Dodger Sims

Poker And Baseball

2012-01-24T07:38:00.000-08:00

When you think of the game of baseball, you think of 9 men on a field of play with a common goal. Major league players have dedicated their lives to this pursuit and, at least in most cases, are among the best athletes in the world. There is another game with similarities to baseball, and that is the game of poker. While you may not think that a card game is similar to America's national pastime, take a look at some of the reasons below.

First, contrary to the common sight of a poker player in many card rooms, poker players have to be in peak mental and even physical conditioning to handle the long hours at a poker table. Take a look at pokerlistings and other sites that report on players. Long gone are the days of out of shape players dominating the game. Now you have players that are not just focused in mine, but also take care of themselves physically. Of course, just like baseball, you do have a few players could use some extra work in the gym.

Also, just like baseball, you typically have nine men at the table all focused on a common goal. Granted that baseball is a team sport and the nine men are working together, but they all have a goal and that is to win. Poker players are no different in their goals, they are just going about it a bit differently as the game is an individual game with a few rare exceptions.

Poker also involves a great amount of strategy much like baseball. Each situation in poker is unique and requires that players be one their toes and alert as to the changing conditions. Poker players not only play the game, but at the same time act as their own manager. They scout out the players, watch for any weaknesses during the game, and then make moves and adjust their play to take advantage of the current situation.

It is obvious that poker will never overtake baseball as the national pastime, but the game is quickly rising to be a major hobby for many players. If you look at a list of online poker games and sites, you can see just how easy it is for a player to get involved. Also, once someone gets around 40, Jamie Moyer and Julio Franco being obvious exceptions, you can continue playing poker. So if you don't already play, check it out. You may just find your newest hobby.

Diamondbacks Get Worse

2012-01-17T22:46:00.001-08:00

Good news for Dodgers and most other NL West fans. The defending 2011 NL West Champion Arizona Diamondbacks have signed a bad pitcher. Joe Saunders signed a one year deal worth $6M. Saunders is barely a replacement level pitcher. His strikeout totals underwhelm. And by underwhelm, I mean they are really really bad. Over the past two years, Saunders has a K/9 of 4.81. Well, maybe he has a really low walk rate to partially make up for it. Hmmmm... his BB/9 over that same period of time is 2.84 which is hardly anything to write home about. Well, maybe he is incredibly talented at forcing hitters to hit the ball on the ground. A quick look shows a GB/FB of 1.23 over that same time period, also nothing special. Those are some pretty bad peripherals. Perhaps not Scott Kazmir bad, but when your top peripheral comparisons are the likes of Brad Bergesen, Mike Pelfrey and Livan Hernandez you are in pretty low territory. This looks like a panic move, the Diamondbacks would've been better off letting their herd of minor league aces fight for the last spot with a couple of low cost NRIs. Don't block them with Joe Saunders who doesn't miss too many starts. Here is the rest of the list (Top 25) of Joe Saunders comparables based on the K/9, BB/9 and GB/FB stats for starters over the 2010 and 2011 seasons.

Rank	Name	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB
	Joe Saunders	4.81	2.84	1.23
1	Brad Bergesen	4.56	2.79	1.2
2	Mike Pelfrey	4.95	3	1.4
3	Livan Hernandez	4.95	2.56	1.07
4	Dustin Moseley	4.74	3.05	1.51
5	Zach Duke	5.23	2.66	1.5
6	Rodrigo Lopez	5.13	2.5	0.97
7	Paul Maholm	5.15	2.9	1.72
8	Kyle Lohse	5.3	2.47	1.13
9	Bronson Arroyo	4.97	2.26	0.99
10	Jeremy Guthrie	5.34	2.48	0.99
11	Kyle Kendrick	4.42	2.24	1.17
12	Freddy Garcia	5.47	2.65	0.98
13	Brad Penny	4.13	2.69	1.58
14	Rick Porcello	4.91	2.19	1.65
15	Tim Wakefield	5.49	2.75	0.82
16	Joel Pineiro	4.69	2.17	1.71
17	Armando Galarraga	4.95	3.54	0.8
18	Fausto Carmona	5.26	2.98	1.92
19	Dave Bush	5.4	3.36	0.94
20	Mark Buehrle	4.5	2.04	1.23
21	Nick Blackburn	4.17	2.76	1.8
22	Tommy Hunter	4.69	1.98	1.01
23	Jeff Francis	4.95	1.96	1.38
24	Wade Davis	5.57	3.2	0.87
25	Ivan Nova	5.45	3.17	1.82

Pick Your Poison, A Sad Fan's Guide To The Dodgers Off-Season

2012-01-16T09:40:00.000-08:00

Many people have railed against the off-season signings Ned Colletti has made for the Dodgers. Colletti was quick to fill out most of his roster this off-season. And in doing so made a few questionable signings. None of the signings as a single entity really hurt the Dodgers chances, but in aggregate they have possibly kept the Dodgers from making the big splash they need to compete for a playoff chance in the next two years.

Instead of signing the likes of Mark Ellis, Juan Rivera, Aaron Harang, Chris Capuano, Adam Kennedy and Tony Gwynn Jr., the Dodgers could've used in house replacements making close to league minimum like Jerry Sands (LF), Justin Sellers (2B) and Nathan Eovaldi (P) plus probably few other replacement level players or NRIs. The savings many argued would allow the Dodgers to bid on such high profiled sluggers like 1B free agent Prince Fielder and maybe there'd be enough left over to sign Kuroda for a one year $13M deal (or along those lines).

Sure, the short-term money may come close to adding up - but all you are really doing is giving yourself a shot at making a bid for a player like Fielder. There is no gaurantee that you would win the bidding for him. And no gaurantee that he'd even want to come to play for the Dodgers. If he didn't there would be a mad scramble to put together the pieces of a team that would have some reasonable depth like the team currently assembled does. Depth is an important and often overlooked part of a team. The Dodgers as currently constructed have depth, perhaps not assembled in the most financially efficient way - but they have depth.

The Dodgers really have three possible big fish they can land. Two in-house and one in the free agent market. That being Matt Kemp, Clayton Kershaw and Prince Fielder. In my opinion there is NO WAY the Dodgers are signing all three to big long-term deals. And there is really no way you can plan for a Prince Fielder short-term deal. Thus if I had to take my choice of two out of three of these players signing long-term with us it has to be Kemp and Kershaw. Kemp has already signed and now Kershaw is headed to arbitration a few months after winning the 2011 Cy Young award. There is a possibility that the Dodgers and Kershaw will use this process to ink out a long-term contract with Kershaw buying out his remaining three years of arbitration and a few of his first free agency years.

Which scenario would you rather have?

Scenario A: Sellers starting 2B, Fielder signed to 8 year deal, Loney traded for scraps, Sands/Gwynn platoon in LF, Kuroda ($13M), Eovaldi 5th starter. With neither Kemp nor Kershaw signed to long term deals.

Scenario B: What has happened so far with Kershaw extended for 6 years at some fair but pretty high amount.

Yes, there are probably other scenarios but none much different than the two above in terms of landfall off-seasons for the Dodgers. And in the end I am not defending all of Colletti's moves, but there has been nothing done this off-season to harm the Dodgers long-term (2+ years) chances of competing. And lastly, one other thing to keep in mind is that the Dodgers are up for sale (finally!!!). McCourt wants to maximize the price he can get for the Dodgers. And in doing so he appears to be making an attempt to limit the risk of the Dodgers ability to compete in the win column in the long-term - thus all the short term non bargain contracts. In other words... be patient and cross your fingers that the new ownership puts people in place that more than half-way know what they are doing.

Aaron Harang, The Worst Of The Bunch

2011-12-20T20:39:00.000-08:00

Time to move on and look at the comparables for the last Dodgers starting pitcher. Keep in mind I am looking at 2010/2011 data using the K/9, BB/9 and GB/FB stats. These stats are used because they are important skill stats, only slightly effected by such things as defense and park factors. Below are Aaron Harang's closest comparable starting pitchers along with links to the other four Dodgers pitchers I've already looked at.

Clayton Kershaw | Chad Billingsley | Ted Lilly | Chris Capuano

Rank	Name	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB
	Aaron Harang	6.6	3.03	0.96
1	Wade LeBlanc	6.47	3.15	0.82
2	John Lackey	6.34	3.07	1.18
3	Ervin Santana	6.92	2.89	0.98
4	Phil Hughes	6.88	2.96	0.76
5	Jeff Niemann	6.79	2.86	1.21
6	Brett Cecil	6.2	2.92	1.03
7	Travis Wood	6.85	2.83	0.68
8	John Danks	6.97	2.72	1.18
9	Randy Wells	6.17	3	1.28
10	Kevin Millwood	6.17	2.68	0.96
11	Johnny Cueto	6.37	2.71	1.35
12	Ryan Vogelsong	6.99	3.14	1.34
13	Johan Santana	6.51	2.49	0.76
14	Carlos Carrasco	6.54	2.87	1.56
15	Javier Vazquez	7.24	2.97	0.74
16	Jason Hammel	6.05	2.99	1.36
17	Jeremy Hellickson	5.93	3.18	0.79
18	Chris Narveson	7.25	3.3	1.05
19	Alexi Ogando	6.68	2.32	0.92
20	Jair Jurrjens	5.9	2.88	1.06
21	Clay Buchholz	6.32	3.44	1.5
22	Barry Zito	6.46	3.74	0.84
23	Brett Myers	6.93	2.53	1.41
24	Jeremy Bonderman	5.88	3.18	1.14
25	Luke Hochevar	6.07	2.96	1.51
26	Matt Harrison	6	2.94	1.44
27	Clayton Richard	6.15	3.46	1.42
28	Bruce Chen	5.85	3.12	0.74
29	Matt Cain	7.2	2.51	0.91
30	Brian Matusz	7.23	3.47	0.74
31	Brian Duensing	6.06	2.57	1.34
32	Randy Wolf	5.8	3.22	0.94
33	Edwin Jackson	7.26	3.09	1.47
34	Kyle Davies	6.47	3.89	0.98
35	Gavin Floyd	7.15	2.44	1.36
36	Philip Humber	6.59	2.16	1.31
37	Kevin Correia	5.77	3.1	1.41
38	Mike Leake	6.06	2.48	1.52
39	Joe Blanton	6.97	2.15	1.22
40	Daniel Hudson	7.18	2.18	0.98
41	Wade Davis	5.57	3.2	0.87
42	Chris Volstad	5.79	2.88	1.62
43	Jason Vargas	5.65	2.58	0.8
44	Shaun Marcum	7.34	2.27	0.88
45	Bartolo Colon	7.18	2.18	1.24
46	Derek Holland	7.61	3.2	1.3
47	Chris Carpenter	7.05	2.25	1.59
48	Roy Oswalt	7.34	2.27	1.25
49	Homer Bailey	7.69	2.73	1.07
50	Hiroki Kuroda	7.23	2.19	1.41
51	Dillon Gee	6.04	3.95	1.36
52	Tim Wakefield	5.49	2.75	0.82
53	Jake Peavy	7.59	2.43	0.99
54	Tim Stauffer	6.04	2.56	1.89
55	Freddy Garcia	5.47	2.65	0.98
56	Matt Garza	7.77	2.8	1.04
57	Carlos Zambrano	7.1	4.11	1.13
58	Ricky Romero	7.28	3.35	1.9
59	Jordan Zimmermann	7.07	1.92	0.99
60	Jon Garland	5.81	3.79	1.5
61	Dave Bush	5.4	3.36	0.94
62	Jaime Garcia	7.24	2.87	2.03
63	Ted Lilly	7.55	2.21	0.64
64	Justin Masterson	6.72	3.21	2.25
65	Chad Billingsley	7.66	3.63	1.44
66	Trevor Cahill	5.9	3.23	2.07
67	Ricky Nolasco	7.3	1.91	1.22
68	Chris Capuano	7.88	2.61	1.05
69	A.J. Burnett	7.6	3.85	1.35
70	Ian Kennedy	7.92	2.7	0.91
71	Jonathon Niese	7.78	2.89	1.65
72	Jeremy Guthrie	5.34	2.48	0.99
73	Kyle Lohse	5.3	2.47	1.13
74	Zach Britton	5.66	3.62	1.86
75	Ivan Nova	5.45	3.17	1.82
76	Brett Anderson	6.26	2.16	2.09
77	James McDonald	7.8	3.9	0.86
78	Wandy Rodriguez	8.02	3.19	1.39
79	Dallas Braden	5.47	2.05	0.99
80	Tom Gorzelanny	7.91	3.77	0.89
81	C.J. Wilson	7.92	3.52	1.51
82	Jake Arrieta	5.94	4.38	1.14
83	R.A. Dickey	5.57	2.24	1.74
84	Zach Duke	5.23	2.66	1.5
85	Rodrigo Lopez	5.13	2.5	0.97
86	Kevin Slowey	6.48	1.51	0.56
87	Josh Beckett	8.17	2.72	1.09
88	Scott Baker	7.99	2.24	0.8
89	Colby Lewis	8.19	2.71	0.77
90	Paul Maholm	5.15	2.9	1.72
91	Fausto Carmona	5.26	2.98	1.92
92	Max Scherzer	8.25	2.9	1.02
93	CC Sabathia	8.09	2.56	1.51
94	Derek Lowe	6.45	3.1	2.61
95	Madison Bumgarner	7.9	2.05	1.3
96	Anibal Sanchez	8.26	3.08	1.21
97	Charlie Morton	6.05	3.69	2.43
98	Jhoulys Chacin	7.66	4.04	1.83
99	Mike Pelfrey	4.95	3	1.4
100	Livan Hernandez	4.95	2.56	1.07
101	Armando Galarraga	4.95	3.54	0.8
102	Tim Hudson	6.02	2.64	2.57
103	Brandon McCarthy	6.49	1.32	1.45
104	James Shields	8.21	2.29	1.18
105	Dan Haren	7.76	1.66	1.05
106	Daisuke Matsuzaka	7.53	4.55	0.69
107	Bronson Arroyo	4.97	2.26	0.99
108	Doug Fister	5.55	1.62	1.43
109	Joe Saunders	4.81	2.84	1.23
110	Jake Westbrook	5.41	3.29	2.35
111	David Price	8.44	2.96	1.16
112	Mitch Talbot	5	3.91	1.34
113	Jeff Karstens	5.19	1.82	1.22
114	Jorge de la Rosa	8.22	3.84	1.55
115	Jason Marquis	5.05	3.16	2.1
116	Tommy Hanson	8.52	2.76	0.99
117	Dustin Moseley	4.74	3.05	1.51
118	Gio Gonzalez	8.23	4.09	1.4
119	J.A. Happ	7.53	4.8	0.8
120	Rick Porcello	4.91	2.19	1.65
121	Jeff Francis	4.95	1.96	1.38
122	Felipe Paulino	8.37	3.97	1.13
123	Adam Wainwright	8.32	2.19	1.68
124	Jered Weaver	8.43	2.15	0.71
125	Felix Hernandez	8.45	2.55	1.72
126	Brad Bergesen	4.56	2.79	1.2
127	John Lannan	4.86	3.43	2.03
128	Scott Kazmir	5.52	4.81	0.88
129	Ryan Dempster	8.6	3.62	1.27
130	Tommy Hunter	4.69	1.98	1.01
131	Cole Hamels	8.62	2.24	1.37
132	Ubaldo Jimenez	8.65	3.73	1.41
133	Francisco Liriano	8.62	3.64	1.66
134	Joel Pineiro	4.69	2.17	1.71
135	Josh Tomlin	4.98	1.51	0.82
136	Mat Latos	8.88	2.66	1.07
137	Kyle Kendrick	4.42	2.24	1.17
138	Zack Greinke	8.78	2.3	1.37
139	Mark Buehrle	4.5	2.04	1.23
140	Justin Verlander	8.88	2.42	0.98
141	Bud Norris	8.85	3.89	1.06
142	Josh Johnson	8.93	2.51	1.39
143	Roy Halladay	8.16	1.21	1.7
144	Michael Pineda	9.11	2.89	0.81
145	Brad Penny	4.13	2.69	1.58
146	Nick Blackburn	4.17	2.76	1.8
147	Rich Harden	8.63	4.76	0.68
148	Aaron Cook	4.35	3.58	2.32
149	Cliff Lee	8.56	1.21	1.21
150	Carl Pavano	4.45	1.56	1.64
151	Jon Lester	9.17	3.56	1.65
152	Yovani Gallardo	9.34	3.07	1.29
153	Clayton Kershaw	9.46	2.78	1.04
154	Tim Lincecum	9.45	3.4	1.5
155	Edinson Volquez	8.98	5.25	1.75
156	Jonathan Sanchez	9.36	4.95	1.01
157	Brandon Beachy	10.57	3.04	0.77
158	Brandon Morrow	10.53	3.73	0.91

Chris Capuano, Better Than You Think

2011-12-19T17:00:00.000-08:00

It's time to look at one of the new additions to the Dodgers rotation and which pitchers around the majors have a similar skill set as him. Chris Capuano was signed as a free-agent after leaving the New York Mets. Capuano does have peripherals that compare to some pretty good pitchers like Ian Kennedy and Matt Garza. Capuano did put up much better stats at home than on the road but I am looking at three skill stats in which park factors do not play a big role in. Below are Capuano's closest comparables (using 2010 and 2011 stats, min of 150 IP).

