Thursday, June 30, 2011

July 1st Simulations



Kuroda For Sale ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Dodgers Angels H.Kuroda vs T.Chatwood Angels 51.57% 57.11% LAN 5-0
Orioles Braves J.Guthrie vs J.Jurrjens Braves TBD 53.91% ATL 4-0
DBacks Athletics J.Collmenter vs R.Harden Athletics TBD 52.66% OAK 5-4
Royals Rockies D.Duffy vs J.Nicasio Rockies TBD 65.80% COL 9-0
White Sox Cubs E.Jackson vs R.Wells White Sox TBD 53.52% CHA 6-4
Brewers Twins Y.Gallardo vs F.Liriano Twins TBD 60.23% MIN 6-2
Yankees Mets I.Nova vs J.Niese Yankees TBD 50.68% NYA 5-1
Marlins Rangers A.Sanchez vs A.Ogando Rangers TBD 65.00% TEX 15-5
Padres Mariners D.Moseley vs J.Vargas Mariners TBD 60.80% SEA 6-0
Phillies Blue Jays K.Kendrick vs R.Romero Blue Jays TBD 55.96% PHI 7-6
Red Sox Astros T.Wakefield vs B.Norris Red Sox TBD 50.45% BOS 7-5
Cardinals Rays J.Westbrook vs W.Davis Rays TBD 53.17% STL 9-6
Giants Tigers M.Bumgarner vs B.Penny Tigers TBD 51.59% SF 4-3
Indians Reds J.Masterson vs B.Arroyo Indians TBD 50.87% CLE 8-2
Pirates Nationals C.Morton vs T.Gorzelanny Nationals TBD 55.72% WAS 2-1


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June 30th Simulations



Mission Impossible: Get Out Of Last Place! ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Giants Cubs M.Cain vs C.Zambrano Cubs TBD 50.04% CHN 5-2
Marlins Athletics C.Volstad vs T.Cahill Athletics TBD 64.73% FLA 5-4
Pirates Blue Jays J.Karstens vs B.Cecil Blue Jays TBD 62.66% PIT 6-2
Red Sox Phillies J.Lester vs C.Hamels Phillies TBD 59.76% BOS 5-2
Brewers Yankees R.Wolf vs C.Sabathia Yankees TBD 76.55% NYA 5-0
Mets Tigers M.Pelfrey vs J.Verlander Tigers TBD 70.52% DET 5-2
Rangers Astros M.Harrison vs W.Rodriguez Rangers TBD 56.80% HOU 7-0
White Sox Rockies J.Peavy vs A.Cook Rockies TBD 54.73% CHA 6-4
Cardinals Orioles J.Garcia vs B.Matusz Cardinals TBD 53.43% STL 9-6

Today's Money Line Plays (team bet on in bold)
FLA vs OAK -161, 1.6 units LOSS
PIT vs TOR -138, 2.2 units LOSS
BOS vs PHI -119, 2.6 units LOSS
MIL vs NYA -198, 6.0 units WIN
NYN vs DET -215, 1.4 units WIN
TEX vs HOU -121, 0.9 units LOSS
CHA vs COL -102, 1.7 units LOSS

Profit: -5.3 units

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Wednesday, June 29, 2011

June 29th Simulations



Rubby Game Of The Series ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Dodgers Twins R.DeLaRosa vs S.Baker Twins 57.72% 63.29% MIN 1-0
Nationals Angels J.Zimmerman vs D.Haren Angels 57.17% 55.37% LAA 1-0
NYN DET Chris Capuano vs Phil Coke DET TBD 62.344 NYN 16-9
MIL NYA Shaun Marcum vs A.J. Burnett NYA TBD 65.171 NYA 5-2
KC SD Bruce Chen vs Tim Stauffer SD TBD 64.141 SD 4-1
CIN TB Edinson Volquez vs James Shields TB TBD 54.555 CIN 4-3
Indians DBacks C.Carrasco vs Z.Duke ARI TBD 52.787 CLE 6-2
PIT TOR Paul Maholm vs Brandon Morrow TOR TBD 65.03% TOR 2-1
FLA OAK Ricky Nolasco vs Guillermo Moscoso OAK TBD 53.75% FLA 3-0
BOS PHI John Lackey vs Vance Worley PHI TBD 52.41% PHI 2-1
CHA COL Mark Buehrle vs Ubaldo Jimenez COL TBD 60.20% CHA 3-2
TEX HOU Colby Lewis vs Brett Myers TEX TBD 58.86% TEX 3-2
SF CHN Tim Lincecum vs Ryan Dempster SF TBD 50.88% CHN 2-1
STL BAL Chris Carpenter vs Chris Jakubauskas BAL TBD 50.86% STL 5-1
ATL SEA Derek Lowe vs Felx Hernandez SEA TBD 61.70% ATL 5-3

