.
2) Automation
3) More recent performance weighted heavier.
4) Regression to the mean.
5) Age adjustments.

The system will not focus on opportunity based stats like RBIs, Runs, SB and Saves which are heavily dependent upon how the manager uses the player, where in the lineup a player bats, or the performance of the players hitting in front of him. Instead it will focus on rate stats (like HR/AB) and then borrow playing time projections (number of at bats or innings pitched) from some of the popular forecasting systems available. Since this is the initial roll out of the Xizzles, I will obviously be looking at ways to improve the system and visitor (do I have any visitors?) input is welcome. Here are the 2010 Xizzles for a few of the 2010 Los Angeles Dodgers hitters.

2010 Los Angeles Dodgers (last updated 12/17/09)
Name Pos AB Hits 1B 2B 3B HR AVE OBP SLG OPS wOBA BABIP
Matt Kemp CF 600.0 176.6 117.0 27.2 5.7 26.7 0.294 0.348 0.492 0.840 0.363 0.341
Andre Ethier RF 580.0 161.3 87.5 40.9 3.3 29.5 0.278 0.357 0.513 0.870 0.374 0.298
Manny Ramirez LF 510.0 147.8 86.4 32.7 2.4 26.3 0.290 0.404 0.518 0.921 0.401 0.332
Casey Blake 3B 500.0 137.6 89.4 25.4 5.2 17.6 0.275 0.356 0.452 0.808 0.354 0.331
Rafael Furcal SS 600.0 164.2 122.1 27.4 5.3 9.4 0.274 0.341 0.384 0.725 0.325 0.306
Blake DeWitt 3B 400.0 103.3 63.7 25.1 2.5 12.0 0.258 0.321 0.424 0.745 0.326 0.281
Russell Martin C 515.0 131.2 101.3 20.0 0.1 9.7 0.255 0.347 0.351 0.698 0.319 0.284
James Loney 1B 550.0 156.1 114.2 24.8 2.5 14.6 0.284 0.359 0.417 0.776 0.345 0.302
Jamey Carroll 2B 200.0 53.0 44.3 6.4 1.1 1.2 0.265 0.337 0.326 0.662 0.304 0.328
Jason Repko CF 175.0 40.9 24.9 11.5 1.4 3.0 0.234 0.286 0.367 0.653 0.288 0.275
Xavier Paul RF 175.0 46.1 30.3 9.1 0.3 6.4 0.263 0.326 0.429 0.755 0.330 0.297

Sunday, November 22, 2009

NL West 2 Man Simulation Challenge


Champion: D.Fowler/T.Helton
2nd Place: A.Ethier/C.Blake
3rd Place: C.Gonzalez/T.Tulowitzki

Participants: 16 pair of NL West outfielders/infielders from the same team.

What: A 16 team double elimination tournament, where each game is played on my simulator in best four out of seven format.

Rules: Each player bats four times in the lineup, alternating throughout the lineup in the one through eight spots in the lineup. A league average pitcher will bat 9th for all teams. And a four man bench consisting of the two man team will be available for pinch hitting duties. Each team will use the same four man rotation of RHP Dan Haren, LHP Clayton Kershaw, RHP Matt Cain and LHP Clayton Richard. All bullpens will be identical. The higher seeded team will have home field advantage in the 2-3-2 format.

Notes: This tournament is for entertainment purposes only. If all goes well, I will be open to another type of tournament following this one. Current results will be posted on a game by game basis.

Game by Game Updates/Scores

Link to bracket

Monday, November 02, 2009

Game Six In The City


November 4th, World Series Game #6



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Phillies Yankees P.Martinez vs A.Pettitte Yankees 64.97% 64.66% 61% NYA 7-3


Vegas Odds

Sunday, November 01, 2009

Uno Mas


November 2nd, World Series Game #5



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Yankees Phillies A.Burnett vs C.Lee Phillies 57.45% 63.03% 60% PHI 8-6


Vegas Odds

Saturday, October 31, 2009

Start Spreading The News...