Rank	Name	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB
	Chris Capuano	7.88	2.61	1.05
1	Ian Kennedy	7.92	2.7	0.91
2	Matt Garza	7.77	2.8	1.04
3	Homer Bailey	7.69	2.73	1.07
4	Josh Beckett	8.17	2.72	1.09
5	Jake Peavy	7.59	2.43	0.99
6	Colby Lewis	8.19	2.71	0.77
7	Scott Baker	7.99	2.24	0.8
8	Max Scherzer	8.25	2.9	1.02
9	James Shields	8.21	2.29	1.18
10	CC Sabathia	8.09	2.56	1.51
11	Madison Bumgarner	7.9	2.05	1.3
12	Anibal Sanchez	8.26	3.08	1.21
13	Tommy Hanson	8.52	2.76	0.99
14	Shaun Marcum	7.34	2.27	0.88
15	Ted Lilly	7.55	2.21	0.64
16	Roy Oswalt	7.34	2.27	1.25
17	David Price	8.44	2.96	1.16
18	Jonathon Niese	7.78	2.89	1.65
19	Wandy Rodriguez	8.02	3.19	1.39
20	Derek Holland	7.61	3.2	1.3
21	Matt Cain	7.2	2.51	0.91
22	Jered Weaver	8.43	2.15	0.71
23	Javier Vazquez	7.24	2.97	0.74
24	Gavin Floyd	7.15	2.44	1.36
25	Daniel Hudson	7.18	2.18	0.98
26	Bartolo Colon	7.18	2.18	1.24
27	Hiroki Kuroda	7.23	2.19	1.41
28	Adam Wainwright	8.32	2.19	1.68
29	Felix Hernandez	8.45	2.55	1.72
30	Cole Hamels	8.62	2.24	1.37
31	Edwin Jackson	7.26	3.09	1.47
32	Ricky Nolasco	7.3	1.91	1.22
33	John Danks	6.97	2.72	1.18
34	Chris Narveson	7.25	3.3	1.05
35	Dan Haren	7.76	1.66	1.05
36	Mat Latos	8.88	2.66	1.07
37	Ervin Santana	6.92	2.89	0.98
38	Zack Greinke	8.78	2.3	1.37
39	Brett Myers	6.93	2.53	1.41
40	Justin Verlander	8.88	2.42	0.98
41	C.J. Wilson	7.92	3.52	1.51
42	Joe Blanton	6.97	2.15	1.22
43	Chris Carpenter	7.05	2.25	1.59
44	Jordan Zimmermann	7.07	1.92	0.99
45	Ryan Vogelsong	6.99	3.14	1.34
46	Phil Hughes	6.88	2.96	0.76
47	Josh Johnson	8.93	2.51	1.39
48	Chad Billingsley	7.66	3.63	1.44
49	Travis Wood	6.85	2.83	0.68
50	Brian Matusz	7.23	3.47	0.74
51	Jeff Niemann	6.79	2.86	1.21
52	Tom Gorzelanny	7.91	3.77	0.89
53	Jaime Garcia	7.24	2.87	2.03
54	Alexi Ogando	6.68	2.32	0.92
55	Ryan Dempster	8.6	3.62	1.27
56	Ricky Romero	7.28	3.35	1.9
57	Michael Pineda	9.11	2.89	0.81
58	A.J. Burnett	7.6	3.85	1.35
59	James McDonald	7.8	3.9	0.86
60	Aaron Harang	6.6	3.03	0.96
61	Jorge de la Rosa	8.22	3.84	1.55
62	Philip Humber	6.59	2.16	1.31
63	Johan Santana	6.51	2.49	0.76
64	Ubaldo Jimenez	8.65	3.73	1.41
65	Francisco Liriano	8.62	3.64	1.66
66	Felipe Paulino	8.37	3.97	1.13
67	Carlos Carrasco	6.54	2.87	1.56
68	Wade LeBlanc	6.47	3.15	0.82
69	Johnny Cueto	6.37	2.71	1.35
70	Yovani Gallardo	9.34	3.07	1.29
71	Gio Gonzalez	8.23	4.09	1.4
72	Cliff Lee	8.56	1.21	1.21
73	Roy Halladay	8.16	1.21	1.7
74	Clayton Kershaw	9.46	2.78	1.04
75	Bud Norris	8.85	3.89	1.06
76	John Lackey	6.34	3.07	1.18
77	Jhoulys Chacin	7.66	4.04	1.83
78	Carlos Zambrano	7.1	4.11	1.13
79	Brett Cecil	6.2	2.92	1.03
80	Jon Lester	9.17	3.56	1.65
81	Kevin Millwood	6.17	2.68	0.96
82	Randy Wells	6.17	3	1.28
83	Justin Masterson	6.72	3.21	2.25
84	Tim Lincecum	9.45	3.4	1.5
85	Clay Buchholz	6.32	3.44	1.5
86	Barry Zito	6.46	3.74	0.84
87	Brian Duensing	6.06	2.57	1.34
88	Kevin Slowey	6.48	1.51	0.56
89	Mike Leake	6.06	2.48	1.52
90	Jason Hammel	6.05	2.99	1.36
91	Luke Hochevar	6.07	2.96	1.51
92	Kyle Davies	6.47	3.89	0.98
93	Brandon McCarthy	6.49	1.32	1.45
94	Matt Harrison	6	2.94	1.44
95	Clayton Richard	6.15	3.46	1.42
96	Brett Anderson	6.26	2.16	2.09
97	Jair Jurrjens	5.9	2.88	1.06
98	Daisuke Matsuzaka	7.53	4.55	0.69
99	Tim Stauffer	6.04	2.56	1.89
100	Jeremy Hellickson	5.93	3.18	0.79
101	Jeremy Bonderman	5.88	3.18	1.14
102	Bruce Chen	5.85	3.12	0.74
103	Randy Wolf	5.8	3.22	0.94
104	Derek Lowe	6.45	3.1	2.61
105	Chris Volstad	5.79	2.88	1.62
106	Kevin Correia	5.77	3.1	1.41
107	J.A. Happ	7.53	4.8	0.8
108	Jason Vargas	5.65	2.58	0.8
109	Dillon Gee	6.04	3.95	1.36
110	Rich Harden	8.63	4.76	0.68
111	Trevor Cahill	5.9	3.23	2.07
112	Wade Davis	5.57	3.2	0.87
113	Tim Hudson	6.02	2.64	2.57
114	Tim Wakefield	5.49	2.75	0.82
115	Freddy Garcia	5.47	2.65	0.98
116	Jon Garland	5.81	3.79	1.5
117	R.A. Dickey	5.57	2.24	1.74
118	Dallas Braden	5.47	2.05	0.99
119	Charlie Morton	6.05	3.69	2.43
120	Jeremy Guthrie	5.34	2.48	0.99
121	Doug Fister	5.55	1.62	1.43
122	Zach Britton	5.66	3.62	1.86
123	Kyle Lohse	5.3	2.47	1.13
124	Dave Bush	5.4	3.36	0.94
125	Ivan Nova	5.45	3.17	1.82
126	Jake Arrieta	5.94	4.38	1.14
127	Zach Duke	5.23	2.66	1.5
128	Brandon Beachy	10.57	3.04	0.77
129	Rodrigo Lopez	5.13	2.5	0.97
130	Jonathan Sanchez	9.36	4.95	1.01
131	Fausto Carmona	5.26	2.98	1.92
132	Jeff Karstens	5.19	1.82	1.22
133	Paul Maholm	5.15	2.9	1.72
134	Jake Westbrook	5.41	3.29	2.35
135	Brandon Morrow	10.53	3.73	0.91
136	Livan Hernandez	4.95	2.56	1.07
137	Bronson Arroyo	4.97	2.26	0.99
138	Edinson Volquez	8.98	5.25	1.75
139	Mike Pelfrey	4.95	3	1.4
140	Jeff Francis	4.95	1.96	1.38
141	Rick Porcello	4.91	2.19	1.65
142	Jason Marquis	5.05	3.16	2.1
143	Joe Saunders	4.81	2.84	1.23
144	Armando Galarraga	4.95	3.54	0.8
145	Josh Tomlin	4.98	1.51	0.82
146	Mitch Talbot	5	3.91	1.34
147	Dustin Moseley	4.74	3.05	1.51
148	Scott Kazmir	5.52	4.81	0.88
149	Tommy Hunter	4.69	1.98	1.01
150	John Lannan	4.86	3.43	2.03
151	Joel Pineiro	4.69	2.17	1.71
152	Brad Bergesen	4.56	2.79	1.2
153	Mark Buehrle	4.5	2.04	1.23
154	Kyle Kendrick	4.42	2.24	1.17
155	Carl Pavano	4.45	1.56	1.64
156	Nick Blackburn	4.17	2.76	1.8
157	Brad Penny	4.13	2.69	1.58
158	Aaron Cook	4.35	3.58	2.32

Nobody Wants To Be Ted Lilly

2011-12-18T19:11:00.001-08:00

Next up on the Dodgers starting pitcher similarity scores is Ted Lilly the left handed pitcher for the Dodgers that has a tendency to give up a lot of fly balls which in turn leads to a souvenir bonanza for those fans brave enough to sit in the outfield bleachers.

Rank	Name	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB
	Ted Lilly	7.55	2.21	0.64
1	Shaun Marcum	7.34	2.27	0.88
2	Jake Peavy	7.59	2.43	0.99
3	Scott Baker	7.99	2.24	0.8
4	Daniel Hudson	7.18	2.18	0.98
5	Matt Cain	7.2	2.51	0.91
6	Roy Oswalt	7.34	2.27	1.25
7	Jordan Zimmermann	7.07	1.92	0.99
8	Chris Capuano	7.88	2.61	1.05
9	Ian Kennedy	7.92	2.7	0.91
10	Homer Bailey	7.69	2.73	1.07
11	Ricky Nolasco	7.3	1.91	1.22
12	Bartolo Colon	7.18	2.18	1.24
13	Dan Haren	7.76	1.66	1.05
14	Matt Garza	7.77	2.8	1.04
15	Madison Bumgarner	7.9	2.05	1.3
16	Joe Blanton	6.97	2.15	1.22
17	Colby Lewis	8.19	2.71	0.77
18	Javier Vazquez	7.24	2.97	0.74
19	Hiroki Kuroda	7.23	2.19	1.41
20	Gavin Floyd	7.15	2.44	1.36
21	James Shields	8.21	2.29	1.18
22	Jered Weaver	8.43	2.15	0.71
23	Josh Beckett	8.17	2.72	1.09
24	Alexi Ogando	6.68	2.32	0.92
25	Travis Wood	6.85	2.83	0.68
26	John Danks	6.97	2.72	1.18
27	Ervin Santana	6.92	2.89	0.98
28	Phil Hughes	6.88	2.96	0.76
29	Brett Myers	6.93	2.53	1.41
30	Max Scherzer	8.25	2.9	1.02
31	Chris Carpenter	7.05	2.25	1.59
32	CC Sabathia	8.09	2.56	1.51
33	Johan Santana	6.51	2.49	0.76
34	Jeff Niemann	6.79	2.86	1.21
35	Tommy Hanson	8.52	2.76	0.99
36	Philip Humber	6.59	2.16	1.31
37	Derek Holland	7.61	3.2	1.3
38	Chris Narveson	7.25	3.3	1.05
39	Jonathon Niese	7.78	2.89	1.65
40	Edwin Jackson	7.26	3.09	1.47
41	Anibal Sanchez	8.26	3.08	1.21
42	David Price	8.44	2.96	1.16
43	Kevin Slowey	6.48	1.51	0.56
44	Ryan Vogelsong	6.99	3.14	1.34
45	Adam Wainwright	8.32	2.19	1.68
46	Aaron Harang	6.6	3.03	0.96
47	Cole Hamels	8.62	2.24	1.37
48	Brian Matusz	7.23	3.47	0.74
49	Wandy Rodriguez	8.02	3.19	1.39
50	Justin Verlander	8.88	2.42	0.98
51	Zack Greinke	8.78	2.3	1.37
52	Wade LeBlanc	6.47	3.15	0.82
53	Felix Hernandez	8.45	2.55	1.72
54	Johnny Cueto	6.37	2.71	1.35
55	Mat Latos	8.88	2.66	1.07
56	Kevin Millwood	6.17	2.68	0.96
57	Carlos Carrasco	6.54	2.87	1.56
58	Cliff Lee	8.56	1.21	1.21
59	Jaime Garcia	7.24	2.87	2.03
60	Brett Cecil	6.2	2.92	1.03
61	John Lackey	6.34	3.07	1.18
62	Roy Halladay	8.16	1.21	1.7
63	Josh Johnson	8.93	2.51	1.39
64	Brandon McCarthy	6.49	1.32	1.45
65	C.J. Wilson	7.92	3.52	1.51
66	Tom Gorzelanny	7.91	3.77	0.89
67	Chad Billingsley	7.66	3.63	1.44
68	Brian Duensing	6.06	2.57	1.34
69	Michael Pineda	9.11	2.89	0.81
70	Randy Wells	6.17	3	1.28
71	Ricky Romero	7.28	3.35	1.9
72	James McDonald	7.8	3.9	0.86
73	Mike Leake	6.06	2.48	1.52
74	A.J. Burnett	7.6	3.85	1.35
75	Jair Jurrjens	5.9	2.88	1.06
76	Jason Hammel	6.05	2.99	1.36
77	Ryan Dempster	8.6	3.62	1.27
78	Luke Hochevar	6.07	2.96	1.51
79	Barry Zito	6.46	3.74	0.84
80	Matt Harrison	6	2.94	1.44
81	Jeremy Hellickson	5.93	3.18	0.79
82	Bruce Chen	5.85	3.12	0.74
83	Clay Buchholz	6.32	3.44	1.5
84	Brett Anderson	6.26	2.16	2.09
85	Jason Vargas	5.65	2.58	0.8
86	Jorge de la Rosa	8.22	3.84	1.55
87	Tim Stauffer	6.04	2.56	1.89
88	Jeremy Bonderman	5.88	3.18	1.14
89	Felipe Paulino	8.37	3.97	1.13
90	Carlos Zambrano	7.1	4.11	1.13
91	Kyle Davies	6.47	3.89	0.98
92	Ubaldo Jimenez	8.65	3.73	1.41
93	Clayton Richard	6.15	3.46	1.42
94	Clayton Kershaw	9.46	2.78	1.04
95	Randy Wolf	5.8	3.22	0.94
96	Francisco Liriano	8.62	3.64	1.66
97	Justin Masterson	6.72	3.21	2.25
98	Yovani Gallardo	9.34	3.07	1.29
99	Dallas Braden	5.47	2.05	0.99
100	Chris Volstad	5.79	2.88	1.62
101	Kevin Correia	5.77	3.1	1.41
102	Tim Wakefield	5.49	2.75	0.82
103	Gio Gonzalez	8.23	4.09	1.4
104	Freddy Garcia	5.47	2.65	0.98
105	Bud Norris	8.85	3.89	1.06
106	Jhoulys Chacin	7.66	4.04	1.83
107	Wade Davis	5.57	3.2	0.87
108	Doug Fister	5.55	1.62	1.43
109	Jeremy Guthrie	5.34	2.48	0.99
110	R.A. Dickey	5.57	2.24	1.74
111	Kyle Lohse	5.3	2.47	1.13
112	Jon Lester	9.17	3.56	1.65
113	Daisuke Matsuzaka	7.53	4.55	0.69
114	Tim Lincecum	9.45	3.4	1.5
115	Trevor Cahill	5.9	3.23	2.07
116	Dillon Gee	6.04	3.95	1.36
117	Derek Lowe	6.45	3.1	2.61
118	Dave Bush	5.4	3.36	0.94
119	Rodrigo Lopez	5.13	2.5	0.97
120	Jeff Karstens	5.19	1.82	1.22
121	Tim Hudson	6.02	2.64	2.57
122	Jon Garland	5.81	3.79	1.5
123	Zach Duke	5.23	2.66	1.5
124	Ivan Nova	5.45	3.17	1.82
125	J.A. Happ	7.53	4.8	0.8
126	Bronson Arroyo	4.97	2.26	0.99
127	Zach Britton	5.66	3.62	1.86
128	Livan Hernandez	4.95	2.56	1.07
129	Josh Tomlin	4.98	1.51	0.82
130	Jeff Francis	4.95	1.96	1.38
131	Paul Maholm	5.15	2.9	1.72
132	Fausto Carmona	5.26	2.98	1.92
133	Jake Arrieta	5.94	4.38	1.14
134	Charlie Morton	6.05	3.69	2.43
135	Rich Harden	8.63	4.76	0.68
136	Mike Pelfrey	4.95	3	1.4
137	Rick Porcello	4.91	2.19	1.65
138	Joe Saunders	4.81	2.84	1.23
139	Tommy Hunter	4.69	1.98	1.01
140	Armando Galarraga	4.95	3.54	0.8
141	Jake Westbrook	5.41	3.29	2.35
142	Jason Marquis	5.05	3.16	2.1
143	Joel Pineiro	4.69	2.17	1.71
144	Dustin Moseley	4.74	3.05	1.51
145	Brad Bergesen	4.56	2.79	1.2
146	Mark Buehrle	4.5	2.04	1.23
147	Brandon Beachy	10.57	3.04	0.77
148	Mitch Talbot	5	3.91	1.34
149	Kyle Kendrick	4.42	2.24	1.17
150	John Lannan	4.86	3.43	2.03
151	Jonathan Sanchez	9.36	4.95	1.01
152	Scott Kazmir	5.52	4.81	0.88
153	Carl Pavano	4.45	1.56	1.64
154	Brandon Morrow	10.53	3.73	0.91
155	Edinson Volquez	8.98	5.25	1.75
156	Brad Penny	4.13	2.69	1.58
157	Nick Blackburn	4.17	2.76	1.8
158	Aaron Cook	4.35	3.58	2.32

Chad Billingsley, A Mixed Bag

2011-12-16T19:53:00.001-08:00

Using 2010 and 2011 data and looking at K/9, BB/9 and GB/FB numbers I computed similarity scores for any starting pitcher who has thrown 150 or more innings the past two years. Out of the 158 qualified pitchers here are the pitchers with the most similar numbers to Chad Billingsley. There are a mixed bag of pitchers who have a similar skill set as Billingsley. A.J. Burnett is not the best player to be comparable to in the world, yet C.J. Wilson isn't too bad. I will have lists for a few of the other Dodgers starting pitchers up in the next couple of days.

