Saturday, May 31, 2008

Simulations for Sunday, June 1st.

Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Pinnacle AccuScore Winner
Dodgers vs Mets H.Kuroda vs J.Santana Mets 51.53% 38.46% TBD 36.00% Mets
Padres vs Giants R.Wolf vs T.Lincecum Giants 57.73% 57.45% TBD 58.00% Giants
Nationals vs DBacks S.Hill vs D.Haren DBacks 68.17% 65.52% TBD 67.00% DBacks
Rockies vs Cubs U.Jiminez vs S.Gallagher Cubs 65.10% 60.78% TBD 66.00% Cubs
Simulator Setup File Download
Method Daily Points Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator 242.53 11451.42
LV Hilton Odds 245.29 11577.88
AccuScore 255.00 11587.48
Pinnacle Sports
LV Hilton leads by 1.10%
AccuScore leads by 1.19%
Note: I am currently fine tuning a more accurate comparison method. I am adding AccuScore as a 2nd comparison source. As of May 6th, I gave them the same score as my simulator.

Simulations for Saturday, May 31st

Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Pinnacle AccuScore Winner
Dodgers vs Mets C.Billingsley vs M.Pelfrey Dodgers 56.77% 53.92% TBD 54.00% Mets
Padres vs Giants J.Banks vs P.Misch Giants 53.27% 52.83% TBD 48.00% Padres
Nationals vs DBacks J.Bergmann vs B.Webb DBacks 70.87% 68.75% 68.45% 66.00% DBacks
Rockies vs Cubs G.Rusch vs R.Dempster Cubs 72.50% 69.70% TBD 73.00% Cubs
Simulator Setup File Download
Method Daily Points Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator 233.33 11218.09
LV Hilton Odds 231.70 11346.18
AccuScore 237.00 11350.48
Pinnacle Sports
LV Hilton leads by 1.14%
AccuScore leads by 1.18%
Note: I am currently fine tuning a more accurate comparison method. I am adding AccuScore as a 2nd comparison source. As of May 6th, I gave them the same score as my simulator.

Thursday, May 29, 2008

Simulations for Friday, May 30th

Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Pinnacle AccuScore Winner
Dodgers vs Mets C.Kershaw vs J.Maine Mets 53.10% 56.52% 57.81% 52.00% Dodgers
Padres vs Giants G.Maddux vs M.Cain Giants 52.13% 54.55% 53.70% 53.00% Padres
Nationals vs DBacks T.Redding vs M.Owings DBacks 65.50% 62.96% 63.64% 67.00% Nationals
Rockies vs Cubs A.Cook vs T.Lilly Cubs 55.60% 59.18% 58.68% 65.00% Cubs
Simulator Setup File Download
Method Daily Points Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator 184.87 11033.22
LV Hilton Odds 185.15 11161.03
AccuScore 193.00 11157.48
Pinnacle Sports
LV Hilton leads by 1.16%
AccuScore leads by 1.13%
Note: I am currently fine tuning a more accurate comparison method. I am adding AccuScore as a 2nd comparison source. As of May 6th, I gave them the same score as my simulator.

Wednesday, May 28, 2008

Simulations for Thursday, May 29th

Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds Pinnacle AccuScore Winner
Dodgers vs Mets B.Penny vs C.Vargas Mets 50.33% 55.56% 54.55% 50.00% Mets
Giants vs DBacks B.Zito vs R.Johnson DBacks 64.83% 64.91% 66.10% 65.00% Giants
Rockies vs Cubs J.Francis vs J.Marquis Cubs 64.47% 59.18% 59.02% 63.00% Cubs
Nationals vs Padres J.Lannan vs W.Ledezma Padres 51.00% 52.38% NA 56.00% Padres
Simulator Setup File Download
Method Daily Points Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator 190.97 10842.25
LV Hilton Odds 202.30 10958.73
AccuScore 204.00 10953.48
LV Hilton leads by 1.07%
AccuScore leads by 1.03%
Note: I am currently fine tuning a more accurate comparison method. I am adding AccuScore as a 2nd comparison source. As of May 6th, I gave them the same score as my simulator.

Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Simulations for Wednesday, May 28th

Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds AccuScore Winner
Dodgers vs Cubs D.Lowe vs C.Zambrano Cubs 64.97% 60.00% 64.00% Cubs
Giants vs DBacks J.Sanchez vs D.Davis DBacks 63.83% 60.78% 59.00% Giants
Rockies vs Phillies G.Reynolds vs A.Eaton Phillies 59.73% 61.54% 59.00% Phillies
Nationals vs Padres O.Perez vs S.Estes Padres 52.90% 55.56% 60.00% Nationals
Simulator Setup File Download
Method Daily Points Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator 207.97 10634.28
LV Hilton Odds 205.20 10753.53
AccuScore 204.00 10749.48
LV Hilton leads by 1.12%
AccuScore leads by 1.08%
Note: I am currently fine tuning a more accurate comparison method. I am adding AccuScore as a 2nd comparison source. As of May 6th, I gave them the same score as my simulator.

Monday, May 26, 2008

Simulations for Tuesday, May 27th

Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds AccuScore Winner
Dodgers vs Cubs H.Kuroda vs S.Gallagher Cubs 54.77% 48.78% 48.00% Cubs
Giants vs DBacks T.Lincecum vs D.Haren DBacks 64.40% 59.18% 60.00% Giants
Rockies vs Phillies U.Jimenez vs K.Kendrick Phillies 57.27% 62.96% 68.00% Phillies
Nationals vs Padres S.Hill vs R.Wolf Padres 54.87% 57.45% 61.00% Padres
Simulator Setup File Download
Method Daily Points Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator 202.51 10431.77
LV Hilton Odds 210.01 10543.52
AccuScore 217.00 10532.48
LV Hilton leads by 1.07%
AccuScore leads by 0.97%
Note: I am currently fine tuning a more accurate comparison method. I am adding AccuScore as a 2nd comparison source. As of May 6th, I gave them the same score as my simulator.

Sunday, May 25, 2008

Simulations for Monday, May 26th

Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds AccuScore Winner
Dodgers vs Cubs C.Billingsley vs R.Dempster Cubs 63.83% 54.55% 61.00% Cubs
DBacks vs Braves B.Webb vs J.Jurrjens DBacks 53.73% 53.49% 48.00% Braves
Rockies vs Phillies J.DeLaRosa vs J.Moyers Phillies 59.53% 62.26% 68.00% Phillies
Simulator Setup File Download
Method Daily Points Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator 169.63 10262.14
LV Hilton Odds 163.32 10380.20
AccuScore 181.00 10351.48
LV Hilton leads by 1.15%
AccuScore leads by 0.87%
Note: I am currently fine tuning a more accurate comparison method. I am adding AccuScore as a 2nd comparison source. As of May 6th, I gave them the same score as my simulator.

Saturday, May 24, 2008

Simulations for Sunday, May 25th

Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds AccuScore Winner
Cardinals vs Dodgers T.Wellemeyer vs C.Kershaw Dodgers 51.50% 52.38% 55.00% Dodgers
Reds vs Padres M.Belisle vs G.Maddux Padres 57.00% 56.52% 61.00% Padres
Mets vs Rockies J.Maine vs A.Cook Mets 50.17% 48.78% 43.00% Rockies
DBacks vs Braves M.Owings vs T.Glavine Braves 50.07% 47.62% 54.00% DBacks
Simulator Setup File Download
Method Daily Points Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator 208.26 10053.88
LV Hilton Odds 212.50 10167.70
AccuScore 219.00 10132.48
LV Hilton leads by 1.13%
AccuScore leads by 0.78%
Note: I am currently fine tuning a more accurate comparison method. I am adding AccuScore as a 2nd comparison source. As of May 6th, I gave them the same score as my simulator.

