Dodger Pitching Comparables

Depth at starting pitching is a strength of the Dodgers team. There is alot of question as to who the Dodgers should use as a 5th starter, or even a 4th starter if Jason Schmidt is not healthy to start the season. I have put together a matrix listing the most similar Dodger starting pitchers. Keep in mind that I am no Bill James, and this may or may not be of any importance. The three variables I am using to find similarities between starting pitchers are K/9, HR/9 and (K-BB)/IP. I am not taking age or health into consideration, this is a pure statistical analysis, which uses 2008 ZIPS projections as it's input data. I have a utility that calculates the similarity scores for me and I choose these three categories based on what I felt was most important. I could have easily choosen different categories. I am throwing in NL Cy Young Award winner Jake Peavy just to get a fill as to which Dodger pitcher has the closest similarity score as the best National League pitcher. The formula used to compute the similarity scores was the square root of the deltas squared of the three categories summed together. Deltas are measured by the percent difference in each category.
Sqrt((xp1-xp2)^2 + (yp1-yp2)^2 + (zp1-zp2)^2)
Where x=K/9, y=HR/9, z=K-BB/IP, p1=Player1, p2=Player2, p3=Player3
See comments below...

Dodger Starting Pitcher Similarity Score Matrix
	Penny	Lowe	Billingsley	Schmidt	Loaiza	Guo	Houlton	Stults	Kuroda	Peavy
Penny	NA	.3403	.3804	.5192	.7853	.7809	1.1192	.8550	.4605	.9946
Lowe	.3403	NA	.3567	.6444	.3758	.8664	.6239	.4291	.2165	1.2509
Billingsley	.3804	.3567	NA	.2876	.4263	.4818	.6902	.5500	.2408	.8788
Schmidt	.5192	.6444	.2876	NA	.6841	.2102	.9839	.8967	.4509	.4811
Loaiza	.7853	.3758	.4263	.6841	NA	.7995	.2323	.1940	.2691	1.3179
Guo	.7809	.8664	.4818	.2102	.7995	NA	1.0784	1.0710	.6094	.4127
Houlton	1.1193	.6239	.6902	.9839	.2323	1.0784	NA	.1662	.5451	1.7185
Stults	.8550	.4291	.5500	.8967	.1940	1.0710	.1662	NA	.4434	1.6733
Kuroda	.4605	.2165	.2408	.4509	.2691	.6094	.5451	.4434	NA	.9795
Peavy	.9946	1.2509	.8788	.4811	1.3179	.4127	1.7185	1.6733	.9795	NA

You will notice that HongZhi Guo and Jason Schmidt have the closest similarity scores to 2007 Cy Young winner Jake Peavy and of the most likely top 5 starters, Esteban Loaiza and Derek Lowe are the least similar to Jake Peavy. While Loaiza has a very close similarity score to Houlton and Stults, Loaiza is much more similar than Houlton and Stults to the stronger Dodger pitchers. I may add more NL West starting pitchers at a later date and a possible rundown of Dodger hitter similarity scores. Below is a list of the top 10 similarity scores of Dodger starting pitchers.

Rank	Pitchers	Similarity Score
1	Houlton/Stults	.1662
2	Loaiza/Stults	.1940
3	Schmidt/Guo	.2102
4	Lowe/Kuroda	.2165
5	Loaiza/Houlton	.2323
6	Billingsley/Kuroda	.2408
7	Loaiza/Kuroda	.2691
8	Billingsley/Schmidt	.2876
9	Penny/Lowe	.3403
10	Lowe/Billingsley	.3567

2008 Player Projections

Matt Kemp
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	M.Kemp	.322	.365	.508	.873
CHONE	M.Kemp	.289	.337	.467	.804
ZIPS	M.Kemp	.303	.348	.483	.831
Marcel	M.Kemp	.311	.356	.490	.846
PECOTA	M.Kemp	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
Jeff Kent
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	J.Kent	.290	.368	.486	.854
CHONE	J.Kent	.273	.356	.452	.808
ZIPS	J.Kent	.268	.352	.444	.796
Marcel	J.Kent	.281	.362	.464	.826
PECOTA	J.Kent	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
Andre Ethier
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	A.Ethier	.304	.371	.477	.847
CHONE	A.Ethier	.279	.348	.436	.784
ZIPS	A.Ethier	.288	.357	.459	.816
Marcel	A.Ethier	.295	.361	.466	.827
PECOTA	A.Ethier	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
Russell Martin
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	R.Martin	.292	.379	.456	.835
CHONE	R.Martin	.282	.376	.438	.814
ZIPS	R.Martin	.280	.365	.432	.797
Marcel	R.Martin	.293	.371	.459	.830
PECOTA	R.Martin	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
Andy LaRoche
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	A.LaRoche	.275	.367	.458	.825
CHONE	A.LaRoche	.268	.356	.455	.811
ZIPS	A.LaRoche	.256	.343	.431	.774
Marcel	A.LaRoche	.265	.354	.413	.767
PECOTA	A.LaRoche	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
James Loney
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	J.Loney	.302	.359	.465	.823
CHONE	J.Loney	.284	.347	.431	.778
ZIPS	J.Loney	.296	.350	.470	.820
Marcel	J.Loney	.315	.372	.514	.886
PECOTA	J.Loney	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
Andruw Jones
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	A.Jones	.253	.343	.491	.834
CHONE	A.Jones	.249	.345	.491	.836
ZIPS	A.Jones	.249	.344	.503	.847
Marcel	A.Jones	.248	.337	.479	.816
PECOTA	A.Jones	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
Nomar Garciappara
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	N.Garciappara	.292	.347	.451	.798
CHONE	N.Garciappara	.282	.340	.423	.763
ZIPS	N.Garciappara	.268	.329	.384	.713
Marcel	N.Garciappara	.281	.336	.425	.761
PECOTA	N.Garciappara	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
Rafael Furcal
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	R.Furcal	.286	.352	.403	.755
CHONE	R.Furcal	.277	.348	.394	.742
ZIPS	R.Furcal	.276	.346	.387	.733
Marcel	R.Furcal	.281	.348	.407	.755
PECOTA	R.Furcal	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
Delwyn Young
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	D.Young	.258	.307	.429	.736
CHONE	D.Young	.258	.307	.429	.736
ZIPS	D.Young	.255	.295	.408	.703
Marcel	D.Young	.286	.350	.464	.815
PECOTA	D.Young	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
Tony Abreu
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	T.Abreu	.288	.332	.399	.731
CHONE	T.Abreu	.275	.321	.394	.715
ZIPS	T.Abreu	.267	.313	.362	.675
Marcel	T.Abreu	.280	.337	.433	.770
PECOTA	T.Abreu	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
Juan Pierre
System	Player	Ave	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bill James	J.Pierre	.298	.343	.361	.703
CHONE	J.Pierre	.288	.333	.363	.696
ZIPS	J.Pierre	.277	.318	.347	.665
Marcel	J.Pierre	.284	.329	.370	.699
PECOTA	J.Pierre	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD

