Tuesday, April 29, 2014

Tuesday's Dodgers vs Twins Simulation Results


AwayHomeAway PitcherHome PitcherFaveAway RSHome RSWin %Total Runs
DodgersTwinsZach GreinkeKyle GibsonDodgers4.232663.1771659.5077.40982

                              Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankDodgersTwinsOccurrencesRankDodgersTwinsOccurrences
12337925184602
21235065276568
33232705380560
43432415491557
52129785505542
64326655647535
73126645737531
84225205892513
94123425985480
104521626057465
115220146193463
125319656227448
135119366390386
1413190364102380
155418536594379
163018066617368
172417876778364
182017796806357
190117546986326
2040174570103326
211016147128323
2262159472101308
236115317395306
245015027438299
256314517548299
261414477687290
273513547758276
285613487818266
290213247968246
3025126580104234
3164121381100233
327211798207231
3360108383111227
347110808496222
3573104685112199
3665103086113195
37039718729190
38159348839180
393689889105180
40468799089167
41748579149163
42828299219156
43708179369152
442680794114149
458177895121144
460477796110143
47837429797142
48677399808140
497571799106134
501660310059133

Sunday, April 27, 2014

Monday's MLB Vegas Numbers


Monday's Vegas Numbers (Sorted by largest favorites)
AwayHomeAway PitcherHome PitcherFaveMLMLWin %O.UOver VigUnder VigExp Runs
MILSTLYovani GallardoMichael WachaSTL-16215761.467115-1256.63
SDSFTyson RossMadison BumgarnerSF-15515060.406.5100-1106.33
CHNCINJeff SamardzijaAlfredo SimonCIN-14914459.437-1101006.97
OAKTEXSonny GrayYu DarvishTEX-14313858.427.5105-1157.26
COLARIFranklin MoralesWade MileyARI-12712255.469115-1258.63
CLELAAJustin MastersonTyler SkaggsLAA-12311854.658105-1157.76
TBCHAJake OdorizziAnthony RienzoTB-12011554.029102-1128.80

Source: 5Dimes

Sunday's MLB Vegas Numbers


Vegas odds for Sunday's games sorted by highest win probability.

AwayHomeAway PitcherHome PitcherFaveMLMLWin %O/UOver VigUnder VigExp Runs
COLLANJorge de la RosaHyun-Jin RyuLAN-17917263.707.5117-1277.10
PITSTLEdinson VolquezAdam WainwrightSTL-17316662.896.5-1201106.61
TBCHADavid PriceScott CarrollTB-15915461.018-105-1057.90
LAANYAGarrett RichardsMasahiro TanakaNYA-15915461.018-105-1057.90
CHNMILJason HammelWily PeraltaMIL-15715260.717.5-102-1087.36
DETMINJustin VerlanderKyle GibsonDET-15014559.608108-1187.72
OAKHOUTommy MiloneChuck McHughOAK-13112656.249100-1108.83
MIANYNToby KoehlerDillon GeeNYN-11711253.387-108-1026.94
KCBALJames ShieldsMiguel GonzalezKC-11711253.388-105-1057.90
TEXSEAMatt HarrisonBrandon MauerSEA-11210752.277.5105-1157.26
CINATLJohnny CuetoJulio TeheranATL-10810351.346.5-106-1046.41
CLESFDennis SalazarRyan VogelsongCLE-10810351.348.5108-1188.22
SDWASIan KennedyTyler JordanWAS-10710251.107.5103-1137.28
BOSTORJon LesterR.A. DickeyBOS-10610150.868.5-1141048.53
PHIARIA.J. BurnettBrandon McCarthyPHI-103-10250.129.5112-1229.16

Source: 5Dimes

Friday, April 25, 2014

Friday's MLB Vegas Numbers


AwayHomeAway PitcherHome PitcherFaveMLMLWin %O/UOver VigUnder VigExp Runs
LAANYAC.J. WilsonHiroki KurodaNYA-12011053.498-105-1157.83
KCBALYorbi VenturaUbaldo JimenezBAL-105-10550.008.5100-1208.26
SDWASRobbie ErlinStephen StrasburgWAS-19018064.916.5-1301106.67
BOSTORJake PeavyMark BuehrleTOR-11610652.619-110-1108.90
MIANYNHugo AlvarezZack WheelerNYN-11410452.157100-1206.76
CINATLHomer BaileyErvin SantanaATL-14013057.457-115-1056.97
CHNMILCarlos VillanuevaMatt GarzaMIL-17716763.248-115-1057.97
DETMINRick PorcelloKevin CorreiaDET-12511554.558.5-110-1108.40
OAKHOUJesse ChavezBrad PeacockOAK-17116162.419-105-1158.83
TBCHAClay ArcherEric JohnsonTB-13612656.718.5-115-1058.47
PITSTLGerrit ColeShelby MillerSTL-11010051.227-1251057.11
PHIARIRoberto HernandezJosh CollmenterARI-13312356.149-1201009.04
COLLANJordan LylesJosh BeckettLAN-14313357.987.5105-1257.19
TEXSEARobbie RossRoenis EliasTEX-11510552.387-1251057.11
CLESFCarlos CarrascoTim HudsonSF-14413458.167.5-105-1157.33

