Dodger Pitching Comparables

Depth at starting pitching is a strength of the Dodgers team. There is alot of question as to who the Dodgers should use as a 5th starter, or even a 4th starter if Jason Schmidt is not healthy to start the season. I have put together a matrix listing the most similar Dodger starting pitchers. Keep in mind that I am no Bill James, and this may or may not be of any importance. The three variables I am using to find similarities between starting pitchers are K/9, HR/9 and (K-BB)/IP. I am not taking age or health into consideration, this is a pure statistical analysis, which uses 2008 ZIPS projections as it's input data. I have a utility that calculates the similarity scores for me and I choose these three categories based on what I felt was most important. I could have easily choosen different categories. I am throwing in NL Cy Young Award winner Jake Peavy just to get a fill as to which Dodger pitcher has the closest similarity score as the best National League pitcher. The formula used to compute the similarity scores was the square root of the deltas squared of the three categories summed together. Deltas are measured by the percent difference in each category.
Sqrt((xp1-xp2)^2 + (yp1-yp2)^2 + (zp1-zp2)^2)
Where x=K/9, y=HR/9, z=K-BB/IP, p1=Player1, p2=Player2, p3=Player3
See comments below...

Dodger Starting Pitcher Similarity Score Matrix
	Penny	Lowe	Billingsley	Schmidt	Loaiza	Guo	Houlton	Stults	Kuroda	Peavy
Penny	NA	.3403	.3804	.5192	.7853	.7809	1.1192	.8550	.4605	.9946
Lowe	.3403	NA	.3567	.6444	.3758	.8664	.6239	.4291	.2165	1.2509
Billingsley	.3804	.3567	NA	.2876	.4263	.4818	.6902	.5500	.2408	.8788
Schmidt	.5192	.6444	.2876	NA	.6841	.2102	.9839	.8967	.4509	.4811
Loaiza	.7853	.3758	.4263	.6841	NA	.7995	.2323	.1940	.2691	1.3179
Guo	.7809	.8664	.4818	.2102	.7995	NA	1.0784	1.0710	.6094	.4127
Houlton	1.1193	.6239	.6902	.9839	.2323	1.0784	NA	.1662	.5451	1.7185
Stults	.8550	.4291	.5500	.8967	.1940	1.0710	.1662	NA	.4434	1.6733
Kuroda	.4605	.2165	.2408	.4509	.2691	.6094	.5451	.4434	NA	.9795
Peavy	.9946	1.2509	.8788	.4811	1.3179	.4127	1.7185	1.6733	.9795	NA

You will notice that HongZhi Guo and Jason Schmidt have the closest similarity scores to 2007 Cy Young winner Jake Peavy and of the most likely top 5 starters, Esteban Loaiza and Derek Lowe are the least similar to Jake Peavy. While Loaiza has a very close similarity score to Houlton and Stults, Loaiza is much more similar than Houlton and Stults to the stronger Dodger pitchers. I may add more NL West starting pitchers at a later date and a possible rundown of Dodger hitter similarity scores. Below is a list of the top 10 similarity scores of Dodger starting pitchers.

Rank	Pitchers	Similarity Score
1	Houlton/Stults	.1662
2	Loaiza/Stults	.1940
3	Schmidt/Guo	.2102
4	Lowe/Kuroda	.2165
5	Loaiza/Houlton	.2323
6	Billingsley/Kuroda	.2408
7	Loaiza/Kuroda	.2691
8	Billingsley/Schmidt	.2876
9	Penny/Lowe	.3403
10	Lowe/Billingsley	.3567