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Tuesday, June 28, 2011

Vegas Loves These Pitchers




This blog entry was inspired by a discussion at The Book Blog regarding how often the Phillies were the favorite team to win in Vegas when Roy Halladay was pitching based on an arbitrary opponent. I took it a step further and looked at the actual empirical data from the 2011 season. Then I took things another step further and looked at a few other pitchers of interest. Below are the results.

PitcherGSFavoredUnderdogFave %MaxMinAverageActual Win%
Roy Halladay17170100.0070.5951.2263.8582.35
C.C. Sabathia17170100.0067.2152.4961.0970.59
Jon Lester16160100.0069.4251.160.7956.25
Cliff Lee17170100.0069.751.160.3464.71
Justin Verlander1715288.2465.8141.4957.0964.71
Cole Hamels1614287.5068.7547.2859.5768.75
Tommy Hanson1614287.5069.2348.1958.162.5
Tim Lincecum1614287.5065.6448.4357.9462.5
Jered Weaver1815383.3364.8547.8556.3661.11
Jair Jurrjens1411378.5762.2642.1953.8271.43
Clayton Kershaw1712570.5965.2245.3553.9958.82
Josh Beckett1510566.6767.7437.7455.4366.67
Ian Kennedy1711664.7163.1735.450.8864.71
James Shields1610662.5064.0941.4153.5175
Anibal Sanchez1610662.5061.3935.6551.3850
Ricky Romero1811761.1160.2437.3850.1538.89


Monday, June 27, 2011

June 28th Simulations



Realilly Check ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Dodgers Twins T.Lilly vs B.Duensing Twins 51.57% 65.22% MIN 6-4
Nationals Angels J.Marquis vs J.Pineiro Angels 54.85% 51.76% LAA 11-5
Indians DBacks J.Tomlin vs D.Hudson DBacks TBD 60.58% ARI 6-4
Cardinals Orioles K.Lohse vs Z.Britton Orioles TBD 60.39% STL 6-2
Giants Cubs R.Vogelsong vs D.Davis Giants TBD 53.83% SF 13-7
Giants Cubs B.Zito vs R.Lopez Cubs 50.62% 52.20% SF 6-3
Red Sox Phillies J.Beckett vs C.Lee Phillies TBD 60.84% PHI 5-0
Pirates Blue Jays K.Correia vs J.Reyes Blue Jays TBD 59.48% PIT 7-6
Mets Tigers R.Dickey vs R.Porcello Tigers TBD 61.13% NYN 14-3
Marlins Athletics J.Vazquez vs G.Gonzalez Athletics TBD 68.04% OAK 1-0
Rangers Astros C.Wilson vs J.Lyles Rangers TBD 66.36% TEX 7-3
Royals Padres F.Paulino vs C.Richard Padres TBD 59.25% SD 4-2
White Sox Rockies G.Floyd vs J.Hammel Rockies TBD 56.73% COL 3-2
Reds Rays J.Cueto vs D.Price Rays TBD 56.76% TB 4-3
Braves Mariners T.Hanson vs M.Pineda Mariners TBD 56.91% ATL 5-4
Brewers Yankees Z.Greinke vs F.Garcia Yankees TBD 61.52% NYA 12-2

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Sunday, June 26, 2011

June 27th Simulations



Kershaw Kemp: Help Wanted! ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Dodgers Twins C.Billingsley vs N.Blackburn Twins 52.49% 52.71% LAN 15-0
Rockies Cubs J.Chacin vs M.Garza Cubs 53.60% 51.28% CHN 7-3
Blue Jays Tigers Z.Stewart vs M.Scherzer Tigers 61.17% 66.59% DET 4-2
Royals Padres J.Francis vs M.Latos Padres 56.99% 58.19% SD 4-3
Braves Mariners B.Beachy vs E.Bedard Mariners 52.27% 61.87% ATL 3-1
Indians DBacks M.Talbot vs I.Kennedy DBacks 63.17% 62.20% CLE 5-4
Nationals Angels J.Lannan vs E.Santana Angels 56.04% 53.92% LAA 4-3
Reds Rays M.Leake vs J.Hellickson Rays 51.34% 49.84% CIN 5-0

