Dodgers vs Rockies, April 24th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Dodgers	Rockies	E.Stults vs A.Cook	Rockies	53.90%	11.11

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Dodgers vs Astros, April 23rd

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Dodgers	Astros	C.Billingsley vs W.Rodriguez	Dodgers	51.69%	8.88

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Dodgers vs Astros, April 22nd

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Dodgers	Astros	R.Wolf vs R.Oswalt	Astros	50.80%	9.30

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Dodgers vs Astros, April 21st

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Dodgers	Astros	C.Kershaw vs R.Ortiz	Dodgers	57.90%	10.63

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No Game Today... But

Let me throw out this little mathematical tidbit. The Dodgers are off to a 10-3 start. Sure, it doesn't gaurantee squat at this point due to small sample size and the fact that the Dodgers have yet to face real, I mean any competition outside of the NL West plus a hundred other reasons. But it is 13 games, so it does mean something as there are only 149 games left in the season.

Let's say you predicted the Dodgers to win somewhere between 87-92 games before the season started this year. You now have to add around three wins to that total. Why? Well, let's use a 88 win projection as our example. 88 wins in a 162 game season is a winning percentage of 0.5432. On a 13 game pace with a 0.5432 winning percentage the Dodgers should have 7.1 wins. But they don't, they have 10. The Dodgers in this scenario have banked 2.9 wins. That's house money. So take your 88 wins and add 2.9 (let's call it three) wins, which means you have to up your win projection for the Dodgers to 91. Likewise, if you projected them as a 90 win team to start off the season, you now have to bump that up to 93. The same for the other NL West teams. If you thought the Dodgers closest competitor, the Arizona Diamondbacks was going to be an 85 win team, well they are off to a 4-8 start and need to be docked around 2 wins. So you are looking at around a 5 win swing between what you need to adjust your Dodger and Diamondbacks projections to. It still doesn't gaurantee anything, but it's always nice to have the advantage.

Rockies vs Dodgers, April 19th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Rockies	Dodgers	U.Jimenez vs J.McDonald	Dodgers	50.10%	8.95

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Rockies vs Dodgers, April 18th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Rockies	Dodgers	A.Cook vs C.Billingsley	Dodgers	64.42%	8.00

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Giants vs Dodgers, April 16th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Giants	Dodgers	B.Zito vs E.Stults	Dodgers	65.90%	8.05

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Giants vs Dodgers, April 15th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Giants	Dodgers	M.Cain vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	63.10%	7.54

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Giants vs Dodgers, April 13th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Giants	Dodgers	R.Johnson vs C.Billingsley	Dodgers	61.55%	7.28

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Dodgers vs Diamondbacks, April 12th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Dodgers	Diamondbacks	R.Wolf vs D.Haren	Diamondbacks	57.09%	9.07

Notes: I put Juan Pierre in for Matt Kemp. With Pierre in the lineup, the Diamondbacks have a win probability of 57.09%, and with Kemp in the lineup that win probability drops down to 54.89%. This is a fairly large difference. It appears as if the Dodgers and Joe Torre have confused Christmas gift giving and Easter.

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Dodgers vs Diamondbacks, April 11th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Dodgers	Diamondbacks	E.Stults vs Y.Petit	Diamondbacks	50.10%	9.91

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks, April 10th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Dodgers	Padres	J.McDonald vs J.Garland	Diamondbacks	54.71%	10.31

Who is Likely to have the Most...
Category	Most	2nd Most	3rd Most	4th Most	5th Most
Home Runs	M.Ramirez	C.Young	M.Reynolds	J.Upton	C.Jackson
Triples	S.Drew	O.Hudson	C.Young	F.Lopez	J.Upton
Doubles	O.Hudson	M.Ramirez	C.Tracy	A.Ethier	J.Loney
Singles	R.Furcal	O.Hudson	F.Lopez	M.Ramirez	M.Kemp
Walks	S.Drew	F.Lopez	C.Tracy	M.Montero	M.Ramirez
Note: Figures may change once lineup is announced.

Dodgers vs Padres, April 9th

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Dodgers	Padres	Kershaw vs Correia	Dodgers	54.20%	7.43

Opening Series of 2009...

I used my simulator to play the first six games of the Dodgers 2009 schedule. I put Manny Ramirez on the Dodgers roster and ran 10,000 simulations of each game. Here is what the simulator expects.

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Win Expectancy	Over/Under
Dodgers	Padres	Kuroda vs Peavy	Padres	50.53%	7.14
Dodgers	Padres	Wolf vs Young	Padres	50.33%	7.33
Dodgers	Padres	Billingsley vs Silva	Dodgers	61.12%	8.00

Dodgers 2009 Offseason WAR

This offseason I will be keeping track of the Dodgers team WAR tally. That is, how many wins is the current Dodger roster expected to have based on summing the WAR (Wins Above Replacement) of each individual player. As free agent signings and possible trades occur, I will update this table. Where the Dodgers have a hole in their roster, I have added a replacement level player or something close to it. The primary source of player projections I am using is ZiPS, and where ZiPs is an extreme outlier, I then use either Marcel or Chone.