2008 Player Projections

Matt Kemp
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	M.Kemp	.322	.365	.508	.873
CHONE	M.Kemp	.289	.337	.467	.804
ZIPS	M.Kemp	.303	.348	.483	.831
Marcel	M.Kemp	.311	.356	.490	.846
PECOTA	M.Kemp	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
Jeff Kent
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	J.Kent	.290	.368	.486	.854
CHONE	J.Kent	.273	.356	.452	.808
ZIPS	J.Kent	.268	.352	.444	.796
Marcel	J.Kent	.281	.362	.464	.826
PECOTA	J.Kent	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
Andre Ethier
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	A.Ethier	.304	.371	.477	.847
CHONE	A.Ethier	.279	.348	.436	.784
ZIPS	A.Ethier	.288	.357	.459	.816
Marcel	A.Ethier	.295	.361	.466	.827
PECOTA	A.Ethier	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
Russell Martin
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	R.Martin	.292	.379	.456	.835
CHONE	R.Martin	.282	.376	.438	.814
ZIPS	R.Martin	.280	.365	.432	.797
Marcel	R.Martin	.293	.371	.459	.830
PECOTA	R.Martin	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
Andy LaRoche
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	A.LaRoche	.275	.367	.458	.825
CHONE	A.LaRoche	.268	.356	.455	.811
ZIPS	A.LaRoche	.256	.343	.431	.774
Marcel	A.LaRoche	.265	.354	.413	.767
PECOTA	A.LaRoche	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
James Loney
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	J.Loney	.302	.359	.465	.823
CHONE	J.Loney	.284	.347	.431	.778
ZIPS	J.Loney	.296	.350	.470	.820
Marcel	J.Loney	.315	.372	.514	.886
PECOTA	J.Loney	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
Andruw Jones
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	A.Jones	.253	.343	.491	.834
CHONE	A.Jones	.249	.345	.491	.836
ZIPS	A.Jones	.249	.344	.503	.847
Marcel	A.Jones	.248	.337	.479	.816
PECOTA	A.Jones	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
Nomar Garciappara
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	N.Garciappara	.292	.347	.451	.798
CHONE	N.Garciappara	.282	.340	.423	.763
ZIPS	N.Garciappara	.268	.329	.384	.713
Marcel	N.Garciappara	.281	.336	.425	.761
PECOTA	N.Garciappara	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
Rafael Furcal
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	R.Furcal	.286	.352	.403	.755
CHONE	R.Furcal	.277	.348	.394	.742
ZIPS	R.Furcal	.276	.346	.387	.733
Marcel	R.Furcal	.281	.348	.407	.755
PECOTA	R.Furcal	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
Delwyn Young
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	D.Young	.258	.307	.429	.736
CHONE	D.Young	.258	.307	.429	.736
ZIPS	D.Young	.255	.295	.408	.703
Marcel	D.Young	.286	.350	.464	.815
PECOTA	D.Young	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
Tony Abreu
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	T.Abreu	.288	.332	.399	.731
CHONE	T.Abreu	.275	.321	.394	.715
ZIPS	T.Abreu	.267	.313	.362	.675
Marcel	T.Abreu	.280	.337	.433	.770
PECOTA	T.Abreu	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
Juan Pierre
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	J.Pierre	.298	.343	.361	.703
CHONE	J.Pierre	.288	.333	.363	.696
ZIPS	J.Pierre	.277	.318	.347	.665
Marcel	J.Pierre	.284	.329	.370	.699
PECOTA	J.Pierre	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD

Pitchers

Brad Penny
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	195	6.42	2.24	0.39	0.74	3.83	1.33
CHONE	195	6.18	1.97	0.34	0.83	4.11	1.38
ZIPS	200	6.39	2.33	0.41	0.72	3.82	1.33
Baseball HQ	203	6.10	1.96	0.33	0.9	3.90	1.36
Derek Lowe
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	212	5.69	1.96	0.34	0.81	3.78	1.31
CHONE	207	5.96	2.21	0.36	0.78	3.70	1.30
ZIPS	210	5.79	2.33	0.37	0.94	3.99	1.30
Baseball HQ	218	5.90	2.31	0.37	0.7	3.84	1.31
Chad Billingsley
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	185	8.66	2.09	0.50	0.88	3.79	1.35
CHONE	147	8.51	2.11	0.50	1.04	3.98	1.37
ZIPS	180	7.70	1.97	0.42	0.95	4.00	1.40
Baseball HQ	189	8.30	2.05	0.47	0.8	3.52	1.32
Jason Schmidt
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	145	8.63	2.48	0.57	0.81	3.41	1.25
CHONE	117	7.54	1.92	0.40	1.08	4.15	1.38
ZIPS	119	8.55	2.26	0.53	0.91	4.08	1.36
Baseball HQ	145	7.8	1.92	0.41	1.20	4.41	1.41
Esteban Loaiza
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	120	6.15	2.41	0.40	1.05	4.35	1.39
CHONE	126	5.93	1.93	0.32	1.14	4.57	1.40
ZIPS	127	6.38	1.48	0.37	1.28	4.89	1.43
Baseball HQ	174	4.80	1.48	0.17	1.20	4.91	1.51
Hiroki Kuroda
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
CHONE	181	6.81	2.80	0.49	1.04	3.78	1.23
ZIPS	180	5.70	3.08	0.43	1.05	3.92	1.24
Baseball HQ	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
HongZhi Guo
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
CHONE	66	9.00	2.28	0.56	0.95	4.09	1.38
ZIPS	78	9.23	2.42	0.60	1.04	4.38	1.37
Baseball HQ	73	10.90	2.51	0.73	0.60	4.32	1.35
D.J. Houlton
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	34	6.88	2.00	0.38	1.32	4.76	1.44
CHONE	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
ZIPS	138	6.37	1.83	0.32	1.50	5.15	1.46
Baseball HQ	44	5.50	1.35	0.16	1.40	5.32	1.84
Eric Stults
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	53	7.30	2.05	0.42	1.02	5.26	1.57
CHONE	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
ZIPS	147	6.31	1.81	0.31	1.29	5.14	1.50
Baseball HQ	29	6.20	1.54	0.24	0.60	4.34	1.52
Takashi Saito
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	68	9.00	3.78	0.74	0.93	3.31	1.13
CHONE	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
ZIPS	66	10.91	4.44	0.94	0.68	2.05	1.00
Baseball HQ	58	10.4	4.19	0.88	0.90	2.79	1.03
Jonathon Broxton
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	83	11.17	3.32	0.87	0.54	3.04	1.19
CHONE	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
ZIPS	96	10.7	3.97	0.90	0.75	2.91	1.14
Baseball HQ	58	10.9	3.89	0.90	0.60	2.64	1.12
Joe Beimel
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	66	5.05	1.37	0.15	0.68	4.09	1.45
CHONE	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
ZIPS	73	5.18	1.68	0.23	0.62	3.95	1.37
Baseball HQ	44	4.90	1.50	0.18	0.80	4.30	1.36
Eric Hull
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
CHONE	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
ZIPS	72	8.25	2.06	0.47	0.88	4.00	1.39
Baseball HQ	29	8.10	1.86	0.41	0.60	3.72	1.72
Rudy Seanez
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	78	9.69	2.33	0.62	1.04	4.15	1.41
CHONE	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
ZIPS	65	9.28	2.39	0.60	1.11	4.15	1.40
Baseball HQ	44	8.20	2.00	0.45	1.00	3.90	1.36
Scott Proctor
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	80	7.65	2.06	0.44	1.46	4.50	1.38
CHONE	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
ZIPS	93	8.13	2.15	0.48	1.55	4.65	1.40
Baseball HQ	58	6.80	1.69	0.31	1.40	4.34	1.48
Jonathon Meloan
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
CHONE	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
ZIPS	72	9.50	2.38	0.61	1.75	5.00	1.40
Baseball HQ	44	9.80	2.09	0.57	1.00	3.89	1.32

2007 Projection Accuracy Study

Simulation picks World Series Champion

Congratulations to the Boston Red Sox on winning the 2007 World Series, and congratulations to my simulator for correctly picking (on February 13th) the Red Sox to be the champions.

What's next for the simulator? There will be some improvements made to the simulator and some study done on what statistics to use as input into the simulator as to best compete with the Las Vegas sports books. Las Vegas outperformed the simulator by 1.12% during the regular season. This is a very slim margin, but I hope to narrow that number to as close as zero as I can using sound methodology.

I will be making less frequent posts during the offseason, but will still be running some studies and posting them here when available.

And don't forget to pickup one of the professionally designed Dodger Sims T-Shirts available online.

Simulations for Sunday, October 28th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Log5	Winner
Red Sox vs Rockies	J.Lester vs A.Cook	Rockies	56.81	42.55	56.82	Red Sox
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Simulations for Saturday, October 27th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Log5	Winner
Red Sox vs Rockies	D.Matsuzaka vs J.Fogg	Rockies	51.85	43.29	56.82	Red Sox
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Current Odds To Win W.S.
Xeifrank's Simulator	48.15	80.43%
LV Hilton Odds	56.71	89.23
Log5 Method	43.18	84.11
LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

