Sunday, March 30, 2014

Dodgers vs Padres - Simulation Results 3/30



                                             Top 100 Most Likely Final Scores

RankLANSDCountRankLANSDCount
1126337251743538
2235044252813329
3215012753183232
4014962954823187
5104108055672959
6323884656472914
7023362557752820
8133268158802766
9203264859282751
10313249260082678
11343046861832662
12032605662762331
13432352263572247
14302308964382153
15422279665912023
16242217766841957
17142214867921851
18412113968191736
19041862369291640
20451567070901617
21401540471481561
22151453072851548
23521387673931539
24251377774091518
25511340475391242
26531311376581175
270512291771011170
28541211278861130
29351172579781114
30501053880941075
31168849811021071
3262871782110975
336184208387949
3426824284210929
3506786885100926
3663762086010877
376070408749870
385669938895867
393668508968864
4064633790103848
4165555491310647
424655199296623
4371546893104617
4417544094111605
457252819559600
4607475296112567
4727473397110536
4873457098111535
4970438499113531
50373839100211509

Notes: Game simulated one million times.

Tuesday, March 04, 2014

Best Lineup - Pittsburgh Pirates


Next up on my look at each teams most efficient lineup is the Pittsburgh Pirates.  In this exercise the methodology is to use my simulator to find out which lineup wins the most games vs RH and LH pitchers.  I do this by making the team of interest the "away" team, playing against a "make believe" team whose stats don't change from one sim to the next. In fact no stats (or input projections) change for either team, the only difference from one simulation to the next is the lineup of the team of interest.  For player projections, I am using ZIPs projections which are available on Fangraphs. The lineup results will only be as good as the projections.  Keep in mind, the results are not intended to match what a certain teams manager is most likely to do during the season.  In fact, I know that many of the results will not happen due to manager philosophies and veteran favoritism but these are the most optimal lineups that the simulator spit out.  In some cases the top couple of lineups had very small differences in results. The starting nine players were taken from MLBDepthCharts website.

Previous teams:
AL: Angels | Rangers | Rays | Twins | Blue Jays | Indians | Athletics | Astros | Red Sox
NL: Mets | Cubs | Padres | Marlins | Reds | Giants | Brewers | Dodgers

                   Pirates 2014 ZIPS Hitting Projections
K%BB%AVEOBPSLGOPSwOBA
Jose Tabata14.9%7.4%0.2650.3290.3810.7100.312
Starling Marte23.8%4.3%0.2650.3180.4300.7480.324
Neil Walker17.7%8.3%0.2610.3300.4180.7480.324
Gaby Sanchez15.7%10.0%0.2520.3330.4010.7340.322
Andrew McCutchen17.5%11.3%0.2880.3750.4840.8590.367
Pedro Alvarez32.0%8.9%0.2340.3030.4650.7680.328
Russell Martin19.4%10.5%0.2340.3260.3840.7100.315
Jordy Mercer17.6%5.7%0.2520.3020.3850.6870.295

See the results after the jump