Pitchers

Brad Penny
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	195	6.42	2.24	0.39	0.74	3.83	1.33
CHONE	195	6.18	1.97	0.34	0.83	4.11	1.38
ZIPS	200	6.39	2.33	0.41	0.72	3.82	1.33
Baseball HQ	203	6.10	1.96	0.33	0.9	3.90	1.36
Derek Lowe
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	212	5.69	1.96	0.34	0.81	3.78	1.31
CHONE	207	5.96	2.21	0.36	0.78	3.70	1.30
ZIPS	210	5.79	2.33	0.37	0.94	3.99	1.30
Baseball HQ	218	5.90	2.31	0.37	0.7	3.84	1.31
Chad Billingsley
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	185	8.66	2.09	0.50	0.88	3.79	1.35
CHONE	147	8.51	2.11	0.50	1.04	3.98	1.37
ZIPS	180	7.70	1.97	0.42	0.95	4.00	1.40
Baseball HQ	189	8.30	2.05	0.47	0.8	3.52	1.32
Jason Schmidt
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	145	8.63	2.48	0.57	0.81	3.41	1.25
CHONE	117	7.54	1.92	0.40	1.08	4.15	1.38
ZIPS	119	8.55	2.26	0.53	0.91	4.08	1.36
Baseball HQ	145	7.8	1.92	0.41	1.20	4.41	1.41
Esteban Loaiza
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	120	6.15	2.41	0.40	1.05	4.35	1.39
CHONE	126	5.93	1.93	0.32	1.14	4.57	1.40
ZIPS	127	6.38	1.48	0.37	1.28	4.89	1.43
Baseball HQ	174	4.80	1.48	0.17	1.20	4.91	1.51
Hiroki Kuroda
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
CHONE	181	6.81	2.80	0.49	1.04	3.78	1.23
ZIPS	180	5.70	3.08	0.43	1.05	3.92	1.24
Baseball HQ	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
HongZhi Guo
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
CHONE	66	9.00	2.28	0.56	0.95	4.09	1.38
ZIPS	78	9.23	2.42	0.60	1.04	4.38	1.37
Baseball HQ	73	10.90	2.51	0.73	0.60	4.32	1.35
D.J. Houlton
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	34	6.88	2.00	0.38	1.32	4.76	1.44
CHONE	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
ZIPS	138	6.37	1.83	0.32	1.50	5.15	1.46
Baseball HQ	44	5.50	1.35	0.16	1.40	5.32	1.84
Eric Stults
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	53	7.30	2.05	0.42	1.02	5.26	1.57
CHONE	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
ZIPS	147	6.31	1.81	0.31	1.29	5.14	1.50
Baseball HQ	29	6.20	1.54	0.24	0.60	4.34	1.52
Takashi Saito
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	68	9.00	3.78	0.74	0.93	3.31	1.13
CHONE	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
ZIPS	66	10.91	4.44	0.94	0.68	2.05	1.00
Baseball HQ	58	10.4	4.19	0.88	0.90	2.79	1.03
Jonathon Broxton
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	83	11.17	3.32	0.87	0.54	3.04	1.19
CHONE	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
ZIPS	96	10.7	3.97	0.90	0.75	2.91	1.14
Baseball HQ	58	10.9	3.89	0.90	0.60	2.64	1.12
Joe Beimel
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	66	5.05	1.37	0.15	0.68	4.09	1.45
CHONE	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
ZIPS	73	5.18	1.68	0.23	0.62	3.95	1.37
Baseball HQ	44	4.90	1.50	0.18	0.80	4.30	1.36
Eric Hull
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
CHONE	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
ZIPS	72	8.25	2.06	0.47	0.88	4.00	1.39
Baseball HQ	29	8.10	1.86	0.41	0.60	3.72	1.72
Rudy Seanez
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	78	9.69	2.33	0.62	1.04	4.15	1.41
CHONE	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
ZIPS	65	9.28	2.39	0.60	1.11	4.15	1.40
Baseball HQ	44	8.20	2.00	0.45	1.00	3.90	1.36
Scott Proctor
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	80	7.65	2.06	0.44	1.46	4.50	1.38
CHONE	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
ZIPS	93	8.13	2.15	0.48	1.55	4.65	1.40
Baseball HQ	58	6.80	1.69	0.31	1.40	4.34	1.48
Jonathon Meloan
System	IP	K/9	K/BB	K-BB/IP	HR/9	ERA	WHIP
Bill James	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
CHONE	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD	TBD
ZIPS	72	9.50	2.38	0.61	1.75	5.00	1.40
Baseball HQ	44	9.80	2.09	0.57	1.00	3.89	1.32

2007 Projection Accuracy Study

Simulation picks World Series Champion

Congratulations to the Boston Red Sox on winning the 2007 World Series, and congratulations to my simulator for correctly picking (on February 13th) the Red Sox to be the champions.

What's next for the simulator? There will be some improvements made to the simulator and some study done on what statistics to use as input into the simulator as to best compete with the Las Vegas sports books. Las Vegas outperformed the simulator by 1.12% during the regular season. This is a very slim margin, but I hope to narrow that number to as close as zero as I can using sound methodology.

I will be making less frequent posts during the offseason, but will still be running some studies and posting them here when available.

And don't forget to pickup one of the professionally designed Dodger Sims T-Shirts available online.

Simulations for Sunday, October 28th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Log5	Winner
Red Sox vs Rockies	J.Lester vs A.Cook	Rockies	56.81	42.55	56.82	Red Sox
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Simulations for Saturday, October 27th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Log5	Winner
Red Sox vs Rockies	D.Matsuzaka vs J.Fogg	Rockies	51.85	43.29	56.82	Red Sox
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Current Odds To Win W.S.
Xeifrank's Simulator	48.15	80.43%
LV Hilton Odds	56.71	89.23
Log5 Method	43.18	84.11
LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

Simulations for Thursday, October 25th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Log5	Winner
Rockies vs Red Sox	U.Jimenez vs C.Schilling	Rockies	51.85	34.84%	35.33	Red Sox
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Current Odds To Win W.S.
Xeifrank's Simulator	48.15	Red Sox 64.20%
LV Hilton Odds	65.16	Red Sox 78.45%
Log5 Method	64.67	Red Sox 73.24%
LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

Simulations for Wednesday, October 24th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Log5	Winner
Rockies vs Red Sox	J.Francis vs J.Beckett	Red Sox	52.10	67.21	64.67	Red Sox
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Current Odds To Win W.S.
Xeifrank's Simulator	52.10	Rockies 51.00%
LV Hilton Odds	67.21	Red Sox 66.00%
Log5 Method	64.67	Red Sox 62.10%
LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

Simulations for Sunday, October 21st

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Log5	Winner
Indians vs Red Sox	J.Westbrook vs D.Matsuzaka	Red Sox	51.00	60.78	58.29	Red Sox
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	51.00
LV Hilton Odds	60.78
Log5 Method	58.29
LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