Rank	Name	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB
	Chad Billingsley	7.66	3.63	1.44
1	A.J. Burnett	7.6	3.85	1.35
2	C.J. Wilson	7.92	3.52	1.51
3	Derek Holland	7.61	3.2	1.3
4	Jhoulys Chacin	7.66	4.04	1.83
5	Wandy Rodriguez	8.02	3.19	1.39
6	Jorge de la Rosa	8.22	3.84	1.55
7	Tom Gorzelanny	7.91	3.77	0.89
8	James McDonald	7.8	3.9	0.86
9	Chris Narveson	7.25	3.3	1.05
10	Ricky Romero	7.28	3.35	1.9
11	Edwin Jackson	7.26	3.09	1.47
12	Gio Gonzalez	8.23	4.09	1.4
13	Jonathon Niese	7.78	2.89	1.65
14	Carlos Zambrano	7.1	4.11	1.13
15	Ryan Vogelsong	6.99	3.14	1.34
16	Brian Matusz	7.23	3.47	0.74
17	Anibal Sanchez	8.26	3.08	1.21
18	Felipe Paulino	8.37	3.97	1.13
19	Matt Garza	7.77	2.8	1.04
20	Ryan Dempster	8.6	3.62	1.27
21	Homer Bailey	7.69	2.73	1.07
22	Francisco Liriano	8.62	3.64	1.66
23	Ubaldo Jimenez	8.65	3.73	1.41
24	Max Scherzer	8.25	2.9	1.02
25	Javier Vazquez	7.24	2.97	0.74
26	Jaime Garcia	7.24	2.87	2.03
27	David Price	8.44	2.96	1.16
28	Josh Beckett	8.17	2.72	1.09
29	Ian Kennedy	7.92	2.7	0.91
30	Chris Capuano	7.88	2.61	1.05
31	Ervin Santana	6.92	2.89	0.98
32	CC Sabathia	8.09	2.56	1.51
33	John Danks	6.97	2.72	1.18
34	Jeff Niemann	6.79	2.86	1.21
35	Daisuke Matsuzaka	7.53	4.55	0.69
36	Phil Hughes	6.88	2.96	0.76
37	Colby Lewis	8.19	2.71	0.77
38	Bud Norris	8.85	3.89	1.06
39	Jake Peavy	7.59	2.43	0.99
40	Gavin Floyd	7.15	2.44	1.36
41	Kyle Davies	6.47	3.89	0.98
42	Tommy Hanson	8.52	2.76	0.99
43	Aaron Harang	6.6	3.03	0.96
44	Justin Masterson	6.72	3.21	2.25
45	Brett Myers	6.93	2.53	1.41
46	Matt Cain	7.2	2.51	0.91
47	J.A. Happ	7.53	4.8	0.8
48	Barry Zito	6.46	3.74	0.84
49	Clay Buchholz	6.32	3.44	1.5
50	Carlos Carrasco	6.54	2.87	1.56
51	Felix Hernandez	8.45	2.55	1.72
52	Travis Wood	6.85	2.83	0.68
53	Roy Oswalt	7.34	2.27	1.25
54	Wade LeBlanc	6.47	3.15	0.82
55	John Lackey	6.34	3.07	1.18
56	James Shields	8.21	2.29	1.18
57	Hiroki Kuroda	7.23	2.19	1.41
58	Shaun Marcum	7.34	2.27	0.88
59	Chris Carpenter	7.05	2.25	1.59
60	Clayton Richard	6.15	3.46	1.42
61	Jon Lester	9.17	3.56	1.65
62	Bartolo Colon	7.18	2.18	1.24
63	Scott Baker	7.99	2.24	0.8
64	Johnny Cueto	6.37	2.71	1.35
65	Daniel Hudson	7.18	2.18	0.98
66	Mat Latos	8.88	2.66	1.07
67	Adam Wainwright	8.32	2.19	1.68
68	Madison Bumgarner	7.9	2.05	1.3
69	Randy Wells	6.17	3	1.28
70	Ted Lilly	7.55	2.21	0.64
71	Joe Blanton	6.97	2.15	1.22
72	Dillon Gee	6.04	3.95	1.36
73	Rich Harden	8.63	4.76	0.68
74	Brett Cecil	6.2	2.92	1.03
75	Cole Hamels	8.62	2.24	1.37
76	Josh Johnson	8.93	2.51	1.39
77	Alexi Ogando	6.68	2.32	0.92
78	Luke Hochevar	6.07	2.96	1.51
79	Jason Hammel	6.05	2.99	1.36
80	Zack Greinke	8.78	2.3	1.37
81	Michael Pineda	9.11	2.89	0.81
82	Johan Santana	6.51	2.49	0.76
83	Derek Lowe	6.45	3.1	2.61
84	Ricky Nolasco	7.3	1.91	1.22
85	Yovani Gallardo	9.34	3.07	1.29
86	Justin Verlander	8.88	2.42	0.98
87	Matt Harrison	6	2.94	1.44
88	Tim Lincecum	9.45	3.4	1.5
89	Jered Weaver	8.43	2.15	0.71
90	Philip Humber	6.59	2.16	1.31
91	Kevin Millwood	6.17	2.68	0.96
92	Jon Garland	5.81	3.79	1.5
93	Jeremy Bonderman	5.88	3.18	1.14
94	Jordan Zimmermann	7.07	1.92	0.99
95	Charlie Morton	6.05	3.69	2.43
96	Jake Arrieta	5.94	4.38	1.14
97	Jeremy Hellickson	5.93	3.18	0.79
98	Trevor Cahill	5.9	3.23	2.07
99	Brian Duensing	6.06	2.57	1.34
100	Jair Jurrjens	5.9	2.88	1.06
101	Kevin Correia	5.77	3.1	1.41
102	Randy Wolf	5.8	3.22	0.94
103	Mike Leake	6.06	2.48	1.52
104	Tim Stauffer	6.04	2.56	1.89
105	Bruce Chen	5.85	3.12	0.74
106	Dan Haren	7.76	1.66	1.05
107	Chris Volstad	5.79	2.88	1.62
108	Clayton Kershaw	9.46	2.78	1.04
109	Zach Britton	5.66	3.62	1.86
110	Edinson Volquez	8.98	5.25	1.75
111	Brett Anderson	6.26	2.16	2.09
112	Jonathan Sanchez	9.36	4.95	1.01
113	Wade Davis	5.57	3.2	0.87
114	Tim Hudson	6.02	2.64	2.57
115	Ivan Nova	5.45	3.17	1.82
116	Dave Bush	5.4	3.36	0.94
117	Jason Vargas	5.65	2.58	0.8
118	Tim Wakefield	5.49	2.75	0.82
119	Freddy Garcia	5.47	2.65	0.98
120	Jake Westbrook	5.41	3.29	2.35
121	Roy Halladay	8.16	1.21	1.7
122	Scott Kazmir	5.52	4.81	0.88
123	R.A. Dickey	5.57	2.24	1.74
124	Fausto Carmona	5.26	2.98	1.92
125	Kevin Slowey	6.48	1.51	0.56
126	Brandon McCarthy	6.49	1.32	1.45
127	Cliff Lee	8.56	1.21	1.21
128	Zach Duke	5.23	2.66	1.5
129	Jeremy Guthrie	5.34	2.48	0.99
130	Paul Maholm	5.15	2.9	1.72
131	Kyle Lohse	5.3	2.47	1.13
132	Mitch Talbot	5	3.91	1.34
133	Jason Marquis	5.05	3.16	2.1
134	Dallas Braden	5.47	2.05	0.99
135	Mike Pelfrey	4.95	3	1.4
136	Armando Galarraga	4.95	3.54	0.8
137	Rodrigo Lopez	5.13	2.5	0.97
138	John Lannan	4.86	3.43	2.03
139	Doug Fister	5.55	1.62	1.43
140	Brandon Morrow	10.53	3.73	0.91
141	Livan Hernandez	4.95	2.56	1.07
142	Joe Saunders	4.81	2.84	1.23
143	Dustin Moseley	4.74	3.05	1.51
144	Brandon Beachy	10.57	3.04	0.77
145	Bronson Arroyo	4.97	2.26	0.99
146	Jeff Karstens	5.19	1.82	1.22
147	Rick Porcello	4.91	2.19	1.65
148	Jeff Francis	4.95	1.96	1.38
149	Brad Bergesen	4.56	2.79	1.2
150	Joel Pineiro	4.69	2.17	1.71
151	Tommy Hunter	4.69	1.98	1.01
152	Aaron Cook	4.35	3.58	2.32
153	Josh Tomlin	4.98	1.51	0.82
154	Kyle Kendrick	4.42	2.24	1.17
155	Mark Buehrle	4.5	2.04	1.23
156	Nick Blackburn	4.17	2.76	1.8
157	Brad Penny	4.13	2.69	1.58
158	Carl Pavano	4.45	1.56	1.64

Kershaw Wannabes

2011-12-15T18:04:00.000-08:00

Using 2010 and 2011 data and looking at K/9, BB/9 and GB/FB numbers I computed similarity scores for any starting pitcher who has thrown 150 or more innings the past two years. Out of the 158 qualified pitchers here are the pitchers with the most similar numbers to Clayton Kershaw. I will have lists for other Dodgers pitchers up in the near future. Note this chart was revised when first brought to my attention that I had only included 2011 data.

Rank	Name	K/9	BB/9	GB/FB
	Clayton Kershaw	9.46	2.78	1.04
1	Yovani Gallardo	9.34	3.07	1.29
2	Michael Pineda	9.11	2.89	0.81
3	Mat Latos	8.88	2.66	1.07
4	Justin Verlander	8.88	2.42	0.98
5	Josh Johnson	8.93	2.51	1.39
6	Tim Lincecum	9.45	3.4	1.5
7	Zack Greinke	8.78	2.3	1.37
8	Tommy Hanson	8.52	2.76	0.99
9	Jon Lester	9.17	3.56	1.65
10	David Price	8.44	2.96	1.16
11	Cole Hamels	8.62	2.24	1.37
12	Brandon Beachy	10.57	3.04	0.77
13	Max Scherzer	8.25	2.9	1.02
14	Ryan Dempster	8.6	3.62	1.27
15	Felix Hernandez	8.45	2.55	1.72
16	Anibal Sanchez	8.26	3.08	1.21
17	Jered Weaver	8.43	2.15	0.71
18	Bud Norris	8.85	3.89	1.06
19	Josh Beckett	8.17	2.72	1.09
20	Colby Lewis	8.19	2.71	0.77
21	Ubaldo Jimenez	8.65	3.73	1.41
22	James Shields	8.21	2.29	1.18
23	Francisco Liriano	8.62	3.64	1.66
24	Adam Wainwright	8.32	2.19	1.68
25	Brandon Morrow	10.53	3.73	0.91
26	CC Sabathia	8.09	2.56	1.51
27	Wandy Rodriguez	8.02	3.19	1.39
28	Ian Kennedy	7.92	2.7	0.91
29	Scott Baker	7.99	2.24	0.8
30	Chris Capuano	7.88	2.61	1.05
31	Felipe Paulino	8.37	3.97	1.13
32	Matt Garza	7.77	2.8	1.04
33	Jorge de la Rosa	8.22	3.84	1.55
34	Madison Bumgarner	7.9	2.05	1.3
35	Homer Bailey	7.69	2.73	1.07
36	C.J. Wilson	7.92	3.52	1.51
37	Jonathon Niese	7.78	2.89	1.65
38	Cliff Lee	8.56	1.21	1.21
39	Gio Gonzalez	8.23	4.09	1.4
40	Tom Gorzelanny	7.91	3.77	0.89
41	Jake Peavy	7.59	2.43	0.99
42	Derek Holland	7.61	3.2	1.3
43	James McDonald	7.8	3.9	0.86
44	Chad Billingsley	7.66	3.63	1.44
45	Ted Lilly	7.55	2.21	0.64
46	Dan Haren	7.76	1.66	1.05
47	Roy Halladay	8.16	1.21	1.7
48	A.J. Burnett	7.6	3.85	1.35
49	Jonathan Sanchez	9.36	4.95	1.01
50	Rich Harden	8.63	4.76	0.68
51	Shaun Marcum	7.34	2.27	0.88
52	Roy Oswalt	7.34	2.27	1.25
53	Javier Vazquez	7.24	2.97	0.74
54	Edwin Jackson	7.26	3.09	1.47
55	Chris Narveson	7.25	3.3	1.05
56	Matt Cain	7.2	2.51	0.91
57	Jhoulys Chacin	7.66	4.04	1.83
58	Ricky Nolasco	7.3	1.91	1.22
59	Hiroki Kuroda	7.23	2.19	1.41
60	Brian Matusz	7.23	3.47	0.74
61	Gavin Floyd	7.15	2.44	1.36
62	Daniel Hudson	7.18	2.18	0.98
63	Bartolo Colon	7.18	2.18	1.24
64	Ricky Romero	7.28	3.35	1.9
65	Jaime Garcia	7.24	2.87	2.03
66	John Danks	6.97	2.72	1.18
67	Ryan Vogelsong	6.99	3.14	1.34
68	Chris Carpenter	7.05	2.25	1.59
69	Jordan Zimmermann	7.07	1.92	0.99
70	Ervin Santana	6.92	2.89	0.98
71	Brett Myers	6.93	2.53	1.41
72	Joe Blanton	6.97	2.15	1.22
73	Phil Hughes	6.88	2.96	0.76
74	Edinson Volquez	8.98	5.25	1.75
75	Travis Wood	6.85	2.83	0.68
76	Daisuke Matsuzaka	7.53	4.55	0.69
77	Jeff Niemann	6.79	2.86	1.21
78	Carlos Zambrano	7.1	4.11	1.13
79	J.A. Happ	7.53	4.8	0.8
80	Alexi Ogando	6.68	2.32	0.92
81	Aaron Harang	6.6	3.03	0.96
82	Philip Humber	6.59	2.16	1.31
83	Carlos Carrasco	6.54	2.87	1.56
84	Johan Santana	6.51	2.49	0.76
85	Wade LeBlanc	6.47	3.15	0.82
86	Justin Masterson	6.72	3.21	2.25
87	Johnny Cueto	6.37	2.71	1.35
88	John Lackey	6.34	3.07	1.18
89	Barry Zito	6.46	3.74	0.84
90	Kyle Davies	6.47	3.89	0.98
91	Clay Buchholz	6.32	3.44	1.5
92	Brett Cecil	6.2	2.92	1.03
93	Kevin Slowey	6.48	1.51	0.56
94	Kevin Millwood	6.17	2.68	0.96
95	Randy Wells	6.17	3	1.28
96	Brandon McCarthy	6.49	1.32	1.45
97	Clayton Richard	6.15	3.46	1.42
98	Derek Lowe	6.45	3.1	2.61
99	Brian Duensing	6.06	2.57	1.34
100	Brett Anderson	6.26	2.16	2.09
101	Luke Hochevar	6.07	2.96	1.51
102	Jason Hammel	6.05	2.99	1.36
103	Mike Leake	6.06	2.48	1.52
104	Matt Harrison	6	2.94	1.44
105	Tim Stauffer	6.04	2.56	1.89
106	Jeremy Hellickson	5.93	3.18	0.79
107	Jair Jurrjens	5.9	2.88	1.06
108	Jeremy Bonderman	5.88	3.18	1.14
109	Dillon Gee	6.04	3.95	1.36
110	Bruce Chen	5.85	3.12	0.74
111	Randy Wolf	5.8	3.22	0.94
112	Chris Volstad	5.79	2.88	1.62
113	Kevin Correia	5.77	3.1	1.41
114	Trevor Cahill	5.9	3.23	2.07
115	Tim Hudson	6.02	2.64	2.57
116	Charlie Morton	6.05	3.69	2.43
117	Jon Garland	5.81	3.79	1.5
118	Jason Vargas	5.65	2.58	0.8
119	Jake Arrieta	5.94	4.38	1.14
120	Wade Davis	5.57	3.2	0.87
121	Tim Wakefield	5.49	2.75	0.82
122	Zach Britton	5.66	3.62	1.86
123	R.A. Dickey	5.57	2.24	1.74
124	Freddy Garcia	5.47	2.65	0.98
125	Dallas Braden	5.47	2.05	0.99
126	Doug Fister	5.55	1.62	1.43
127	Dave Bush	5.4	3.36	0.94
128	Ivan Nova	5.45	3.17	1.82
129	Jeremy Guthrie	5.34	2.48	0.99
130	Kyle Lohse	5.3	2.47	1.13
131	Zach Duke	5.23	2.66	1.5
132	Jake Westbrook	5.41	3.29	2.35
133	Fausto Carmona	5.26	2.98	1.92
134	Rodrigo Lopez	5.13	2.5	0.97
135	Paul Maholm	5.15	2.9	1.72
136	Jeff Karstens	5.19	1.82	1.22
137	Scott Kazmir	5.52	4.81	0.88
138	Livan Hernandez	4.95	2.56	1.07
139	Bronson Arroyo	4.97	2.26	0.99
140	Mike Pelfrey	4.95	3	1.4
141	Jason Marquis	5.05	3.16	2.1
142	Armando Galarraga	4.95	3.54	0.8
143	Jeff Francis	4.95	1.96	1.38
144	Mitch Talbot	5	3.91	1.34
145	Rick Porcello	4.91	2.19	1.65
146	Joe Saunders	4.81	2.84	1.23
147	Josh Tomlin	4.98	1.51	0.82
148	John Lannan	4.86	3.43	2.03
149	Dustin Moseley	4.74	3.05	1.51
150	Tommy Hunter	4.69	1.98	1.01
151	Joel Pineiro	4.69	2.17	1.71
152	Brad Bergesen	4.56	2.79	1.2
153	Mark Buehrle	4.5	2.04	1.23
154	Kyle Kendrick	4.42	2.24	1.17
155	Carl Pavano	4.45	1.56	1.64
156	Aaron Cook	4.35	3.58	2.32
157	Nick Blackburn	4.17	2.76	1.8
158	Brad Penny	4.13	2.69	1.58

Looking Ahead to 2012

2011-12-09T20:03:00.001-08:00

I have programmed up my simulator with the 2012 schedule and all of the updated trades and free agent signings (well at least the most significant ones). Still a little house keeping to do on updating my park factors and defensive ratings. Here is a preliminary look at how the simulator likes the 2012 Dodgers, including how it thinks the Dodgers will do on a month by month basis and which starting pitchers will have the most success.

Month	Wins	Losses	WPct
April	13.46	13.54	0.4984
May	14.11	12.89	0.5225
June	13.62	13.38	0.5043
July	13.18	13.82	0.4880
August	13.08	13.92	0.4846
September	12.70	14.30	0.4703
Overall	80.14	81.86	0.4947

Well, from the looks of this the Dodgers will be right around a .500 team. No real big surprise there as the team has lost one of its better starting pitchers in Hiroki Kuroda. NL Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw and MVP runner-up Matt Kemp will be hard pressed to repeat their 2011 performances, but the Dodgers should offset their regression with full seasons from Dee Gordon and Andre Ethier. May appears to be the Dodgers easiest month by far. A quick look at their May schedule shows them playing @COL, @CHN, SF, COL, ARI, @SD, STL, @ARI, HOU, MIL - which is 18 out of 28 games at home. On the flip side, September appears to be the Dodgers toughest month. A look at the September schedule shows, ARI, SD, @SF, @ARI, STL, @WAS, @CIN, @SD, COL - which is 14 out of 26 games on the road.

Now let's take a look at how many games the Dodgers won in games in which their top five starters pitched in. In my seasonal simulation I took all 162 starts from each team from its top five starters. In reality this isn't too realistic, but it is too tough at this point to get starting rotation depth charts for each team, and in this exercise at least each team is playing by the same rules.

Name	Wins	Losses	WPct
Kershaw	18.54	14.46	0.5620
Billingsley	15.79	17.22	0.4783
Lilly	15.50	16.50	0.4843
Capuano	15.46	16.54	0.4831
Harang	14.85	17.15	0.4641

Clayton Kershaw is obviously head and shoulders above the rest of the Dodgers starters, netting 2.75 for the Dodgers in games that he starts than his nearest teammate (Chad Billingsley). Billingsley, Lilly and Capuano are all pretty interchangeable with Harang being the obvious 5th starter for the men in blue.

2012 MLB Schedule In Text Ascii Format

2011-12-04T22:57:00.000-08:00

The format is the following:

Game Number,Year,Month,Day,Away,Home 2430,2012,10,3,LAA,SEA

The game number is just a counter from 1 to 2430 of all the scheduled games. It is easy enough to change or ignore the game counter if need be, but I use it. I have uploaded this text ascii (comma delimited) file as a shared Google document, one that anyone with the link can view or download.

How To Handicap Defense In Baseball

2011-12-01T20:16:00.000-08:00

Hitting and pitching, they both play a big role in how you should handicap a baseball game. The often forgotten and important piece of the puzzle is defense. Just how much does the removal or addition of a good defensive player effect the likely outcome (think win probability) of a single baseball game?

I am sure there are many ways of solving this problem. The method I am going to use is a theoretical one. First let's take a swag at how many runs per season a good defensive player saves over an average defensive player. I think 20 runs per season is a good conservative number for a good (think Brett Gardner) and a bad one (think Raul Ibanez) costing his team 20 runs per season.

20 runs over a 162 games averages out to around 0.123 runs per game. If we set our run environment to 9 runs per game, which is fairly accurate but the round number makes the math easier, we get a 50/50 game having 4.5 runs for both Team A and Team B. On Vegas with no juice this would be a -100/+100 game on the Money Line (ML). Now let's assume an average defensive player on Team A is replaced with a player who the only difference is, is that he is a +20 (runs saved per season) player. Team A now scores 4.5 runs per 27 outs but Team B now only scores (4.5 - 0.123) 4.377 runs per 27. Using the pythagorean formula for a quick and dirty win probability calculation Team A now has a win probability of 51.3853%. So his glove is worth approximately 1.39% win expectancy. On the Vegas ML the -100/+100 (no juice) line would now look like -106/+106.

This would mean that if we instead put a -20 run defensive player in, instead of the +20 player. We would see Team A get a 48.6147% win probability and be on the other side of the -106/+106 line, for a whopping drop in win expectancy of 2.46% in this example. Of course things are effected a little bit differently based on the run environment and type of pitcher pitching. An infielder in a low run environment game playing behind a ground ball pitcher will have a bigger effect on the game outcome than he would in a game being played in a higher run environment with a strikeout pitcher who sees very few balls put in play.

These are all things to take into consideration and each defensive replacement must be looked at on a case by case basis, but for a rough calculation replacing a great fielder with an average one will cost your team a little over 1% in win probability and replacing a great fielder with a very bad one will cost you around 2.5% in win probability, looking at defense only.

How Did Vegas Do Predicting MLB Games?

2011-11-20T22:39:00.000-08:00

A good way to tell how well Vegas (and my simulator) did at predicting winners during the season is to compare blocks of games that had similar odds to each other. For example, I took the 100 games that had the highest favorite to win and calculated the average Vegas win expectancy of those games and compared across the board to my simulator and the actual results. I did this for all 100 blocks of games as well as blocks of 300 and blocks of 600. The smaller the block size the more noise you will have but the more interesting trends you will see. Below are tables of those three types of blocks of games.

