Saturday, May 17, 2014

Top 20 Games With The Largest Favorites


I found the Top 20 games that had the largest Vegas favorite this season as I was curious to see which teams and or pitchers frequented the list. The Astros(9), Cubs(4) and Twins(3) were the teams that showed up the most on the losing side with the Tigers(6), Athletics(3) and Cardinals(3) showing up the most on the favored side. No pitcher on the favored side shows up more than twice (Verlander, Tanaka, Scherzer, Wainwright). A win expectancy of 73.28% was the largest favorite we have seen so far when Jarred Cossart and the Astros lost to Justin Verlander and the Tigers by the score of 2-0. In these 20 games (SSS) the favorites did very well. You'd expect them to win around 13 or 14 of the 20 games but they won 16 of them for an 80% winning percentage. Of course 20 games is a tiny sample so there is nothing out of the ordinary for winning 16 out of these 20 games. Anyways, most of the fun is just in the list... and here it is.

DateAwayHomeAway SPHome SPVegas FaveML FaveML DogVegas Win ExpResult
5/5/2014HOUDETJarred CosartMax ScherzerDET-27025472.38DET 2-0
4/21/2014HOUSEADallas KeuchelFelix HernandezSEA-26224771.79HOU 7-2
4/20/2014HOUOAKBrad PeacockJesse ChavezOAK-25523571.01OAK 4-1
4/22/2014CHADETChris LeesmanJustin VerlanderDET-25023070.59DET 8-6
5/9/2014MINDETPhil HughesJustin VerlanderDET-23522569.70MIN 2-1
5/7/2014HOUDETBrad PeacockRick PorcelloDET-23022069.23DET 3-2
5/10/2014MINDETKyle GibsonMax ScherzerDET-22821869.04DET 9-3
4/11/2014HOUTEXScott FeldmanYu DarvishTEX-22521568.75TEX 1-0
5/13/2014CHNSTLJake ArrietaAdam WainwrightSTL-23021068.75STL 4-3
4/10/2014MIAWASTom KoehlerStephen StrasburgWAS-21620667.85WAS 7-1
4/10/2014HOUTORDallas KeuchelR.A. DickeyTOR-21520567.74HOU 6-4
4/13/2014CHNSTLEdwin JacksonMichael WachaSTL-21520567.74STL 6-4
4/12/2014CHNSTLCarlos VillanuevaAdam WainwrightSTL-21320367.53STL 10-4
4/19/2014HOUOAKBrad OberholtzerScott KazmirOAK-21519567.21OAK 4-3
4/18/2014HOUOAKJarred CosartSonny GrayOAK-20019066.10OAK 11-3
4/22/2014MINTBKyle GibsonDavid PriceTB-20318766.10TB 7-3
4/9/2014MIAWASBrad HandJordan ZimmermannWAS-20218565.93WAS 10-7
4/16/2014CHNNYAJason HammelMasahiro TanakaNYA-20018565.81NYA 3-0
5/8/2014HOUDETDallas KeuchelDrew SmylyDET-19718865.81HOU 6-2
5/3/2014TBNYAJake OdorizziMasahiro TanakaNYA-19518765.64NYA 9-3

Saturday's MLB Vegas Numbers


AwayHomeAway PitcherHome PitcerFaveMLMLWin %O/UOver VigUnder VigExp Runs
LANARIClayton KershawChase AndersonLAN-15815360.868105-1157.76
NYNWASBartolo ColonGio GonzalazWAS-15014559.607.5117-1277.10
TBLAACarlos RamosC.J. WilsonLAA-14313858.428.5100-1108.33
MIASFTom KoehlerTim LincecumSF-14113658.077.5112-1227.16
OAKCLEScott KazmirJosh TomlinOAK-13513056.997.5-1131037.52
SDCOLRobbie ErlinJordan LylesCOL-13312856.629.5-108-1029.44
PITNYAEdinson VolquezDavid PhelpsNYA-12712255.469105-1158.76
BALKCBud NorrisDanny DuffyKC-12411954.857.5100-1107.33
DETBOSRick PorcelloJohn LackeyBOS-12311854.658.5107-1178.23
CINPHIHomer BaileyCole HamelsPHI-11911453.817.5-105-1057.40
ATLSTLAaron HarangShelby MillerSTL-11811353.607-1151057.04
MILCHNMatt GarzaEdwin JacksonMIL-11711253.387.5-115-1057.47
CHAHOUHector NoesiJarred CosartHOU-11511052.949112-1228.66
SEAMINRoenis EliasSamuel DedunoMIN-11010551.818104-1147.77
TORTEXMark BuehrleRobbie RossTEX-105-10550.009-115-1058.97