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Saturday, June 25, 2011

June 26th Simulations



Kershaw vs Weaver - WOW!!! ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Angels Dodgers J.Weaver vs C.Kershaw Dodgers 51.10% 54.90% LAN 3-2
Mariners Marlins D.Fister vs A.Sanchez Marlins TBD 55.30% TBD
Reds Orioles H.Bailey vs J.Guthrie Orioles TBD 50.33% TBD
Nationals White Sox L.Hernandez vs P.Humber White Sox TBD 57.32% TBD
Twins Brewers C.Pavano vs C.Narveson Brewers TBD 59.74% TBD
Indians Giants F.Carmona vs M.Bumgarner Giants TBD 64.27% TBD
Blue Jays Cardinals R.Romero vs K.McClellan Cardinals TBD 50.67% TBD
Cubs Royals R.Wells vs L.Hochevar Royals TBD 52.21% TBD
Rockies Yankees J.Nicasio vs I.Nova Yankees TBD 63.96% TBD
Mets Rangers D.Gee vs D.Holland Rangers TBD 57.94% TBD
DBacks Tigers J.Saunders vs B.Penny Tigers TBD 61.71% TBD
Rays Astros J.Niemann vs J.Happ Rays TBD 51.31% TBD
Braves Padres T.Hudson vs C.Luebke Padres TBD 50.36% TBD
Athletics Phillies J.Outman vs R.Halladay Phillies TBD 67.73% TBD
Red Sox Pirates A.Miller vs J.McDonald Red Sox TBD 57.02% TBD

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June 25th Simulations



Kuroday ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Angels Dodgers T.Chatwood vs H.Kuroda Dodgers 56.62% 55.97% LAA 6-1
Rockies Yankees A.Cook vs C.Sabathia Yankees 67.21% 70.44% TBD
Blue Jays Cardinals C.Villanueva vs J.Garcia Cardinals 58.59% 68.30% TBD
Mets Rangers J.Niese vs A.Ogando Rangers 61.46% 61.45% TBD
Braves Padres J.Jurrjens vs D.Moseley Braves 54.44% 49.95% TBD
Twins Brewers F.Liriano vs Y.Gallardo Brewers 58.25% 50.85% TBD
Reds Orioles B.Arroyo vs B.Matusz Reds 50.62% 47.35% TBD
Red Sox Pirates T.Wakefield vs J.Karstens Red Sox 56.43% 53.69% TBD
Rays Astros W.Davis vs B.Norris Astros 52.49% 53.50% TBD
Athletics Phillies T.Cahill vs C.Hamels Phillies 64.48% 66.75% TBD
Mariners Marlins J.Vargas vs C.Volstad Mariners 56.04% 50.93% TBD
Cubs Royals C.Zambrano vs D.Duffy Cubs 50.12% 55.04% TBD
Indians Giants J.Masterson vs M.Cain Giants 56.62% 55.27% TBD
Nationals White Sox T.Gorzelanny vs J.Danks White Sox 59.27% 58.25% TBD
DBacks Tigers J.Collmenter vs J.Verlander Tigers 62.89% 67.58% TBD

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Friday, June 24, 2011

June 24th Simulations



LA v LA ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Angels Dodgers D.Haren vs R.DeLaRosa Angels 56.04% 55.38% LAA 8-3
Mets Rangers M.Pelfrey vs M.Harrison Rangers 59.27% 62.42% TBD
Reds Orioles E.Volquez vs C.Jakubauskas Reds 53.16% 53.30% TBD
Indians Giants C.Carrasco vs J.Sanchez Giants 54.44% 55.81% TBD
DBacks Tigers Z.Duke vs P.Coke Tigers 58.25% 62.01% TBD
Twins Brewers S.Baker vs R.Wolf Brewers 57.89% 52.54% TBD
Mariners Marlins F.Hernandez vs R.Nolasco Mariners 59.60% 51.19% TBD
Athletics Phillies G.Moscoso vs V.Worley Phillies 60.24% 60.35% TBD
Rockies Yankees U.Jimenez vs A.Burnett Yankees 56.43% 58.19% TBD
Nationals White Sox J.Zimmerman vs E.Jackson White Sox 53.60% 52.08% TBD
Red Sox Pirates J.Lester vs P.Maholm Red Sox 61.32% 59.26% TBD
Rays Astros J.Shields vs W.Rodriguez Rays 55.26% 52.01% TBD
Cubs Royals R.Dempster vs B.Chen Royals 50.86% 46.63% TBD
Braves Padres D.Lowe vs T.Stauffer Padres 50.62% 60.10% TBD
Blue Jays Cardinals B.Morrow vs J.Westbrook Cardinals 50.62% 49.52% TBD