Source: 5dimes

Thursday, April 24, 2014

Thursday's MLB Vegas Numbers


Thursday's Vegas numbers sorted by largest favorite.

AwayHomeAway PitcherHome PitcherFaveMLMLWin %O/U Over VigUnder VigExp Runs
CHADETJose QuintanaMax ScherzerDET-19118465.228105-1157.76
PHILANKyle KendrickDan HarenLAN-17116462.627.5112-1227.16
SDWASEric StultsJordan ZimmermannWAS-16215761.467.5106-1167.24
OAKHOUScott KazmirBrad OberholtzerOAK-15815360.867.5-1221127.64
MINTBRicky NolascoEric BedardTB-14814359.278.5-105-1058.40
BALTORBud NorrisDrew HutchisonTOR-13813357.549102-1128.80
STLNYNLance LynnBartolo ColonSTL-13713257.367-1101006.97
ARICHNMichael BolsingerEdwin JacksonCHN-11811353.6010.5-105-11510.33
CINPITTony CinganiBrian CumptonCIN-11510552.387-115-1056.97
NYABOSCC SabathiaFelix DoubrontBOS-11210752.278.5-1121028.50
.
.

Monday, April 21, 2014

Phillies vs Dodgers - Monday's Simulation Results


                                           *** Simulation Results ***

AwayHomeAway SPHome SPFavoriteAway RS/GHome RS/GWin %Total Runs
PhilliesDodgersCliff LeePaul MaholmDodgers3.403.4552.966.85

                                    Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankPhilliesDodgersOccurrencesRankPhilliesDodgersOccurrences
12348805147571
21245165275514
33437005382489
43234145457480
52132845528471
60127705681452
74326915770436
81325945807423
93125325984422
102423856076417
114523616183412
124223586218388
130221656338377
144120166448326
151419726585325
161018036678320
172017826792299
185317736829292
190317186958289
202517187008288
215216917193288
223516317219283
235416297391277
243015697480256
251513877539248
265113467686241
270413437794231
285613217868219
294012237949216
3062117480102195
316311248187188
323610668209183
332610448390177
346497184101168
356196685110166
36469598695166
37509538759160
380592888210159
396590289310158
40168939096149
417275291410147
427370892104138
43676719369132
44746719489130
457166595103129
46606619697114
472765697112114
483764598010112
490663699111108
5017583100100101

Notes: Based off of 100K simulations

Sunday, April 20, 2014

Monday's MLB Vegas Numbers


AwayHomeAway PitcherHome PitcherFaveMLMLWin %O/UOver VigUnder VigExp Runs
HOUSEADallas KeuchelFelix HernandezSEA-26224771.796.5100-1106.33
CHADETJohn DanksAnibal SanchezDET-18017363.838100-1107.83
MIAATLTom KoehlerJulio TeheranATL-17016362.487-105-1056.90
BALBOSWei-Yin ChenClay BuchholzBOS-15815360.868.5-1101008.47
KCCLEJeremy GuthrieZach McAllisterCLE-14213758.258-1001107.97
CINPITMike LeakeFrancisco LirianoPIT-13613157.177107-1176.73
TEXOAKYu DarvishDan StrailyTEX-13613157.176.5-105-1056.40
SFCOLRyan VogelsongJorge de la RosaCOL-13212756.4310.5102-11210.30
ARICHNBronson ArroyoTravis WoodCHN-12512055.06
PHILANCliff LeePaul MaholmLAN-11310852.497-1101006.97
STLNYNTyler LyonsJenrry MejiaSTL-11010551.817.5105-1157.26
LAAWASGarrett RichardsTanner RoarkWAS-10810351.348110-1207.69
SDMILAndrew CashnerWily PeraltaMIL-10810351.347.5105-1157.26


Source: 5dimes

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers - Sunday's Simulation Results