Simulations for Saturday, October 20th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Log5	Winner
Indians vs Red Sox	F.Carmona vs C.Schilling	Indians	50.77	44.44	41.71	Red Sox
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	49.23
LV Hilton Odds	55.56
Log5 Method	58.29
LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

Simulations for Thursday, October 18th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Log5	Winner
Red Sox vs Indians	J.Beckett vs C.Sabathia	Indians	51.48	46.51	58.46	Red Sox
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	48.52
LV Hilton Odds	53.49
Log5 Method	41.54
LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

Simulations for Tuesday, October 16th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Log5	Winner
Red Sox vs Indians	T.Wakefield vs P.Byrd	Red Sox	52.60	50.00	41.54	Indians
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	47.40
LV Hilton Odds	50.00
Log5 Method	58.46
LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

Simulations for Monday, October 15th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
DBacks vs Rockies	M.Owings vs F.Morales	Rockies	52.60	62.69	Rockies
Red Sox vs Indians	D.Matsuzaka vs J.Westbrook	Red Sox	50.76	53.49	Indians
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	101.84
LV Hilton Odds	109.20
LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

Simulations for Sunday, October 14th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
DBacks vs Rockies	L.Hernandez vs J.Fogg	Rockies	58.40	59.18	TBD
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	58.40
LV Hilton Odds	59.18
LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

Simulations for Saturday, October 13th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Indians vs Red Sox	F.Carmona vs C.Schilling	Indians	51.16	43.48	Indians
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	51.16
LV Hilton Odds	43.48
LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

Simulations for Friday, October 12th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Rockies vs DBacks	U.Jimenez vs D.Davis	Rockies	57.50	48.78	Rockies
Indians vs Red Sox	C.Sabathia vs J.Beckett	Red Sox	52.45	59.51	Red Sox
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	109.95
LV Hilton Odds	108.29
LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

Simulations for Thursday, October 11th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Rockies vs DBacks	J.Francis vs B.Webb	DBacks	52.08	55.56	Rockies
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	47.92
LV Hilton Odds	44.44
LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

Simulations for Monday, October 8th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Indians vs Yankees	P.Byrd vs C.Wang	Yankees	61.35	TBD	Indians
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	0.00	9052.34
LV Hilton Odds	0.00	9157.33
LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

Simulations for Sunday, October 7th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Red Sox vs Angels	C.Schilling vs J.Weaver	Angels	51.00	TBD	Red Sox
Indians vs Yankees	J.Westbrook vs R.Clemens	Yankees	57.70	TBD	Yankees
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	0.00	9052.34
LV Hilton Odds	0.00	9157.33
LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

Simulations for Saturday, October 6th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
DBacks vs Cubs	L.Hernandez vs R.Hill	Cubs	61.20	TBD	DBacks
Phillies vs Rockies	J.Moyer vs U.Jimenez	Rockies	61.35	60.00	Rockies
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	0.00	9052.34
LV Hilton Odds	0.00	9157.33
LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

Simulations for Friday, October 5th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Yankees vs Indians	A.Pettitte vs F.Carmona	Yankees	53.45	TBD	Indians
Angels vs Red Sox	K.Escobar vs D.Matsuzaka	Angels	52.30	40.82	Red Sox
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	0.00	9189.54
LV Hilton Odds	0.00	9292.59
LV Hilton leads by 1.12%

Simulations for Thursday, October 4th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Rockies vs Phillies	F.Morales vs K.Kendrick	Phillies	54.90	59.18	Rockies
Yankees vs Indians	C.Wang vs C.Sabathia	Yankees	53.50	50.00	Indians
Cubs vs DBacks	T.Lilly vs D.Davis	Cubs	54.40	55.56	DBacks
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	137.20	9052.34
LV Hilton Odds	135.26	9157.33
LV Hilton leads by 1.16%

Simulations for Wednesday, October 3rd

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Rockies vs Phillies	J.Francis vs C.Hamels	Phillies	50.45	58.33	Rockies
Angels vs Red Sox	J.Lackey vs J.Beckett	Red Sox	52.40	60.00	Red Sox
Cubs vs DBacks	C.Zambrano vs B.Webb	DBacks	52.80	56.33	DBacks
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	154.75	8897.59
LV Hilton Odds	158.00	8999.33
LV Hilton leads by 1.14%

Simulations for Monday, October 1st

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Padres vs Rockies	J.Peavy vs J.Fogg	Rockies	50.65	42.55	Rockies
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	50.65	8846.94
LV Hilton Odds	42.55	8956.78
LV Hilton leads by 1.24%

2007 DodgerSims Awards

Award winners will be announced September 30th, following the last regular season game.

Award	Nominees
MVP	J.Loney
Cy Young	T.Saito
Best Fielder	J.Loney
Best Rookie	J.Loney
Most Improved	R.Martin
Team Leader	R.Martin
Biggest Surprise	M.Kemp
Biggest Disappointment	N.Garciappara
Biggest Jerk	J.Kent
Top Hitting Prospect	A.LaRoche
Top Pitching Prospect	C.Kershaw
Biggest Money Suck	J.Pierre
Worst In-Season Move	W.Betemit trade
Notes: All awards are based on subjectivity on my part.

Simulations for Sunday, September 30th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Giants vs Dodgers	B.Zito vs E.Stults	Dodgers	61.00	48.78	Giants
Padres vs Brewers	B.Tomko vs J.Suppan	Brewers	60.80	50.00	Brewers
DBacks vs Rockies	D.Davis vs U.Jimenez	Rockies	57.85	68.25	Rockies
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	157.65	8689.29
LV Hilton Odds	169.47	8787.31
LV Hilton leads by 1.13%

Simulations for Saturday, September 29th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Giants vs Dodgers	T.Blackley vs C.Billingsley	Dodgers	68.70	63.64	Dodgers
Padres vs Brewers	C.Young vs D.Bush	Padres	50.50	59.18	Brewers
DBacks vs Rockies	E.Gonzalez vs M.Redman	DBacks	50.30	40.82	Rockies
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	167.90	8521.39
LV Hilton Odds	181.94	8605.37
LV Hilton leads by 0.99%

Simulations for Friday, September 28th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Giants vs Dodgers	K.Correia vs D.Wells	Dodgers	59.85	52.38	TBD
Padres vs Brewers	G.Maddux vs C.Capuano	Brewers	53.30	54.55	Padres
DBacks vs Rockies	B.Webb vs J.Francis	Rockies	51.40	53.49	DBacks
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	0.00	8521.39
LV Hilton Odds	0.00	8605.37
LV Hilton leads by 0.99%

Simulations for Thursday, September 27th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Rockies vs Dodgers	F.Morales vs E.Loaiza	Dodgers	55.15	47.62	Rockies
Padres vs Brewers	J.Cassel vs Y.Gallardo	Brewers	64.70	62.26	Padres
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	80.15	8441.24
LV Hilton Odds	90.12	8515.25
LV Hilton leads by 0.84%