Run Total Picks Of The Day!
ATL vs SD Under 6.5 -115, 1.6 units
CHN vs KC Over 9.0 +110, 2.1 units
TOR vs STL Under 8.0 +100, 3.3 units
BOS vs PIT Under 8.0 -120, 2.1 units
TB vs HOU Under 7.0 -110, 0.3 units
COL vs NYA Over 9.0 -110, 2.5 units
WAS vs CHA Under 8.0 -108, 0.8 units
OAK vs PHI Under 8.5 +110, 0.7 units
CLE vs SF Under 7.0 -115, 0.3 units
SEA vs FLA Over 6.5 -115, 1.0 units
ARI vs DET Under 9.0 +100, 0.5 units
CIN vs BAL Over 9.5 +110, 0.9 units
LAA vs LAN Under 7.0 -115, 1.7 units

Daily Profit: -6.5 units

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Wednesday, June 22, 2011

June 23rd Simulations



Ted Gopher Ball Lilly ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Athletics Mets G.Godfrey vs C.Capuano Mets 56.62% 57.98% NYN 4-1
Mariners Nationals M.Pineda vs J.Marquis Mariners 53.16% 46.95% WAS 1-0
Twins Giants B.Duensing vs T.Lincecum Giants 63.30% 60.45% SF 2-1
Phillies Cardinals R.Oswalt vs C.Carpenter Cardinals 51.34% 50.06% STL 12-2
DBacks Royals D.Hudson vs F.Paulino DBacks 51.34% 52.38% ARI 5-3

Run Total Picks Of The Day!
PHI vs STL Under -123 8.0, 0.6 units LOSS
SEA vs WAS Under -122 7.5, 0.5 units WIN
OAK vs NYN Under -110 8.0, 0.3 units WIN
ARI vs KC Over +108 8.5, 0.5 units LOSS
Daily Profit: -0.4 units

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Tuesday, June 21, 2011

June 22nd Simulation



Dodgers And Kemp Are Seeing 20/20 ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Tigers Dodgers R.Porcello vs T.Lilly Dodgers 50.62% 52.63% DET 7-5
Yankees Reds F.Garcia vs M.Leake Yankees TBD 50.66% NYA 4-2
Phillies Cardinals C.Lee vs K.Lohse Phillies TBD 60.31% PHI 4-0
Astros Rangers B.Myers vs C.Lewis Rangers TBD 67.86% HOU 5-3
Cubs White Sox D.Davis vs J.Peavy White Sox TBD 60.24% CHA 3-2
Twins Giants N.Blackburn vs R.Vogelsong Giants TBD 61.72% SF 5-1
Orioles Pirates Z.Britton vs K.Correia Orioles TBD 56.06% PIT 5-4
Padres Red Sox C.Richard vs J.Lackey Red Sox TBD 60.45% SD 5-1
Yankees Reds F.Garcia vs M.Leake Reds TBD 51.60% CIN 10-2
Angels Marlins J.Pineiro vs B.Sanches Angels TBD 50.39% LAA 6-5
Mariners Nationals E.Bedard vs J.Lannan Nationals TBD 52.37% WAS 2-1
Rockies Indians J.Hammel vs J.Tomlin Indians TBD 53.99% CLE 4-3
Athletics Mets G.Gonzalez vs R.Dickey Athletics TBD 50.96% NYN 3-2
Blue Jays Braves J.Reyes vs B.Beachy Braves TBD 51.66% ATL 5-1
DBacks Royals I.Kennedy vs J.Francis DBacks TBD 54.13% ARI 3-2
Rays Brewers D.Price vs S.Marcum Rays TBD 53.92% TB 6-3