Simulations for Thursday, October 25th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Log5	Winner
Rockies vs Red Sox	U.Jimenez vs C.Schilling	Rockies	51.85	34.84%	35.33	Red Sox
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Current Odds To Win W.S.
Xeifrank's Simulator	48.15	Red Sox 64.20%
LV Hilton Odds	65.16	Red Sox 78.45%
Log5 Method	64.67	Red Sox 73.24%
LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

Simulations for Wednesday, October 24th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Log5	Winner
Rockies vs Red Sox	J.Francis vs J.Beckett	Red Sox	52.10	67.21	64.67	Red Sox
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Current Odds To Win W.S.
Xeifrank's Simulator	52.10	Rockies 51.00%
LV Hilton Odds	67.21	Red Sox 66.00%
Log5 Method	64.67	Red Sox 62.10%
LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

Simulations for Sunday, October 21st

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Log5	Winner
Indians vs Red Sox	J.Westbrook vs D.Matsuzaka	Red Sox	51.00	60.78	58.29	Red Sox
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	51.00
LV Hilton Odds	60.78
Log5 Method	58.29
LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

Simulations for Saturday, October 20th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Log5	Winner
Indians vs Red Sox	F.Carmona vs C.Schilling	Indians	50.77	44.44	41.71	Red Sox
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	49.23
LV Hilton Odds	55.56
Log5 Method	58.29
LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

Simulations for Thursday, October 18th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Log5	Winner
Red Sox vs Indians	J.Beckett vs C.Sabathia	Indians	51.48	46.51	58.46	Red Sox
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	48.52
LV Hilton Odds	53.49
Log5 Method	41.54
LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

Simulations for Tuesday, October 16th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Log5	Winner
Red Sox vs Indians	T.Wakefield vs P.Byrd	Red Sox	52.60	50.00	41.54	Indians
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	47.40
LV Hilton Odds	50.00
Log5 Method	58.46
LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

Simulations for Monday, October 15th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
DBacks vs Rockies	M.Owings vs F.Morales	Rockies	52.60	62.69	Rockies
Red Sox vs Indians	D.Matsuzaka vs J.Westbrook	Red Sox	50.76	53.49	Indians
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	101.84
LV Hilton Odds	109.20
LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

Simulations for Sunday, October 14th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
DBacks vs Rockies	L.Hernandez vs J.Fogg	Rockies	58.40	59.18	TBD
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	58.40
LV Hilton Odds	59.18
LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

Simulations for Saturday, October 13th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Indians vs Red Sox	F.Carmona vs C.Schilling	Indians	51.16	43.48	Indians
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	51.16
LV Hilton Odds	43.48
LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

Simulations for Friday, October 12th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Rockies vs DBacks	U.Jimenez vs D.Davis	Rockies	57.50	48.78	Rockies
Indians vs Red Sox	C.Sabathia vs J.Beckett	Red Sox	52.45	59.51	Red Sox
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	109.95
LV Hilton Odds	108.29
LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

Simulations for Thursday, October 11th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Rockies vs DBacks	J.Francis vs B.Webb	DBacks	52.08	55.56	Rockies
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	47.92
LV Hilton Odds	44.44
LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

Simulations for Monday, October 8th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Indians vs Yankees	P.Byrd vs C.Wang	Yankees	61.35	TBD	Indians
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	0.00	9052.34
LV Hilton Odds	0.00	9157.33
LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

Simulations for Sunday, October 7th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Red Sox vs Angels	C.Schilling vs J.Weaver	Angels	51.00	TBD	Red Sox
Indians vs Yankees	J.Westbrook vs R.Clemens	Yankees	57.70	TBD	Yankees
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	0.00	9052.34
LV Hilton Odds	0.00	9157.33
LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

Simulations for Saturday, October 6th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
DBacks vs Cubs	L.Hernandez vs R.Hill	Cubs	61.20	TBD	DBacks
Phillies vs Rockies	J.Moyer vs U.Jimenez	Rockies	61.35	60.00	Rockies
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	0.00	9052.34
LV Hilton Odds	0.00	9157.33
LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

Simulations for Friday, October 5th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Yankees vs Indians	A.Pettitte vs F.Carmona	Yankees	53.45	TBD	Indians
Angels vs Red Sox	K.Escobar vs D.Matsuzaka	Angels	52.30	40.82	Red Sox
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	0.00	9189.54
LV Hilton Odds	0.00	9292.59
LV Hilton leads by 1.12%