Simulations for Monday, April 30th

Simulations for Monday, April 30th. Current prediction record is 18-19.
Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Favored Team	Expected Chance of Winning	Outcome
DBacks vs Dodgers	B.Webb vs R.Wolf	DBacks	51.11	DBacks
Rockies vs Giants	J.Fogg vs N.Lowry	Giants	53.94	Giants
Nationals vs Padres	J.Patterson vs J.Peavy	Padres	57.72	Nationals
Cardinals vs Brewers	K.Wells vs J.Suppan	Brewers	53.33	Brewers

Simulations for Friday, April 27th

Simulations for Friday, April 27th. Current prediction record is 16-17.
Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Favored Team	Expected Chance of Winning	Outcome
Dodgers vs Padres	M.Hendrickson vs C.Hensley	Padres	61.83	Dodgers
Giants vs DBacks	B.Zito vs D.Davis	DBacks	58.83	DBacks
Braves vs Rockies	C.James vs J.Francis	Braves	65.67	Braves
Red Sox vs Yankees	D.Matsuzaka vs A.Pettitte	Yankees	53.62	Red Sox

Simulations for Thursday, April 26th

Simulations for Thursday, April 26th. Current prediction record is 16-14.
Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Favored Team	Expected Chance of Winning	Outcome
Giants vs Dodgers	R.Ortiz vs B.Penny	Dodgers	64.88	Giants
Padres vs DBacks	C.Young vs L.Hernandez	Padres	50.50	DBacks
Blue Jays vs Yankees	A.Burnett vs P.Hughes	Yankees	64.38	Blue Jays

Simulations for Wednesday, April 25th

Simulations for Wednesday, April 25th. Current prediction record is 15-12.
Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Favored Team	Expected Chance of Winning	Outcome
Giants vs Dodgers	N.Lowry vs R.Wolf	Dodgers	53.11	Giants
Padres vs DBacks	J.Peavy vs B.Webb	DBacks	57.16	DBacks
Rockies vs Mets	J.Fogg vs M.Pelfrey	Mets	79.33	Rockies

Simulations for Tuesday, April 24th

Simulations for Tuesday, April 24th. Current prediction record is 14-10.
Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Favored Team	Expected Chance of Winning	Outcome
Giants vs Dodgers	M.Morris vs D.Lowe	Dodgers	64.00	Giants
Padres vs DBacks	D.Wells vs R.Johnson	DBacks	64.72	Padres
Rockies vs Mets	A.Cook vs O.Hernandez	Mets	68.66	Mets

Simulations for Monday, April 23rd

Simulations for Monday, April 23rd. Current prediction record is 13-8.
Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Favored Team	Expected Chance of Winning	Outcome
Braves vs Marlins	K.Davies vs D.Willis	Marlins	50.66	Marlins
Tigers vs Angels	M.Maroth vs J.Weaver	Angels	54.44	Tigers
A's vs Orioles	D.Haren vs E.Bedard	Orioles	52.50	A's

Simulations for Sunday, April 22nd

Simulations for Sunday, April 22nd. Current prediction record is 12-7.
Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Favored Team	Expected Chance of Winning	Outcome
Pirates vs Dodgers	T.Gorzelanny vs B.Tomko	Dodgers	55.78	Pirates
Braves vs Mets	J.Smoltz vs T.Glavine	Braves	53.87	Braves

Simulations for Saturday, April 21st

Simulations for Saturday, April 21st. Current prediction record is 10-4.
Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Favored Team	Expected Chance of Winning	Outcome
Pirates vs Dodgers	I.Snell vs B.Penny	Dodgers	56.27	Dodgers
DBacks vs Giants	E.Gonzalez vs B.Zito	Giants	51.48%	Giants
Padres vs Rockies	C.Hensley vs S.Francis	Rockies	51.27%	Padres
Yankees vs Red Sox	J.Karstens vs J.Beckett	Yankees	51.00%	Red Sox
Astros vs Brewers	W.Rodriguez vs C.Capuano	Astros	50.33%	Brewers

