Saturday, August 31, 2013

Padres vs Dodgers - Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores


RankPadresDodgersOccurrences
12355788
21251212
33444778
43232576
51330687
62129992
74528260
80127658
92427346
104324843
111423507
120222468
133121829
144220038
150319545
162519090
173518663
184116462
191515952
205615729
211015558
225415481
230415181
242014327
255314262
263013407
275212944
282612185
293611785
300511092
311611041
325111034
334610413
344010100
35628484
36648458
37658440
38638335
39278203
40067738
41177515
42677439
43377258
44616969
45506434
46476407
47285503
48725281
49075274
50735209

Pitching Matchup: Andrew Cashner vs Chris Capuano

Thursday, August 29, 2013

Padres vs Dodgers - Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores 8/30


RankPadresDodgersOccurrences
11261605
22358593
33442281
40139083
51335723
62132364
70231376
83231309
92427827
101427289
110327192
124524845
134321571
143121226
150420705
161019541
172519382
181518799
194217739
203517020
212015908
220515362
234114752
243013197
251613139
265412646
272612384
285612182
295311590
300610731
315210656
323610651
33519332
34409317
35178857
36468739
37278133
38077530
39626731
40646449
41656417
42376391
43636376
44186005
45675738
46505644
47285548
48615449
49475044
50084914

Pitching Matchup: Eric Stults vs Hyun-Jin Ryu

Padres vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 8/30




Notes:
- One million games simulated.
- Dodgers Vegas win expectancy 66.1%

Wednesday, August 28, 2013

Cubs vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 8/28




Note: 1 million games simulated

Tuesday, August 27, 2013

Cubs vs Dodgers - Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores 8/28


Wednesday's Cubs vs Dodgers game.  One million simulations.

RankCubsDodgersOccurences
11256539
22355541
33441603
40134203
52132005
61331654
73231280
80226421
92426195
104524959
111424953
123123305
130322595
144322257
154219691
161019287
172518837
181517410
190417301
202017074
214116868
223516785
233014677
240513428
255613044
265312939
275412893
282612834
295212647
301612600
313611250
324011154
335110625
34069507
35469086
36178837
37278775
38627530
39637427
40377287
41647017
42656802
43076604
44506557
45616312
46676109
47285955
48475897
49185857
50384639

Cubs vs Dodgers - Top 50 Most Likely Scores 8/27


Using my simulator to simulate one million games, here is the list of the top fifty most likely final scores.

RankCubsDodgersOccurences
11264648
22354206
30150572
40241272
51339449
60339204
73434173
81433034
90432654
102128816
112426698
120526359
131524819
143224157
151021366
162520924
170619742
181618720
194518410
203116837
214315119
223514981
232014597
242614546
250713941
261713610
274212686
282710572
293610559
30419799
31309611
32089588
33189262
34568678
35548100
36537527
37287201
38466998
39376994
40526980
41096358
42196229
43405988
44515445
45294832
46474831
47384693
480104056
49633981
501103919

Note: One million games simulated.

Cubs vs Dodgers - Simulation Results 8/26




Notes:
- One Million games simulated
- Vegas win expectancy is 70.1%

Thursday, August 22, 2013

Red Sox vs Dodgers - Weekend Series Simulation Results


Series Results...

DayAwayHomeAway StarterHome StarterFavoriteAway RSHome RSWin ProbabilityTotal RS
FridayRed SoxDodgersJohn LackeyRicky NolascoDodgers3.6483.77754.1307.425
SaturdayRed SoxDodgersJon LesterHyun-Jin RyuDodgers3.2103.85959.8617.069
SundayRed SoxDodgersJake PeavyChris CapuanoDodgers3.5163.81856.3657.334

Simulation Boxscore for Friday's game


Note: One million games simulated.


Saturday, August 17, 2013

Dodgers vs Phillies - Simulation Results 8/18



Note: Vegas gives the Dodgers a 51.8% chance of winning this game.

Thursday, August 15, 2013

Dodgers vs Phillies - Simulation Results 8/16




Note: 1 Million games simulated
Vegas Odds: Dodgers win expectancy 52.0%

Tuesday, August 13, 2013

Mets vs Dodgers - Most Likely Final Scores


Top 50 Most Likely Final Scores

RankMetsDodgersOccurrences RankMetsDodgersOccurrences
11274616 265011636
20164231 275311074
32357117 280511031
42146377 293510966
51041118 30549651
60236331 31618315
73234618 32168242
83433740 33627873
92033030 34267671
103131089 35607591
111330919 36567535
120325181 37067229
133024867 38366676
141421508 39636558
152421065 40715341
164220424 41645199
174119970 42465064
184319429 43175027
194517299 44704966
204016745 45724724
210416575 46274590
222513614 47654367
231513138 48074316
245113033 49733946
255212846 50373763

