Congratulations to the Boston Red Sox on winning the 2007 World Series, and congratulations to my simulator for correctly picking (on February 13th) the Red Sox to be the champions.
What's next for the simulator? There will be some improvements made to the simulator and some study done on what statistics to use as input into the simulator as to best compete with the Las Vegas sports books. Las Vegas outperformed the simulator by 1.12% during the regular season. This is a very slim margin, but I hope to narrow that number to as close as zero as I can using sound methodology.
I will be making less frequent posts during the offseason, but will still be running some studies and posting them here when available.
And don't forget to pickup one of the professionally designed Dodger Sims T-Shirts available online.
Sunday, October 28, 2007
Saturday, October 27, 2007
Simulations for Sunday, October 28th
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Sim Favorite | Simulator Odds | Vegas Odds | Log5 | Winner |
| Red Sox vs Rockies | J.Lester vs A.Cook | Rockies | 56.81 | 42.55 | 56.82 | Red Sox |
| Vegas Baseball Odds | ||||||
| Simulator Setup File Download | ||||||
Thursday, October 25, 2007
Simulations for Saturday, October 27th
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Sim Favorite | Simulator Odds | Vegas Odds | Log5 | Winner |
| Red Sox vs Rockies | D.Matsuzaka vs J.Fogg | Rockies | 51.85 | 43.29 | 56.82 | Red Sox |
| Vegas Baseball Odds | ||||||
| Simulator Setup File Download | ||||||
| Method | Daily Points | Current Odds To Win W.S. |
| Xeifrank's Simulator | 48.15 | 80.43% |
| LV Hilton Odds | 56.71 | 89.23 |
| Log5 Method | 43.18 | 84.11 |
| LV Hilton leads by 1.12% | ||
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
Simulations for Thursday, October 25th
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Sim Favorite | Simulator Odds | Vegas Odds | Log5 | Winner |
| Rockies vs Red Sox | U.Jimenez vs C.Schilling | Rockies | 51.85 | 34.84% | 35.33 | Red Sox |
| Vegas Baseball Odds | ||||||
| Simulator Setup File Download | ||||||
| Method | Daily Points | Current Odds To Win W.S. |
| Xeifrank's Simulator | 48.15 | Red Sox 64.20% |
| LV Hilton Odds | 65.16 | Red Sox 78.45% |
| Log5 Method | 64.67 | Red Sox 73.24% |
| LV Hilton leads by 1.12% | ||
Sunday, October 21, 2007
Simulations for Wednesday, October 24th
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Sim Favorite | Simulator Odds | Vegas Odds | Log5 | Winner |
| Rockies vs Red Sox | J.Francis vs J.Beckett | Red Sox | 52.10 | 67.21 | 64.67 | Red Sox |
| Vegas Baseball Odds | ||||||
| Simulator Setup File Download | ||||||
| Method | Daily Points | Current Odds To Win W.S. |
| Xeifrank's Simulator | 52.10 | Rockies 51.00% |
| LV Hilton Odds | 67.21 | Red Sox 66.00% |
| Log5 Method | 64.67 | Red Sox 62.10% |
| LV Hilton leads by 1.12% | ||
Saturday, October 20, 2007
Simulations for Sunday, October 21st
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Sim Favorite | Simulator Odds | Vegas Odds | Log5 | Winner |
| Indians vs Red Sox | J.Westbrook vs D.Matsuzaka | Red Sox | 51.00 | 60.78 | 58.29 | Red Sox |
| Vegas Baseball Odds | ||||||
| Simulator Setup File Download | ||||||
| Method | Daily Points | |
| Xeifrank's Simulator | 51.00 | |
| LV Hilton Odds | 60.78 | |
| Log5 Method | 58.29 | |
| LV Hilton leads by 1.12% | ||
Thursday, October 18, 2007
Simulations for Saturday, October 20th
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Sim Favorite | Simulator Odds | Vegas Odds | Log5 | Winner |