                                                 *** Simulation Results ***

AwayHomeAway PitcherHome PitcherFavoriteRuns/GameRuns/GameWin %Total R/G
DbacksDodgersJosh CollmenterJosh BeckettDodgers3.436613.9054558.1487.34206

                                  Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankDbacksDodgersOccurrencesRankDbacksDodgersOccurrences
12346415175620
23439995276601
31238705307570
43229545471552
51327505528522
64527465618506
72427445783506
84325825838488
92125105960484
101422486084438
114220836182434
122520276258396
133520086348395
143119826485380
150118686581370
160218446608369
170318226778362
185417836829356
195317406970343
205617017019329
211516377186323
224116317239316
235215437393303
240414837468292
253613207587290
262612807649277
2710120677210256
282011807894256
291611487992246
305111358091231
310511258109224
324611018295222
336310878359221
3464108784110214
356510678580208
3662104986310181
373010478796180
382789488103164
396184989102163
40068379089159
411782691104150
423781292410147
43678009369147
444078394105141
454773795010137
46737129679134
477270797101134
48746959897131
49506309998127
5057620100211125

Saturday, April 19, 2014

Current Park Factors - Both Actual and Vegas


Park factors may not be that interesting to most people and especially this early in the season when there is so much noise involved in them. But something that I think is interesting is the Vegas park factors that I have calculated. Park factors are determined by calculating how many runs/game are scored in away and home games for each team. This can be calculated easy enough just by keeping track of how many away and home games each team plays and how many runs were scored in those games. In calculating the Vegas park factors I substitute the actual runs scored in each game with how many runs, Vegas or the betting public who are actually risking money on the results, expect to be scored. This can be easily calulated/estimated by tracking the "run total" for each game and the over/under vig. Below is a table sorted by actual current park factors but I also list the current Vegas park factor.

TeamActual PFVegas PF
Braves1.710.98
Rays1.580.95
Cardinals1.520.97
Rockies1.471.42
Red Sox1.451.04
Cubs1.431.11
Dodgers1.400.94
Angels1.280.96
Tigers1.201.14
Blue Jays1.121.08
Marlins1.050.96
Astros1.041.01
Rangers1.021.05
White Sox0.980.87
Reds0.981.04
Royals0.971.01
Mets0.910.87
Phillies0.910.85
Pirates0.900.89
Dbacks0.901.03
Twins0.871.03
Indians0.851.01
A's0.830.94
Padres0.830.89
Giants0.820.98
Yankees0.761.04
Nats0.641.00
Mariners0.630.95
Orioles0.581.03
Brewers0.451.04

Diamondbacks vs Dodgers - Simulation Results (Saturday 4/19)


                                                     *** Simulation Results ***

AwayHomeAway SPHome SPFavoriteDbacks RSDodgers RSDodgers %Total Runs
DbacksDodgersMichael BolsingerDan HarenDodgers3.162293.8336460.4176.99593

                                     Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankDbacksDodgersOccurrencesRankDbacksDodgersOccurrences
12347365150588
21243335218538
33438895375532
41331505457507
53230755571505
62428135638479
72127215708449
84526025876446
94325455983424
101425146082411
110123646160410
120321766229399
134221246348372
140220996419343
153120546584341
162520196678323
173519446758321
181519046885285
190417736939282
205417567081267
215316297193248
224115747270247
235214637368241
245614547486236
251013477549233
260513437692233
272613357709232
282013227887231
2916131979210222
303612698094210
3146111181110202
325110578295187
3330105283310184
3463102884010173
356410088591173
36659598680170
37279448759168
38069358896139
396292989410134
401792690111133
41408419189132
423779492104131
436172393211129
446771194102128
45476659569124
46736369697122
472861397103118
487260798105116
497460799101113
5007589100311109