Analysis: The Dodgers signed Manny Ramirez. I have him worth 4.16 WAR using Chone projections, and docking him 5 runs for defense.

Last Updated: 04-MAR-2009

Hitters
Player	Position	Playing Time	wOBA	Offensive WAR	Defensive WAR	Baserunning WAR	Position Adjustment	Total WAR
R.Martin	C	80%	.355	1.15	0.0	0.01	3.0	3.40
B.Ausmus	C	20%	.288	-2.96	-0.4	0.0	3.0	-0.07
J.Loney	1B	85%	.352	0.73	-0.5	0.0	1.0	1.05
Repl 1B	1B	15%	.319	-1.00	0.0	0.0	1.0	0.00
O.Hudson	2B	75%	.336	-0.18	0.5	0.0	2.0	1.74
M.Loretta	2B	25%	.319	-1.18	-0.10	0.0	2.0	0.18
C.Blake	3B	75%	.338	0.17	-0.4	0.0	2.3	0.79
B.Dewitt	3B	25%	.314	-1.47	0.0	0.0	2.0	0.53
R.Furcal	SS	75%	.338	0.17	0.25	0.25	2.5	2.38
C.Hu	SS	25%	.287	-2.81	0.4	0.1	2.5	0.05
M.Ramirez	LF	85%	.402	3.90	-0.5	0.0	1.5	4.16
M.Kemp	CF	85%	.350	0.90	-0.5	0.5	2.5	2.89
A.Ethier	RF	80%	.362	1.59	0.1	0.0	1.5	2.55
J.Repko	CF	25%	.317	-1.27	0.25	0.0	2.5	0.36
J.Pierre	LF/CF	25%	.299	-2.07	0.1	0.75	1.5	0.07
Hitting Total								19.89

Pitchers
Name	Pos	IP	HR	BB	SO	FIP ERA	Leverage	WAR
C.Billingsley	SP	204	14	73	195	3.25	0.0	4.06
H.Kuroda	SP	171	14	42	103	3.80	0.0	2.42
C.Kershaw	SP	175	17	76	135	4.22	0.0	1.69
R.Wolf	SP	170	19	68	140	4.21	0.0	1.67
J.McDonald	SP	70	11	29	48	5.11	0.0	0.02
E.Stults	SP	60	9	22	39	4.95	0.0	0.12
J.Schmidt	SP	40	5	16	33	4.38	0.0	0.32
R.Troncoso	SP	50	6	19	38	4.38	0.0	0.40
J.Broxton	RP	65	4	23	81	2.57	1.0	2.51
H.Guo	RP	70	5	27	82	2.94	0.6	1.90
C.Wade	RP	90	15	23	59	4.82	0.3	0.14
R.Troncoso	RP	65	6	26	55	3.91	0.1	0.60
G.Mota	RP	50	7	21	42	4.60	0.0	0.01
C.Vargas	RP	50	6	20	39	4.40	0.0	0.12
J.McDonald	RP	40	5	17	31	4.55	0.0	0.03
E.Stults	RP	30	4	11	22	4.57	0.0	0.02
J.Schmidt	RP	30	3	13	28	3.93	0.0	0.22
S.Elbert	RP	15	3	7	10	5.87	0.0	-0.19
Bullpen						5.33
Starters						10.70
All Pitchers						16.03

Team Totals
Type	WAR
Hitters	19.89
Rotation	10.70
Bullpen	5.33
Team Total	85.92

2009 Player Projections, Dodgers and Otherwise

2009 Player Projections

2009 Dodgers ZIPS
Marcels
Stat Speak
CHONE
MINER
OLIVER


... more to come.

Simulations, World Series Game #5

Teams	Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Sim Odds	Sim Total Runs	Actual Total Runs	Winner
Rays vs Phillies	S.Kazmir vs C.Hamels	Phillies	61.55%	9.84	7	Phillies

Simulation, World Series Game #4

Teams	Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Sim Odds	Sim Total Runs	Actual Total Runs	Winner
Rays vs Phillies	A.Sonnanstine vs J.Blanton	Phillies	50.99	9.89	12	Phillies
Simulator Setup File Download (Old Version)

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AccuScore

Las Vegas Hilton Odds

Simulation for World Series, Game #3

Teams	Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Sim Odds	Sim Total Runs	Actual Total Runs	Winner
Rays vs Phillies	M.Garza vs J.Moyer	Phillies	57.03%	9.69	9	Phillies
Simulator Setup File Download (Old Version)

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AccuScore

Las Vegas Hilton Odds

What's at stake in Game #3?

Situation	Rays Odds to win W.S.	Phillies Odds to win W.S.
Current Odds	48.59%	51.41%
Rays Win Game #3	70.28%	29.72%
Phillies Win Game #3	31.93%	68.07%
Methodology: I calculated the win probabilites for each of the remaining possible games, then ran a program that plays out the 7 game series 1 million times, which outputs the number of times each team won the 7 game series. If you have your own win probabilites for each game, I'd be glad to run the numbers for you based on your own game predictions.