Simulations for Friday, April 20th

Simulations for friday, April 20th. Current prediction record is 7-3.
Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Favored Team	Expected Chance of Winning	Outcome
Pirates vs Dodgers	T.Armas vs R.Wolf	Dodgers	54.54	Dodgers
DBacks vs Giants	D.Davis vs R.Ortiz	DBacks	54.55	Giants
Padres vs Rockies	C.Young vs J.Fogg	Padres	52.44	Padres
Yankees vs Red Sox	A.Pettitte vs C.Schilling	Red Sox	53.84	Red Sox

Simulations for Thursday April 19th

Simulations for Thursday April 19th. Current prediction record is 5-2.
Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Favored Team	Expected Chance of Winning	Outcome
Dodgers vs Rockies	M.Hendrickson vs A.Cook	Rockies	57.27	Dodgers
Cardinals vs Giants	K.Wells vs N.Lowry	Giants	53.41	Giants
DBacks vs Padres	L.Hernandez vs J.Peavy	Padres	60.86	Padres

Simulations for Wednesday April 18th

Simulations for Wednesday April 18th. Current prediction record is 3-2.
Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Favored Team	Expected Chance of Winning	Outcome
Dodgers vs Rockies	D.Lowe vs R.Lopez	Rockies	50.05	Rockies
DBacks vs Padres	B.Webb vs D.Wells	Tie	50.00	DBacks
Cardinals vs Giants	R.Keisler vs M.Morris	Giants	53.44	Giants

Simulations for Tuesday April 17th

Simulations for Monday April 16th. Current prediction record is 2-0.
Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Favored Team	Expected Chance of Winning	Outcome
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks	B.Tomko vs M.Owings	Diamondbacks	52.72	Dodgers
Padres vs Cubs	G.Maddux vs W.Miller	Cubs	53.77	Padres
Giants vs Rockies	M.Cain vs J.Hirsh	Rockies	51.33	Rockies

Simulations for Monday April 16th...

Simulations for Monday April 16th.
Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Favored Team	Expected Chance of Winning	Outcome
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks	B.Penny vs E.Gonzalez	Dodgers	50.33	Dodgers
Padres vs Cubs	C.Hensley vs J.Marquis	Cubs	50.72	Cubs

Simulation Madness

2007 Pre-Season Simulation Championship Tournament
each round is best 4 out of 7 games.
1R	2R	QF	SF	Finals	Champion
(16) WAS - 2
	(1) STL - 4
(1) STL - 4
		(1) STL - 3
(9) MIL - 4
	(9) MIL - 1
(8) HOU - 1
			(4) CHN - 4
(13) SF - 0
	(4) CHN - 4
(4) CHN - 4
		(4) CHN - 4
(12) FLA - 4
	(12) FLA - 3
(5) PHI - 2
				(4) CHN - 2
(14) PIT - 4
	(14) PIT - 3
(3) SD - 3
		(11) ATL - 3
(11) ATL - 4
	(11) ATL - 4
(6) ARI - 0
			(2) NYM - 2
(10) CIN - 1
	(7) LAD - 2
(7) LAD - 4
		(2) NYM - 4
(15) COL - 3
	(2) NYM - 4
(2) NYM - 4
					Boston
BYE
	(1) DET - 1
(1) DET
		(9) CLE - 3
(9) CLE - 4
	(9) CLE - 4
(8) LAA - 1
			(4) MIN - 3
(12) BAL - 3
	(5) TOR - 2
(5) TOR - 4
		(4) MIN - 4
(13) TB - 2
	(4) MIN - 3
(4) MIN - 4
				(3) BOS - 4
(11) SEA - 0
	(6) OAK - 3
(6) OAK - 4
		(3) BOS - 4
(14) KC - 3
	(3) BOS - 4
(3) BOS - 4
			(3) BOS - 4
(10) TEX- 2
	(7) CWS - 1
(7) CWS - 4
		(2) NYY - 2
BYE
	(2) NYY - 4
(2) NYY

2007 NL West Overview

All the data is in from my NL West head to head simulations. Each team was pitted against each other, with each pitcher facing each pitcher in a 2500 game simulation. The simulation was not measuring Pitcher A vs Pitcher B, it was measuring Pitcher A + Offese A + Bullpen A vs Pitcher B + Offense B + Bullpen B. My findings are not meant as gospel, they are only meant to provide another data source for predicting how the NL West will finish.