Run Total Picks Of The Day!
HOU vs TEX Over +105 9.5, 0.5 units LOSS
CHN vs CHA Over -112 8.5, 0.8 units LOSS
ARI vs KC Over +105 8.0, 1.0 units LOSS
PHI vs STL Under -120 7.5, 1.4 units WIN
TOR vs ATL Under -105 8.0, 0.5 units WIN
OAK vs NYN Under -125 7.5, 0.9 units WIN
Daily Profit: 0.1 units

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June 21st Simulations



Dodgers Hope To Get Max Out Of Billingsley ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Tigers Dodgers M.Scherzer vs C.Billingsley Tigers 52.27% 43.23% LAN 6-1
CHN CHA Matt Garza vs Mark Buehrle CHA TBD 51.849 CHA 3-2
BAL PIT Jeremy Guthrie vs James McDonald BAL TBD 51.015 PIT 9-3
TB MIL Jeremy Hellickson vs Zach Greinke MIL TBD 58.857 MIL 5-1
ARI KC Joe Saunders vs Luke Hochevar ARI TBD 51.903 ARI 7-2
COL CLE Jhoulys Chacin vs Mitch Talbot COL TBD 57.315 COL 4-3
MIN SF Carl Pavano vs Madison Bumgarner SF TBD 68.209 MIN 9-2
NYA CIN Brian Gordon vs Johnny Cueto CIN TBD 59.103 Ppd.
SEA WAS Doug Fister vs Livan Hernandez WAS TBD 55.624 WAS 6-5
LAA FLA Ervin Santana vs Javier Vazquez LAA TBD 50.976 FLA 5-2
SD BOS Mat Latos vs Afredo Aceves BOS TBD 54.431 SD 5-4
TOR ATL Zach Stewart vs Mike Minor ATL TBD 60.107 ATL 5-1
OAK NYN Josh Outman vs Dillon Gee NYN TBD 57.815 OAK 7-3
PHI STL Roy Halladay vs Kyle McClellan PHI TBD 62.278 PHI 10-2
HOU TEX Jordan Lyles vs C.J. Wilson TEX TBD 72.05 TEX 5-4

Run Total Picks Of The Day!
PHI vs STL, Under 7.5 -110, 4.4 units Over
Daily Profit: -4.4 units

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Sunday, June 19, 2011

June 20th Simulations



Dodgers And Tigers and Kershaw, Oh My! ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Tigers Dodgers B.Penny vs C.Kershaw Dodgers 59.43% 63.42% LAN 4-0
Padres Red Sox W.LeBlanc vs A.Miller Red Sox 64.22% 66.05% BOS 14-5
Cubs White Sox C.Zambrano vs G.Floyd White Sox 57.54% 61.14% CHN 6-3
Blue Jays Braves R.Romero vs T.Hudson Braves 54.23% 52.83% ATL 2-0
Astros Rangers J.Happ vs D.Holland Rangers 62.62% 72.03% TEX 8-3
Rockies Indians J.Nicasio vs F.Carmona Indians 52.27% 56.09% COL 8-7
Yankees Reds I.Nova vs J.Cueto Reds 54.65% 55.04% NYA 5-3
Angels Marlins J.Weaver vs A.Sanchez Angels 54.02% 49.50% LAA 2-1
Orioles Pirates J.Arrieta vs C.Morton Pirates 52.26% 52.90% BAL 8-3
Rays Brewers J.Niemann vs C.Narveson Brewers 57.54% 57.09% TB 8-4

Run Total Picks Of The Day!
DET vs LAN, Under 7.0 -107, 0.1 units WIN
CHN vs CHA, Under 8.5 -115, 0.1 units LOSS
HOU vs TEX, Under 10.5 -112, 2.5 units LOSS
NYA vs CIN, Under 9.0 +100, 3.3 units CANX
LAA vs FLA, Over 7.0 +112, 0.2 units WIN
BAL vs PIT, Under 8.0 -102, 0.7 units LOSS
TB vs MIL, Under 9.0 -115, 1.2 units LOSS
Daily Profit: -4.2 units

Tigers vs Dodgers, Run Total Distribution Chart (per 100K Simulations)