100 Blocks of Games				300 Blocks of Games				600 Blocks of Games
Blocks	Veg	Sim	Actual		Vegas	Sim	Actual		Vegas	Sim	Actual
1-100	0.6910	0.6723	0.6700	1-300	0.6615	0.6476	0.6267	1-600	0.6396	0.6301	0.6450
101-200	0.6549	0.6408	0.6100	301-600	0.6177	0.6126	0.6633	601-1200	0.5831	0.5762	0.5867
201-300	0.6387	0.6297	0.6000	601-900	0.5926	0.5858	0.5700	1201-1800	0.5486	0.5410	0.5517
301-400	0.6272	0.6217	0.6500	901-1200	0.5736	0.5666	0.6033	1801-2414	0.5171	0.5138	0.5220
401-500	0.6177	0.6059	0.6400	1201-1500	0.5569	0.5504	0.6033
501-600	0.6081	0.6101	0.7000	1501-1800	0.5404	0.5317	0.5000
601-700	0.5993	0.5943	0.6900	1801-2100	0.5251	0.5196	0.5033
701-800	0.5927	0.5821	0.5100	2101-2414	0.5095	0.5083	0.5399
801-900	0.5858	0.5810	0.5100
901-1000	0.5788	0.5784	0.5900
1000-1100	0.5734	0.5595	0.6100
1100-1200	0.5685	0.5620	0.6100
1201-1300	0.5629	0.5528	0.6500
1301-1400	0.5570	0.5519	0.6000
1401-1500	0.5507	0.5466	0.5600
1501-1600	0.5461	0.5360	0.5500
1601-1700	0.5402	0.5293	0.5400
1701-1800	0.5348	0.5298	0.4100
1801-1900	0.5303	0.5322	0.4600
1901-2000	0.5252	0.5230	0.5300
2001-2100	0.5199	0.5034	0.5200
2101-2200	0.5142	0.5111	0.5000
2201-2300	0.5098	0.5110	0.5400
2301-2414	0.5050	0.5035	0.5702

Matt Kemp, Rich Dude

2011-11-18T12:52:00.000-08:00

The Dodgers signed Matt Kemp to an impressive contract this afternoon. Kemp will make $160M over 8 years. Is this a good deal for the Dodgers? I sure hope so. A lot can go wrong in 8 years. Some of the things that should worry Dodgers fans about this contract are Kemp regressing, defense in center field and of course the always unpredictable injury bug. As good as Matt Kemp is, he by no means is an 8.7 WAR player. His "true talent" level may be unknown but the most likely level is probably around 5.5 WAR. A sizeable chunk of Kemp's value comes from his ability to play a scarce position (center field). Kemp is likely an average to slightly above average center fielder. As he gets older he may be moved out of CF to one of the corner outfield positions where more will be expected out of his bat (if not, he gets docked). The injury bug hasn't been a problem for Kemp, so he gets a pass on this one, but of course fluke injuries can happen to the most healthiest of players. That is a risk you just can't mitigate and comes with every player.

In the table below, I take a look at how I value this contract. It of course is a swag but a fun exercise nevertheless. Please feel free to ad your opinion to the mix. In this exercise I am going to start Matt Kemp off as a 5.5 WAR player for 2012 and 2013 before I slowly drop his WAR value down in each of the subsuquent years. I am setting the initial $/WAR value at 4.5M per WAR and assuming a salary inflation rate of 4%.

Year	$/WAR	WAR	Value
2012	4.5	5.5	24.75
2013	4.68	5.5	25.74
2014	4.87	5	24.34
2015	5.06	4.5	22.78
2016	5.26	4	21.06
2017	5.47	3.5	19.16
2018	5.69	3	17.08
2019	5.92	2.5	14.80
Total		33.5	169.71

Assuming my parameters are correct, Kemp's value comes in close to what he is getting paid. There is a total surplus of around $9.7M but a slight adjustment here and there to my input parameters can easily move that up or down another $10M or so. From the looks of things, this does look like a very fair deal to me.

Dodgers Season, Against The Odds

2011-11-07T20:03:00.000-08:00

Here is the compiled list of all 161 Dodgers games this season. The list is sorted by the games the Dodgers were the largest favorites in. The game in which the Dodgers were the biggest favorites was an August 13th game at Dodger Stadium against the Houston Astros. Wandy Rodriguez was on the mound for the Astros and Clayton Kershaw for the Dodgers. The Dodgers were 67.213% favorites to win that game in Vegas and did end up winning 6-1. If you add up the Vegas win expectancy of all 161 Dodgers games, they should have won 49.94% of their games or won 80.4 games. The Dodgers ended the season with an 82-79 record, so they slightly outperformed their Vegas expectations. Below is the entire list...

Rank	Date	Away SP	Home SP	Away	Home	Fave	Fave Win Perc	LAN Win Perc	Winning Team	Away Runs	Home Runs	Total Runs
1	08-13-2011	Wandy Rodriguez	Clayton Kershaw	HOU	LAN	LAN	67.213	67.213	LAN	1	6	7
2	05-02-11	James Russell	Clayton Kershaw	CHN	LAN	LAN	65.217	65.217	LAN	2	5	7
3	08-14-2011	Jordan Lyles	Hiroki Kuroda	HOU	LAN	LAN	64.851	64.851	LAN	0	7	7
4	09-15-2011	Ross Ohlendorf	Dana Eveland	PIT	LAN	LAN	64.286	64.286	PIT	6	2	8
5	09-16-2011	Jeff Locke	Hiroki Kuroda	PIT	LAN	LAN	64.093	64.093	LAN	2	7	9
6	05-13-2011	Joe Saunders	Clayton Kershaw	ARI	LAN	LAN	63.303	63.303	LAN	3	4	7
7	08-29-2011	Mat Latos	Clayton Kershaw	SD	LAN	LAN	61.014	61.014	LAN	1	4	5
8	06-20-2011	Brad Penny	Clayton Kershaw	DET	LAN	LAN	59.432	59.432	LAN	0	4	4
9	07-26-2011	Jhoulys Chacin	Clayton Kershaw	COL	LAN	LAN	59.432	59.432	LAN	2	3	5
10	09-18-2011	Brad Lincoln	Chad Billingsley	PIT	LAN	LAN	59.432	59.432	LAN	1	15	16
11	06-19-2011	Bud Norris	Hiroki Kuroda	HOU	LAN	LAN	59.267	59.267	LAN	0	1	1
12	09-17-2011	James McDonald	Ted Lilly	PIT	LAN	LAN	59.267	59.267	LAN	1	6	7
13	05-03-11	Ryan Dempster	Chad Billingsley	CHN	LAN	LAN	59.184	59.184	CHN	4	1	5
14	06-17-2011	Brett Myers	Ted Lilly	HOU	LAN	LAN	59.184	59.184	HOU	7	3	10
15	07-07-11	Dillon Gee	Clayton Kershaw	NYN	LAN	LAN	58.763	58.763	LAN	0	6	6
16	08-30-2011	Tim Stauffer	Hiroki Kuroda	SD	LAN	LAN	58.763	58.763	LAN	5	8	13
17	04-16-2011	Kyle McClellan	Clayton Kershaw	STL	LAN	LAN	58.42	58.42	STL	9	2	11
18	08-31-2011	Wade LeBlanc	Ted Lilly	SD	LAN	LAN	58.42	58.42	LAN	2	4	6
19	07-27-2011	Aaron Cook	Hiroki Kuroda	COL	LAN	LAN	58.333	58.333	COL	3	1	4
20	08-12-11	Bud Norris	Nathan Eovaldi	HOU	LAN	LAN	57.895	57.895	LAN	0	1	1
21	05-14-2011	Josh Collmenter	Chad Billingsley	ARI	LAN	LAN	57.356	57.356	ARI	1	0	1
22	07-22-2011	John Lannan	Hiroki Kuroda	WAS	LAN	LAN	57.356	57.356	WAS	7	2	9
23	04-03-11	Barry Zito	Hiroki Kuroda	SF	LAN	LAN	57.265	57.265	LAN	5	7	12
24	09-25-2011	Clayton Kershaw	Cory Luebke	LAN	SD	LAN	57.173	57.173	LAN	6	2	8
25	04-30-2011	Tim Stauffer	Hiroki Kuroda	SD	LAN	LAN	56.897	56.897	SD	5	2	7
26	09-14-2011	Daniel Hudson	Clayton Kershaw	ARI	LAN	LAN	56.803	56.803	LAN	2	3	5
27	04-26-2011	Clayton Kershaw	Chris Volstad	LAN	FLA	LAN	56.616	56.616	FLA	2	4	6
28	06-25-2011	Tyler Chatwood	Hiroki Kuroda	LAA	LAN	LAN	56.616	56.616	LAA	6	1	7
29	08-27-2011	Kevin Millwood	Chad Billingsley	COL	LAN	LAN	56.616	56.616	LAN	6	7	13
30	09-04-11	Clayton Kershaw	Randall Delgado	LAN	ATL	LAN	56.427	56.427	ATL	3	4	7
31	05-01-11	Dustin Moseley	Jon Garland	SD	LAN	LAN	56.14	56.14	SD	7	0	7
32	07-23-2011	Tom Gorzelanny	Ted Lilly	WAS	LAN	LAN	56.044	56.044	LAN	6	7	13
33	08-26-2011	Esmil Rogers	Ted Lilly	COL	LAN	LAN	56.044	56.044	LAN	1	6	7
34	04-21-2011	Jair Jurrjens	Clayton Kershaw	ATL	LAN	LAN	55.85	55.85	LAN	3	5	8
35	05-29-2011	Ricky Nolasco	Clayton Kershaw	FLA	LAN	LAN	55.85	55.85	LAN	0	8	8
36	07-24-2011	Jason Marquis	Chad Billingsley	WAS	LAN	LAN	55.85	55.85	LAN	1	3	4
37	07-30-2011	Micah Owings	Chad Billingsley	ARI	LAN	LAN	55.654	55.654	ARI	6	4	10
38	08-01-11	Clayton Kershaw	Cory Luebke	LAN	SD	LAN	55.556	55.556	LAN	6	2	8
39	05-23-2011	Clayton Kershaw	Bud Norris	LAN	HOU	LAN	55.457	55.457	HOU	3	4	7
40	05-17-2011	Randy Wolf	Hiroki Kuroda	MIL	LAN	LAN	55.157	55.157	LAN	0	3	3
41	06-18-2011	Wandy Rodriguez	Rubby DeLaRosa	HOU	LAN	LAN	55.157	55.157	HOU	7	0	7
42	05-28-2011	Brian Sanches	Hiroki Kuroda	FLA	LAN	LAN	54.853	54.853	FLA	6	1	7
43	06-14-2011	Johnny Cueto	Clayton Kershaw	CIN	LAN	LAN	54.853	54.853	CIN	3	2	5
44	07-09-11	Aaron Harang	Rubby DeLaRosa	SD	LAN	LAN	54.649	54.649	LAN	0	1	1
45	07-15-2011	Clayton Kershaw	Joe Saunders	LAN	ARI	LAN	54.649	54.649	LAN	6	4	10
46	07-05-11	Mike Pelfrey	Ted Lilly	NYN	LAN	LAN	54.442	54.442	NYN	6	0	6
47	05-24-2011	Chad Billingsley	J.A. Happ	LAN	HOU	LAN	54.442	54.442	LAN	5	4	9
48	07-06-11	John Niese	Hiroki Kuroda	NYN	LAN	LAN	54.233	54.233	NYN	5	3	8
49	07-08-11	Mat Latos	Chad Billingsley	SD	LAN	LAN	54.233	54.233	LAN	0	1	1
50	05-18-2011	Matt Cain	Clayton Kershaw	SF	LAN	LAN	54.233	54.233	SF	8	5	13
51	07-04-11	Chris Capuano	Rubby DeLaRosa	NYN	LAN	LAN	54.023	54.023	NYN	5	2	7
52	05-09-11	Chad Billingsley	Jeff Karstens	LAN	PIT	LAN	54.023	54.023	PIT	1	4	5
53	05-19-2011	Madison Bumgarner	Chad Billingsley	SF	LAN	LAN	54.023	54.023	SF	3	1	4
54	04-29-2011	Clayton Richard	Ted Lilly	SD	LAN	LAN	53.811	53.811	LAN	2	3	5
55	05-25-2011	Ted Lilly	Aneury Rodriguez	LAN	HOU	LAN	53.811	53.811	HOU	1	2	3
56	06-15-2011	Travis Wood	Chad Billingsley	CIN	LAN	LAN	53.811	53.811	CIN	7	2	9
57	08-28-2011	Jhoulys Chacin	Nathan Eovaldi	COL	LAN	LAN	53.811	53.811	COL	7	6	13
58	09-20-2011	Tim Lincecum	Clayton Kershaw	SF	LAN	LAN	53.596	53.596	LAN	1	2	3
59	04-01-11	Jonathan Sanchez	Chad Billingsley	SF	LAN	LAN	53.488	53.488	LAN	3	4	7
60	09-12-11	Joe Saunders	Ted Lilly	ARI	LAN	LAN	53.38	53.38	ARI	7	2	9
61	06-13-2011	Bronson Arroyo	Hiroki Kuroda	CIN	LAN	LAN	53.38	53.38	CIN	6	4	10
62	07-31-2011	Joe Saunders	Rubby DeLaRosa	ARI	LAN	LAN	53.38	53.38	ARI	6	3	9
63	05-31-2011	Clay Mortensen	Ted Lilly	COL	LAN	LAN	53.162	53.162	LAN	2	8	10
64	04-14-2011	Jaime Garcia	Hiroki Kuroda	STL	LAN	LAN	52.83	52.83	STL	9	5	14
65	05-04-11	Carlos Zambrano	Ted Lilly	CHN	LAN	LAN	52.719	52.719	CHN	5	1	6
66	08-18-2011	Clayton Kershaw	Marco Estrada	LAN	MIL	LAN	52.719	52.719	LAN	5	1	6
67	04-09-11	Hiroki Kuroda	Dustin Moseley	LAN	SD	LAN	52.494	52.494	LAN	4	0	4
68	04-15-2011	Kyle LOhse	Jon Garland	STL	LAN	LAN	52.494	52.494	STL	11	2	13
69	05-27-2011	Javier Vazquez	Jon Garland	FLA	LAN	LAN	52.494	52.494	LAN	3	4	7
70	07-25-2011	Juan Nicasio	Rubby DeLaRosa	COL	LAN	LAN	52.494	52.494	LAN	5	8	13
71	05-30-2011	Jason Hammel	Chad Billingsley	COL	LAN	LAN	52.381	52.381	LAN	1	7	8
72	04-19-2011	Brandon Beachy	Hiroki Kuroda	ATL	LAN	LAN	52.038	52.038	ATL	10	1	11
73	09-05-11	Hiroki Kuroda	John Lannan	LAN	WAS	LAN	51.807	51.807	WAS	2	7	9
74	09-24-2011	Chad Billingsley	Aaron Harang	LAN	SD	LAN	51.22	51.22	SD	0	3	3
75	06-26-2011	Jered Weaver	Clayton Kershaw	LAA	LAN	LAN	51.1	51.1	LAN	2	3	5
76	07-10-11	Tim Stauffer	Ted Lilly	SD	LAN	LAN	50.98	50.98	LAN	1	4	5
77	06-22-2011	Rick Porcello	Ted Lilly	DET	LAN	LAN	50.617	50.617	DET	7	5	12
78	03-31-2011	Tim Lincecum	Clayton Kershaw	SF	LAN	LAN	50.495	50.495	LAN	1	2	3
79	09-23-2011	Ted Lilly	Wade LeBlanc	LAN	SD	LAN	50.495	50.495	LAN	2	0	2
80	04-22-2011	Chad Billingsley	Casey Coleman	LAN	CHN	LAN	50.249	50.249	LAN	12	2	14
81	04-02-11	Matt Cain	Ted Lilly	SF	LAN	SF	50	50	SF	10	0	10
82	09-08-11	Chad Billingsley	Chien-Ming Wang	LAN	WAS	WAS	50	50	LAN	7	4	11
83	08-21-2011	Chad Billingsley	Kevin Millwood	LAN	COL	COL	50.249	49.751	COL	3	5	8
84	04-05-11	Clayton Kershaw	Jhoulys Chacin	LAN	COL	COL	50.495	49.505	COL	0	3	3
85	05-11-11	Hiroki Kuroda	Paul Maholm	LAN	PIT	PIT	50.739	49.261	LAN	2	0	2
86	08-19-2011	Hiroki Kuroda	Jason Hammel	LAN	COL	COL	50.86	49.14	LAN	8	2	10
87	08-02-11	Hiroki Kuroda	Mat Latos	LAN	SD	SD	51.1	48.9	LAN	1	0	1
88	08-07-11	Clayton Kershaw	Ian Kennedy	LAN	ARI	ARI	51.22	48.78	ARI	3	4	7
89	04-11-11	Clayton Kershaw	Madison Bumgarner	LAN	SF	SF	51.22	48.78	LAN	6	1	7
90	05-15-2011	Ian Kennedy	Ted Lilly	ARI	LAN	ARI	51.22	48.78	ARI	4	1	5
91	09-27-2011	Hiroki Kuroda	Jarrod Parker	LAN	ARI	ARI	51.456	48.544	ARI	6	7	13
92	07-01-11	Hiroki Kuroda	Tyler Chatwood	LAN	LAA	LAA	51.574	48.426	LAN	5	0	5
93	06-28-2011	Ted Lilly	Brian Duensing	LAN	MIN	MIN	51.574	48.426	MIN	4	6	10
94	08-23-2011	Clayton Kershaw	Kyle Lohse	LAN	STL	STL	52.153	47.847	LAN	13	2	15
95	06-21-2011	Max Scherzer	Chad Billingsley	DET	LAN	DET	52.267	47.733	LAN	1	6	7
96	07-29-2011	Josh Collmenter	Ted Lilly	ARI	LAN	ARI	52.267	47.733	LAN	9	5	14
97	06-27-2011	Chad Billingsley	Nick Blackburn	LAN	MIN	MIN	52.494	47.506	LAN	15	0	15
98	04-06-11	Chad Billingsley	Jason Hammel	LAN	COL	COL	52.607	47.393	COL	5	7	12
99	06-01-11	Ubaldo Jimenez	Jon Garland	COL	LAN	COL	52.719	47.281	COL	3	0	3
100	04-08-11	Ted Lilly	Clayton Richard	LAN	SD	SD	52.719	47.281	LAN	4	2	6
101	05-16-2011	Shaun Marcum	Jon Garland	MIL	LAN	MIL	52.719	47.281	MIL	2	1	3
102	06-04-11	Clayton Kershaw	Johnny Cueto	LAN	CIN	CIN	52.941	47.059	LAN	11	8	19
103	09-28-2011	Ted Lilly	Joe Saunders	LAN	ARI	ARI	52.941	47.059	LAN	7	5	12
104	06-05-11	Chad Billingsley	Travis Wood	LAN	CIN	CIN	53.162	46.838	LAN	9	6	15
105	05-10-11	Ted Lilly	Kevin Correia	LAN	PIT	PIT	53.271	46.729	LAN	10	3	13
106	04-27-2011	Chad Billingsley	Anibal Sanchez	LAN	FLA	FLA	53.38	46.62	LAN	5	4	9
107	09-21-2011	Ryan Vogelsong	Dana Eveland	SF	LAN	SF	53.38	46.62	SF	8	5	13
108	09-13-2011	Ian Kennedy	Chad Billingsley	ARI	LAN	ARI	53.596	46.404	ARI	5	4	9
109	05-08-11	Clayton Kershaw	R.A. Dickey	LAN	NYN	NYN	53.704	46.296	LAN	4	2	6
110	08-03-11	Ted Lilly	Tim Stauffer	LAN	SD	SD	53.811	46.189	SD	0	3	3
111	05-06-11	Hiroki Kuroda	John Niese	LAN	NYN	NYN	53.811	46.189	NYN	3	6	9
112	04-10-11	John Ely	Aaron Harang	LAN	SD	SD	53.811	46.189	SD	2	7	9
113	08-20-2011	Ted Lilly	Esmil Rogers	LAN	COL	COL	53.811	46.189	COL	6	7	13
114	09-09-11	Clayton Kershaw	Tim Lincecum	LAN	SF	SF	54.023	45.977	LAN	2	1	3
115	04-23-2011	Ted Lilly	Ryan Dempster	LAN	CHN	CHN	54.023	45.977	CHN	8	10	18
116	04-24-2011	Hiroki Kuroda	Carlos Zambrano	LAN	CHN	CHN	54.023	45.977	LAN	7	3	10
117	09-11-11	Hiroki Kuroda	Madison Bumgarner	LAN	SF	SF	54.442	45.558	SF	1	8	9
118	06-09-11	Clayton Kershaw	Juan Nicasio	LAN	COL	COL	54.649	45.351	COL	7	9	16
119	04-17-2011	Chris Carpenter	Chad Billingsley	STL	LAN	STL	54.649	45.351	LAN	1	2	3
120	09-01-11	Dana Eveland	Brad Lincoln	LAN	PIT	PIT	54.751	45.249	LAN	6	4	10
121	08-10-11	Vance Worley	Chad Billingsley	PHI	LAN	PHI	54.853	45.147	PHI	9	8	17
122	07-02-11	Clayton Kershaw	Jered Weaver	LAN	LAA	LAA	55.056	44.944	LAA	1	7	8
123	06-03-11	Hiroki Kuroda	Bronson Arroyo	LAN	CIN	CIN	55.056	44.944	CIN	1	2	3
124	05-07-11	Jon Garland	Chris Young	LAN	NYN	NYN	55.457	44.543	NYN	2	4	6
125	07-18-2011	Chad Billingsley	Ryan Vogelsong	LAN	SF	SF	55.457	44.543	SF	0	5	5
126	04-18-2011	Tim Hudson	Ted Lilly	ATL	LAN	ATL	55.654	44.346	LAN	2	4	6
127	07-16-2011	Hiroki Kuroda	Ian Kennedy	LAN	ARI	ARI	55.654	44.346	ARI	2	3	5
128	04-20-2011	Derek Lowe	Jon Garland	ATL	LAN	ATL	55.752	44.248	LAN	1	6	7
129	07-20-2011	Clayton Kershaw	Tim Lincecum	LAN	SF	SF	55.85	44.15	LAN	1	0	1
130	09-22-2011	Madison Bumgarner	Hiroki Kuroda	SF	LAN	SF	55.947	44.053	LAN	2	8	10
131	06-24-2011	Dan Haren	Rubby DeLaRosa	LAA	LAN	LAA	56.044	43.956	LAA	8	3	11
132	05-22-2011	Hiroki Kuroda	Edwin Jackson	LAN	CHA	CHA	56.803	43.197	CHA	3	8	11
133	08-05-11	Chad Billingsley	Josh Collmenter	LAN	ARI	ARI	56.989	43.011	LAN	7	4	11
134	04-25-2011	Jon Garland	Ricky Nolasco	LAN	FLA	FLA	57.173	42.827	FLA	4	5	9
135	07-19-2011	Rubby DeLaRosa	Madison Bumgarner	LAN	SF	SF	57.356	42.644	SF	3	5	8
136	06-29-2011	Rubby DeLaRosa	Scott Baker	LAN	MIN	MIN	57.717	42.283	MIN	0	1	1
137	07-03-11	Chad Billingsley	Ervin Santana	LAN	LAA	LAA	57.983	42.017	LAA	1	3	4
138	08-06-11	Nathan Eovaldi	Joe Saunders	LAN	ARI	ARI	58.333	41.667	LAN	5	3	8
139	09-10-11	Dana Eveland	Ryan Vogelsong	LAN	SF	SF	58.333	41.667	LAN	3	0	3
140	04-13-2011	Ted Lilly	Jonathan Sanchez	LAN	SF	SF	58.42	41.58	SF	3	4	7
141	05-20-2011	Ted Lilly	Phil Humber	LAN	CHA	CHA	58.42	41.58	LAN	6	4	10
142	08-24-2011	Hiroki Kuroda	Jaime Garcia	LAN	STL	STL	58.592	41.408	LAN	9	4	13
143	06-10-11	Chad Billingsley	Jhoulys Chacin	LAN	COL	COL	58.932	41.068	COL	5	6	11
144	09-06-11	Ted Lilly	Stephen Strasburg	LAN	WAS	WAS	59.1	40.9	LAN	7	3	10
145	09-03-11	Nathan Eovaldi	Mike Minor	LAN	ATL	ATL	59.184	40.816	LAN	2	1	3
146	06-11-11	Ted Lilly	Jason Hammel	LAN	COL	COL	59.184	40.816	LAN	11	7	18
147	05-21-2011	Jon Garland	Mark Buehrle	LAN	CHA	CHA	59.514	40.486	CHA	2	9	11
148	07-17-2011	Ted Lilly	Daniel Hudson	LAN	ARI	ARI	60.159	39.841	ARI	1	4	5
149	09-02-11	Chad Billingsley	Brandon Beachy	LAN	ATL	ATL	60.861	39.139	LAN	8	6	14
150	08-08-11	Roy Halladay	Hiroki Kuroda	PHI	LAN	PHI	61.014	38.986	PHI	5	3	8
151	08-15-2011	Ted Lilly	Randy Wolf	LAN	MIL	MIL	61.165	38.835	MIL	0	3	3
152	04-12-11	Chad Billingsley	Tim Lincecum	LAN	SF	SF	62.049	37.951	SF	4	5	9
153	09-26-2011	Dana Eveland	Daniel Hudson	LAN	ARI	ARI	62.049	37.951	LAN	4	2	6
154	08-09-11	Cliff Lee	Ted Lilly	PHI	LAN	PHI	62.477	37.523	PHI	2	1	3
155	08-16-2011	Chad Billingsley	Yovanni Gallardo	LAN	MIL	MIL	62.617	37.383	MIL	1	2	3
156	06-07-11	Rubby DeLaRosa	Roy Oswalt	LAN	PHI	PHI	62.894	37.106	LAN	6	2	8
157	06-08-11	Hiroki Kuroda	Cole Hamels	LAN	PHI	PHI	63.834	36.166	PHI	0	2	2
158	06-06-11	Ted Lilly	Cliff Lee	LAN	PHI	PHI	64.222	35.778	PHI	1	3	4
159	08-22-2011	Nathan Eovaldi	Chris Carpenter	LAN	STL	STL	64.349	35.651	LAN	2	1	3
160	08-17-2011	Nathan Eovaldi	Zach Greinke	LAN	MIL	MIL	65.458	34.542	MIL	1	3	4
161	06-12-11	Rubby DeLaRosa	Ubaldo Jimenez	LAN	COL	COL	65.812	34.188	LAN	10	8	18