Summary:

San Diego Padres: The Padres dominated the simulations with a rotation that went four deep (Peavy, Young, Maddux and Hensley). Only Brandon Webb and Randy Johnson were able to breakthrough against the foursome. The Padres success came from their pitching, both the starting rotation and the bullpen. The offense was adequate enough for the NL West. The Padres are the favorite to win the NL West.

Arizona Diamondbacks: The youth has thawed out. The Diamondbacks are ready to throw their young guns to the fire. The offense is littered with talent and inexperience. Past his prime, outfielder Luis Gonzalez is pitching his tent at Chavez Ravine. The youth is talented and should be able to hold it's own in the NL West. The acquisition of Randy Johnson and Doug Davis solidify a rotation that was being carried by Cy Young winner Brandon Webb. The Diamondbacks biggest concern has to be their depth, and with Johnson's injury history alot of the team's success will hinge on his health. Webb and Peavy will get most of the aclilades, but a healthy Johnson could prove to be just as good. The Diamondbacks are predicted for a 2nd place tie.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Youth is also on the Dodgers menu, but the regular chef is at home trimming his mustache. Therefore the Dodgers have served up a five course meal of Juan Pierre, an over-ripe Luis Gonzalez, a tender slab of Randy Wolf, two scoops of Nomar with a cherry on top. The Dodgers will benefit from their depth, but will also suffer from the more talented youth that will be blocked for atleast another year (Loney, Kemp and LaRoche). Guo should be in the starting rotation and Billingsley should eventually find his way into the rotation too. The Dodger offense will struggle to score runs but luckily for them the rotation is solid for the most part and the bullpen should have atleast three very good arms. The Dodgers depth should help put the Dodgers on equal footing as the Diamondbacks in the final standings.

San Francisco Giants: Starting pitching should be a wash from last year with the departure of Schmidt and the addition of Zito and Sanchez to the starting rotation. The bullpen was awful last year, and in good news, should regress back towards the mean this year (that is of course if they trade Benitez). The Giants do have some good young arms in their system, wake me up when Tim Lincecum gets called up. A good impression is not what you get from the Giants lineup. When Bonds is healthy the offense is average but when he's not... the Giants better hope for rain. Any finish above fourth place will be a surprise. Last place is more likely than 2nd place.

Colorado Rockies: Fresh new faces at both the top and bottom of the order. This years Rockies are not your grandmothers Rockies. Taveras and Kaz Matsui attempt to match the top of the Dodgers order slap single for slap single. The Rockies offense won't strike fear into many teams and the pitching staff will strike fear into those sitting in the left field bleachers. The Rockies jettisonned one of their best starting pitchers in Jeff Francis to the Houston Astros, in a deal that will have short term woes but long term gains (Hirsh). The Rockies shouldn't be much of a factor in the NL West in 2007. They should have solid ownership of the NL West cellar for most of the season. Well, maybe they are your grandmothers Rockies afterall.

ZIPS Simulation: Giants vs Rockies

Each pitching matchup simulated 2500 times. Most likely lineup was used for both teams (RotoTimes). Winning percentage is listed for the pitcher on the left most column. Half of the games played at home, half on the road. This simulation is a measure of Pitcher A + Offense A + Bullpen A vs Pitcher B + Offense B + Bullpen B, not just Pitcher A vs Pitcher B.
Giants vs Rockies
Pitcher	Cook	Francis	Fogg	Kim	Lopez
Cain	.605	.593	.663	.627	.658
Zito	.577	.597	.646	.636	.662
Lowry	.568	.578	.631	.586	.633
Morris	.561	.556	.588	.573	.611
Sanchez	.544	.566	.638	.583	.621