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June 19th Simulations



Dodgers Meet Pathetic ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Astros Dodgers B.Norris vs H.Kuroda Dodgers 59.27% 56.72% LAN 1-0
Royals Cardinals D.Duffy vs J.Garcia Cardinals TBD 74.72% STL 5-4
Giants Athletics M.Cain vs T.Cahill Athletics TBD 56.79% OAK 2-1
Padres Twins D.Moseley vs F.Liriano Twins TBD 60.68% MIN 5-4
Orioles Nationals C.Jakubauskas vs T.Gorzelanny Nationals TBD 57.50% BAL 7-4
Yankees Cubs C.Sabathia vs R.Wells Yankees TBD 64.25% NYA 10-4
White Sox DBacks P.Humber vs J.Collmenter DBacks TBD 56.49% CHA 8-2
Pirates Indians J.Karstens vs J.Masterson Indians TBD 68.04% CLE 5-2
Marlins Rays C.Volstad vs J.Shields Rays TBD 69.35% TB 2-1
Blue Jays Reds C.Villanueva vs B.Arroyo Reds TBD 60.94% CIN 2-1
Phillies Mariners C.Hamels vs J.Vargas Phillies TBD 54.65% SEA 2-0
Brewers Red Sox Y.Gallardo vs T.Wakefield Red Sox TBD 63.03% BOS 12-3
Tigers Rockies J.Verlander vs A.Cook Tigers TBD 52.71% DET 9-1
Angels Mets T.Chatwood vs J.Niese Mets TBD 60.81% LAA 7-3
Rangers Braves A.Ogando vs J.Jurrjens Braves TBD 50.14% ATL 4-2

Run Total Picks Of The Day!
HOU vs LAN, Under 7.0 -105, 1.5 units WIN
MIL vs BOS, Over 9.0 -115, 1.0 units WIN
Daily Profit: 2.3 units

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Saturday, June 18, 2011

June 18th Simulations



Dodgers Try To Rub Out A Win ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Astros Dodgers W.Rodriguez vs R.DeLaRosa Dodgers 55.16% 51.28% HOU 7-0
Giants Athletics J.Sanchez vs G.Moscoso Athletics 50.00% 53.48% OAK 4-2
Pirates Indians P.Maholm vs C.Carrasco Indians 58.68% 60.29% CLE 5-1
White Sox DBacks J.Danks vs Z.Duke White Sox 51.46% 42.11% CHA 6-2
Orioles Nationals B.Matusz vs J.Zimmerman Nationals 59.18% 64.66% WAS 4-2
Padres Twins T.Stauffer vs S.Baker Twins 57.08% 52.37% MIN 1-0
Royals Cardinals V.Mazzaro vs J.Westbrook Cardinals 60.94% 69.21% STL 5-4
Tigers Rockies P.Coke vs U.Jimenez Rockies 59.84% 59.25% COL 5-4
Phillies Mariners V.Worley vs F.Hernandez Mariners 57.63% 61.98% PHI 5-1
Brewers Red Sox R.Wolf vs J.Lester Red Sox 63.64% 73.48% MIL 4-2
Blue Jays Reds B.Morrow vs E.Volquez Reds 54.34% 52.26% MIL 4-2
Rangers Braves M.Harrison vs D.Lowe Braves 51.46% 51.45% TEX 5-4
Marlins Rays R.Nolasco vs A.Cobb Rays 57.08% 58.17% TB 7-4
Yankees Cubs A.Burnett vs R.Dempster Yankees 57.63% 51.98% NYA 4-3
Angels Mets D.Haren vs M.Pelfrey Angels 54.75% 53.32% NYN 6-1

Run Total Picks Of The Day!
HOU vs LAN, Over 7.0 -105, 0.6 units Push
Daily Profit: 0.0 units

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Thursday, June 16, 2011

June 16th Simulations



Off Day, Off Season ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Mets Braves R.Dickey vs M.Minor Braves 52.94% 54.73% TBD
Cardinals Nationals K.Lohse vs J.Lannan Nationals 50.62% 49.57% TBD
Pirates Astros J.McDonald vs J.Lyles Astros 51.57% 49.21% TBD
Marlins Phillies J.Vazquez vs C.Lee Phillies 68.15% 74.08% TBD
White Sox Twins M.Buehrle vs N.Blackburn White Sox 51.33% 56.19% TBD
Giants DBacks R.Vogelsong vs I.Kennedy DBacks 56.43% 51.18% TBD
Brewers Cubs Z.Greinke vs M.Garza Brewers 54.65% 44.02% TBD
Red Sox Rays C.Buchholz vs D.Price Rays 53.16% 57.11% TBD
Rangers Yankees C.Wilson vs B.Gordon Rangers 53.49% 49.19% TBD
Royals Athletics J.Francis vs G.Gonzalez Athletics 58.07% 61.60% TBD
Indians Tigers M.Talbot vs M.Scherzer Tigers 60.71% 63.03% TBD
Orioles Blue Jays J.Guthrie vs Z.Stewart Blue Jays 52.94% 47.35% TBD

Run Total Picks of The Day!