Saturday's MLB Vegas Numbers


AwayHomeAway PitcherHome PitcherFaveMLMLWin %O/UOver VigUnder VigExp Runs
STLWASLance LynnJordan ZimmermannWAS-12011053.497105-1256.69
TORCLEMark BuehrleCorey KluberCLE-11910953.277.5-105-1157.33
LAADETC.J. WilsonMax ScherzerDET-15514560.007.5100-1207.26
BALBOSBud NorrisFelix DoubrontBOS-14213257.819-110-1108.90
MINKCKevin CorreiaBruce ChenKC-14013057.458.5-115-1058.47
CINCHNTony CinganiEdwin JacksonCIN-14513558.337105-1256.69
HOUOAKBrad OberholtzerScott KazmirOAK-21519567.217.5-105-1157.33
MILPITMatt GarzaWandy RodriguezMIL-11210251.697105-1256.69
ATLNYNErvin SantanaBartolo ColonATL-12411454.347105-1256.69
NYATBIvan NovaClay ArcherTB-14213257.817.5-105-1157.33
SEAMIARoenis EliasHugo AlvarezMIA-105-10550.007.5-115-1057.47
CHATEXJose QuintanaColby LewisTEX-12311354.139105-1258.69
ARILANMark BolsingerDan HarenLAN-18817864.667-1201007.04
PHICOLKyle KendrickJordan LylesCOL-13912957.2610.5-12010010.54
SFSDTim HudsonEric StultsSF-11810853.056.5-1301106.67

Source: 5dimes

Friday, April 18, 2014

Friday's MLB Vegas Numbers


AwayHomeAway PitcherHome PitcherFaveMLMLWin %O/UOver VigUnder VigExp Total Runs
CINCHNAlfredo SimonJeff SamardzijaCHN-103-10250.126.5-1051156.54
MILPITKyle LohseCharlie MortonPIT-11811353.607111-1216.68
STLWASMichael WachaGio GonzalazSTL-10610150.867111-1216.68
TORCLEDrew HutchisonJustin MastersonCLE-13713257.368-101-1097.84
LAADETJered WeaverDrew SmylyDET-12612155.267100-1106.83
ATLNYNAaron HarangJonathan NieseNYM-10510050.627-105-1056.90
BALBOSChris TillmanJohn LackeyBOS-13412956.808-105-1057.90
NYATBHiroki KurodaEric BedardNYA-103-10250.127.5112-1227.16
SEAMIAChris YoungNathan EovaldiMIA-11310852.497.5100-1107.33
CHATEXFelipe PaulinoMartin PerezTEX-15314860.0810-103-1079.87
MINKCRicky NolascoJason VargasKC-14914459.438.5104-1148.27
PHICOLJoe PettiboneTyler ChatwoodCOL-14013557.8910.5-11010010.47
HOUOAKJarred CosartSonny GrayOAK-20019066.107-105-1056.90
ARILANWade MileyZach GreinkeLAN-18517864.487100-1106.83
SFSDMatt CainTyson RossSD-104-10150.376.5-107-1036.43

Thursday, April 17, 2014

Dbacks vs Dodgers - Friday's Simulation Results


                                         *** Simulation Results ***

                                 Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

RankDbacksDodgersOccurrencesRankDbacksDodgersOccurrences
1125180951074922
2235139152474885
3343734653754410
4213568654184161
5323567055824142
6013145356284069
7133092057574015
8312610358703962
9432595959833839
10242531760763798
11022469161813719
12422352862383497
13142295063843253
14452269564082966
15102173765482724
16032072966292588
17201971867852526
18411938668922524
19251695969192512
20301634770802468
21531584771782418
22521579072932298
23351578073582240
24041568074912176
25151533875392112
26541527176861997
27511324777941911
28401230378091907
29561165479681694
30051135580491583
31261060781871566
321610415822101531
336210285831101521
34361000984901489
3563998985951464
36649017861021410
37618984871031292
38508868881011271
3946844189591245
40658121903101209
41067666910101144
4272663892961117
43276591931041071
4417657494211969
4573622095111930
466060219669928
477158619789928
4837577998410910
4967542699112841
50745414100100838

Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Dodgers vs Giants - Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores 4/16


                                            *** Simulation Results ***

                                   Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

RankDodgersGiantsOccurrencesRankDodgersGiantsOccurrences
12344285175603
21239665276573
33437395382572
43234455406553
52130585557552
64328245683496
73125955770475
81325225828458
94224675981434
104523866038422
112423826184421
120120656285378
134120296392373
141418826407350
155418376518349
165217816648339
175317666778339
182517526893338
193517446980328
201017257058303
210216997186295
222016657291286
233015417387282
245614747429258
250314667539254
261513757608250
275113737768247
286312267894246
294012117995233
303611828019231
316211488149227
322611428259219
3304110383102211
3464109884103199
3565107685101196
364610138690193
376197787104174
381689588210166
39508888996161
407382390310159
41058209169146
427280192110143
432773393100134
447472194105134
45377169509132
467171296113132
47677069789131
486069398510128
49476579997128
5017621100111121

Tuesday, April 15, 2014

Dodgers vs Giants - Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores 4/15