Simulations for Wednesday, September 26th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Rockies vs Dodgers	J.Fogg vs D.Lowe	Dodgers	58.25	56.71	Rockies
Padres vs Giants	J.Peavy vs P.Misch	Padres	58.80	66.10	Padres
DBacks vs Pirates	L.Hernandez vs M.Morris	Pirates	50.55	46.08	Pirates
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	151.10	8290.14
LV Hilton Odds	155.47	8359.78
LV Hilton leads by 0.84%

Simulations for Tuesday, September 25th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Rockies vs Dodgers	U.Jimenez vs B.Penny	Dodgers	60.40	59.18	Rockies
Padres vs Giants	B.Tomko vs M.Cain	Giants	53.05	42.55	Padres
DBacks vs Pirates	D.Davis vs I.Snell	Pirates	52.60	50.00	Pirates
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	139.15	8150.99
LV Hilton Odds	148.27	8211.51
LV Hilton leads by 0.74%

Simulations for Monday, September 24th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Padres vs Giants	C.Young vs B.Zito	Padres	57.80	55.95	Giants
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	42.20	8108.79
LV Hilton Odds	44.05	8167.46
LV Hilton leads by 0.72%

Simulations for Sunday, September 23rd

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Dodgers vs DBacks	C.Billingsley vs E.Gonzalez	Dodgers	53.15	52.38	Dodgers
Rockies vs Padres	J.Francis vs G.Maddux	Padres	52.85	55.56	Rockies
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	100.30	8008.49
LV Hilton Odds	96.82	8070.64
LV Hilton leads by 0.73%

Simulations for Saturday, September 22nd

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Dodgers vs DBacks	D.Wells vs B.Webb	DBacks	58.80	66.10	DBacks
Rockies vs Padres	M.Redman vs J.Cassel	Padres	59.40	57.45	Rockies
Reds vs Giants	B.Arroyo vs K.Correia	Giants	53.45	48.78	Giants
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	152.85	7855.64
LV Hilton Odds	157.43	7913.21
LV Hilton leads by 0.73%

Simulations for Friday, September 21st

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Dodgers vs DBacks	E.Loaiza vs L.Hernandez	Dodgers	51.60	45.45	DBacks
Rockies vs Padres	F.Morales vs J.Peavy	Padres	62.10	66.67	Rockies
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	86.30	7769.34
LV Hilton Odds	87.88	7825.33
LV Hilton leads by 0.76%

Simulations for Thursday, September 20th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Dodgers vs Rockies	D.Lowe vs U.Jimenez	Dodgers	50.07	46.51	Rockies
Reds vs Giants	H.Bailey vs M.Cain	Giants	54.05	60.78	Reds
Pirates vs Padres	M.Morris vs B.Tomko	Padres	56.90	60.78	Padres
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	152.78	7616.56
LV Hilton Odds	153.49	7671.84
LV Hilton leads by 0.90%

Simulations for Wednesday, September 19th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Dodgers vs Rockies	B.Penny vs J.Fogg	Dodgers	52.10	55.95	Rockies
Giants vs DBacks	B.Zito vs D.Davis	DBacks	55.00	56.52	DBacks
Pirates vs Padres	I.Snell vs C.Young	Padres	66.55	61.54	Padres
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	169.45	7447.11
LV Hilton Odds	162.11	7509.73
LV Hilton leads by 0.90%

Simulations for Tuesday, September 18th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Dodgers vs Rockies	C.Billingsley vs J.Francis	Rockies	50.30	53.70	Rockies
Dodgers vs Rockies	D.Wells vs M.Redman	Dodgers	52.50	52.83	Rockies
Giants vs DBacks	J.Sanchez vs M.Owings	DBacks	61.80	60.32	DBacks
Pirates vs Padres	T.Gorzelanny vs G.Maddux	Padres	61.25	57.45	Padres
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	220.85	7226.26
LV Hilton Odds	218.64	7291.09
LV Hilton leads by 0.90%

Simulations for Monday, September 17th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Giants vs DBacks	K. Correia vs B.Webb	DBacks	63.65	68.25	Giants
Pirates vs Padres	J. Van Benschoten vs J.Cassel	Padres	59.60	60.78	Padres
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	95.95	7226.26
LV Hilton Odds	92.53	7291.09
LV Hilton leads by 0.90%

Simulations for Sunday, September 16th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
DBacks vs Dodgers	E.Gonzalez vs E.Loaiza	Dodgers	57.05	57.44	Dodgers
Giants vs Padres	T.Lincecum vs J.Peavy	Padres	63.55	62.96	Padres
Marlins vs Rockies	S.Olsen vs F.Morales	Rockies	51.35	58.33	Rockies
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	171.95	7054.31
LV Hilton Odds	178.73	7112.36
LV Hilton leads by 0.82%

Simulations for Saturday, September 15th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
DBacks vs Dodgers	L.Hernandez vs D.Lowe	Dodgers	63.60	60.00	Dodgers
Giants vs Padres	M.Cain vs B.Tomko	Padres	53.25	50.00	Padres
Marlins vs Rockies	S.Mitre vs U.Jimenez	Rockies	52.50	60.78	Marlins
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	164.35	6889.96
LV Hilton Odds	149.22	6963.14

Simulations for Friday, September 14th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
DBacks vs Dodgers	D.Davis vs B.Penny	Dodgers	64.95	60.78	TBD
Giants vs Padres	B.Zito vs C.Young	Padres	61.75	60.78	Padres
Marlins vs Rockies	D.Willis vs J.Fogg	Rockies	53.35	56.90	Marlins
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	0.00	6889.96
LV Hilton Odds	0.00	6963.14

Simulations for Thursday, September 13th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Padres vs Dodgers	G.Maddux vs D.Wells	Dodgers	55.20	54.55	Dodgers
Rockies vs Phillies	J.Francis vs J.Durbin	Phillies	50.15	47.62	Phillies
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	105.35	6784.61
LV Hilton Odds	102.17	6860.97

Simulations for Wednesday, September 12th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Padres vs Dodgers	J.Germano vs C.Billingsley	Dodgers	62.65	57.45	Dodgers
DBacks vs Giants	B.Webb vs J.Sanchez	DBacks	55.90	59.51	DBacks
Rockies vs Phillies	D.Bautista vs K.Kendrick	Phillies	57.65	62.26	Rockies
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	160.90	6623.71
LV Hilton Odds	154.70	6706.27

Simulations for Tuesday, September 11th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Padres vs Dodgers	J.Peavy vs E.Loaiza	Dodgers	50.75	40.82	Padres
DBacks vs Giants	E.Gonzalez vs K.Correia	Giants	54.40	55.56	Giants
Rockies vs Phillies	F.Morales vs A.Eaton	Phillies	50.65	56.52	Rockies
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	153.00	6470.71
LV Hilton Odds	158.22	6548.05