November 1st, World Series Game #4



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Yankees Phillies C.Sabathia vs J.Blanton Yankees 62.26% 62.51% 65% NYA 7-4


Vegas Odds

Thursday, October 29, 2009

Trick Or Treat Baseball


October 31st, World Series Game #3



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Yankees Phillies A.Pettitte vs C.Hamels Yankees 52.83% 46.70% 52% NYA 8-5


Vegas Odds

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Who's Your Daddy


October 29th, World Series Game #2



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Phillies Yankees P.Martinez vs A.Burnett Yankees 66.10% 58.48% 58% NYA 3-1


Vegas Odds

Monday, October 26, 2009

World Series, Tale Of The Tape


There has been a lot of talk about which team, the Yankees or the Phillies, has the best lineup. Obviously, both teams have very good offenses along with some very fine fielders. I've tried to break down which lineup is the best based on 2009 seasonal stats. What I've done is added up the WAR of each of the nine (in AL parks) or eight (in NL parks) positional players. Since WAR is a counting stat, I converted WAR to WAR per 650 plate appearances. Not perfect science, but I believe it to be a much better method than what I've been seeing out there.

Pos Yankees WAR/650PA Phillies WAR/650PA
C J.Posada 5.94 C.Ruiz 3.77
1B M.Teixeira 4.78 R.Howard 4.53
2B R.Cano 4.15 C.Utley 7.29
3B A.Rodriguez 5.59 P.Feliz 1.25
SS D.Jeter 6.72 J.Rollins 2.15
LF J.Damon 2.91 R.Ibanez 4.72
CF M.Cabrera 1.93 S.Victorino 3.18
RF N.Swisher 3.96 J.Werth 4.52
DH H.Matsui 2.95 B.Francisco 2.27
Total (DH)   38.92   33.67
Total (No DH)   35.97   31.41

So it appears that the Yankees have the better lineup. The biggest differences are at SS (whatever happened to Jimmy Rollins!??) and 3B, which is no big surprise. The Phillies have a fairly sizeable advantage at 2B, tapering off to smaller advantages at 2B, LF, CF and RF. The Yankees also have a sizeable advantage at catcher, where Jorge Posada outslugs Carlos Ruiz by a wide margin. Since WAR uses UZR, there is some wiggle room to adjust the Phillies a little higher, as most people think of Carlos Ruiz as a better defensive catcher than Jorge Posada. I won't attempt to fiddle with that and will let you adjust accordingly if at all. Later, I will look at the starting pitching and bullpens.

Sunday, October 25, 2009

When Two Tribes Go To War


October 28th, World Series Game #1



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Phillies Yankees C.Lee vs C.Sabathia Yankees 60.78% 56.96% 67% PHI 6-1


Vegas Odds

Thursday, October 22, 2009

End Of The Line


October 25th, ALCS Game #6



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Angels Yankees J.Saunders vs A.Pettitte Yankees 63.37% 67.25% 57% NYA 5-2


Vegas Odds

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

El Fin


October 22nd, ALCS Game #5



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Yankees Angels A.Burnett vs J.Lackey Angels 53.49% 55.25% 54% LAA 7-6


Vegas Odds

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Sending Out An S.O.S.


October 21st, NLCS


Click Here, To Help Rescue The Dodgers Season!!!

Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Phillies V.Padilla vs C.Hamels Phillies 56.71% 59.88% 55% PHI 10-4


Vegas Odds

Monday, October 19, 2009

Mountain Of Dreams


October 20th, ALCS



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Yankees Angels C.Sabathia vs S.Kazmir Yankees 56.14% 56.32% 60% NYA 10-1


Vegas Odds

Sunday, October 18, 2009

Back, Meet Wall.


October 19th, LCS



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Phillies R.Wolf vs J.Blanton Phillies 55.16% 48.98% 49% PHI 5-4
Yankees Angels A.Pettitte vs J.Weaver Angels 55.95% 50.41% 60% LAA 5-4


Vegas Odds

Saturday, October 17, 2009

Phillie Killer


October 18th, ALCS



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Phillies H.Kuroda vs C.Lee Phillies 63.79% 58.94% 57% PHI 11-0


Vegas Odds

Friday, October 16, 2009

Start Spreading The News


October 17th, ALCS



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Angels Yankees J.Saunders vs A.Burnett Yankees 63.77% 64.64% 60% NYA 4-3


Vegas Odds

Thursday, October 15, 2009

Only A Phillie Walks In LA


October 16th, LCS



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Xeifrank Win Prob AccuScore Win Prob Actual
Phillies Dodgers P.Martinez vs V.Padilla Dodgers 57.63% 56.70% 51% LAN 2-1
Angels Yankees J.Lackey vs C.Sabathia Yankees 62.12% 66.28% 68% NYA 4-1


Vegas Odds