Better Than Expected

2011-11-05T09:02:00.001-07:00

... Or not enough respect!?

I have taken all the Vegas odds along with empirical 2011 results to tally up which MLB starting pitchers helped their team garner better than expected results. The methodology was to take the win percentage of the games each starting pitcher pitched in, then comparing that to the expected win percentage of those same games based on the win expectancy provided by Vegas odds. If a team was a 60% Vegas favorite to win a game then that pitcher was credited with 0.6 expected wins and 0.4 expected losses. I weighted the difference between actual and expected wins based off of games started. Below are the results...

Rank	Pitcher	Team	Starts	Wins	Losses	Wins(E)	Losses(E)	Win Perc	Exp Win Perc
1	Ian Kennedy	ARI	35	25	10	17.89	17.11	71.43	51.12
2	Clayton Kershaw	LAN	33	23	10	17.83	15.17	69.7	54.03
3	Jason Marquis	WAS	24	16	8	10.90	13.10	66.67	45.43
4	Justin Verlander	DET	37	27	10	22.11	14.89	72.97	59.76
5	Vance Worley	PHI	21	16	5	11.54	9.46	76.19	54.96
6	Rick Porcello	DET	33	21	12	17.03	15.97	63.64	51.6
7	Zach Greinke	MIL	31	22	9	18.03	12.97	70.97	58.17
8	Aaron Harang	SD	28	17	11	13.23	14.77	60.71	47.25
9	Mark Buehrle	CHA	30	19	11	15.23	14.77	63.33	50.78
10	Luke Hochevar	KC	31	18	13	14.24	16.76	58.06	45.92
11	Dillon Gee	NYN	26	16	10	12.30	13.70	61.54	47.31
12	Matt Harrison	TEX	34	22	12	18.38	15.62	64.71	54.06
13	Bruce Chen	KC	25	15	10	11.39	13.61	60	45.55
14	Randy Wolf	MIL	35	21	14	17.76	17.24	60	50.73
15	Jeff Niemann	TB	24	15	9	11.80	12.20	62.5	49.18
16	Javier Vazquez	FLA	32	18	14	14.85	17.15	56.25	46.42
17	Jair Jurrjens	ATL	23	16	7	12.91	10.09	69.57	56.15
18	Justin Masterson	CLE	33	20	13	16.96	16.04	60.61	51.39
19	Roy Halladay	PHI	34	25	9	21.96	12.04	73.53	64.59
20	James Shields	TB	34	21	13	17.98	16.02	61.76	52.87
21	Jeff Karstens	PIT	28	15	13	12.05	15.95	53.57	43.05
22	Kyle Drabek	TOR	13	9	4	6.16	6.84	69.23	47.41
23	Tommy Milone	WAS	5	5	0	2.25	2.75	100	44.95
24	Max Scherzer	DET	36	22	14	19.27	16.73	61.11	53.53
25	Derek Holland	TEX	35	22	13	19.28	15.72	62.86	55.09
26	Andrew Miller	BOS	12	9	3	6.36	5.64	75	52.96
27	Ivan Nova	NYA	29	19	10	16.42	12.58	65.52	56.63
28	Jeanmar Gomez	CLE	10	7	3	4.60	5.41	70	45.95
29	Kevin Correia	PIT	26	14	12	11.72	14.28	53.85	45.07
30	Micah Owings	ARI	4	4	0	1.78	2.22	100	44.55
31	Johnny Cueto	CIN	24	15	9	12.81	11.19	62.5	53.38
32	Jered Weaver	LAA	33	21	12	18.88	14.12	63.64	57.21
33	Josh Beckett	BOS	30	20	10	17.89	12.11	66.67	59.62
34	Mike Minor	ATL	15	10	5	8.02	6.98	66.67	53.47
35	Yovanni Gallardo	MIL	36	22	14	20.15	15.85	61.11	55.98
36	Phil Hughes	NYA	15	10	5	8.22	6.78	66.67	54.81
37	Jake Westbrook	STL	34	19	15	17.22	16.78	55.88	50.66
38	Wandy Rodriguez	HOU	33	16	17	14.23	18.77	48.48	43.12
39	C.J. Wilson	TEX	40	24	16	22.27	17.73	60	55.67
40	Jerome Williams	LAA	6	5	1	3.27	2.73	83.33	54.49
41	Tommy Hunter	BAL	11	6	5	4.31	6.69	54.55	39.15
42	Wade Davis	TB	28	16	12	14.32	13.68	57.14	51.15
43	Kevin Millwood	COL	9	6	3	4.33	4.67	66.67	48.11
44	Chris Young	NYN	5	4	1	2.34	2.66	80	46.77
45	Eric Surkamp	SF	5	4	1	2.50	2.50	80	49.91
46	Wade Miley	ARI	7	5	2	3.51	3.49	71.43	50.1
47	Brandon Morrow	TOR	30	17	13	15.54	14.46	56.67	51.8
48	Greg Reynolds	COL	3	3	0	1.58	1.42	100	52.81
49	Joe Saunders	ARI	33	17	16	15.61	17.39	51.52	47.29
50	Ryan Dempster	CHN	34	18	16	16.64	17.36	52.94	48.93
51	Chris Narveson	MIL	28	16	12	14.64	13.36	57.14	52.29
52	Nathan Eovaldi	LAN	6	4	2	2.64	3.36	66.67	44.06
53	Cliff Lee	PHI	33	22	11	20.64	12.36	66.67	62.56
54	Alex White	CLE	10	6	4	4.65	5.36	60	46.45
55	Zach Britton	BAL	27	14	13	12.72	14.28	51.85	47.11
56	Carlos Zambrano	CHN	24	13	11	11.72	12.28	54.17	48.84
57	Ryan Vogelsong	SF	28	16	12	14.73	13.27	57.14	52.6
58	Clay Buchholz	BOS	14	9	5	7.75	6.25	64.29	55.39
59	Brad Peacock	WAS	2	2	0	0.79	1.21	100	39.73
60	Jake Arrieta	BAL	21	11	10	9.81	11.19	52.38	46.7
61	Mike Leake	CIN	26	15	11	13.86	12.14	57.69	53.3
62	Matt Garza	CHN	30	16	14	14.87	15.14	53.33	49.55
63	Edwin Jackson	CHA	35	19	16	17.91	17.09	54.29	51.16
64	Daniel Hudson	ARI	34	19	15	17.91	16.09	55.88	52.67
65	Randall Delgado	ATL	6	4	2	2.92	3.08	66.67	48.62
66	C.C. Sabathia	NYA	34	22	12	20.92	13.08	64.71	61.53
67	Miguel Batista	NYN	4	3	1	1.93	2.07	75	48.14
68	Gio Gonzalez	OAK	32	18	14	16.93	15.07	56.25	52.9
69	Matt Moore	TB	2	2	0	0.95	1.06	100	47.25
70	Luis Mendoza	KC	2	2	0	0.95	1.05	100	47.37
71	John Niese	NYN	26	13	13	11.96	14.04	50	46
72	John Lannan	WAS	33	16	17	14.97	18.03	48.48	45.37
73	Carlos Villanueva	TOR	13	7	6	6.02	6.98	53.85	46.28
74	Ricky Romero	TOR	33	18	15	17.03	15.97	54.55	51.62
75	Ross Detwiler	WAS	11	6	5	5.04	5.96	54.55	45.84
76	Josh Johnson	FLA	9	6	3	5.12	3.88	66.67	56.88
77	Kyle Lohse	STL	33	18	15	17.13	15.87	54.55	51.92
78	Jo-Jo Reyes	TOR	26	12	14	11.14	14.86	46.15	42.83
79	Randy Wells	CHN	23	11	12	10.14	12.86	47.83	44.08
80	Tommy Hanson	ATL	23	14	9	13.17	9.83	60.87	57.27
81	Brad Lincoln	PIT	7	4	3	3.21	3.79	57.14	45.8
82	Jason Vargas	SEA	32	15	17	14.21	17.79	46.88	44.41
83	Anthony Bass	SD	3	2	1	1.28	1.72	66.67	42.77
84	Chien-Ming Wang	WAS	10	5	5	4.30	5.70	50	42.97
85	Matt Palmer	LAA	3	2	1	1.30	1.70	66.67	43.35
86	Dana Eveland	LAN	5	3	2	2.36	2.64	60	47.15
87	Brandon Dickson	STL	1	1	0	0.37	0.63	100	36.83
88	Josh Collmenter	ARI	24	13	11	12.37	11.63	54.17	51.56
89	Dallas Braden	OAK	3	2	1	1.39	1.61	66.67	46.4
90	Aaron Thompson	PIT	1	1	0	0.44	0.56	100	43.57
91	Josh Tomlin	CLE	26	13	13	12.44	13.56	50	47.84
92	Kyle Kendrick	PHI	14	8	6	7.45	6.55	57.14	53.21
93	Brian Gordon	NYA	1	1	0	0.47	0.53	100	46.51
94	Jesse Litsch	TOR	8	4	4	3.48	4.52	50	43.49
95	Kyle McClellan	STL	18	10	8	9.50	8.50	55.56	52.77
96	Juan Nicasio	COL	13	7	6	6.50	6.50	53.85	50.02
97	Everett Teaford	KC	3	2	1	1.51	1.49	66.67	50.3
98	Jarrod Parker	ARI	1	1	0	0.51	0.49	100	51.22
99	Sergio Mitre	MIL	1	1	0	0.51	0.49	100	51.22
100	Dan Runzler	SF	1	1	0	0.52	0.48	100	52.04
101	Alan Johnson	COL	1	1	0	0.54	0.46	100	53.6
102	Matt Beaven	SEA	1	1	0	0.54	0.46	100	53.6
103	Joel Pineiro	LAA	25	13	12	12.55	12.46	52	50.18
104	Graham Godfrey	OAK	4	2	2	1.56	2.44	50	39.07
105	Brian Burres	PIT	1	1	0	0.57	0.43	100	56.99
106	Andrew Cashner	CHN	1	1	0	0.58	0.42	100	57.63
107	James McDonald	PIT	32	15	17	14.59	17.41	46.88	45.58
108	Chris Jakubauskas	BAL	6	3	3	2.58	3.42	50	43.08
109	Dylan Axelrod	CHA	3	2	1	1.60	1.40	66.67	53.18
110	Vin Mazzaro	KC	4	2	2	1.60	2.40	50	39.92
111	Freddy Garcia	NYA	27	15	12	14.63	12.37	55.56	54.17
112	Jordan Zimmerman	WAS	26	13	13	12.64	13.36	50	48.61
113	Henderson Alvarez	TOR	10	5	5	4.65	5.35	50	46.54
114	Rick VandenHurk	BAL	2	1	1	0.68	1.32	50	33.94
115	Jeremy Hellickson	TB	30	16	14	15.71	14.29	53.33	52.36
116	Ross Ohlendorf	PIT	9	4	5	3.74	5.26	44.44	41.58
117	Barry Zito	SF	8	4	4	3.78	4.22	50	47.3
118	Chris Capuano	NYN	31	15	16	14.79	16.21	48.39	47.7
119	Nathan Adcock	KC	2	1	1	0.79	1.21	50	39.47
120	Luis Perez	TOR	4	2	2	1.83	2.17	50	45.82
121	Drew Pomeranz	COL	4	2	2	1.86	2.14	50	46.58
122	Brian Duensing	MIN	27	12	15	11.90	15.10	44.44	44.08
123	Esmil Rogers	COL	13	6	7	5.90	7.10	46.15	45.42
124	Dave Bush	TEX	2	1	1	0.91	1.09	50	45.43
125	Jorge de la Rosa	COL	9	5	4	4.92	4.08	55.56	54.64
126	Guillermo Moscoso	OAK	21	10	11	9.94	11.06	47.62	47.34
127	Brian Sanches	FLA	2	1	1	0.95	1.05	50	47.45
128	Alexi Ogando	TEX	30	17	13	16.97	13.04	56.67	56.55
129	Anthony Swarzak	MIN	11	5	6	4.97	6.03	45.45	45.17
130	Chad Reineke	CIN	2	1	1	1.01	0.99	50	50.59
131	Wade LeBlanc	SD	14	6	8	6.02	7.98	42.86	43.01
132	Cory Luebke	SD	17	8	9	8.03	8.97	47.06	47.23
133	Scott Feldman	TEX	2	1	1	1.03	0.97	50	51.48
134	Marco Estrada	MIL	6	3	3	3.03	2.97	50	50.52
135	Brad Mills	TOR	4	2	2	2.05	1.95	50	51.16
136	Lance Lynn	STL	2	1	1	1.06	0.94	50	52.82
137	Alfredo Simon	BAL	15	6	9	6.06	8.94	40	40.4
138	Cole Hamels	PHI	32	19	13	19.06	12.94	59.38	59.57
139	Zach Duke	ARI	9	4	5	4.06	4.94	44.44	45.14
140	Mitch Talbot	CLE	12	5	7	5.07	6.93	41.67	42.21
141	Bartolo Colon	NYA	26	14	12	14.09	11.91	53.85	54.19
142	Daisuke Matsuzaka	BOS	7	4	3	4.17	2.83	57.14	59.52
143	Chris Tillman	BAL	14	6	8	6.17	7.83	42.86	44.07
144	Felix Hernandez	SEA	33	17	16	17.27	15.73	51.52	52.33
145	Mitch Atkins	BAL	3	1	2	1.28	1.72	33.33	42.69
146	Brad Penny	DET	31	15	16	15.30	15.70	48.39	49.35
147	Charlie Morton	PIT	28	12	16	12.30	15.70	42.86	43.94
148	Matt Cain	SF	34	18	16	18.32	15.68	52.94	53.87
149	Dan Haren	LAA	33	18	15	18.34	14.66	54.55	55.57
150	D.J. Carrasco	NYN	1	0	1	0.36	0.64	0	36.1
151	Tim Wakefield	BOS	23	12	11	12.37	10.63	52.17	53.8
152	Elih Villanueva	FLA	1	0	1	0.40	0.60	0	39.76
153	Jay Buente	FLA	1	0	1	0.42	0.58	0	42.46
154	Joe Blanton	PHI	9	4	5	4.43	4.57	44.44	49.2
155	Jake Peavy	CHA	18	9	9	9.43	8.57	50	52.41
156	Nick Blackburn	MIN	26	11	15	11.45	14.55	42.31	44.03
157	Dustin McGowan	TOR	3	1	2	1.45	1.55	33.33	48.47
158	John Ely	LAN	1	0	1	0.46	0.54	0	46.19
159	Felipe Paulino	KC	21	9	12	9.46	11.54	42.86	45.06
160	Alex Cobb	TB	9	4	5	4.47	4.53	44.44	49.67
161	Homer Bailey	CIN	22	11	11	11.47	10.53	50	52.14
162	Armando Galarraga	ARI	8	3	5	3.48	4.52	37.5	43.52
163	Carl Pavano	MIN	33	14	19	14.48	18.52	42.42	43.88
164	Sean O'Sullivan	KC	10	4	6	4.49	5.51	40	44.87
165	Scott Kazmir	LAA	1	0	1	0.49	0.51	0	48.78
166	Tyson Ross	OAK	7	3	4	3.49	3.51	42.86	49.89
167	Julio Teheran	ATL	3	1	2	1.50	1.50	33.33	49.94
168	Clay Hensley	FLA	8	3	5	3.51	4.49	37.5	43.88
169	Jeff Locke	PIT	4	1	3	1.51	2.49	25	37.87
170	Doug Fister	SEA	33	15	18	15.52	17.48	45.45	47.02
171	Ervin Santana	LAA	34	17	17	17.52	16.48	50	51.54
172	Sam LeCure	CIN	5	2	3	2.54	2.46	40	50.8
173	Brandon McCarthy	OAK	24	11	13	11.56	12.44	45.83	48.17
174	Alex Sanabia	FLA	2	0	2	0.59	1.41	0	29.27
175	Tim Hudson	ATL	33	18	15	18.60	14.40	54.55	56.35
176	Jaime Garcia	STL	37	20	17	20.61	16.39	54.05	55.69
177	Madison Bumgarner	SF	33	17	16	17.62	15.38	51.52	53.38
178	Erik Bedard	SEA	24	12	12	12.62	11.38	50	52.57
179	Rodrigo Lopez	CHN	17	7	10	7.66	9.34	41.18	45.04
180	Yunesky Maya	WAS	4	1	3	1.66	2.34	25	41.59
181	Bud Norris	HOU	31	13	18	13.68	17.32	41.94	44.14
182	Rubby DeLaRosa	LAN	10	4	6	4.70	5.30	40	46.99
183	Liam Hendriks	MIN	4	1	3	1.73	2.27	25	43.3
184	R.A. Dickey	NYN	32	15	17	15.74	16.26	46.88	49.19
185	Jonathan Sanchez	SF	19	9	10	9.74	9.26	47.37	51.28
186	Charles Furbush	SEA	10	3	7	3.76	6.24	30	37.57
187	Brett Myers	HOU	33	13	20	13.76	19.24	39.39	41.69
188	Henry Sosa	HOU	9	3	6	3.78	5.22	33.33	42.05
189	Francisco Liriano	MIN	24	11	13	11.79	12.21	45.83	49.12
190	Trevor Cahill	OAK	33	15	18	15.79	17.21	45.45	47.85
191	Chad Billingsley	LAN	32	15	17	15.80	16.20	46.88	49.37
192	Lucas Harrell	HOU	2	0	2	0.84	1.16	0	41.92
193	Andy Sonnanstine	TB	4	1	3	1.84	2.16	25	46.03
194	Clay Mortensen	COL	6	2	4	2.84	3.16	33.33	47.39
195	Brett Anderson	OAK	13	6	7	6.87	6.13	46.15	52.82
196	Ramon Ortiz	CHN	2	0	2	0.90	1.10	0	44.83
197	Andrew Oliver	DET	2	0	2	0.90	1.10	0	45.13
198	Blake Beavan	SEA	14	5	9	5.90	8.10	35.71	42.17
199	Hector Noesi	NYA	2	0	2	0.91	1.09	0	45.32
200	Bronson Arroyo	CIN	32	15	17	15.92	16.08	46.88	49.74
201	Colby Lewis	TEX	35	18	17	18.92	16.08	51.43	54.07
202	Charlie Furbush	DET	2	0	2	0.93	1.07	0	46.73
203	Scott Baker	MIN	21	9	12	9.95	11.05	42.86	47.37
204	Zachary McAllister	CLE	4	1	3	1.96	2.04	25	48.96
205	Ted Lilly	LAN	33	15	18	15.97	17.03	45.45	48.39
206	Neslon Figueroa	HOU	5	1	4	1.99	3.01	20	39.8
207	Chris Volstad	FLA	29	12	17	12.99	16.01	41.38	44.81
208	Stephen Strasburg	WAS	5	2	3	3.00	2.00	40	60.08
209	A.J. Burnett	NYA	32	17	15	18.01	13.99	53.13	56.27
210	Rich Harden	OAK	16	6	10	7.04	8.96	37.5	43.99
211	Carlos Carrasco	CLE	21	9	12	10.05	10.95	42.86	47.86
212	John Lackey	BOS	28	14	14	15.05	12.95	50	53.76
213	Garrett Richards	LAA	3	0	3	1.10	1.90	0	36.69
214	Tyler Chatwood	LAA	24	10	14	11.13	12.87	41.67	46.37
215	Jeremy Guthrie	BAL	33	14	19	15.13	17.87	42.42	45.85
216	Brad Hand	FLA	12	4	8	5.19	6.81	33.33	43.21
217	Jacob Turner	DET	2	0	2	1.20	0.80	0	60.06
218	Barry Enright	ARI	7	2	5	3.21	3.79	28.57	45.88
219	Travis Wood	CIN	16	7	9	8.21	7.79	43.75	51.34
220	Alfredo Aceves	BOS	4	1	3	2.22	1.78	25	55.59
221	Tim Stauffer	SD	31	13	18	14.38	16.62	41.94	46.38
222	Duane Below	DET	3	0	3	1.42	1.58	0	47.48
223	Mat Latos	SD	31	14	17	15.47	15.53	45.16	49.9
224	Aneury Rodriguez	HOU	6	1	5	2.51	3.49	16.67	41.88
225	Jason Hammel	COL	27	12	15	13.55	13.45	44.44	50.19
226	Anthony Vasquez	SEA	7	1	6	2.62	4.38	14.29	37.36
227	Phil Humber	CHA	26	11	15	12.66	13.34	42.31	48.71
228	Kyle Davies	KC	14	4	10	5.67	8.33	28.57	40.49
229	Kyle Weiland	BOS	5	1	4	2.67	2.33	20	53.44
230	David Price	TB	35	18	17	19.70	15.30	51.43	56.28
231	Derek Lowe	ATL	34	16	18	17.72	16.28	47.06	52.12
232	Chris Schwinden	NYN	4	0	4	1.76	2.24	0	44.07
233	Chris Carpenter	STL	39	20	19	21.79	17.21	51.28	55.86
234	Scott Diamond	MIN	7	1	6	2.80	4.20	14.29	40.03
235	John Danks	CHA	27	12	15	13.90	13.10	44.44	51.49
236	Michael Pineda	SEA	28	12	16	13.96	14.04	42.86	49.87
237	David Huff	CLE	9	2	7	3.97	5.03	22.22	44.06
238	Gavin Floyd	CHA	31	14	17	15.99	15.01	45.16	51.59
239	Tom Gorzelanny	WAS	15	5	10	7.01	7.99	33.33	46.76
240	James Russell	CHN	5	0	5	2.08	2.92	0	41.56
241	Fausto Carmona	CLE	32	13	19	15.13	16.87	40.63	47.27
242	Ricky Nolasco	FLA	33	14	19	16.18	16.82	42.42	49.04
243	Edinson Volquez	CIN	20	8	12	10.20	9.80	40	50.99
244	Josh Outman	OAK	9	2	7	4.20	4.80	22.22	46.65
245	Clayton Richard	SD	18	6	12	8.26	9.74	33.33	45.89
246	Jon Garland	LAN	9	2	7	4.28	4.72	22.22	47.53
247	Anibal Sanchez	FLA	33	14	19	16.33	16.67	42.42	49.49
248	Hiroki Kuroda	LAN	32	14	18	16.36	15.64	43.75	51.12
249	Zach Stewart	TOR	11	3	8	5.36	5.64	27.27	48.74
250	Shaun Marcum	MIL	36	17	19	19.47	16.53	47.22	54.08
251	Tim Lincecum	SF	34	17	17	19.60	14.40	50	57.64
252	Mike Pelfrey	NYN	33	12	21	14.61	18.39	36.36	44.27
253	Brett Cecil	TOR	21	7	14	9.72	11.28	33.33	46.28
254	Danny Duffy	KC	19	5	14	7.73	11.27	26.32	40.67
255	Phil Coke	DET	14	4	10	6.78	7.22	28.57	48.4
256	Livan Hernandez	WAS	29	10	19	12.78	16.22	34.48	44.06
257	Doug Davis	CHN	9	1	8	3.81	5.19	11.11	42.3
258	Aaron Cook	COL	17	5	12	8.00	9.00	29.41	47.07
259	Jordan Lyles	HOU	15	3	12	6.01	8.99	20	40.07
260	Casey Coleman	CHN	17	4	13	7.02	9.98	23.53	41.27
261	Jon Lester	BOS	31	16	15	19.07	11.93	51.61	61.52
262	Brad Bergesen	BAL	12	2	10	5.10	6.90	16.67	42.53
263	Kevin Slowey	MIN	8	0	8	3.44	4.56	0	43.06
264	Dontrelle Willis	CIN	15	4	11	7.50	7.50	26.67	50.03
265	Brandon Beachy	ATL	25	10	15	13.60	11.40	40	54.39
266	Roy Oswalt	PHI	24	10	14	13.65	10.35	41.67	56.88
267	Brian Matusz	BAL	11	1	10	4.80	6.20	9.09	43.63
268	Jhoulys Chacin	COL	30	12	18	15.94	14.06	40	53.14
269	Dustin Moseley	SD	20	5	15	9.03	10.97	25	45.15
270	Jeff Francis	KC	31	10	21	14.10	16.90	32.26	45.48
271	Ubaldo Jimenez	COL	32	13	19	17.46	14.54	40.63	54.55
272	J.A. Happ	HOU	28	7	21	11.85	16.15	25	42.31
273	Paul Maholm	PIT	26	7	19	12.01	13.99	26.92	46.18