Simulations for Monday, September 10th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
DBacks vs Giants	L.Hernandez vs T.Lincecum	Giants	56.55	56.90	DBacks
Rockies vs Phillies	U.Jimenez vs K.Lohse	Phillies	55.40	55.16	Phillies
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	98.85	6371.86
LV Hilton Odds	98.26	6449.79

Simulations for Sunday, September 9th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Dodgers vs Giants	B.Penny vs M.Cain	Dodgers	53.75	54.55	Giants
Padres vs Rockies	C.Young vs J.Fogg	Padres	55.15	52.83	Rockies
Cardinals vs DBacks	B.Thompson vs D.Davis	DBacks	53.00	56.90	DBacks
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	144.10	6227.76
LV Hilton Odds	149.52	6300.27

Simulations for Saturday, September 8th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Dodgers vs Giants	D.Wells vs B.Zito	Giants	52.10	54.55	Dodgers
Padres vs Rockies	G.Maddux vs J.Francis	Padres	50.15	44.44	Padres
Cardinals vs DBacks	B.Looper vs M.Owings	Cardinals	51.90	50.00	DBacks
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	146.15	6081.61
LV Hilton Odds	139.89	6160.38

Simulations for Friday, September 7th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Dodgers vs Giants	C.Billingsley vs J.Sanchez	Dodgers	56.75	57.08	Giants
Padres vs Rockies	J.Germano vs E.Dessens	Rockies	54.45	51.22	Rockies
Cardinals vs DBacks	A.Wainwright vs B.Webb	DBacks	54.90	60.00	DBacks
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	152.60	5929.01
LV Hilton Odds	154.14	6006.24

Simulations for Thursday, September 6th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Dodgers vs Cubs	D.Lowe vs J.Marquis	Cubs	52.15	52.38	Dodgers
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	47.85	5881.16
LV Hilton Odds	47.62	5958.62

Simulations for Wednesday, September 5th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Dodgers vs Cubs	E.Stults vs T.Lilly	Cubs	57.95	60.00	Cubs
Giants vs Rockies	K.Correia vs U.Jimenez	Rockies	58.60	60.78	Giants
Padres vs DBacks	J.Peavy vs L.Hernandez	Padres	60.40	60.94	DBacks
Vegas Baseball Odds
Simulator Setup File Download

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	138.95	5742.21
LV Hilton Odds	138.28	5820.34

Simulations for Tuesday, September 4th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Dodgers vs Cubs	B.Penny vs S.Trachsel	Dodgers	53.00	55.56	Dodgers
Giants vs Rockies	T.Lincecum vs F.Morales	Rockies	51.90	48.31	Rockies
Padres vs DBacks	C.Young vs D.Davis	Padres	54.30	55.16	DBacks
Vegas Baseball Odds

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	150.60	5591.61
LV Hilton Odds	148.71	5671.63

Simulations for Monday, September 3rd

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Dodgers vs Cubs	E.Loaiza vs C.Zambrano	Cubs	57.05	62.96	Dodgers
Giants vs Rockies	M.Cain vs J.Francis	Rockies	54.15	58.33	Rockies
Padres vs DBacks	G.Maddux vs M.Owings	DBacks	52.10	48.78	Padres
Vegas Baseball Odds

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	145.00	5446.61
LV Hilton Odds	146.59	5525.04

Simulations for Sunday, September 2nd

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Dodgers vs Padres	C.Billingsley vs J.Germano	Padres	50.65	50.00	Dodgers
Giants vs Nationals	B.Zito vs M.Chico	Nationals	51.70	46.51	Nationals
Rockies vs DBacks	J.Fogg vs B.Webb	DBacks	58.45	68.25	Rockies
Vegas Baseball Odds

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	142.60	5304.01
LV Hilton Odds	128.26	5396.78

Simulations for Saturday, September 1st

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Dodgers vs Padres	D.Lowe vs J.Peavy	Padres	60.00	60.00	Padres
Vegas Baseball Odds

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	60.00	5244.01
LV Hilton Odds	60.00	5336.78

Simulations for Friday, August 31st

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Rockies vs DBacks	U.Jimenez vs L.Hernandez	Rockies	51.50	47.62	Rockies
Giants vs Nationals	K.Correia vs T.Redding	Nationals	56.80	52.38	Giants
The Dodgers vs Padres game is off the books due to the lack of projection information on Padres starting pitcher Jack Cassel.
Vegas Baseball Odds

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	94.70	5338.71
LV Hilton Odds	95.24	5432.02

Simulations for Thursday, August 30th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
DBacks vs Padres	D.Davis vs C.Young	Padres	67.60	63.64	DBacks
Vegas Baseball Odds

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	32.40	5211.61
LV Hilton Odds	36.36	5300.42

Simulations for Wednesday, August 29th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Nationals vs Dodgers	S.Hill vs B.Penny	Dodgers	57.05	63.64	Dodgers
DBacks vs Padres	M.Owings vs G.Maddux	Padres	59.30	57.45	Padres
Rockies vs Giants	J.Francis vs N.Lowry	Rockies	50.02	50.00	Rockies
Vegas Baseball Odds

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	166.37	5045.24
LV Hilton Odds	171.09	5129.33

Simulations for Tuesday, August 28th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Nationals vs Dodgers	J.Bergman vs C.Billingsley	Dodgers	58.70	62.26	Dodgers
DBacks vs Padres	B.Webb vs J.Germano	DBacks	51.70	60.00	Padres
Rockies vs Giants	F.Morales vs M.Cain	Giants	54.65	58.85	Giants
Vegas Baseball Odds

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	161.65	4883.59
LV Hilton Odds	161.11	4968.22

Simulations for Monday, August 27th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Nationals vs Dodgers	M.Bacsik vs D.Lowe	Dodgers	64.80	68.25	Dodgers
DBacks vs Padres	L.Hernandez vs J.Peavy	Padres	66.70	69.23	Padres
Rockies vs Giants	J.Fogg vs B.Zito	Giants	51.85	58.85	Giants
Vegas Baseball Odds

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	183.35	4700.24
LV Hilton Odds	196.33	4771.89

Simulations for Sunday, August 26th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Dodgers vs Mets	D.Wells vs J.Maine	Mets	63.30	62.96	Dodgers
Padres vs Phillies	T.Stauffer vs K.Kendrick	Phillies	56.45	58.33	Phillies
Nationals vs Rockies	J.Hanrahan vs E.Dessens	Rockies	60.75	56.52	Rockies
Cubs vs DBacks	J.Marquis vs Y.Petit	DBacks	50.95	47.62	DBacks
Brewers vs Giants	D.Bush vs T.Lincecum	Brewers	51.20	41.67	Giants
Vegas Baseball Odds

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	253.65	4446.59
LV Hilton Odds	257.84	4514.05

