tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20896614.post5781327241148433582..comments2024-03-26T02:18:13.696-07:00Comments on Dodger Sims: How Important Is Playoff Home Field Advantage For The DodgersUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20896614.post-55719813493364750882013-09-05T16:03:41.496-07:002013-09-05T16:03:41.496-07:00Anon, that is a fair point and thanks for the thou...Anon, that is a fair point and thanks for the thoughtful comment. But there are a lot of assumptions you could make. You just don't know how the WC teams rotation at the end will shake out. Plus they have a day off before the WC game and a day off afterwards.<br /><br />So I took a situation where the WC used up their #2 starter in the WC game and reran the numbers. Instead of a 1v1, 2v2, 3v3, 4v4 starting pitcher matchup for the 7 game series, I used a 1v3, 2v1, 3v4, 4v2 and it bumped up the Dodgers chances of winning the NLDS by 3.63%. So I changed their 64% chance of winning the NLDS to 67.63% and it raised their chances of winning the World Series to 21.47%.<br /><br />So you have the...<br />19.43% with ATL having HFA<br />20.32% previous LAD having HFA<br />21.47% new LAD having HFA<br /><br />So, just over a 2% increase in odds. You can probably take worse case scenario and increase this by a fraction and you can take best case and drop it by a little bit. So I'd take a swag that the range is from 1.5% to 2.5% increase in chances of winning the World Series by having the #1 seed over the #2 seed.<br /><br />Xeifrankhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15904090174534262598noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20896614.post-91383801932046566032013-09-05T14:02:13.360-07:002013-09-05T14:02:13.360-07:00The problem with this analysis is that it assumes ...The problem with this analysis is that it assumes a constant 64 percent chance of winning the NLDS, regardless of which team is the top seed. It should be clear that the chances of winning the NLDS are significantly greater if you are the top seed playing the wild card team, which played two days earlier and probably burned their top pitcher to win the wild card game, than if you are the second seed playing another well-rested division winner who was able to set up their playoff rotation the same way you do.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com