Notes: Table sorted by largest favorite

Friday, May 16, 2014

What Does The Leverage Index Look Like

.
Leverage index was a statistic invented by Tom Tango that measures the importance or pressure of a situation in a baseball game. An average leverage index is 1.0 and anything higher than that indicates that the current state is an above average pressure situation. I used my simulator to determine what the average leverage index was for when there were 0, 1 and 2 outs in any inning of a game. I then used the simulator to also determine the average leverage index for each half inning of a game. The results are below. For these simulations I used a few random games so results could be slightly different running other games but the trends should be similar.  The results are that you generally see higher leverage situations the lower the number of outs are and you also tend to see higher leverage situations later in the games.  Those conclusions may be obvious but at least you can get a visual image of it.  Five millions games were simulated.

Table 1
Average Leverage Index Based on Outs State
OutsAverage LI
01.159
11.083
20.952

Table 2
Average Leverage Index Based on Half Inning of Game (0=Top of first, 1=Bottom of first etc...)
InningAverage LI
00.913
10.906
20.897
30.902
40.909
50.930
60.970
70.996
80.990
91.009
101.038
111.065
121.065
131.085
141.091
151.164
161.123
171.968
182.437
192.727

Graph of Table 2

.

Friday's MLB Vegas Numbers


AwayHomeAway PitcherHome PitcherFaveMLMLWin %O/UOver VigUnder VigExp Runs
TORTEXDrew HutchisonYu DarvishTEX-16615961.908.5100-1108.33
SDCOLEric StultsJorge de la RosaCOL-15314860.0810.5-105-10510.40
LANARIZack GreinkeWade MileyLAN-13812857.088.5-1051158.54
TBLAAChris ArcherJered WeaverLAA-13513056.998-1101007.97
MIASFHenderson AlvarezYusmeiro PetitSF-13612656.717.5105-1257.19
NYNWASJonathan NieseTanner RoarkWAS-13112656.247-105-1056.90
OAKCLESonny GrayZach McAllisterOAK-12712255.467.5105-1157.26
PITNYAEdinson VolquezDavid PhelpsNYA-12311854.658.5-1151058.54
MILCHNKyle LohseJeff SamardzijaCHN-11110652.046.5-110-1106.40
CINPHIAlfredo SimonKyle KendrickCIN-11010551.818-1161068.06
ATLSTLErvin SantanaLance LynnSTL-10910451.577117-1276.60
CHAHOUJose QuintanaCollin McHughHOU-10810351.348-1201108.11
SEAMINChris YoungKyle GibsonMIN-10710251.108-1101007.97
DETBOSMax ScherzerJon LesterBOS-10510050.628110-1207.69
BALKCChris TillmanJeremy GuthrieBAL-104-10150.378102-1127.80

Notes: Table sorted by largest Vegas favorite.

Saturday, May 10, 2014

How Is Vegas Doing On Park Factors?


Below is a table showing each teams actual park factor (runs) and the Vegas park factor which is calculated by reverse engineering their over/unders for each game and using that as a proxy for actual runs scored for each game. The table is sorted by which actual park factor is closest to the Vegas park factor. The teams at the top of the list are playing in a run environment at home close to where the betting public is predicting it to be. The teams at the bottom of the list are having a lot of random variation when it comes to their home park run environment so far in this young season. Small sample sizes and regression to the mean are at play here but it is interesting to see how things are shaping up so far with the empirical data.