Friday, May 23, 2008

Simulations for Saturday, May 24th

Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds AccuScore Winner
Cardinals vs Dodgers K.Lohse vs B.Penny Cardinals 50.27% 40.00% 40.00% Cardinals
Reds vs Padres B.Arroyo vs W.Ledezma Padres 55.63% 48.78% 49.00% Reds
Mets vs Rockies C.Vargas vs J.Francis Mets 53.67% 43.48% 38.00% Mets
DBacks vs Braves R.Johnson vs J.Campillo Braves 51.37% 50.00% 54.00% Braves
Giants vs Marlins M.Cain vs B.Badenhop Marlins 54.90% 51.22% 51.00% PPD.
Simulator Setup File Download
Method Daily Points Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator 199.68 9854.20
LV Hilton Odds 184.70 9983.00
AccuScore 183.00 9949.48
LV Hilton leads by 1.31%
AccuScore leads by 0.97%
Note: I am currently fine tuning a more accurate comparison method. I am adding AccuScore as a 2nd comparison source. As of May 6th, I gave them the same score as my simulator.

Dodger WAR Update

Let's take a look at the WAR of primary Dodger players at this point in time (5/23).
Hitters
Name WAR
R.Furcal 7.13
R.Martin 3.97
B.DeWitt 3.53
M.Kemp 2.22
A.Ethier 1.50
J.Loney 1.48
J.Pierre 0.41
G.Bennett -0.12
D.Young -0.25
N.Garciappara -0.40
M.Sweeney 0.83
A.Jones -0.99
J.Kent -1.06
C.Hu -1.37
Hitters Total 15.23
 
Pitchers
C.Billingsley 4.16
H.Guo 3.00
D.Lowe 2.79
J.Broxton 2.69
H.Kuroda 2.24
B.Penny 2.01
J.Beimel 1.85
T>Saito 1.81
C.Wade 1.46
E.Loaiza 0.46
R.Troncoso 0.44
C.Park -0.22
S.Proctor -0.83
Pitching Total 21.88
Team Total 87.11


Keep in mind to come up with the 87.11 total we add the hitters and pitchers totals and then add an offset of 50 wins, which is the team replacement level number of wins. At the moment the WAR calculation says the Dodgers should win 87.11 games. Their current record is 25-21, which pro-rated over an 162 game season would be 88.04 wins. Keep in mind in my Pre-Season Dodger WAR study, which used 2008 ZIPS projections, I had the Dodgers with 87.50 wins. All three numbers are pretty consistent at this point in time. It will be interesting to see how things fluctuate from this point on. I will make it a habit to update this study once a week.

Thursday, May 22, 2008

Simulations for Friday, May 23rd

Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds AccuScore Winner
Cardinals vs Dodgers A.Wainwright vs D.Lowe Cardinals 53.53% 47.62% 42.00% Cardinals
Reds vs Padres E.Volquez vs S.Estes Reds 53.13% 57.45% 52.00% Reds
Mets vs Rockies O.Perez vs G.Reynolds Rockies 51.07% 50.00% 57.00% Rockies
DBacks vs Braves D.Davis vs J.Reyes Braves 51.53% 56.52% 61.00% DBacks
Giants vs Marlins B.Zito vs S.Olsen Marlins 64.23% 62.26% 62.00% Giants
Simulator Setup File Download
Method Daily Points Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator 241.97 9612.23
LV Hilton Odds 236.29 9746.71
AccuScore 228.00 9721.48
LV Hilton leads by 1.40%
AccuScore leads by 1.14%
Note: I am currently fine tuning a more accurate comparison method. I am adding AccuScore as a 2nd comparison source. As of May 6th, I gave them the same score as my simulator.

Wednesday, May 21, 2008

Simulations for Thursday, May 22nd

Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds AccuScore Winner
DBacks vs Marlins D.Haren vs A.Miller DBacks 54.10% 54.55% 59.00% Marlins
Reds vs Padres A.Harang vs R.Wolf Padres 52.27% 50.00% 45.00% Padres
Simulator Setup File Download
Method Daily Points Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator 98.17 9514.06
LV Hilton Odds 95.45 9648.26
AccuScore 86.00 9635.48
LV Hilton leads by 1.41%
AccuScore leads by 1.28%
Note: I am currently fine tuning a more accurate comparison method. I am adding AccuScore as a 2nd comparison source. As of May 6th, I gave them the same score as my simulator.