                                   Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

RankDodgersGiantsOccurrencesRankDodgersGiantsOccurrences
12349835107530
21248255275502
33435945374499
42134955428495
53234775518448
61330785657444
70128735782435
82425745838398
94325725976389
103125646083369
110224146170363
124223736208353
131423386348353
144521566481343
151021556584302
160320486629298
172019886719268
182518496878265
194118356980250
201516877039242
213516187185240
223015847258237
230415777309234
245215547491231
255314897592220
265414787693219
270512157786215
285612007868203
295111947994198
302611788049190
311611548187180
3240113082110167
333611078395164
3463102784210157
356294985103154
366488686310152
37468318790148
386180188101147
39657928959140
400678190102133
415077691410132
422768592211131
431768393010127
44726619496120
453764395104117
46605979689104
47475969711199
4873586989795
4967571996992
507154010031186

Disclaimer: 100K simulations.

Tuesday's MLB Vegas Numbers


Game Listings: Sorted by highest expected run totals.

AwayHomeAway StarterHome StarterFaveMLMLWin %O/UOver VigUnder VigExp Runs
NYNARIJennry MejiaBronson ArroyoARI-12612155.269-1151059.04
SEATEXBlake BeavanRobbie RossTEX-13112656.249100-1108.83
BOSCHAJake PeavyEric JohnsonBOS-14013557.898.5-1101008.47
KCHOUYorbi VenturaLucas HarrelKC-15314860.088.5-1101008.47
TBBALJake OdorizziMiguel GonzalezTB-10610150.868.5100-1108.33
STLMILShelby MillerMarco EstradaMIL-11210752.278-1201108.11
CLEDETZach McAllisterAnibal SanchezDET-15915461.018-1151058.04
OAKLAADaniel StrailyGarrett RichardsLAA-11010551.818-1151058.04
TORMINBrandon MorrowPhil HughesTOR-12812355.658-1101007.97
CHNNYAJason HammelMasahiro TanakaNYA-20519566.678-105-1057.90
LANSFJosh BeckettTim LincecumSF-11310852.497.5-1151057.54
PITCINGerrit ColeMike LeakePIT-11110652.047.5100-1107.33
ATLPHIDavid HaleCliff LeePHI-15014559.607-1201107.11
COLSDJuan NicasioRobby ErlinSD-11811353.607-105-1056.90
WASMIAStephen StrasburgToby KoehlerWAS-17817163.577105-1156.76

Game Listings: Sorted by largest favorite to win.

AwayHomeAway StarterHome StarterFaveMLMLWin %O/UOver VigUnder VigExp Runs
CHNNYAJason HammelMasahiro TanakaNYA-20519566.678-105-1057.90
WASMIAStephen StrasburgToby KoehlerWAS-17817163.577105-1156.76
CLEDETZach McAllisterAnibal SanchezDET-15915461.018-1151058.04
KCHOUYorbi VenturaLucas HarrelKC-15314860.088.5-1101008.47
ATLPHIDavid HaleCliff LeePHI-15014559.607-1201107.11
BOSCHAJake PeavyEric JohnsonBOS-14013557.898.5-1101008.47
SEATEXBlake BeavanRobbie RossTEX-13112656.249100-1108.83
TORMINBrandon MorrowPhil HughesTOR-12812355.658-1101007.97
NYNARIJennry MejiaBronson ArroyoARI-12612155.269-1151059.04
COLSDJuan NicasioRobby ErlinSD-11811353.607-105-1056.90
LANSFJosh BeckettTim LincecumSF-11310852.497.5-1151057.54
STLMILShelby MillerMarco EstradaMIL-11210752.278-1201108.11
PITCINGerrit ColeMike LeakePIT-11110652.047.5100-1107.33
OAKLAADaniel StrailyGarrett RichardsLAA-11010551.818-1151058.04
TBBALJake OdorizziMiguel GonzalezTB-10610150.868.5100-1108.33

Note: Opening lines.