TeamActual PFVegas PFDelta
Dodgers0.9920.9980.005
Reds1.1181.0820.036
Padres0.9450.9080.037
Twins0.9410.9780.037
Mets0.7910.8470.056
Rangers1.0091.0650.056
DBacks1.0131.0710.058
Braves0.9220.9810.059
White Sox1.0350.9620.073
Phillies0.8270.9100.083
Marlins1.1361.0340.103
Giants0.8490.9510.103
A's0.7830.8880.106
Indians0.9071.0140.106
Blue Jays1.2191.1030.116
Tigers0.9301.0600.130
Pirates1.0470.9120.136
Rockies1.4731.3210.152
Yankees0.8721.0370.165
Cubs1.1670.9930.174
Mariners0.7380.9310.192
Rays1.1230.9270.195
Nats0.7730.9880.215
Red Sox1.2481.0210.227
Royals1.2851.0520.233
Astros1.2611.0200.241
Angels1.2530.9640.288
Orioles0.6941.0170.324
Brewers0.6671.0560.388
Cardinals1.3750.9740.402

Friday, May 09, 2014

Giants vs Dodgers - Friday's Simulation Results


AwayHomeAway PitcherHome PitcherFavoriteAway RSHome RSWin %Total Runs
GiantsDodgersMadison BumgarnerPaul MaholmGiants4.004083.2891755.4487.29325



                                 Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankGiantsDodgersOccurrencesRankGiantsDodgersOccurrences
12342595147586
21237065205572
33436995337563
43234065457559
52129285576533
64326935627506
73126885784504
84225685880467
94525005993462
104122876092454
111322006191445
125319596217421
130119586306400
142419586485388
155219356538375
165117976678372
175417796728345
183017136886320
192016086994316
201015737048287
213515387190287
221415297218280
2356148173102276
2402146174101273
256314517568266
266214377695264
2740143377103260
282513957858256
296113297907252
305012228087249
316412128139243
3203113682104230
336510888329214
3472108484100212
357110178596199
36159808619175
37469738749173
38609668808167
397393889111166
40369179089164
412687391105154
42048209259152
437480693112150
446773994113146
45827199569144
46817099697142
477067797110142
481667698310140
498367399210131
5075661100114119

Thursday, May 08, 2014

Giants vs Dodgers - Thursday's Simulation Results


AwayHomeAway PitcherHome PitcherFavoriteAway RSHome RSWin %Total Runs
GiantsDodgersRyan VogelsongJosh BeckettDodgers3.288154.0638261.1047.35197

                                 Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankGiantsDodgersOccurrencesRankGiantsDodgersOccurrences
12347235174618
23440285257590
31239635338576
43228555475560
51327755550550
62427275671479
74525195776471
82124665848455
94324325929427
101423506008416
112520696182414
124220506284409
130120176360404
143119526419390
150219366578390
160319076639379
173518386758378
181517326883374
195416706985332
200415887081308
215315567109307
225615477249304
234114507386292
245214157468288
2536135675210284
2626135176110267
271612877794257
281012397870248
290512177993247
302011718092236
3146114281310234
326310808259230
336510738387219
345110408491197
3527101285410191
3664101286211189
373098287010185
380693788111185
39629268989184
40179249095183
41378609169177
42678499296161
434777593103161
444076294311157
45617129597151
467370496102144
471866297510140
487266098104138
49076599980134
5028647100610128

Disclaimer: Game simulated 100K times.

Thursday's MLB Vegas Numbers



AwayHomeAway PitcherHome PitcherFaveMLMLWin %O/UOver VigUnder VigExp Runs
HOUDETDallas KeuchelDrew SmylyDET-19718865.818.5-106-1048.41
BALTBUbaldo JimenezDavid PriceTB-17016362.487.5115-1257.13
MINCLEKevin CorreiaJustin MastersonCLE-16916262.348110-1207.69
MIASDJacob TurnerIan KennedySD-14814359.277113-1236.65
SFLANRyan VogelsongJosh BeckettLAN-14814359.277.5107-1177.23
KCSEADanny DuffyHisashi IwakumaSEA-12812355.657-1151057.04
COLTEXFranklin MoralesMatt HarrisonTEX-12612155.269.5-1121029.50
PHITORA.J. BurnettR.A. DickeyTOR-12211754.448.5-1251158.67
CHNCHAJake ArrietaSteve CarrollCHA-11811353.608.5-1251158.67