Simulations for Saturday, August 25th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Dodgers vs Mets	E.Stults vs O.Hernandez	Mets	62.70	60.00	Mets
Padres vs Phillies	C.Hensley vs K.Lohse	Phillies	61.40	55.56	Padres
Nationals vs Rockies	T.Redding vs U.Jimenez	Rockies	54.05	57.45	Rockies
Brewers vs Giants	Y.Gallardo vs K.Correia	Brewers	55.25	55.56	Giants
Vegas Baseball Odds

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	201.10	4245.49
LV Hilton Odds	206.33	4307.72

Simulations for Friday, August 24th

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Dodgers vs Mets	B.Penny vs O.Perez	Mets	53.10	51.22	Mets
Padres vs Phillies	G.Maddux vs J.Moyer	Phillies	55.10	51.22	Padres
Nationals vs Rockies	S.Hill vs J.Francis	Rockies	50.30	59.18	Rockies
Cubs vs DBacks	S.Marshall vs M.Owings	DBacks	54.85	51.22	Cubs
Brewers vs Giants	C.Vargas vs N.Lowry	Giants	53.25	52.38	Giants
Vegas Baseball Odds

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	246.70	3998.79
LV Hilton Odds	260.34	4047.38

Simulations for Thursday, August 23rd

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Dodgers vs Phillies	C.Billingsley vs F.Castro	Phillies	50.70	47.62	Dodgers
Padres vs Mets	J.Germano T.Glavine	Mets	60.55	60.78	Padres
Pirates vs Rockies	P.Maholm vs F.Morales	Rockies	54.15	57.45	Pirates
Cubs vs Giants	C.Zambrano vs M.Cain	Giants	51.75	46.51	Giants
Vegas Baseball Odds

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	186.35	3812.44
LV Hilton Odds	180.66	3866.72

Simulations for Wednesday, August 22nd

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Dodgers vs Phillies	D.Lowe vs J.Durbin	Dodgers	53.70	48.78	Dodgers
Padres vs Mets	J.Peavy vs B.Lawrence	Padres	50.85	58.33	Padres
Pirates vs Rockies	T.Gorzelanny vs J.Fogg	Rockies	54.95	51.69	Pirates
Brewers vs DBacks	J.Suppan vs B.Webb	DBacks	52.85	66.10	DBacks
Cubs vs Giants	R.Hill vs B.Zito	Cubs	51.35	49.02	Giants
Vegas Baseball Odds

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	253.80	3558.64
LV Hilton Odds	270.54	3596.18

Simulations for Tuesday, August 21st

Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Dodgers vs Phillies	B.Tomko vs K.Kendrick	Phillies	56.70	58.33	Phillies
Padres vs Mets	C.Young vs J.Maine	Mets	54.20	51.22	Mets
Pirates vs Rockies	T.Armas vs E.Dessens	Rockies	64.50	56.14	Rockies
Brewers vs DBacks	D.Bush vs L.Hernandez	Brewers	56.00	46.51	Brewers
Cubs vs Giants	J.Marquis vs T.Lincecum	Giants	54.40	56.14	Cubs
Vegas Baseball Odds

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	277.00	3281.64
LV Hilton Odds	256.06	3340.12

Simulations for Monday, August 20th

Simulations for Monday, August 20th. Current prediction record is 218-176.
Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Pirates vs Rockies	M.Morris vs U.Jimenez	Rockies	60.10	59.68	Pirates
Brewers vs DBacks	Y.Gallardo vs D.Davis	Brewers	52.85	46.08	Brewers
Giants vs Marlins	R.Ortiz vs S.Mitre	Marlins	62.65	60.00	Giants
Vegas Baseball Odds

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	130.10	3151.54
LV Hilton Odds	126.40	3213.72

Simulations for Sunday, August 19th

Simulations for Sunday, August 19th. Current prediction record is 216-176.
Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Rockies vs Dodgers	J.Francis vs B.Penny	Dodgers	58.40	55.56	Dodgers
Astros vs Padres	M.Albers vs G.Maddux	Padres	62.70	60.78	Padres
Vegas Baseball Odds

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	121.10	3030.44
LV Hilton Odds	116.34	3097.38

Simulations for Saturday, August 18th

Simulations for Saturday, August 18th. Current prediction record is 216-172.
Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Rockies vs Dodgers	F.Morales vs C.Billingsley	Dodgers	57.45	60.78	Rockies
Astros vs Padres	R.Oswalt vs J.Germano	Padres	53.90	45.05	Astros
DBacks vs Braves	M.Owings vs B.Carlyle	Braves	59.75	57.08	DBacks
Giants vs Marlins	M.Cain vs R.VanderHulk	Marlins	52.15	46.51	Giants
Vegas Baseball Odds

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	176.75	2853.69
LV Hilton Odds	190.58	2906.80

Simulations for Friday, August 17th

Simulations for Friday, August 17th. Current prediction record is 215-169.
Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Rockies vs Dodgers	J.Fogg vs E.Stults	Dodgers	51.35	52.38	Dodgers
Astros vs Padres	W.Williams vs J.Peavy	Padres	63.50	68.25	Astros
DBacks vs Braves	B.Webb vs L.Cormier	Braves	52.75	40.82	DBacks
Giants vs Marlins	B.Zito vs S.Olsen	Marlins	58.05	55.56	Giants
Vegas Baseball Odds

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	177.05	2676.64
LV Hilton Odds	187.75	2719.05

Simulations for Thursday, August 16th

Simulations for Thursday, August 16th. Current prediction record is 214-167.
Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Astros vs Dodgers	W.Rodriguez vs D.Lowe	Dodgers	59.65	60.78	Dodgers
Rockies vs Padres	E.Dessens vs C.Hensley	Rockies	53.70	42.74	Padres
Giants vs Braves	T.Lincecum vs C.James	Braves	57.65	58.68	Giants
Note: The Arizona/Marlins game is not being simulated due to the lack of projection data available on Marlins pitcher Daniel Barone.
Vegas Baseball Odds

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	148.30	2528.34
LV Hilton Odds	159.36	2559.69

Simulations for Wednesday, August 15th

Simulations for Wednesday, August 15th. Current prediction record is 212-165.
Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Astros vs Dodgers	J.Jennings vs B.Penny	Dodgers	66.20	63.64	Dodgers
Rockies vs Padres	U.Jimenez vs C.Young	Padres	59.00	65.40	Rockies
Giants vs Braves	R.Ortiz vs T.Hudson	Braves	68.80	70.15	Braves
DBacks vs Marlins	D.Davis vs S.Mitre	Marlins	58.40	54.55	DBacks
Vegas Baseball Odds

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	217.16	2311.18
LV Hilton Odds	213.84	2345.85

Simulations for Tuesday, August 14th

Simulations for Tuesday, August 14th. Current prediction record is 210-163.
Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Astros vs Dodgers	M.Albers vs B.Tomko	Dodgers	59.60	57.45	Astros
Rockies vs Padres	J.Francis vs G.Maddux	Rockies	52.55	50.00	Padres
Giants vs Braves	S.Atchison vs J.Smoltz	Braves	65.25	70.15	Braves
DBacks vs Marlins	B.Kim vs D.Willis	Marlins	51.00	55.16	Marlins
Vegas Baseball Odds