World Series Game #6 Simulation

2011-10-24T22:18:00.001-07:00

Pushed To The Brink ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Rangers	Cardinals	C.Lewis vs J.Garcia	Cardinals	53.38%	58.48%	STL 10-9

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World Series Game #5

2011-10-23T22:06:00.000-07:00

Winner Take All? ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Cardinals	Rangers	C.Carpenter vs C.Wilson	Rangers	54.02%	56.28%	TEX 4-2

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World Series Game #4 Simulation

2011-10-22T23:02:00.000-07:00

Pujols Dominates ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Cardinals	Rangers	E.Jackson vs D.Holland	Rangers	63.57%	56.72%	TEX 4-0

Game Notes: Last nights crazy 16-7 game was the 302nd most likely final score in the simulation. The run total line in Vegas opened at 9.8 runs (9.5 O -120) and overnight jumped to 10.3 runs (10 O -120) which is almost unheard of. Could it be a psychological over-reaction to last nights slugfest? The run total line of 10.3 runs is the tied for 19th highest run total line of any game so far this season. Two Derek Holland pitched games are on the list ahead of this one. They were home games against the Florida Marlins and Houston Astros. The Marlins pitcher was Brad Hand (#2 Rank, Vegas 10.8 runs, Actual runs 14) and the Astros pitcher was J.A. Happ (#14 Rank, Vegas 10.4 runs, Actual runs 11). What does tonight have in store?

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World Series Game #3 Simulation

2011-10-21T19:40:00.001-07:00

All Tied Up ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Cardinals	Rangers	K.Lohse vs M.Harrison	Rangers	63.90%	58.73%	STL 16-7

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World Series Game #2 Simulation

2011-10-19T22:56:00.001-07:00

Cardinals Look To Go Up Two Nil ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Rangers	Cardinals	C.Lewis vs J.Garcia	Rangers	51.69%	41.55%	TEX 2-1

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World Series Game #1 Simulation

2011-10-16T22:23:00.000-07:00

Ice Breaker ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Rangers	Cardinals	C.Wilson vs C.Carpenter	Cardinals	53.80%	53.61%	STL 3-2

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October 16th Simulations

2011-10-15T23:10:00.000-07:00

Brewers Looking To Hold Serve ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Cardinals	Brewers	E.Jackson vs S.Marcum	Brewers	55.06%	46.65%	STL 12-6

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Tigers vs Rangers ALCS Game #6 Simulated Box Score

2011-10-15T15:20:00.000-07:00

Hitting

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	BB	SO	wOBA
Austin Jackson	4.456	1.065	0.73	0.2	0.06	0.075	0.327	0.353	1.662	0.291
Ryan Raburn	4.366	1.114	0.628	0.294	0.015	0.177	0.507	0.304	1.314	0.325
Miguel Cabrera	3.996	1.243	0.697	0.343	0.002	0.201	0.585	0.593	0.814	0.408
Victor Martinez	4.144	1.263	0.847	0.293	0.003	0.121	0.538	0.307	0.562	0.356
Delmon Young	4.178	1.149	0.748	0.254	0.009	0.139	0.538	0.217	0.947	0.325
Jhonny Peralta	3.998	1.047	0.678	0.216	0.015	0.137	0.475	0.283	0.943	0.321
Alex Avila	3.747	0.926	0.582	0.202	0.023	0.119	0.415	0.416	1.189	0.322
Brandon Inge	3.757	0.878	0.511	0.257	0.017	0.093	0.383	0.3	1.019	0.296
Ramon Santiago	3.673	0.977	0.615	0.236	0.04	0.085	0.393	0.242	0.748	0.319

Ian Kinsler	4.168	1.186	0.676	0.249	0.029	0.232	0.574	0.496	0.571	0.38
Elvis Andrus	4.163	1.156	0.895	0.196	0.025	0.04	0.329	0.381	0.642	0.317
Josh Hamilton	4.133	1.306	0.737	0.281	0.066	0.222	0.696	0.394	0.872	0.405
Michael Young	4.079	1.27	0.915	0.238	0.032	0.084	0.519	0.293	0.622	0.353
Adrian Beltre	4.042	1.269	0.685	0.323	0.006	0.255	0.794	0.227	0.611	0.395
Mike Napoli	3.733	1.064	0.599	0.244	0.004	0.216	0.624	0.418	0.937	0.379
Nelson Cruz	3.763	1.04	0.57	0.243	0.011	0.216	0.61	0.276	0.941	0.359
David Murphy	3.589	1.041	0.654	0.209	0.026	0.151	0.5	0.382	0.688	0.367
Endy Chavez	3.568	0.991	0.678	0.174	0.032	0.107	0.427	0.303	0.731	0.336

Pitching

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Max Scherzer	5.447	4.149	1.621	6.752	1.166	88.894	5.352
Jose Valverde	0.392	0.33	0.164	0.411	0.042	6.447	4.165
Joaquin Benoit	0.44	0.399	0.119	0.481	0.061	7.015	4.007
Al Alburquerque	0.722	0.719	0.402	0.707	0.051	12.406	3.807
Phil Coke	0.465	0.282	0.211	0.554	0.044	7.772	4.591
Ryan Perry	0.78	0.456	0.402	0.953	0.087	13.327	5.033
Daniel Schlereth	0.36	0.273	0.243	0.439	0.067	6.549	6.141
Brad Penny	0.02	0.007	0.007	0.027	0.004	0.323	6.232

Derek Holland	5.938	5.666	2.043	6.39	0.757	97.037	3.981
Neftali Feliz	0.425	0.461	0.138	0.391	0.031	6.776	2.948
Mike Adams	0.43	0.466	0.09	0.412	0.035	6.656	2.709
Koji Uehara	0.756	0.99	0.12	0.733	0.134	11.815	3.356
Alexi Ogando	0.429	0.372	0.119	0.478	0.049	6.856	3.787
Mike Gonzalez	0.893	0.922	0.402	0.92	0.113	15.065	4.134
Darren Oliver	0.321	0.314	0.103	0.329	0.026	5.163	3.276
Yoshinori Tateyama	0.007	0.007	0.002	0.008	0.001	0.111	4.893

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 TEX 4-3	51 TEX 8-1	101 TEX 11-5
2 TEX 3-2	52 TEX 6-0	102 TEX 11-1
3 TEX 5-4	53 TEX 8-6	103 TEX 12-2
4 TEX 6-5	54 DET 8-6	104 TEX 10-0
5 DET 4-3	55 TEX 9-3	105 TEX 10-7
6 TEX 2-1	56 DET 8-5	106 DET 10-7
7 TEX 4-2	57 DET 8-4	107 DET 9-1
8 DET 3-2	58 TEX 9-2	108 TEX 12-3
9 DET 5-4	59 DET 8-3	109 DET 10-2
10 TEX 5-3	60 DET 8-7	110 DET 7-0
11 TEX 3-1	61 DET 6-1	111 TEX 12-4
12 TEX 5-2	62 DET 2-0	112 DET 11-4
13 TEX 7-6	63 TEX 9-8	113 DET 10-8
14 TEX 4-1	64 TEX 7-0	114 TEX 12-1
15 DET 4-2	65 TEX 9-4	115 TEX 10-8
16 TEX 6-3	66 DET 1-0	116 DET 11-3
17 DET 5-3	67 TEX 9-1	117 DET 10-1
18 DET 6-5	68 TEX 9-5	118 DET 10-9
19 TEX 6-4	69 DET 8-2	119 DET 11-5
20 TEX 6-2	70 DET 3-0	120 TEX 12-5
21 DET 2-1	71 TEX 10-2	121 TEX 11-6
22 DET 6-4	72 DET 9-4	122 TEX 13-2
23 TEX 5-1	73 TEX 10-3	123 TEX 11-7
24 DET 5-2	74 DET 7-1	124 DET 11-7
25 TEX 7-3	75 TEX 9-6	125 DET 11-6
26 DET 6-3	76 TEX 10-4	126 TEX 11-10
27 TEX 6-1	77 TEX 8-0	127 DET 8-0
28 DET 3-1	78 DET 9-5	128 TEX 13-3
29 TEX 7-4	79 DET 9-3	129 TEX 11-0
30 TEX 7-2	80 TEX 10-1	130 TEX 13-4
31 TEX 7-5	81 DET 4-0	131 DET 12-4
32 TEX 3-0	82 DET 9-6	132 DET 12-5
33 DET 4-1	83 TEX 9-7	133 TEX 11-8
34 DET 7-4	84 TEX 10-5	134 DET 11-2
35 DET 7-6	85 DET 9-7	135 TEX 12-6
36 TEX 8-7	86 DET 5-0	136 DET 11-8
37 TEX 4-0	87 TEX 9-0	137 DET 12-6
38 DET 7-5	88 DET 9-2	138 TEX 13-5
39 DET 6-2	89 DET 9-8	139 DET 9-0
40 TEX 2-0	90 DET 8-1	140 TEX 14-4
41 TEX 7-1	91 TEX 11-3	141 TEX 11-9
42 TEX 8-3	92 DET 10-4	142 TEX 12-0
43 TEX 8-2	93 TEX 11-4	143 TEX 13-1
44 TEX 1-0	94 TEX 11-2	144 DET 12-3
45 DET 7-3	95 DET 10-5	145 TEX 13-6
46 TEX 8-4	96 TEX 10-9	146 TEX 14-2
47 DET 5-1	97 DET 10-3	147 TEX 14-3
48 TEX 5-0	98 DET 6-0	148 DET 11-9
49 TEX 8-5	99 TEX 10-6	149 DET 12-7
50 DET 7-2	100 DET 10-6	150 DET 12-2