Source: Opening lines from 5Dimes.com

Notes: Table sorted by largest favorite

Tuesday, May 06, 2014

Wednesday's Vegas Numbers


AwayHomeAway PitcherHome PitcherFaveMLMLWin %O/UOver VigUnder VigExp Run Total
HOUDETBrad PeacockRick PorcelloDET-23022069.238.5-1101008.47
MINCLERicky NolascoDennis SalazarCLE-15615160.558102-1127.80
CINBOSMike LeakeJake PeavyBOS-14113658.078.5101-1118.31
ARIMILBronson ArroyoWily PeraltaMIL-13813357.548-1101007.97
LANWASDan HarenStephen StrasburgWAS-13713257.366.5-1201106.61
BALTBBud NorrisCarlos RamosTB-13412956.807.5-108-1027.44
SFPITTim LincecumGarrit ColePIT-13012556.047-107-1036.93
NYALAAVic NunoHector SantiagoLAA-12812355.658.5-1101008.47
COLTEXJorge de la RosaColby LewisTEX-12512055.069.5105-1159.26
STLATLAdam WainwrightMike MinorSTL-12011554.026.5-1201106.61
CHNCHATravis WoodJohn DanksCHA-11911453.818-1151058.04
SEAOAKFelix HernandezDaniel StrailySEA-11811353.607-105-1056.90
NYNMIAZack WheelerTom KoehlerMIA-11511052.947.5100-1107.33
KCSDJames ShieldsAndrew CashnerSD-10610150.866.5115-1256.13
PHITORCliff LeeMark BuehrleTOR-10510050.627.5-1251157.67

Note: Table sorted by largest favorite to win game.

Sunday, May 04, 2014

Dodgers vs Nationals - Monday's Simulation Results


AwayHomeAway PitcherHome PitcherFavoriteAway RSHome RSWin %Total Runs
DodgersNationalsZach GreinkeJordan ZimmermannDodgers3.453.1951.68%6.64

                                 Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankDodgersNatsOccurrencesRankDodgersNatsOccurrences
11247125167500
22346945247494
33237045370475
42136175482461
53434835581457
63130645676431
74327855783414
84227745828399
90125855907380
101325556057375
114123466184370
122022456218344
132421876338336
144521876480329
151021506592315
160219726648309
173019326785294
185218986891280
195318296993271
201418127008266
215417517178233
225116597286229
234015977390226
243515127458225
250314747519224
262514267629212
271513347739211
285612387894206
2963119979102205
300411928049190
316211598168173
325011368287171
3361108583101167
346499384103149
35369708509147
36269228659147
37168828795146
386587588210132
394683689310126
40058249096124
416078991104118
427273492112118
437167993110115
44736699489115
457459795100113
462758096113104
470655597111100
48175499841099
4937542996996
50755301009795

Note: 100,000 games were simulated.

Sunday's Vegas Numbers


Vegas odds sorted by largest win expectancy

AwayHomeAway PitcherHome PitcherFaveMLMLWin %O/UOver VigUnder VigExp Runs
LANMIAStephen FifeJose FernandezMIA-16816162.197-1221127.14
CHACLEAndre RienzoCorey KluberCLE-15314860.088.5-105-1058.40
TBNYAEric BedardCC SabathiaNYA-15214759.929-1101008.97
NYNCOLDillon GeeJhoulys ChacinCOL-14313858.4210-12011010.11
STLCHNLance LynnJason HammelSTL-13613157.177-110-1106.90
WASPHIGio GonzalezRoberto HernandezWAS-13612656.718-110-1107.90
SFATLMadison BumgarnerAlex WoodATL-13312856.627100-1106.83
TORPITDustin McGowanEdinson VolquezPIT-12211754.448-1131038.02
MILCINKyle LohseAlfredo SimonCIN-12111654.237.5112-1227.16
DETKCJustin VerlanderJason VargasDET-12011554.028-103-1077.87
TEXLAAYu DarvishTyler SkaggsTEX-11410952.727.5100-1107.33
ARISDWade MileyTyson RossSD-11410952.727112-1226.66
BALMINMiguel GonzalezPhil HughesMIN-10810351.348.5-105-1058.40
SEAHOUBrandon MauerCharles McHughHOU-10710251.108.5100-1108.33
OAKBOSSonny GrayJohn LackeyOAK-10610150.868.5-108-1028.44

Source: 5dimes.com

Saturday, May 03, 2014

Dodgers vs Marlins - Saturday's Simulation Results


Simulation Results...
AwayHomeAway PitcherHome PitcherFavoriteAway RSHome RSWin %Total Runs
DodgersMarlinsPaul MaholmJacob TurnerDodgers4.885944.0429156.0978.92885

Box Score...