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	204.10	2107.08
LV Hilton Odds	217.86	2127.99

Simulations for Monday, August 13th

Simulations for Monday, August 13th. Current prediction record is 209-161.
Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Astros vs Dodgers	R.Oswalt vs C.Billingsley	Dodgers	60.40	52.38	Astros
Giants vs Pirates, G1	M.Cain vs P.Maholm	Pirates	52.50	48.31	Pirates
Giants vs Pirates, G2	N.Lowry vs S.Youman	Pirates	50.60	49.26	Giants
Vegas Baseball Odds

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	141.50	1965.58
LV Hilton Odds	146.67	1981.32

Simulations for Sunday, August 12th

Simulations for Sunday, August 12th. Current prediction record is 207-159.
Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Dodgers vs Cardinals	M.Hendrickson vs A.Reyes	Cardinals	58.70	54.55	Cardinals
Padres vs Reds	J.Peavy vs B.Arroyo	Reds	50.02	41.49	Padres
Nationals vs DBacks	M.Bacsik vs M.Owings	DBacks	55.10	59.51	Nationals
Pirates vs Giants	T.Gorzelanny vs B.Zito	Pirates	54.00	47.23	Pirates
Notes: Cubs/Rockies game is not being simulated due to the lack of information about Rockies pitcher Tim Harikkala.
Vegas Baseball Odds

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	207.58	1758.00
LV Hilton Odds	200.78	1780.54

Simulations for Saturday, August 11th

Simulations for Saturday, August 11th. Current prediction record is 204-157.
Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Dodgers vs Cardinals	D.Lowe vs B.Looper	Cardinals	51.25	48.78	Cardinals
Padres vs Reds	J.Germano vs B.Livingston	Padres	50.05	50.50	Reds
Nationals vs DBacks	J.Lannan vs B.Webb	DBacks	60.35	69.23	DBacks
Cubs vs Rockies	R.Hill vs J.Fogg	Rockies	56.25	49.02	Rockies
Pirates vs Giants	T.Armas vs T.Lincecum	Giants	60.70	66.10	Pirates
Vegas Baseball Odds

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	257.10	1500.90
LV Hilton Odds	250.43	1530.11

Simulations for Friday, August 10th

Simulations for Friday, August 10th. Current prediction record is 201-155.
Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Dodgers vs Cardinals	B.Penny vs A.Wainright	Dodgers	52.10	53.49	Dodgers
Padres vs Reds	W.Ledezma vs M.Belisle	Reds	48.45	51.46	Padres
Nationals vs DBacks	M.Chico vs L.Hernandez	DBacks	57.20	59.51	DBacks
Cubs vs Rockies	J.Marquis vs A.Cook	Rockies	62.60	57.45	Cubs
Pirates vs Giants	M.Morris vs R.Ortiz	Giants	51.90	51.69	Pirates
Vegas Baseball Odds

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	236.35	1264.55
LV Hilton Odds	252.40	1277.71

Simulations for Thursday, August 9th

Simulations for Thursday, August 9th. Current prediction record is 200-152.
Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Dodgers vs Reds	B.Tomko vs P.Dumatrait	Reds	51.70	47.62	Dodgers
Padres vs Cardinals	C.Young vs J.Pineiro	Padres	59.25	58.68	Cardinals
Pirates vs DBacks	I.Snell vs D.Davis	DBacks	51.85	57.08	DBacks
Cubs vs Rockies	T.Lilly vs U.Jimenez	Rockies	57.95	48.78	Cubs
Vegas Baseball Odds

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	182.95	1081.60
LV Hilton Odds	202.00	1075.71

Simulations for Wednesday, August 8th

Simulations for Wednesday, August 8th. Current prediction record is 197-150.
Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Dodgers vs Reds	C.Billingsley vs A.Harang	Reds	55.45	53.05	Reds
Padres vs Cardinals	G.Maddux vs K.Wells	Padres	51.20	51.22	Cardinals
Nationals vs Giants	T.Redding vs M.Cain	Giants	52.50	60.00	Giants
Pirates vs DBacks	P.Maholm vs B.Kim	DBacks	54.90	57.45	DBacks
Brewers vs Rockies	Y.Gallardo vs J.Francis	Brewers	53.45	46.95	Rockies
Vegas Baseball Odds

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	258.20	823.40
LV Hilton Odds	272.33	803.38

Simulations for Tuesday, August 7th

Simulations for Tuesday, August 7th. Current prediction record is 194-148.
Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Dodgers vs Reds	M.Hendrickson vs A.Harang	Reds	51.35	50.74	Reds
Padres vs Cardinals	J.Peavy vs A.Reyes	Padres	55.30	60.00	Padres
Nationals vs Giants	M.Bacsik vs B.Zito	Giants	51.60	58.33	Nationals
Pirates vs DBacks	P.Maholm vs M.Owings	DBacks	53.75	56.90	Pirates
Brewers vs Rockies	C.Capuano vs J.Hirsh	Rockies	52.45	52.38	Rockies
Vegas Baseball Odds

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	253.75	569.65
LV Hilton Odds	247.89	555.49

Simulations for Monday, August 6th

Simulations for Monday, August 6th. Current prediction record is 192-148.
Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
Padres vs Cardinals	D.Wells vs B.Looper	Cardinals	55.70	54.55	Cardinals
Brewers vs Rockies	C.Vargas vs J.Fogg	Rockies	53.00	52.38	Rockies
Vegas Baseball Odds

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	108.70	460.95
LV Hilton Odds	106.93	448.56

Simulations for Sunday, August 5th

Simulations for Sunday, August 5th. Current prediction record is 190-147.
Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
DBacks vs Dodgers	B.Webb vs B.Penny	Dodgers	57.95	53.5	DBacks
Giants vs Padres	N.Lowry vs J.Germano	Padres	62.65	51.20	Padres
Rockies vs Braves	A.Cook vs C.James	Braves	51.40	55.56	Braves
Vegas Baseball Odds

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	156.10	304.85
LV Hilton Odds	153.26	295.30

Simulations for Saturday, August 4th

Simulations for Saturday, August 4th. Current prediction record is 189-145.
Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
DBacks vs Dodgers	L.Hernandez vs D.Lowe	Dodgers	62.4	60.8	DBacks
Giants vs Padres	P.Misch vs C.Hensley	Padres	56.50	57.10	Padres
Rockies vs Braves	U.Jimenez vs T.Hudson	Braves	62.90	64.30	Braves
Vegas Baseball Odds

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	157.00	147.85
LV Hilton Odds	160.60	134.70

Converting Vegas Odds to an Expected Win Percentage

Now that I am comparing my simulation results to the Las Vegas-Hilton oddsmakers. I need to post the conversion algorithm to go from Vegas odds to an expected win percentage. You will often see a Vegas baseball favorite listed as -155. Well does that mean they are saying the team has a 55%, 60%, 65% etc..., chance of winning? The conversion formula is:

WinExp% = [ABS(Favorite + 5) / 100] / ([ABS(Favorite + 5) / 100] + 1)

The -155 we looked at in the example becomes...