Monday, April 14, 2014

Monday's MLB Vegas Numbers


Game Listings: Ranked by highest to lowest expected run totals

AwayHomeAway StarterHome StarterFaveMLMLWin %O/UOver VigUnder VigTotal Exp Runs
NYNARIZack WheelerJosh CollmenterARI-12011554.029101-1118.81
SEATEXRoenis EliasColby LewisTEX-12211253.929105-1258.69
OAKLAAJesse ChavezHector SantiagoLAA-10910451.578-105-1057.90
ATLPHIErvin SantanaRoberto HernandezATL-12712255.468-102-1087.86
TBBALClay ArcherWei-Yin ChenTB-11210752.277.5-1151057.54
PITCINWandy RodriguezHomer BaileyCIN-11911453.817.5-1151057.54
STLMILLance LynnMatt GarzaMIL-11811353.607.5-1101007.47
WASMIAJordan ZimmermannBrad HandWAS-14013057.457.5-110-1107.40
COLSDJordan LylesEric StultsSD-11511052.947100-1106.83

Game Listings: Ranked by highest to lowest win expectancies

AwayHomeAway StarterHome StarterFaveMLMLWin %O/UOver VigUnder VigTotal Exp Runs
WASMIAJordan ZimmermannBrad HandWAS-14013057.457.5-110-1107.40
ATLPHIErvin SantanaRoberto HernandezATL-12712255.468-102-1087.86
NYNARIZack WheelerJosh CollmenterARI-12011554.029101-1118.81
SEATEXRoenis EliasColby LewisTEX-12211253.929105-1258.69
PITCINWandy RodriguezHomer BaileyCIN-11911453.817.5-1151057.54
STLMILLance LynnMatt GarzaMIL-11811353.607.5-1101007.47
COLSDJordan LylesEric StultsSD-11511052.947100-1106.83
TBBALClay ArcherWei-Yin ChenTB-11210752.277.5-1151057.54
OAKLAAJesse ChavezHector SantiagoLAA-10910451.578-105-1057.90

Sunday, April 13, 2014

Sunday's MLB Vegas Numbers


Game Listings: Ranked by highest to lowest expected run totals

AwayHomeAway SPHome SPFaveMLMLWin %O/UOver VigUnder VigTotal Runs
HOUTEXBrian OberholtzerMartin PerezTEX-17016362.489-1101008.97
BOSNYAFelix DoubrontIvan NovaNYA-10610150.869-1101008.97
LANARIDan HarenTrevor CahillLAN-11511052.948.5-1231138.65
MIAPHIHugo AlvarezKyle KendrickPHI-12712255.468.5-1221128.64
TORBALMark BuehrleUbaldo JimenezBAL-10910451.578.5-1201108.61
CLECHACorey KluberJose QuintanaCHA-11911453.818.5-107-1038.43
KCMINJason VargasKevin CorreiaKC-12311854.658.5-105-1058.40
PITMILCharlie MortonKyle LohseMIL-13012556.048.5110-1208.19
TBCINCarlos RamosTony CingraniCIN-13813357.548110-1207.69
NYNLAABartolo ColonC.J. WilsonLAA-14413958.597.5-105-1057.40
COLSFTyler ChatwoodTim HudsonSF-16716062.057.5100-1107.33
OAKSEAScott KazmirChris YoungOAK-13412456.337.5-105-1157.33
WASATLGio GonzalezAaron HarangWAS-11511052.947.5103-1137.28
CHNSTLEdwin JacksonMichael WachaSTL-21520567.747-1121027.00
DETSDMax ScherzerTyson RossDET-14614158.936.5-105-1056.40


Game Listings: Ranked by largest to smallest win expectancies

AwayHomeAway SPHome SPFaveMLMLWin %O/UOver VigUnder VigTotal Runs
CHNSTLEdwin JacksonMichael WachaSTL-21520567.747-1121027.00
HOUTEXBrian OberholtzerMartin PerezTEX-17016362.489-1101008.97
COLSFTyler ChatwoodTim HudsonSF-16716062.057.5100-1107.33
DETSDMax ScherzerTyson RossDET-14614158.936.5-105-1056.40
NYNLAABartolo ColonC.J. WilsonLAA-14413958.597.5-105-1057.40
TBCINCarlos RamosTony CingraniCIN-13813357.548110-1207.69
OAKSEAScott KazmirChris YoungOAK-13412456.337.5-105-1157.33
PITMILCharlie MortonKyle LohseMIL-13012556.048.5110-1208.19
MIAPHIHugo AlvarezKyle KendrickPHI-12712255.468.5-1221128.64
KCMINJason VargasKevin CorreiaKC-12311854.658.5-105-1058.40
CLECHACorey KluberJose QuintanaCHA-11911453.818.5-107-1038.43
LANARIDan HarenTrevor CahillLAN-11511052.948.5-1231138.65
WASATLGio GonzalezAaron HarangWAS-11511052.947.5103-1137.28
TORBALMark BuehrleUbaldo JimenezBAL-10910451.578.5-1201108.61
BOSNYAFelix DoubrontIvan NovaNYA-10610150.869-1101008.97

Note: Opening lines.