                                    Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankDodgersMarlinsOccurrencesRankDodgersMarlinsOccurrences
12329955185708
23428965278704
34525935337701
44324985427675
53224595581660
61221675660658
74221095792650
85420865893623
92118655904612
105318526086562
112418266158561
125217566294557
135617546348553
143117526470547
153517316587532
164116086691531
171315356738522
186315196817513
196514746905486
206414487068485
212514017195474
226213587228468
2351132173102437
241413117480415
2536124075101414
2646121276103407
2774115877104387
286711417896375
297311087989350
307210618039343
316110318118342
327510028297338
33269558349337
34209278406333
353092385105316
360191386113311
371590587112304
38768958890301
39408658959297
40718649069290
41838419198282
42828299207273
435781593106271
44028069429270
451080495114253
464779696111247
470377997115233
488476298124230
49507149979226
5016712100310224

Disclaimer: Based off of 100K simulations with input statistics from Fangraphs Zips(U)

Friday, May 02, 2014

Pros/Cons of a 40-pitch scoreless first inning


Beyond The Boxscore and Tom Tango asked the following question.

Would you rather be down 1 run, with your starting pitcher having thrown no more than 10 pitches, or would you rather throw a scoreless inning, but your starting pitcher having thrown at least 40 pitches?

To me it kind of seemed like a no brainer. I would rather keep the run off the board. So I put my simulator to the test to see what it thought. My simulator has an engine that worsens pitcher performance based on the number of pitches thrown. It is a good proxy for times through the batting order. Both have an effect on how a pitcher usually gets worse as the game goes on.

What I did is take a game between the Dodgers and Twins early in the week where Zack Greinke pitched against Kyle Gibson. First off, I simulated the game from the very beginning to set a baseline for how often the Dodgers should win this game and how long and how well Zack Greinke pitches. Next, I set the game state to the top of the second inning with the first batter of the inning up. I tell the simulator that the Dodgers number five hitter leads off the 2nd inning and the Twins number six hitter leads off the bottom half. These settings are then kept constant for the remaining trials.

Results: Dodgers win 62.793%, Greinke pitches an average of 6.598 innings with an average FIP of 3.108

The next simulation is with Greinke having made 10 first inning pitches and the Twins starter 15. The score is 1-0 Twins and then 100K games are simulated. So in this simulation the Dodgers are starting the 2nd inning down one run but Greinke starts the inning only having made 10 first inning pitches.

Results: Twins win 50.161%, Greinke pitches an average of 6.875 innings with an average FIP (2nd inning on) of 3.118

Up next I ran the simulation with Greinke having made 40 pitches in the first inning but not having given up a run. So the score is tied 0-0 in the top of the 2nd. The Dodgers have a pretty good bullpen on paper (projection systems) and some of their long reliever options are not terrible.

Results: Dodgers win 60.047%, Greinke pitches an average of 4.969 innings with an average FIP (2nd inning on) of 3.162

Then for fun I had Greinke throw both an 80 and a 100 pitch first inning with the score tied 0-0 heading in to the second inning. Those results are below. I think the one run hole that the away team is put in is a much much larger hole than a first inning where a starting pitcher throws 40 vs 10 pitches. And of course the difference will be a little bit different for each team based on the differences in talent level of the starting pitcher and the bullpen, namely the long reliever. My study just looks at one game but the nearly two innings lost from the starting pitcher will have an impact on the next couple of games as the bullpen will be tired and perhaps a few of them unavailable to pitch the next game. So you can take my results and adjust for those things I just mentioned but I think it is more than safe to say that for a one time deal, the 40 pitch no run first inning is a much better scenario for the Dodgers.

RemarksAwayHomeAway PitcherHome PitcherFaveAway RunsHome RunsWin %Total RunsGreinke IPGreinke FIP
Full 9 inningsLANMINZach GreinkeKyle GibsonLAN4.4903.14262.7937.6326.5983.108
Greinke 10 pitch 1 run first inningLANMINZach GreinkeKyle GibsonMIN3.9333.71950.1617.6526.8753.118
Greinke 40 pitch 0 run first inningLANMINZach GreinkeKyle GibsonLAN3.9572.94160.0476.8984.9693.162
Greinke 80 pitch 0 run first inningLANMINZach GreinkeKyle GibsonLAN3.9523.01659.1756.9682.5693.236
Greinke 100 pitch 0 run first inningLANMINZach GreinkeKyle GibsonLAN3.9483.14957.4257.0971.6403.499