| Indians vs Red Sox | F.Carmona vs C.Schilling | Indians | 50.77 | 44.44 | 41.71 | Red Sox |
| Vegas Baseball Odds | ||||||
| Simulator Setup File Download | ||||||
| Method | Daily Points | |
| Xeifrank's Simulator | 49.23 | |
| LV Hilton Odds | 55.56 | |
| Log5 Method | 58.29 | |
| LV Hilton leads by 1.12% | ||
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
Simulations for Thursday, October 18th
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Sim Favorite | Simulator Odds | Vegas Odds | Log5 | Winner |
| Red Sox vs Indians | J.Beckett vs C.Sabathia | Indians | 51.48 | 46.51 | 58.46 | Red Sox |
| Vegas Baseball Odds | ||||||
| Simulator Setup File Download | ||||||
| Method | Daily Points | |
| Xeifrank's Simulator | 48.52 | |
| LV Hilton Odds | 53.49 | |
| Log5 Method | 41.54 | |
| LV Hilton leads by 1.12% | ||
Monday, October 15, 2007
Simulations for Tuesday, October 16th
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Sim Favorite | Simulator Odds | Vegas Odds | Log5 | Winner |
| Red Sox vs Indians | T.Wakefield vs P.Byrd | Red Sox | 52.60 | 50.00 | 41.54 | Indians |
| Vegas Baseball Odds | ||||||
| Simulator Setup File Download | ||||||
| Method | Daily Points | |
| Xeifrank's Simulator | 47.40 | |
| LV Hilton Odds | 50.00 | |
| Log5 Method | 58.46 | |
| LV Hilton leads by 1.12% | ||
Sunday, October 14, 2007
Simulations for Monday, October 15th
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Sim Favorite | Simulator Odds | Vegas Odds | Winner |
| DBacks vs Rockies | M.Owings vs F.Morales | Rockies | 52.60 | 62.69 | Rockies |
| Red Sox vs Indians | D.Matsuzaka vs J.Westbrook | Red Sox | 50.76 | 53.49 | Indians |
| Vegas Baseball Odds | |||||
| Simulator Setup File Download | |||||
| Method | Daily Points | |
| Xeifrank's Simulator | 101.84 | |
| LV Hilton Odds | 109.20 | |
| LV Hilton leads by 1.12% | ||
Saturday, October 13, 2007
Simulations for Sunday, October 14th
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Sim Favorite | Simulator Odds | Vegas Odds | Winner |
| DBacks vs Rockies | L.Hernandez vs J.Fogg | Rockies | 58.40 | 59.18 | TBD |
| Vegas Baseball Odds | |||||
| Simulator Setup File Download | |||||
| Method | Daily Points | |
| Xeifrank's Simulator | 58.40 | |
| LV Hilton Odds | 59.18 | |
| LV Hilton leads by 1.12% | ||
Simulations for Saturday, October 13th
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Sim Favorite | Simulator Odds | Vegas Odds | Winner |
| Indians vs Red Sox | F.Carmona vs C.Schilling | Indians | 51.16 | 43.48 | Indians |
| Vegas Baseball Odds | |||||
| Simulator Setup File Download | |||||
| Method | Daily Points | |
| Xeifrank's Simulator | 51.16 | |
| LV Hilton Odds | 43.48 | |
| LV Hilton leads by 1.12% | ||
Wednesday, October 10, 2007
Simulations for Friday, October 12th
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Sim Favorite | Simulator Odds | Vegas Odds | Winner |
| Rockies vs DBacks | U.Jimenez vs D.Davis | Rockies | 57.50 | 48.78 | Rockies |
| Indians vs Red Sox | C.Sabathia vs J.Beckett | Red Sox | 52.45 | 59.51 | Red Sox |
| Vegas Baseball Odds | |||||
| Simulator Setup File Download | |||||
| Method | Daily Points | |
| Xeifrank's Simulator | 109.95 | |
| LV Hilton Odds | 108.29 | |
| LV Hilton leads by 1.12% | ||
Monday, October 08, 2007
Simulations for Thursday, October 11th
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Sim Favorite | Simulator Odds | Vegas Odds | Winner |
| Rockies vs DBacks | J.Francis vs B.Webb | DBacks | 52.08 | 55.56 | Rockies |