Saturday, April 12, 2014

Saturday's MLB Vegas Numbers


Game Listings: Ranked by highest to lowest expected total runs

AwayHomeAway SPHome SPFaveMLMLWin %O/UOver VigUnder VigOver %Total Runs
HOUTEXJarred CosartTony ScheppersTEX-15815360.869.5-11010051.229.47
TORBALDustin HutchisonBud NorrisBAL-11911453.819105-11547.628.76
BOSNYAJohn LackeyHiroki KurodaNYA-11010551.818.5-109-10150.988.46
CLECHAJustin MastersonFelix PaulinoCLE-12712255.468-12211253.928.14
LANARIZack GreinkeWade MileyLAN-12912455.858-11210251.698.00
PITMILEdinson VolquezYovani GallardoMIL-15214759.928-11010051.227.97
MIAPHINathan EovaldiJohn PettibonePHI-11310852.498-105-10550.007.90
COLSFBrian AndersonMatt CainSF-13813357.547.5-11510552.387.54
KCMINJames ShieldsRicky NolascoKC-14413958.597.5-107-10350.507.43
TBCINAlex CobbAlfredo SimonTB-12812355.657.5100-11048.787.33
NYNLAAJonathan NieseJered WeaverLAA-16315761.547.5105-11547.627.26
OAKSEASonny GrayErasmo RamirezOAK-11410952.727.5112-12246.087.16
WASATLTyler JordanAlex WoodATL-12612155.267-11510552.387.04
CHNSTLCarlos VillanuevaAdam WainwrightSTL-21320367.537109-11946.736.70
DETSDJustin VerlanderIan KennedyDET-13112656.246.5107-11747.176.23


Game Listings: Ranked by biggest to smallest win expectancies

AwayHomeAway SPHome SPFaveMLMLWin %O/UOver VigUnder VigOver %Total Runs
CHNSTLCarlos VillanuevaAdam WainwrightSTL-21320367.537109-11946.736.70
NYNLAAJonathan NieseJered WeaverLAA-16315761.547.5105-11547.627.26
HOUTEXJarred CosartTony ScheppersTEX-15815360.869.5-11010051.229.47
PITMILEdinson VolquezYovani GallardoMIL-15214759.928-11010051.227.97
KCMINJames ShieldsRicky NolascoKC-14413958.597.5-107-10350.507.43
COLSFBrian AndersonMatt CainSF-13813357.547.5-11510552.387.54
DETSDJustin VerlanderIan KennedyDET-13112656.246.5107-11747.176.23
LANARIZack GreinkeWade MileyLAN-12912455.858-11210251.698.00
TBCINAlex CobbAlfredo SimonTB-12812355.657.5100-11048.787.33
CLECHAJustin MastersonFelix PaulinoCLE-12712255.468-12211253.928.14
WASATLTyler JordanAlex WoodATL-12612155.267-11510552.387.04
TORBALDustin HutchisonBud NorrisBAL-11911453.819105-11547.628.76
OAKSEASonny GrayErasmo RamirezOAK-11410952.727.5112-12246.087.16
MIAPHINathan EovaldiJohn PettibonePHI-11310852.498-105-10550.007.90
BOSNYAJohn LackeyHiroki KurodaNYA-11010551.818.5-109-10150.988.46

Friday, April 11, 2014

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks - Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores 4/12


                                    Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores
RankDodgersDbacksOccurrencesRankDodgersDbacksOccurrences
1343461751176575
2233283852846564
3452906453106549
4432393454386505
5322346255826403
6122240256856367
7562147357286237
8541966258486122
9241867159055918
10421854460865846
11531750561505770
12351713062585766
13211651863875412
14131587164685264
15311517665815093
16521492566934814
17251470967184757
18651424768604755
19671395969394720
20641356770924573
21141355371064554
22411317172894546
23631306573944444
24461292274294406
25361268275494344
26621145676954013
27261144977593794
28151111178963765
29511075979703750
3074966980913554
3176962681073433
3273940382693393
33759392831033334
3437904784193329
35478932853103305
3601877586973216
37728652871023132
38618617881043130
39168595894103015
40578541902102984
4127849191792973
4278834692982922
4302807293802797
44037956941052707
45307658955102603
4620750796082592
47047063971012487
48406804981102327
49716804991132241
508367441009102235

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks - Simulation Results 4/11




                Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores (1 million simualtions)
RankDodgersDbacksOccurrencesRankDodgersDbacksOccurrences
1343414251016435
2453047652206427
3232970853406408
4432395154586365
5562309755026263
6322240556176230
7542073457876201
8121884158036196
9421816659286157
10531786060685914
11241769361045724
12351743662505381
13671552963895214
14651541764105117
15521493365395008
16641447566934990
17251437167944943
18211432468054867
19311430969814744
20131356270494689
21461355871184648
22631342472604580
23361275073924564
24411244374294553
25141209875954438
26621151176594310
27261127477964086
28761043178064002
29511038879693831
30751028080973738
31741019781913505
3215998682703465
33739701833103463
3447967084983426
35789416851033394
36579386861043381
37379363874103320
3872879888793310
3927848389193244
40618465901023212
41168013912103197
42837104925102967
43847061931052948
4448695694072944
45856898959102710
4638683296802647
47306740971062608
48866540986102398
49826523991012371
507165181003112362

Thursday, April 10, 2014

Dodgers vs Diamondbacks - Series Preview


The Dodgers and Diamondbacks face off in a three game series in the desert this weekend, their first meeting since the ridiculous two games played weeks ago in Australia.  While the Dodgers currently fair better than the Diamondbacks in the standings both teams have had their fair share of troubles since returning from down under.  The Diamondbacks have been getting terrible pitching, while the Dodgers have been getting pitchers injured.  Expect a lot of runs to be scored in this series and the Diamondbacks play in a hitters park.

Here is a quick break down of the pitching matchups.

DayDodgers SPDbacks SPSkinny on Dbacks Starter
FridayHyun-Jin RyuBrandon McCarthyDoesn't miss too many bats, trying to re-invent himself as ground ball pitcher but more of a HR pitcher so far.
SaturdayZack GreinkeWade MileyHas been solid so far and also tends to induce ground balls.
SundayDan HarenTrevor CahillPretty extreme GB pitcher has been awful so far, fighting to keep rotation spot.

Bullpen
So, their starting pitching kind of sucks but how about their bullpen?  We should be seeing quite a bit of their bullpen so is it any good?  Well yeah, it is pretty good - at least on paper.  None of their relief pitchers are as good as Kenley Jansen but Addison Reed is a solid closer (don't get fooled by his girl name) and J.J. Putz is a very solid setup man.  Oliver Perez and Joe Thatcher are the lefty specialists who will be called on to deliver against the likes of Crawford, Gonzalez, Gordon and Ethier.  And watch out for Brad Ziegler the submarining right hander that is a double play inducing wizard.  You don't want one of our slow runners up with a man on first base and less than two outs facing this guy.  If you see Ryan Rowland-Smith (the guy too cool to drop his maiden name) or Josh Collmenter in the game you know things have probably gone well for the boys in blue.

What about Defense?
On the defensive side of things the Diamondbacks are pretty solid.  Some metrics may think the Trumbo is a liability in LF but the eye balls see him close to average out there.  On the plus side the Diamondbacks defense is lead by Gerardo Parra who is close to a +10 run right fielder as his throwing accuracy is truly amazing and he knows when and how to hit his cutoff man unlike the Dodgers cannon arm that plays RF when his thumb is healthy.  Next best is first baseman Paul Goldschmidt who truly is an amazing all around player.  The guy belts HRs, steals bases at a great clip for someone who plays his position and he is around a +7 fielder.  Other above average fielders on the team are catcher Miguel Montero and second baseman Aaron Hill.

Offense
Of course the Diamondbacks can hit well, especially playing in their hitter friendly park.  They have the components to mash LH pitchers pretty well in Paul Goldschmidt and the red hot Mark Trumbo.  Gerardo Parra and A.J. Pollock take turns at the top or bottom of the lineup depending on the pitching matchup and provide good speed and will provide a challenge to FedEx/Butera behind the plate.  Eric Chavez is their masher off the bench to mainly pinch hit against RH pitchers and Tony Campana is an excellent late inning pinch running threat.

Here is the typical lineup that the Diamondbacks use against both RH/LH pitchers.

vs RHPvs LHP
1RF-Gerardo ParraCF-A.J. Pollock
22B-Aaron Hill2B-Aaron Hill
31B-Paul Goldschmidt1B-Paul Goldschmidt
43B-Martin Prado3B-Martin Prado
5C-Miguel MonteroC-Miguel Montero
6LF-Mark TrumboLF-Mark Trumbo
7SS-Chris OwingsSS-Chris Owings
8CF-A.J. PollockRF-Gerardo Parra
9P-Pitchers SpotP-Pitchers Spot