WinExp% = [ABS(-155 + 5) / 100] / ([ABS(-155 + 5) / 100] + 1)

Simplified to...

WinExp% = 1.5 / (1.5 + 1)

Which gives us... 1.5 / 2.5 = 0.6 or a 60% chance of winning.

Note: This algorithm had to strip out the house edge that Vegas add to each line.

Feel free to use my handy Money Line to Win Percentage Calculator, via Google docs.

Simulations for Friday, August 3rd

Simulations for Friday, August 3rd. Current prediction record is 188-143.
Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Sim Favorite	Simulator Odds	Vegas Odds	Winner
DBacks vs Dodgers	D.Davis vs C.Billingsley	Dodgers	56.45	58.3	DBacks
Giants vs Padres	M.Cain vs G.Maddux	Padres	58.50	54.5	Padres
Rockies vs Braves	J.Francis vs J.Smoltz	Braves	54.20	61.5	Rockies
Vegas Baseball Odds

Method	Daily Points	Total Points
Xeifrank's Simulator	147.85	0
LV Hilton Odds	134.70	0

Simulations for Thursday, August 2nd

Simulations for Thursday, August 2nd. Current prediction record is 186-142.
Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Favored Team	Expected Chance of Winning	Outcome
Giants vs Dodgers	B.Zito vs B.Tomko	Dodgers	53.40	Giants
DBacks vs Padres	Y.Petit vs J.Peavy	Padres	61.50	Padres
Rockies vs Marlins	J.Hirsh vs R.VanderHulk	Rockies	60.75	Rockies
Vegas Baseball Odds

Simulations for Wednesday, August 1st

Simulations for Wednesday, August 1st. Current prediction record is 185-140.
Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Favored Team	Expected Chance of Winning	Outcome
Giants vs Dodgers	T.Lincecum vs M.Hendrickson	Dodgers	55.65	Dodgers
DBacks vs Padres	M.Owings vs D.Wells	Padres	53.35	DBacks
Rockies vs Marlins	J.Fogg vs B.Kim	Rockies	54.40	Marlins
Vegas Baseball Odds

Simulations for Tuesday, July 31st

Simulations for Tuesday, July 31st. Current prediction record is 184-138.
Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Favored Team	Expected Chance of Winning	Outcome
Giants vs Dodgers	N.Lowry vs B.Penny	Dodgers	60.35	Giants
DBacks vs Padres	B.Webb vs J.Germano	Padres	55.30	DBacks
Rockies vs Marlins	A.Cook vs S.Olsen	Rockies	59.60	Rockies
Vegas Baseball Odds

Simulations for Sunday, July 29th

Simulations for Sunday, July 29th. Current prediction record is 181-137.
Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Favored Team	Expected Chance of Winning	Outcome
Dodgers vs Rockies	C.Billingsley vs U.Jimenez	Dodgers	54.00	Rockies
Braves vs DBacks	T.Hudson vs L.Hernandez	Braves	58.80	Braves
Padres vs Astros	C.Young vs J.Jennings	Padres	60.35	Padres
Marlins vs Giants	S.Mitre vs M.Morris	Marlins	54.75	Marlins
Vegas Baseball Odds

Simulations for Saturday, July 28th

Simulations for Saturday, July 28th. Current prediction record is 179-135.
Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Favored Team	Expected Chance of Winning	Outcome
Dodgers vs Rockies	B.Tomko vs J.Francis	Rockies	59.20	Rockies
Braves vs DBacks	J.Smoltz vs D.Davis	Braves	56.50	DBacks
Padres vs Astros	G.Maddux vs R.Oswalt	Padres	54.15	Astros
Marlins vs Giants	D.Willis vs M.Cain	Giants	53.05	Giants
Vegas Baseball Odds

Simulations for Friday, July 27th

Simulations for Friday, July 27th. Current prediction record is 176-135.
Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Favored Team	Expected Chance of Winning	Outcome
Dodgers vs Rockies	B.Tomko vs J.Fogg	Rockies	56.60	Rained Out
Braves vs DBacks	J.Reyes vs Y.Petit	DBacks	53.25	DBacks
Padres vs Astros	J.Peavy vs W.Williams	Padres	60.40	Padres
Marlins vs Giants	R.Vanden Hurk vs B.Zito	Giants	53.55	Giants
Vegas Baseball Odds

Simulations for Thursday, July 26th

Simulations for Thursday, July 26th. Current prediction record is 173-134.
Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Favored Team	Expected Chance of Winning	Outcome
Dodgers vs Rockies	B.Penny vs R.Lopez	Dodgers	50.35	Dodgers
Braves vs Giants	B.Carlyle vs T.Lincecum	Braves	50.80	Giants
Padres vs Astros	D.Wells vs W.Rodriguez	Astros	53.10	Astros
Marlins vs DBacks	B.Kim vs M.Owings	DBacks	55.65	DBacks
Vegas Baseball Odds

Simulations for Wednesday, July 25th

Simulations for Wednesday, July 25th. Current prediction record is 170-133.
Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Favored Team	Expected Chance of Winning	Outcome
Dodgers vs Astros	D.Lowe vs M.Albers	Dodgers	58.95	Astros
Padres vs Rockies	J.Germano vs A.Cook	Rockies	55.60	Rockies
Marlins vs DBacks	S.Olsen vs B.Webb	DBacks	58.05	DBacks
Braves vs Giants	C.James vs N.Lowry	Giants	50.90	Giants
Vegas Baseball Odds

Simulations for Tuesday, July 24th

Simulations for Tuesday, July 24th. Current prediction record is 168-131.
Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Favored Team	Expected Chance of Winning	Outcome
Dodgers vs Astros	M.Hendrickson vs J.Jennings	Dodgers	51.40	Astros
Padres vs Rockies	C.Young vs U.Jimenez	Padres	54.85	Padres
Marlins vs DBacks	S.Mitre vs L.Hernandez	Marlins	53.15	DBacks
Braves vs Giants	T.Hudson vs M.Morris	Braves	55.95	Braves
Vegas Baseball Odds

Simulations for Monday, July 23rd

Simulations for Monday, July 23rd. Current prediction record is 164-131.
Teams Playing	Pitching Matchup	Favored Team	Expected Chance of Winning	Outcome
Dodgers vs Astros	C.Billingsley vs C.Sampson	Dodgers	52.90	Dodgers
Padres vs Rockies	G.Maddux vs J.Francis	Rockies	51.95	Rockies
Marlins vs DBacks	D.Willis vs D.Davis	DBacks	53.70	DBacks
Braves vs Giants	J.Smoltz vs M.Cain	Braves	51.35	Braves
Vegas Baseball Odds