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October 15th Simulations

2011-10-14T20:38:00.001-07:00

Closing Time For Texas ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Tigers	Rangers	M.Scherzer vs D.Holland	Rangers	58.93%	61.34%	TEX 15-5

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October 14th Simulations

2011-10-14T07:46:00.000-07:00

All Tied At Two ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Brewers	Cardinals	Z.Greinke vs J.Garcia	Cardinals	51.22%	61.04%	STL 7-1

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October 13th Simulations

2011-10-12T22:27:00.000-07:00

Tigers On The Brink ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Rangers	Tigers	C.Wilson vs J.Verlander	Tigers	60.24%	49.06%	DET 7-5
Brewers	Cardinals	R.Wolf vs K.Lohse	Cardinals	56.62%	64.06%	MIL 4-2

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October 12th Simulations

2011-10-11T23:00:00.000-07:00

Double Your LCS Pleasure! ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Rangers	Tigers	M.Harrison vs R.Porcello	Rangers	52.38%	54.12%	TEX 7-3
Brewers	Cardinals	Y.Gallardo vs C.Carpenter	Cardinals	59.27%	63.67%	STL 4-3

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October 11th Simulations

2011-10-10T21:23:00.000-07:00

Fister Of Fury ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Rangers	Tigers	C.Lewis vs D.Fister	Tigers	56.99%	58.97%	DET 5-2

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Cardinals vs Brewers Game #2 Simulation Box Score

2011-10-10T14:45:00.000-07:00

Hitting

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	BB	SO	wOBA
Rafael Furcal	4.52	1.313	0.82	0.344	0.028	0.121	0.406	0.307	0.766	0.345
Jon Jay	4.484	1.34	0.9	0.311	0.038	0.091	0.408	0.261	0.947	0.341
Albert Pujols	4.28	1.372	0.826	0.273	0.002	0.27	0.715	0.334	0.582	0.402
Matt Holliday	4.186	1.277	0.722	0.352	0.004	0.2	0.667	0.336	0.993	0.381
Lance Berkman	3.925	1.157	0.698	0.229	0.016	0.215	0.659	0.504	0.906	0.388
Yadier Molina	4.087	1.235	0.844	0.277	0.006	0.108	0.524	0.215	0.566	0.344
David Freese	4.001	1.175	0.787	0.27	0.012	0.107	0.494	0.202	0.981	0.337
Nick Punto	3.78	0.999	0.625	0.26	0.029	0.086	0.433	0.329	0.902	0.325
Pitchers Spot	3.881	0.489	0.39	0.082	0.003	0.014	0.163	0.121	1.943	0.143

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	BB	SO	wOBA
Corey Hart	4.211	1.175	0.712	0.236	0.031	0.197	0.44	0.358	0.998	0.355
Nyjer Morgan	4.195	1.218	0.817	0.263	0.081	0.057	0.311	0.291	0.752	0.336
Ryan Braun	4.046	1.295	0.791	0.264	0.034	0.206	0.613	0.324	0.725	0.395
Prince Fielder	3.608	1.051	0.592	0.235	0.008	0.216	0.633	0.712	0.768	0.41
Ricky Weeks	3.838	1.064	0.638	0.257	0.025	0.143	0.575	0.339	0.907	0.348
Jerry Hairston Jr.	3.778	0.981	0.63	0.257	0.012	0.082	0.442	0.278	0.577	0.312
Yunieskey Betancourt	3.825	0.995	0.676	0.202	0.025	0.092	0.426	0.12	0.504	0.295
Jonathan Lucroy	3.597	0.926	0.684	0.165	0.007	0.07	0.341	0.241	0.806	0.297
Pitchers Spot	3.597	0.483	0.39	0.078	0.004	0.011	0.137	0.142	1.552	0.155

Pitching

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Edwin Jackson	6.04	4.912	1.87	6.471	0.741	96.136	4.097
Fernando Salas	0.47	0.515	0.121	0.425	0.056	7.318	3.324
Kyle McClellan	0.403	0.268	0.125	0.469	0.074	6.437	5.195
Jason Motte	0.686	0.666	0.18	0.655	0.058	10.672	3.141
Octavio Dotel	0.355	0.41	0.127	0.334	0.054	5.782	3.92
Marc Rzepczynski	0.555	0.567	0.275	0.532	0.061	9.355	4.069
Mitchell Boggs	0.278	0.237	0.1	0.284	0.03	4.469	3.954
Arthur Rhodes	0.016	0.012	0.006	0.017	0.003	0.256	5.567

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Shaun Marcum	5.845	5.098	1.613	6.858	0.884	94.537	4.249
John Axford	0.41	0.535	0.115	0.347	0.028	6.501	2.325
Francisco Rodriguez	0.45	0.546	0.146	0.422	0.039	7.299	2.866
Kameron Loe	0.785	0.762	0.175	0.836	0.075	12.336	3.165
LaTroy Hawkins	0.451	0.355	0.128	0.509	0.035	7.181	3.492
Takashi Saito	0.951	0.975	0.336	1.005	0.102	15.636	3.601
Tim Dillard	0.328	0.307	0.093	0.372	0.047	5.31	4.06
Marco Estrada	0.007	0.008	0.002	0.007	0.001	0.118	3.872

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 MIL 4-3	51 STL 8-4	101 MIL 10-2
2 MIL 3-2	52 MIL 7-2	102 MIL 10-5
3 MIL 5-4	53 MIL 4-0	103 STL 11-5
4 STL 3-2	54 STL 8-5	104 STL 12-3
5 STL 4-3	55 STL 8-1	105 MIL 8-0
6 MIL 2-1	56 MIL 8-7	106 STL 10-0
7 STL 4-2	57 STL 6-0	107 STL 10-7
8 STL 5-4	58 STL 9-2	108 STL 12-4
9 MIL 4-2	59 MIL 8-3	109 MIL 10-7
10 STL 5-3	60 MIL 8-4	110 MIL 10-9
11 MIL 6-5	61 MIL 8-5	111 STL 12-2
12 STL 2-1	62 STL 9-3	112 MIL 10-1
13 MIL 5-3	63 MIL 5-0	113 STL 10-8
14 STL 3-1	64 STL 9-4	114 MIL 9-0
15 STL 5-2	65 STL 7-0	115 MIL 10-6
16 MIL 3-1	66 STL 8-6	116 MIL 11-3
17 STL 4-1	67 MIL 8-6	117 STL 11-6
18 MIL 5-2	68 MIL 7-1	118 STL 12-5
19 MIL 4-1	69 MIL 8-2	119 MIL 11-4
20 STL 6-3	70 STL 8-7	120 MIL 11-2
21 STL 6-4	71 STL 9-1	121 STL 11-7
22 STL 5-1	72 MIL 6-0	122 MIL 10-8
23 STL 6-5	73 STL 9-5	123 STL 12-1
24 MIL 6-4	74 MIL 8-1	124 MIL 11-5
25 STL 6-2	75 STL 9-6	125 STL 11-0
26 MIL 7-6	76 STL 10-2	126 STL 13-3
27 MIL 6-3	77 STL 8-0	127 STL 10-9
28 STL 6-1	78 STL 10-3	128 STL 13-2
29 MIL 1-0	79 STL 10-4	129 MIL 11-6
30 STL 7-3	80 MIL 9-3	130 STL 13-4
31 STL 7-4	81 MIL 9-8	131 STL 13-1
32 STL 7-2	82 MIL 9-2	132 STL 11-8
33 STL 3-0	83 MIL 9-4	133 MIL 12-3
34 MIL 5-1	84 STL 10-5	134 MIL 10-0
35 MIL 6-2	85 MIL 9-5	135 STL 13-5
36 STL 2-0	86 STL 10-1	136 STL 13-6
37 STL 4-0	87 MIL 7-0	137 MIL 11-10
38 STL 7-5	88 STL 9-7	138 STL 12-6
39 MIL 2-0	89 STL 9-8	139 MIL 11-1
40 MIL 3-0	90 MIL 9-6	140 MIL 12-2
41 STL 7-1	91 STL 10-6	141 MIL 12-5
42 STL 5-0	92 STL 9-0	142 STL 12-0
43 STL 7-6	93 STL 11-3	143 MIL 11-8
44 MIL 7-4	94 STL 11-4	144 MIL 11-7
45 MIL 7-5	95 MIL 9-7	145 STL 11-9
46 STL 1-0	96 MIL 9-1	146 STL 12-7
47 STL 8-2	97 STL 11-2	147 STL 14-3
48 MIL 7-3	98 STL 11-1	148 MIL 12-6
49 MIL 6-1	99 MIL 10-4	149 STL 14-5
50 STL 8-3	100 MIL 10-3	150 MIL 12-4

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Tigers vs Rangers ALCS Game #2 Simulated Box Score

2011-10-10T10:00:00.001-07:00

Hitting

Name	AB	Hits	H1	H2	H3	HR	RBI	BB	SO	wOBA
Austin Jackson	4.443	1.053	0.724	0.197	0.058	0.075	0.311	0.353	1.659	0.289
Ramon Santiago	4.33	1.133	0.71	0.273	0.048	0.102	0.413	0.283	0.877	0.315
Delmon Young	4.351	1.183	0.77	0.259	0.009	0.145	0.487	0.229	0.99	0.322
Miguel Cabrera	3.891	1.2	0.671	0.333	0.002	0.195	0.594	0.584	0.792	0.407
Victor Martinez	4.032	1.222	0.818	0.283	0.002	0.119	0.526	0.304	0.549	0.355
Ryan Raburn	3.989	1.014	0.573	0.267	0.013	0.16	0.539	0.278	1.199	0.324
Jhonny Peralta	3.88	1.003	0.65	0.207	0.015	0.132	0.466	0.278	0.914	0.318
Alex Avila	3.633	0.888	0.561	0.191	0.022	0.114	0.405	0.408	1.15	0.32
Brandon Inge	3.66	0.842	0.488	0.248	0.015	0.091	0.366	0.281	0.997	0.292
Rangers
Ian Kinsler	4.17	1.181	0.672	0.249	0.028	0.231	0.576	0.494	0.565	0.378
Elvis Andrus	4.16	1.158	0.893	0.199	0.026	0.04	0.334	0.381	0.64	0.318
Josh Hamilton	4.135	1.302	0.733	0.283	0.066	0.221	0.695	0.389	0.878	0.403
Michael Young	4.078	1.267	0.909	0.24	0.033	0.085	0.521	0.292	0.62	0.353
Adrian Beltre	4.04	1.266	0.678	0.321	0.006	0.26	0.791	0.228	0.608	0.396
Mike Napoli	3.727	1.049	0.591	0.241	0.004	0.212	0.605	0.421	0.937	0.375
Nelson Cruz	3.76	1.032	0.566	0.242	0.011	0.213	0.601	0.277	0.935	0.357
David Murphy	3.584	1.028	0.688	0.178	0.027	0.135	0.463	0.385	0.67	0.358
Mitch Moreland	3.498	0.932	0.604	0.19	0.012	0.126	0.442	0.371	0.775	0.339

Pitching

Name	IP	SO	BB	Hits	HR	PC	FIP
Max Scherzer	5.448	4.142	1.653	6.692	1.166	88.857	5.372
Jose Valverde	0.389	0.329	0.167	0.405	0.042	6.416	4.189
Joaquin Benoit	0.444	0.402	0.121	0.477	0.062	7.061	4.011
Al Alburquerque	0.72	0.726	0.416	0.696	0.052	12.441	3.856
Phil Coke	0.465	0.284	0.217	0.543	0.044	7.767	4.602
Ryan Perry	0.783	0.465	0.411	0.949	0.089	13.407	5.059
Daniel Schlereth	0.359	0.272	0.246	0.425	0.066	6.506	6.143
Brad Penny	0.02	0.008	0.007	0.026	0.004	0.321	6.23
Rangers
Derek Holland	5.982	5.643	2.032	6.354	0.752	97.246	3.968
Neftali Feliz	0.426	0.461	0.141	0.388	0.032	6.792	2.989
Mike Adams	0.426	0.464	0.091	0.405	0.034	6.595	2.684
Koji Uehara	0.75	0.974	0.116	0.711	0.129	11.643	3.297
Alexi Ogando	0.425	0.368	0.114	0.461	0.048	6.731	3.758
Mike Gonzalez	0.875	0.905	0.402	0.894	0.111	14.779	4.16
Darren Oliver	0.314	0.304	0.101	0.32	0.027	5.041	3.323
Yoshinori Tateyama	0.006	0.006	0.002	0.007	0.001	0.103	4.364

Starting Pitchers	Away	Home	Favorite	Exp Win%	Away Runs/Game	Home Runs/Game	Total Runs/Game
Max Scherzer vs Derek Holland	Tigers	Rangers	Rangers	61.71%	4.16	5.11	9.27

Top 25 Most Likely Scores

Rank	Tigers	Rangers	Out of 100K
1	3	4	3538
2	2	3	3358
3	4	5	3227
4	5	6	2310
5	1	2	2305
6	4	3	2232
7	2	4	2103
8	3	2	1968
9	3	5	1947
10	5	4	1884
11	1	3	1788
12	2	5	1716
13	1	4	1627
14	5	3	1561
15	6	7	1558
16	3	6	1520
17	4	2	1517
18	4	6	1499
19	6	5	1421
20	2	6	1340
21	2	1	1308
22	1	5	1292
23	6	4	1281
24	5	2	1223
25	4	7	1124

Cardinals vs Brewers Simulation box score.
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October 10th Simulations

2011-10-09T21:52:00.000-07:00

Cardinals and Tigers Need A Win ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Tigers	Rangers	M.Scherzer vs D.Holland	Rangers	58.25%	62.30%	TEX 7-3
Cardinals	Brewers	E.Jackson vs S.Marcum	Cardinals	56.99%	49.53%	STL 12-3

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October 9th Simulations

2011-10-08T22:18:00.000-07:00

LCS Gets Hot and Heavy ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Cardinals	Brewers	J.Garcia vs Z.Greinke	Brewers	58.07%	53.26%	MIL 9-6
Tigers	Rangers	M.Scherzer vs D.Holland	Rangers	57.08%	60.68%	Ppd.

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October 8th Simulations

2011-10-07T22:49:00.000-07:00

ALCS Begins ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Tigers	Rangers	J.Verlander vs C.Wilson	Rangers	50.62%	38.15%	TEX 3-2

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October 7th Simulations

2011-10-06T22:27:00.000-07:00

NLDS For All The Marbles ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
DBacks	Brewers	I.Kennedy vs Y.Gallardo	Brewers	58.76%	58.59%	MIL 3-2
Cardinals	Phillies	C.Carpenter vs R.Halladay	Phillies	63.30%	58.47%	STL 1-0

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October 6th Simulations

2011-10-05T22:05:00.000-07:00

LDS - Yankees Looking For Super Nova ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Tigers	Yankees	D.Fister vs I.Nova	Yankees	60.24%	52.44%	DET 3-2

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October 5th Simulations

2011-10-04T22:58:00.000-07:00

LDS - Cardinals/DBacks Holding On For Dear Life ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Phillies	Cardinals	R.Oswalt vs E.Jackson	Phillies	52.94%	43.54%	STL 5-3
Brewers	DBacks	R.Wolf vs J.Saunders	DBacks	51.22%	55.60%	ARI 10-6

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October 4th Simulations

2011-10-03T23:41:00.000-07:00

LDS - Yankees and Rays Pushed To The Brink ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Rangers	Rays	M.Harrison vs J.Hellickson	Rays	52.72%	39.25%	TEX 4-3
Phillies	Cardinals	C.Hamels vs J.Garcia	Phillies	55.85%	40.38%	PHI 3-2
Yankees	Tigers	A.Burnett vs R.Porcello	Tigers	52.83%	52.30%	NYA 10-1
Brewers	DBacks	S.Marcum vs J.Collmenter	Brewers	51.33%	46.21%	ARI 8-1

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October 3rd Simulations

2011-10-02T21:55:00.000-07:00

LDS - American League Takes The Spotlight ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Rangers	Rays	C.Lewis vs D.Price	Rays	56.52%	50.93%	TEX 4-3
Yankees	Tigers	C.Sabathia vs J.Verlander	Tigers	55.56%	49.49%	DET 5-4

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October 2nd Simulations

2011-10-01T21:42:00.000-07:00

LDS Get Even Day ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Tigers	Yankees	M.Scherzer vs F.Garcia	Yankees	56.52%	58.07%	DET 5-3
DBacks	Brewers	D.Hudson vs Z.Greinke	Brewers	60.08%	63.17%	MIL 9-4
Cardinals	Phillies	C.Carpenter vs C.Lee	Phillies	62.89%	58.76%	STL 5-4

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October 1st Simulations

2011-10-01T10:00:00.000-07:00

LDS Full Tilt ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
DBacks	Brewers	I.Kennedy vs Y.Gallardo	Brewers	57.36%	57.46%	MIL 4-1
Cardinals	Phillies	K.Lohse vs R.Halladay	Phillies	67.43%	61.07%	PHI 11-6
Rays	Rangers	J.Shields vs D.Holland	Rangers	52.92%	65.23%	TEX 8-6

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Septemer 28th Simulations

2011-09-27T23:58:00.000-07:00

Season Finale ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	DBacks	T.Lilly vs J.Saunders	DBacks	52.91%	58.93%	LAN 7-5
Cardinals	Astros	C.Carpenter vs B.Myers	Cardinals	TBD	65.81%	TBD
WAS	FLA	Stephen Strasburg vs Chris Volstad	FLA	TBD	52.155	TBD
CHN	SD	Ryan Dempster vs Wade LeBlanc	SD	TBD	51.677	TBD
TEX	LAA	Matt Harrison vs Garrett Richards	TEX	TBD	63.798	TBD
PHI	ATL	Joe Blanton vs Tim Hudson	ATL	TBD	60.159	TBD
COL	SF	Drew Pomeranz vs Matt Cain	SF	TBD	60.155	TBD
Yankees	Rays	TBD vs D.Price	TB	TBD	56.47%	TBD
TOR	CHA	Brandon Morrow vs Phil Humber	CHA	TBD	55.471	TBD
BOS	BAL	Jon Lester vs Alfredo Simon	BOS	TBD	60.743	TBD
CIN	NYN	Edinson Volquez vs Miguel Batista	NYN	TBD	53.029	TBD
KC	MIN	Bruce Chen vs Carl Pavano	MIN	TBD	51.729	TBD
OAK	SEA	Gio Gonzalez vs Anthony Vasquez	OAK	TBD	57.374	TBD
PIT	MIL	Jeff Locke vs Zach Greinke	MIL	TBD	73.799	TBD
CLE	DET	Zach McAllister vs Rick Porcello	DET	TBD	63.845	TBD