Tuesday, May 20, 2008

Simulations for Wednesday, May 21st

Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds AccuScore Winner
Reds vs Dodgers J.Cueto vs H.Kuroda Dodgers 56.63% 55.56% 60.60% Dodgers
Cardinals vs Padres B.Looper vs C.Young Padres 55.47% 55.56% 52.60% Cardinals
Giants vs Rockies J.Sanchez vs U.Jimenez Rockies 55.47% 57.45% 60.90% Giants
DBacks vs Marlins B.Webb vs R.Nolasco DBacks 55.40% 60.78% 57.60% Marlins
Simulator Setup File Download
Method Daily Points Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator 190.29 9323.77
LV Hilton Odds 181.77 9466.49
AccuScore 188.90 9446.58
LV Hilton leads by 1.53%
AccuScore leads by 1.32%
Note: I am currently fine tuning a more accurate comparison method. I am adding AccuScore as a 2nd comparison source. As of May 6th, I gave them the same score as my simulator.

Monday, May 19, 2008

Simulations for Tuesday, May 20th

Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds AccuScore Winner
Reds vs Dodgers M.Belisle vs C.Billingsley Dodgers 56.33% 62.96% 58.90% Dodgers
Cardinals vs Padres J.Pineiro vs G.Maddux Padres 58.73% 53.05% 60.90% Padres
Giants vs Rockies T.Lincecum vs A.Cook Rockies 54.53% 56.52% 59.80% Giants
DBacks vs Marlins M.Owings vs M.Hendrickson Marlins 51.77% 45.45% 51.10% Marlins
Simulator Setup File Download
Method Daily Points Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator 212.30 9111.47
LV Hilton Odds 204.94 9261.55
AccuScore 211.10 9235.48
LV Hilton leads by 1.65%
AccuScore leads by 1.36%
Note: I am currently fine tuning a more accurate comparison method. I am adding AccuScore as a 2nd comparison source. As of May 6th, I gave them the same score as my simulator.

Sunday, May 18, 2008

Simulations for Monday, May 19th

Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds AccuScore Winner
Reds vs Dodgers B.Arroyo vs B.Penny Dodgers 57.10 57.08% 61.10% Dodgers
Cardinals vs Padres T.Wellemeyer vs W.Ledezma Padres 54.37% 47.62% 46.30% Cardinals
Giants vs Rockies P.Misch vs J.DeLaRosa Rockies 53.23% 59.18% 55.40% Rockies
Simulator Setup File Download
Method Daily Points Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator 155.96 8955.51
LV Hilton Odds 168.64 9092.91
AccuScore 170.20 9065.28
LV Hilton leads by 1.53%
AccuScore leads by 1.23%
Note: I am currently fine tuning a more accurate comparison method. I am adding AccuScore as a 2nd comparison source. As of May 6th, I gave them the same score as my simulator.

Saturday, May 17, 2008

Simulations for Sunday, May 18th

Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds AccuScore Winner
Dodgers vs Angels D.Lowe vs J.Weaver Angels 51.60% 54.55% 53.40% Angels
Tigers vs DBacks N.Robertson vs R.Johnson DBacks 53.03% 56.52% 52.80% DBacks
Padres vs Mariners S.Estes vs F.Hernandez Mariners 52.83% 62.26% 61.70% Mariners
White Sox vs Giants J.Danks vs M.Cain Giants 59.63% 50.00% 54.70% White Sox
Twins vs Rockies K.Slowey vs J.Francis Rockies 53.80% 58.33% 52.40% Rockies
Simulator Setup File Download
Method Daily Points Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator 251.63 8703.88
LV Hilton Odds 281.66 8811.25
AccuScore 265.60 8799.68
LV Hilton leads by 1.23%
AccuScore leads by 0.93%
Note: I am currently fine tuning a more accurate comparison method. I am adding AccuScore as a 2nd comparison source. As of May 6th, I gave them the same score as my simulator.