| Vegas Baseball Odds | |||||
| Simulator Setup File Download | |||||
| Method | Daily Points | |
| Xeifrank's Simulator | 47.92 | |
| LV Hilton Odds | 44.44 | |
| LV Hilton leads by 1.12% | ||
Simulations for Monday, October 8th
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Sim Favorite | Simulator Odds | Vegas Odds | Winner |
| Indians vs Yankees | P.Byrd vs C.Wang | Yankees | 61.35 | TBD | Indians |
| Vegas Baseball Odds | |||||
| Simulator Setup File Download | |||||
| Method | Daily Points | Total Points |
| Xeifrank's Simulator | 0.00 | 9052.34 |
| LV Hilton Odds | 0.00 | 9157.33 |
| LV Hilton leads by 1.12% | ||
Thursday, October 04, 2007
Simulations for Sunday, October 7th
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Sim Favorite | Simulator Odds | Vegas Odds | Winner |
| Red Sox vs Angels | C.Schilling vs J.Weaver | Angels | 51.00 | TBD | Red Sox |
| Indians vs Yankees | J.Westbrook vs R.Clemens | Yankees | 57.70 | TBD | Yankees |
| Vegas Baseball Odds | |||||
| Simulator Setup File Download | |||||
| Method | Daily Points | Total Points |
| Xeifrank's Simulator | 0.00 | 9052.34 |
| LV Hilton Odds | 0.00 | 9157.33 |
| LV Hilton leads by 1.12% | ||
Simulations for Saturday, October 6th
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Sim Favorite | Simulator Odds | Vegas Odds | Winner |
| DBacks vs Cubs | L.Hernandez vs R.Hill | Cubs | 61.20 | TBD | DBacks |
| Phillies vs Rockies | J.Moyer vs U.Jimenez | Rockies | 61.35 | 60.00 | Rockies |
| Vegas Baseball Odds | |||||
| Simulator Setup File Download | |||||
| Method | Daily Points | Total Points |
| Xeifrank's Simulator | 0.00 | 9052.34 |
| LV Hilton Odds | 0.00 | 9157.33 |
| LV Hilton leads by 1.12% | ||
Simulations for Friday, October 5th
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Sim Favorite | Simulator Odds | Vegas Odds | Winner |
| Yankees vs Indians | A.Pettitte vs F.Carmona | Yankees | 53.45 | TBD | Indians |
| Angels vs Red Sox | K.Escobar vs D.Matsuzaka | Angels | 52.30 | 40.82 | Red Sox |
| Vegas Baseball Odds | |||||
| Simulator Setup File Download | |||||
| Method | Daily Points | Total Points |
| Xeifrank's Simulator | 0.00 | 9189.54 |
| LV Hilton Odds | 0.00 | 9292.59 |
| LV Hilton leads by 1.12% | ||
Wednesday, October 03, 2007
Simulations for Thursday, October 4th
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Sim Favorite | Simulator Odds | Vegas Odds | Winner |
| Rockies vs Phillies | F.Morales vs K.Kendrick | Phillies | 54.90 | 59.18 | Rockies |
| Yankees vs Indians | C.Wang vs C.Sabathia | Yankees | 53.50 | 50.00 | Indians |
| Cubs vs DBacks | T.Lilly vs D.Davis | Cubs | 54.40 | 55.56 | DBacks |
| Vegas Baseball Odds | |||||
| Simulator Setup File Download | |||||
| Method | Daily Points | Total Points |
| Xeifrank's Simulator | 137.20 | 9052.34 |
| LV Hilton Odds | 135.26 | 9157.33 |
| LV Hilton leads by 1.16% | ||
Tuesday, October 02, 2007
Simulations for Wednesday, October 3rd
| Teams Playing | Pitching Matchup | Sim Favorite | Simulator Odds | Vegas Odds | Winner |
| Rockies vs Phillies | J.Francis vs C.Hamels | Phillies | 50.45 | 58.33 | Rockies |
| Angels vs Red Sox | J.Lackey vs J.Beckett | Red Sox | 52.40 | 60.00 | Red Sox |
| Cubs vs DBacks | C.Zambrano vs B.Webb | DBacks | 52.80 | 56.33 | DBacks |
| Vegas Baseball Odds | |||||
| Simulator Setup File Download | |||||
| Method | Daily Points | Total Points |
| Xeifrank's Simulator | 154.75 | 8897.59 |
| LV Hilton Odds | 158.00 | 8999.33 |
| LV Hilton leads by 1.14% | ||