Standard error: 0.01

	> .675	> .650	> .625	> .600	> .575	> .550	> .525	> .500
Giants	0	3	6	3	7	5	1	0
Rockies	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

ZIPS Simulation: Diamondbacks vs Rockies

Each pitching matchup simulated 2500 times. Most likely lineup was used for both teams (RotoTimes). Winning percentage is listed for the pitcher on the left most column. Half of the games played at home, half on the road. This simulation is a measure of Pitcher A + Offense A + Bullpen A vs Pitcher B + Offense B + Bullpen B, not just Pitcher A vs Pitcher B.
Diamondbacks vs Rockies
Pitcher	Cook	Francis	Fogg	Kim	Lopez
Webb	.626	.663	.701	.656	.709
Johnson	.624	.653	.675	.651	.712
Hernandez	.582	.553	.659	.585	.637
Davis	.613	.646	.687	.658	.693
Ed.Gonzalez	.499	.572	.583	.568	.583

Standard error: 0.01

	> .675	> .650	> .625	> .600	> .575	> .550	> .525	> .500
Diamondbacks	5	7	3	2	4	3	0	0
Rockies	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1

ZIPS Simulation: Padres vs Dodgers

Each pitching matchup is game simulated 2500 times, using input stats from ZIPS. Most likely lineup was used for both teams (RotoTimes). Winning percentage is listed for the pitcher on the left most column. These simulations are meant to measure Pitcher A + Offense A + Bullpen A vs Pitcher B + Offense B + Bullpen B. Not just Pitcher A vs Pitcher B.
Padres vs Dodgers
Pitcher	Schmidt	Lowe	Penny	Wolf	Billingsley	Guo
Peavy	.550	.536	.563	.592	.607	.554
Young	.519	.502	.535	.578	.572	.541
Maddux	.524	.509	.540	.573	.569	.526
Hensley	.518	.528	.518	.548	.548	.527
Wells	.487	.473	.476	.524	.528	.490

Standard error: 0.01

	> .675	> .650	> .625	> .600	> .575	> .550	> .525	> .500
Padres	0	0	0	1	2	5	11	7
Dodgers	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	3

ZIPS Simulation: Padres vs Diamondbacks

Each pitching matchup simulated 2500 times. Most likely lineup was used for both teams (RotoTimes). Winning percentage is listed for the pitcher on the left most column. The sim is not measuring Pitcher A vs Pitcher B, it is measuring (Pitcher A + Offense A + Bullpen A) vs (Pitcher B + Offense B + Bullpen B).
Padres vs Diamondbacks
Pitcher	Webb	Johnson	Hernandez	Davis	Ed.Gonzalez
Peavy	.531	.535	.620	.572	.606
Young	.490	.465	.592	.524	.566
Maddux	.506	.502	.591	.546	.581
Hensley	.508	.484	.580	.535	.584
Wells	.435	.445	.538	.512	.547

Standard error: 0.01

	> .675	> .650	> .625	> .600	> .575	> .550	> .525	> .500
Padres	0	0	0	2	5	2	6	5
Diamondbacks	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	2

ZIPS Simulation: Giants vs Dodgers

Each pitching matchup is game simulated 2500 times, using input stats from ZIPS. Most likely lineup was used for both teams (RotoTimes). Winning percentage is listed for the pitcher on the left most column. Think of this as Pitcher A + Offense A vs Pitcher B + Offense B, not Pitcher A vs Pitcher B.
Dodgers vs Giants
Pitcher	Cain	Zito	Lowry	Morris	Sanchez
Schmidt	.560	.565	.568	.581	.587
Lowe	.570	.583	.564	.563	.593
Penny	.560	.539	.574	.575	.582
Wolf	.532	.527	.525	.529	.560
Billingsley	.512	.527	.524	.527	.549
Guo	.534	.547	.539	.562	.586

Standard error: 0.01

	> .675	> .650	> .625	> .600	> .575	> .550	> .525	> .500
Dodgers	0	0	0	0	6	11	10	3
Giants	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0