Friday, May 16, 2008

Simulations for Saturday, May 17th

Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds AccuScore Winner
Dodgers vs Angels C.Park vs E.Santana Angels 52.63% 60.00% 62.60% Dodgers
Tigers vs DBacks A.Galarraga vs M.Scherzer DBacks 55.43% 55.56% 49.00% Tigers
Padres vs Mariners R.Wolf vs E.Bedard Mariners 54.13% 59.18 61.90% Mariners
White Sox vs Giants M.Buehrle vs B.Zito Giants 54.00% 45.45% 46.50% White Sox
Twins vs Rockies L.Hernandez vs G.Reynolds Rockies 53.30% 54.55% 54.00% Rockies
Simulator Setup File Download
Method Daily Points Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator 245.37 8703.88
LV Hilton Odds 252.72 8811.25
AccuScore 257.80 8799.68
LV Hilton leads by 1.23%
AccuScore leads by 0.93%
Note: I am currently fine tuning a more accurate comparison method. I am adding AccuScore as a 2nd comparison source. As of May 6th, I gave them the same score as my simulator.

Thursday, May 15, 2008

Simulations for Friday, May 16th

Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds AccuScore Winner
Dodgers vs Angels H.Kuroda vs J.Saunders Angels 50.07% 54.55% 59.30% Angels
Tigers vs DBacks J.Bonderman vs D.Haren DBacks 58.83% 57.45% 55.20% DBacks
Padres vs Seattle C.Young vs M.Batista Padres 54.37% 51.22% 54.60% Padres
White Sox vs Giants G.Floyd vs J.Sanchez Giants 56.13% 48.78% 44.70% White Sox
Twins vs Rockies N.Blackburn vs U.Jimenez Rockies 51.67% 55.56% 51.50% Twins
Simulator Setup File Download
Method Daily Points Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator 255.47 8448.41
LV Hilton Odds 258.88 8552.37
AccuScore 272.90 8526.78
LV Hilton leads by 1.23%
AccuScore leads by 0.93%
Note: I am currently fine tuning a more accurate comparison method. I am adding AccuScore as a 2nd comparison source. As of May 6th, I gave them the same score as my simulator.

Wednesday, May 14, 2008

Simulations for Thursday, May 15th

Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds AccuScore Winner
Dodgers vs Brewers C.Billingsley vs B.Sheets Brewers 57.23% 56.52% 62.20% Dodgers
Padres vs Cubs G.Maddux vs R.Dempster Padres 50.68% 41.67% 38.90% Cubs
Rockies vs DBacks A.Cook vs B.Webb DBacks 57.43% 60.78% 56.40% DBacks
Astros vs Giants C.Sampson vs T.Lincecum Giants 56.65% 57.45% 54.00% Astros
Simulator Setup File Download
Method Daily Points Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator 192.87 8255.54
LV Hilton Odds 205.14 8347.23
AccuScore 201.30 8325.48
LV Hilton leads by 1.11%
AccuScore leads by 0.85%
Note: I am currently fine tuning a more accurate comparison method. I am adding AccuScore as a 2nd comparison source. As of May 6th, I gave them the same score as my simulator.

Tuesday, May 13, 2008

Simulations for Wednesday, May 14th

Teams Playing Pitching Matchup Sim Favorite Simulator Odds Vegas Odds AccuScore Winner
Dodgers vs Brewers D.Lowe vs M.Parra Brewers 50.30% 49.50% 45.20% Dodgers
Padres vs Cubs J.Peavy vs T.Lilly Padres 50.30% 51.22% 45.60% Cubs
Rockies vs DBacks J.DeLaRosa vs M.Owings DBacks 56.13% 59.18% 64.70% DBacks
Astros vs Giants B.Moehler vs P.Misch Astros 50.07% 51.22% 48.70% Astros
Simulator Setup File Download
Method Daily Points Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator 205.60 8049.94
LV Hilton Odds 209.68 8137.55
AccuScore 222.60 8102.88
LV Hilton leads by 1.09%
AccuScore leads by 0.66%
Note: I am currently fine tuning a more accurate comparison method. I am adding AccuScore as a 2nd comparison source. As of May 6th, I gave them the same score as my simulator.
Note: Log5 method won't be used until approximately May 15th.