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September 27th Simulations

2011-09-26T23:00:00.000-07:00

40/40? ... Maybe/Maybe! ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	DBacks	H.Kuroda vs J.Parker	DBacks	51.22%	57.44%	ARI 7-6
PHI	ATL	Roy Oswalt vs Derek Lowe	ATL	TBD	51.41%	TBD
TOR	CHA	Henderson Alvarez vs Mark Buehrle	CHA	TBD	57.38%	TBD
CIN	NYN	Bronson Arroyo vs Chris Capuano	NYN	TBD	58.46%	TBD
PIT	MIL	Ross Ohlendorf vs Randy Wolf	MIL	TBD	65.16%	TBD
TEX	LAA	Colby Lewis vs Ervin Santana	TEX	TBD	53.05%	TBD
KC	MIN	Sean O'Sullivan vs Anthony Swarzak	MIN	TBD	56.08%	TBD
CHN	SD	Matt Garza vs Anthony Bass	CHN	TBD	51.77%	TBD
STL	HOU	Jake Westbrook vs Henry Sosa	STL	TBD	64.50%	TBD
COL	SF	Alex White vs Madison Bumgarner	SF	TBD	62.78%	TBD
CLE	DET	Jeanmar Gomez vs Max Scherzer	DET	TBD	64.45%	TBD
WAS	FLA	John Lannan vs Javier Vazquez	FLA	TBD	57.19%	TBD
NYA	TB	Bartolo Colon vs Jeremy Hellickson	NYA	TBD	51.26%	TBD
OAK	SEA	Trevor Cahill vs Blake Beavan	OAK	TBD	51.23%	TBD
BOS	BAL	Erik Bedard vs Zach Britton	BOS	TBD	52.69%	TBD

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September 26th Simulations

2011-09-26T00:14:00.000-07:00

And Down The Stretch They Come ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	DBacks	D.Eveland vs D.Hudson	DBacks	62.05%	61.04%	LAN 4-2
STL	HOU	Jaime Garcia vs Wandy Rodriguez	STL	TBD	65.129	TBD
NYA	TB	Hector Noesi vs James Shields	TB	TBD	52.868	TBD
TOR	CHA	Dustin McGowan vs Dylan Axelrod	CHA	TBD	57.01	TBD
CLE	DET	Ubaldo Jimenez vs Doug Fister	DET	TBD	62.767	TBD
TEX	LAA	C.J. Wilson vs Dan Haren	TEX	TBD	57.943	TBD
WAS	FLA	Tommy Milone vs Anibal Sanchez	FLA	TBD	63.216	TBD
PIT	MIL	Charlie Morton vs Shaun Marcum	MIL	TBD	60.223	TBD
KC	MIN	Felipe Paulino vs Kevin Slowey	KC	TBD	50.959	TBD
CIN	NYN	Homer Bailey vs Chris Schwinden	NYN	TBD	50.935	TBD
COL	SF	Jhoulys Chacin vs Ryan Vogelsong	SF	TBD	52.911	TBD
PHI	ATL	Cliff Lee vs Randall Delgado	PHI	TBD	62.161	TBD
CHN	SD	Casey Coleman vs Mat Latos	SD	TBD	61.577	TBD
OAK	SEA	Brandon McCarthy vs Jason Vargas	OAK	TBD	53.8	TBD
BOS	BAL	Josh Beckett vs Tommy Hunter	BOS	TBD	56.978	TBD

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September 25th Simulations

2011-09-24T20:17:00.000-07:00

Cy Finale ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Padres	C.Kershaw vs C.Luebke	Padres	TBD	52.45%	LAN 6-2
Braves	Nationals	M.Minor vs R.Detwiler	Braves	TBD	54.71%	TBD
Royals	White Sox	L.Mendoza vs G.Floyd	White Sox	TBD	59.90%	TBD
Orioles	Tigers	B.Matusz vs B.Penny	Tigers	TBD	55.96%	TBD
Reds	Pirates	D.Willis vs J.McDonald	Pirates	TBD	52.66%	TBD
Athletics	Angels	R.Harden vs J.Pineiro	Angels	TBD	55.09%	TBD
Cubs	Cardinals	R.Wells vs E.Jackson	Cardinals	TBD	70.52%	TBD
Phillies	Mets	R.Halladay vs M.Pelfrey	Phillies	TBD	59.96%	TBD
Blue Jays	Rays	B.Cecil vs W.Davis	Rays	TBD	57.27%	TBD
Red Sox	Yankees	T.Wakefield vs A.Burnett	Yankees	TBD	60.42%	TBD
Red Sox	Yankees	J.Lackey vs I.Nova	Yankees	TBD	60.06%	TBD
Mariners	Rangers	C.Furbush vs D.Holland	Rangers	TBD	76.05%	TBD
Marlins	Brewers	R.Nolasco vs C.Narveson	Brewers	TBD	57.47%	TBD
Giants	DBacks	T.Lincecum vs J.Collmenter	DBacks	TBD	50.24%	TBD
Twins	Indians	L.Hendriks vs F.Carmona	Indians	TBD	58.70%	TBD
Rockies	Astros	K.Millwood vs L.Harrell	Rockies	TBD	57.93%	TBD

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September 16th Simulations

2011-09-15T22:49:00.000-07:00

Dodger Sims is Cruising... No simulations until 9/25 ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Pirates	Dodgers	J.Locke vs H.Kuroda	Dodgers	64.09%	59.13%	TBD
Rangers	Mariners	C.Wilson vs B.Beavan	Rangers	65.10%	67.54%	TBD
TB	BOS	James Shields vs Josh Beckett	BOS	TBD	64.227	TBD
SF	COL	Madison Bumgarner vs Alex White	SF	TBD	51.086	TBD
STL	PHI	Jaime Garcia vs Vance Worley	PHI	TBD	50.504	TBD
NYN	ATL	Chris Capuano vs Derek Lowe	ATL	TBD	57.929	TBD
MIL	CIN	Randy Wolf vs Bronson Arroyo	CIN	TBD	57.018	TBD
HOU	CHN	Wandy Rodriguez vs Matt Garza	CHN	TBD	67.369	TBD
CHA	KC	Phil Humber vs Felipe Paulino	KC	TBD	52.213	TBD
NYA	TOR	C.C. Sabathia vs Brett Cecil	NYA	TBD	64.965	TBD
CLE	MIN	Ubaldo Jimenez vs Kevin Slowey	MIN	TBD	51.428	TBD
DET	OAK	Doug Fister vs Trevor Cahill	DET	TBD	53.284	TBD
FLA	WAS	Javier Vazquez vs John Lannan	WAS	TBD	54.959	TBD
LAA	BAL	Dan Haren vs Tommy Hunter	LAA	TBD	54.674	TBD
ARI	SD	Wade Miley vs Tim Stauffer	SD	TBD	50.635	TBD

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September 15th Simulations

2011-09-15T08:59:00.000-07:00

Road To Nowhere Game ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Pirates	Dodgers	R.Ohlendorf vs D.Eveland	Dodgers	64.29%	54.10%	PIT 6-2
FLA	PHI	Anibal Sanchez vs Kyle Kendrick	PHI	TBD	54.327	TBD
FLA	PHI	Alex Sanabia vs Cliff Lee	PHI	TBD	76.013	TBD
DET	OAK	Max Scherzer vs Brandon McCarthy	OAK	TBD	55.168	TBD
TB	BOS	Jeremy Hellickson vs Kyle Weiland	BOS	TBD	59.831	TBD
WAS	NYN	Tommy Milone vs Chris Schwinden	NYN	TBD	53.337	TBD
SF	COL	Ryan Vogelsong vs Jhoulys Chacin	COL	TBD	61.087	TBD
CLE	TEX	Fausto Carmona vs Alexi Ogando	TEX	TBD	66.563	TBD
CHA	KC	Mark Buehrle vs Jeff Francis	KC	TBD	51.617	TBD
CHN	CIN	Randy Wells vs Homer Bailey	CIN	TBD	63.294	TBD

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September 14th Simulations

2011-09-14T07:33:00.000-07:00

Cy Young Preview Part II ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
DBacks	Dodgers	D.Hudson vs C.Kershaw	Dodgers	56.80%	58.76%	LAN 3-2
CLE	TEX	David Huff vs Derek Holland	TEX	TBD	67.749	TBD
SD	SF	Mat Latos vs Tim Lincecum	SF	TBD	59.395	TBD
DET	CHA	Brad Penny vs Dylan Axelrod	DET	TBD	50.063	TBD
PHI	HOU	Roy Halladay vs Bud Norris	PHI	TBD	67.507	TBD
NYA	SEA	Ivan Nova vs Jason Vargas	NYA	TBD	59.808	TBD
FLA	ATL	Ricky Nolasco vs Randall Delgado	ATL	TBD	53.336	TBD
WAS	NYN	Brad Peacock vs Mike Pelfrey	NYN	TBD	59.21	TBD
TOR	BOS	Ricky Romero vs John Lackey	BOS	TBD	62.148	TBD
TB	BAL	Wade Davis vs Jeremy Guthrie	BAL	TBD	53.913	TBD
COL	MIL	Kevin Millwood vs Shaun Marcum	MIL	TBD	58.431	TBD
MIN	KC	Liam Hendriks vs Luke Hochevar	KC	TBD	56.311	TBD
STL	PIT	Edwin Jackson vs Charlie Morton	STL	TBD	55.771	TBD
LAA	OAK	Jered Weaver vs Rich Harden	LAA	TBD	52.318	TBD
CHN	CIN	Casey Coleman vs Johnny Cueto	CIN	TBD	63.993	TBD

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September 13th Simulations

2011-09-13T07:35:00.000-07:00

Cy Young Preview Part I ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
DBacks	Dodgers	I.Kennedy vs C.Billingsley	DBacks	54.33%	51.35%	ARI 5-4
TB	BAL	David Price vs Alfredo Simon	TB	TBD	54.308	TBD
MIN	KC	Carl Pavano vs Bruce Chen	KC	TBD	51.36	TBD
COL	MIL	Esmil Rogers vs Zach Greinke	MIL	TBD	60.447	TBD
WAS	NYN	Chien-Ming Wang vs Dillon Gee	NYN	TBD	58.113	TBD
SD	SF	Cory Luebke vs Matt Cain	SF	TBD	60.303	TBD
FLA	ATL	Brad Hand vs Mike Minor	ATL	TBD	70.307	TBD
STL	PIT	Chris Carpenter vs Jeff Karstens	STL	TBD	62.605	TBD
CHN	CIN	Ryan Dempster vs Mike Leake	CIN	TBD	53.01	TBD
CLE	TEX	Justin Masterson vs Matt Harrison	TEX	TBD	60.503	TBD
TOR	BOS	Brandon Morrow vs Tim Wakefield	BOS	TBD	59.265	TBD
NYA	SEA	A.J. Burnett vs Charles Furbush	NYA	TBD	61.722	TBD
LAA	OAK	Jerome Williams vs Guillermo Moscoso	OAK	TBD	59.662	TBD
DET	CHA	Justin Verlander vs Gavin Floyd	DET	TBD	54.291	TBD
PHI	HOU	Cole Hamels vs J.A. Happ	PHI	TBD	62.429	TBD

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September 12th Simulations

2011-09-11T23:40:00.000-07:00

Last Call For Playoff-hol ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
DBacks	Dodgers	J.Saunders vs T.Lilly	Dodgers	53.38%	49.96%	ARI 7-2
Angels	Athletics	J.Pineiro vs G.Gonzalez	Athletics	57.72%	62.64%	TBD
Rays	Orioles	J.Niemann vs Z.Britton	Rays	54.23%	40.52%	TBD
Cardinals	Pirates	K.Lohse vs B.Lincoln	Cardinals	54.85%	58.74%	TBD
Padres	Giants	A.Harang vs E.Surkamp	Giants	57.36%	57.31%	TBD
Phillies	Astros	R.Oswalt vs B.Myers	Phillies	62.34%	62.31%	TBD
Marlins	Braves	C.Volstad vs B.Beachy	Braves	67.74%	68.51%	TBD
Cubs	Reds	R.Lopez vs D.Willis	Reds	60.08%	64.78%	TBD
Nats	Mets	R.Detwiler vs R.Dickey	Mets	57.54%	60.77%	TBD
Tigers	White Sox	R.Porcello vs J.Danks	White Sox	52.72%	51.63%	TBD
Yankees	Mariners	P.Hughes vs F.Hernandez	Mariners	51.00%	49.09%	TBD

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September 11th Simulations

2011-09-11T00:24:00.000-07:00

Day Of Rememberance ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Giants	H.Kuroda vs M.Bumgarner	Giants	54.44%	64.83%	SF 8-1
FLA	PIT	Javier Vazquez vs James McDonald	PIT	TBD	55.90%	TBD
SD	ARI	Wade LeBlanc vs Josh Collmenter	ARI	TBD	63.66%	TBD
CHN	NYN	Matt Garza vs Miguel Batista	NYN	TBD	50.72%	TBD
BAL	TOR	Tommy Hunter vs Dustin McGowan	TOR	TBD	52.46%	TBD
PHI	MIL	Vance Worley vs Yovanni Gallardo	PHI	TBD	50.33%	TBD
KC	SEA	Everett Teaford vs Anthony Vasquez	SEA	TBD	52.74%	TBD
ATL	STL	Tim Hudson vs Jake Westbrook	STL	TBD	58.89%	TBD
BOS	TB	Jon Lester vs James Shields	BOS	TBD	55.65%	TBD
CLE	CHA	Ubaldo Jimenez vs Zach Stewart	CLE	TBD	52.15%	TBD
HOU	WAS	Henry Sosa vs Stephen Strasburg	WAS	TBD	70.77%	TBD
OAK	TEX	Rich Harden vs C.J. Wilson	TEX	TBD	70.32%	TBD
MIN	DET	Scott Diamond vs Doug Fister	DET	TBD	68.11%	TBD
NYA	LAA	Freddy Garcia vs Ervin Santana	NYA	TBD	53.08%	TBD
CIN	COL	Edinson Volquez vs Drew Pomeranz	COL	TBD	63.11%	TBD

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Vegas Top 20 Lowest Run Total Games of 2011

2011-09-10T21:31:00.000-07:00

Here is a table listing the Top 20 "lowest" over/under lines from Vegas so far during the 2011 season. Since there is a tie at #20 I have listed the Top 24. Out of those 24 games 14 of them have gone "Over" and 10 of them have gone "Under". Still a rather small sample size to crown Vegas as dumb or smart on this one, but still a good "sniff" test, which Vegas passes. Once again, the thing that amazes me, and maybe it shouldn't, is how many NL West games are in this table (22 out of 24 for those of you keeping track at home).

Date	Visitors	Home	Vis Pitcher	Home Pitcher	Vegas O/U	Actual Runs	Result	Vegas Rank
07-17-2011	SF	SD	Matt Cain	Mat Latos	5.4	7	Over	1
09-09-2011	LAN	SF	Clayton Kershaw	Tim Lincecum	5.5	3	Under	2
05-21-2011	SEA	SD	Michael Pineda	Clayton Richard	5.6	4	Under	3
07-15-2011	SF	SD	Tim Lincecum	Dustin Moseley	5.6	7	Over	3
07-27-2011	ARI	SD	Ian Kennedy	Cory Luebke	5.6	7	Over	3
06-28-2011	ATL	SEA	Tommy Hanson	Michael Pineda	5.6	9	Over	3
06-26-2011	LAA	LAN	Jered Weaver	Clayton Kershaw	5.7	5	Under	7
07-20-2011	LAN	SF	Clayton Kershaw	Tim Lincecum	5.7	1	Under	7
07-16-2011	SF	SD	Barry Zito	Cory Luebke	5.7	14	Over	7
05-21-2011	OAK	SF	Brett Anderson	Tim Lincecum	5.8	3	Under	10
06-02-2011	HOU	SD	Bud Norris	Tim Stauffer	5.8	11	Over	10
09-03-2011	ARI	SF	Ian Kennedy	Tim Lincecum	5.8	9	Over	10
05-22-2011	SEA	SD	Felx Hernandez	Tim Stauffer	5.9	7	Over	13
08-01-2011	LAN	SD	Clayton Kershaw	Cory Luebke	5.9	8	Over	13
07-26-2011	COL	LAN	Jhoulys Chacin	Clayton Kershaw	5.9	5	Under	13
08-29-2011	SD	LAN	Mat Latos	Clayton Kershaw	5.9	5	Under	13
07-05-2011	SD	SF	Tim Stauffer	Matt Cain	5.9	8	Over	13
06-26-2011	ATL	SD	Tim Hudson	Cory Luebke	5.9	5	Under	13
08-02-2011	ARI	SF	Daniel Hudson	Tim Lincecum	5.9	7	Over	13
05-10-2011	PHI	FLA	Roy Halladay	Josh Johnson	6	3	Under	20
08-13-2011	HOU	LAN	Wandy Rodriguez	Clayton Kershaw	6	7	Over	20
08-08-2011	PHI	LAN	Roy Halladay	Hiroki Kuroda	6	8	Over	20
07-02-2011	LAN	LAA	Clayton Kershaw	Jered Weaver	6	8	Over	20
08-24-2011	SD	SF	Tim Stauffer	Tim Lincecum	6	3	Under	20

September 10th Simulations

2011-09-10T09:02:00.000-07:00

Eveland Of The Lost ...

Visitors	Home	Probable Pitching Matchup	Favorite	Vegas Win Prob	Simulator Win Prob	Final Score
Dodgers	Giants	D.Eveland vs R.Vogelsong	Giants	58.33%	65.39%	LAN 3-0
BAL	TOR	Rick VandenHurk vs Henderson Alvarez	TOR	TBD	52.992	TBD
SD	ARI	Tim Stauffer vs Wade Miley	ARI	TBD	61.885	TBD
HOU	WAS	Wandy Rodriguez vs John Lannan	WAS	TBD	59.804	TBD
MIN	DET	Anthony Swarzak vs Max Scherzer	DET	TBD	64.649	TBD
CIN	COL	Bronson Arroyo vs Alex White	COL	TBD	59.241	TBD
CLE	CHA	Fausto Carmona vs Phil Humber	CHA	TBD	56.166	TBD
NYA	LAA	C.C. Sabathia vs Dan Haren	NYA	TBD	57.177	TBD
KC	SEA	Felipe Paulino vs Michael Pineda	SEA	TBD	54.503	TBD
FLA	PIT	Anibal Sanchez vs Jeff Locke	FLA	TBD	53.874	TBD
CHN	NYN	Randy Wells vs Chris Capuano	NYN	TBD	63.723	TBD
OAK	TEX	Trevor Cahill vs Alexi Ogando	TEX	TBD	63.387	TBD
BOS	TB	Kyle Weiland vs Jeremy Hellickson	BOS	TBD	50.75	TBD
PHI	MIL	Cliff Lee vs Randy Wolf	PHI	TBD	57.028	TBD
ATL	STL	Derek Lowe vs Jaime Garcia	STL	TBD	66.521	TBD

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