Pitching Matchup: Matt Harvey vs Hyun-Jin Ryu
Games Simulated: 1 Million

Monday, August 05, 2013

The Dodgers Amazing Road To Riches


On August 5th the Dodgers won their 15th consecutive road game, a streak that dates back to July 7th when the Dodgers won in San Francisco by the score of 4-1. Let's say you had a $100 bill burning a hole in your pocket back on July 7th and had bet that $100 on the Dodgers to win that game, then decided to let your winnings ride for every Dodgers road game. Well, if you had done so, you would be sitting on a tidy little pile of winnings. In fact, you would have just under three million dollars sitting in your account. $2,925,662.12 to be exact. If you had made this sequence of bets would you let it ride on Clayton Kershaw and win number 16 in a row? A winning bet would put your winnings at $4.9M.

Game #DateAwayHomeAway PitcherHome PitcherFaveFave OddsDog OddsScoreBet AmountPayoffBet Winnings
17/7/2013LANSFKershawGaudinLAN-1691624-1100.000.59259.17
27/8/2013LANARIGreinkeDelgadoARI-103-1026-1159.170.980156.05
37/9/2013LANARINolascoKennedyARI-1071026-1315.221.020321.53
47/10/2013LANARIRyuSkaggsARI-104-1017-5636.750.990630.44
57/19/2013LANWASNolascoStrasburgWAS-1581533-21267.191.5301938.81
67/20/2013LANWASGreinkeGonzalezWAS-1251203-13206.001.2003847.20
77/21/2013LANWASKershawZimmermannLAN-1101059-27053.200.9096412.00
87/22/2013LANTORRyuJohnsonTOR-10810314-513465.191.03013869.15
97/23/2013LANTORCapuanoRedmondTOR-103-10210-927334.350.98026798.38
107/24/2013LANTORNolascoRogersTOR-1071028-354132.721.02055215.38
118/1/2013LANCHNNolascoRusinLAN-1451356-4109348.100.69075412.48
128/2/2013LANCHNRyuWoodLAN-1351256-2184760.580.741136859.69
138/3/2013LANCHNCapuanoSamardzijaCHN-106-1043-0321620.270.962309250.26
148/4/2013LANCHNFifeVillanuevaLAN-1121021-0630870.540.893563277.27
158/5/2013LANSTLGreinkeWainwrightSTL-1501453-21194147.811.4501731514.32
Total         2925662.12 

Sunday, August 04, 2013

Dodgers vs Cardinals - Simulation Results 8/5



TOP 50 MOST LIKELY FINAL SCORES


RankDodgersCardinalsOccurrences RankDodgersCardinalsOccurrences
11249333 261613256
22348668 272612369
33435931 283012307
42134204 295612292
53232016 305211932
60130782 310610877
71330710 323610267
80225196 33519674
92424710 34179552
101423598 35278869
114323422 36408831
120322981 37468796
133122731 38648099
144522269 39638085
151021856 40657839
164219962 41077783
170419330 42627629
181518491 43377200
192018053 44616503
202517315 45186489
213515851 46676290
220514637 47286284
234114427 48506252
245414230 49475579
255313556 50085561



Dodgers vs Cubs - Simulation Results 8/4



TOP 50 MOST LIKELY FINAL SCORES
RankDodgersCubsOccurrences RankDodgersCubsOccurrences
12335141 264611841
23433108 271511562
31227525 283611392
43227451 290211094
54325864 302010744
64525782 312610708
74221824 326710646
82121567 330310641
95419984 346110524
102419911 353010387
115318838 367310025
123118809 37749831
131318690 38109764
145617545 39729594
155217513 40409012
163516585 41758738
174116235 42048696
181415133 43168621
192515050 44768118
206314177 45717920
216413681 46377781
226513055 47507592
235113023 48277579
246212803 49477360
250112417 50577202

Note: One million games simulated.

Saturday, August 03, 2013

Dodgers vs Cubs - Simulation Results 8/3



TOP 50 MOST LIKELY FINAL SCORES

RankDodgersCubsOccurrences RankDodgersCubsOccurrences
12339889 263013320
21233799 270313102
33433152 281512921
43231913 296412635
52128309 306212389
64326850 316511546
74523260 326110742
84223114 330410733
93122406 344010672
101321746 353610602
112421239 362610584
125418840 37469934
135318506 38739153
144118323 39729089
155217832 40169029
161417486 41508794
170116582 42748450
183515691 43058165
192515211 44678099
202014844 45717705
215614568 46757422
221014532 47277167
230214325 48376989
245113965 49606739
256313445 50766670

Note: One million games simulated.