Daily Profit: 1.7 units

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Note: There will be no simulations on Friday

Wednesday, June 15, 2011

Ides Of June Simulation



Not Quite Circling The Drain ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Reds Dodgers T.Wood vs C.Billingsley Reds TBD 51.91% CIN 7-2
Brewers Cubs C.Narveson vs C.Zambrano Cubs TBD 56.60% MIL 9-5
White Sox Twins G.Floyd vs C.Pavano White Sox TBD 54.76% MIN 4-1
Cardinals Nationals K.McClellan vs L.Hernandez Nationals TBD 53.42% WAS 10-0
Rangers Yankees D.Holland vs I.Nova Yankees TBD 56.37% NYA 12-4
Giants DBacks M.Bumgarner vs J.Saunders Giants TBD 58.76% SF 5-2
Indians Tigers F.Carmona vs B.Penny Tigers TBD 57.13% CLE 6-4
Marlins Phillies E.Villanueva vs K.Kendrick Phillies TBD 64.49% PHI 8-1
Red Sox Rays J.Beckett vs J.Hellickson Red Sox TBD 55.22% BOS 3-0
Angels Mariners E.Santana vs E.Bedard Mariners TBD 56.29% SEA 3-1
Mets Braves D.Gee vs T.Hudson Braves TBD 51.51% NYN 4-0
Orioles Blue Jays J.Arrieta vs R.Romero Blue Jays TBD 52.92% TOR 4-1
Padres Rockies M.Latos vs J.Chacin Rockies TBD 61.06% COL 6-3
Pirates Astros C.Morton vs J.Happ Astros TBD 51.29% PIT 7-3
Royals Athletics L.Hochevar vs J.Outman Athletics TBD 61.27% OAK 2-1
Marlins Phillies A.Sanchez vs R.Halladay Phillies TBD 68.21% PHI 5-4

Run Total Picks of The Day!
PHI vs FLA, Under 9.5 -112 0.3 units WIN
LAA vs SEA, Over 6.5 -122 2.2 units LOSS
KC vs OAK, Under 8.0 +102 0.9 units WIN
BOS vs TB, Under 7.5 +100 0.6 units WIN
BAL vs TOR, Over 8.0 -110 0.3 units LOSS
CLE vs DET, Over 9.0 +100 1.8 units WIN
TEX vs NYA, Under 9.5 +106 1.0 units LOSS
SF vs ARI, Over 8.0 -125 3.0 units LOSS
PIT vs HOU, Over 7.5 -108 0.2 units WIN
NYN vs ATL, Over 7.0 -105 1.5 units LOSS
FLA vs PHI, Under 7.0 +107 1.2 units LOSS
CIN vs LAN, Under 7.5 -120 3.5 units LOSS
SD vs COL, Over 8.5 +102 0.1 units WIN
MIL vs CHN, Over 8.5 +105 1.3 units WIN
CHA vs MIN, Under 8.0 -110 2.6 units WIN

Daily Profit: -4.9 units

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Tuesday, June 14, 2011

June 14th Simulations



Johnny Be Bad ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Reds Dodgers J.Cueto vs C.Kershaw Dodgers 54.85% 51.91% CIN 3-2
Marlins Phillies C.Volstad vs C.Hamels Phillies 66.44% 70.26% PHI 9-1
Pirates Astros J.Karstens vs B.Norris Astros 53.16% 56.00% PIT 1-0
Royals Athletics D.Duffy vs J.Outman Athletics 61.46% 60.71% KC 7-4
Red Sox Rays T.Wakefield vs J.Shields Rays 54.02% 51.74% TB 4-0
Brewers Cubs Y.Gallardo vs R.Wells Brewers 56.99% 51.16% CHN 5-4
Mets Braves J.Niese vs J.Jurrjens Braves 58.42% 51.23% NYN 4-3
Giants DBacks M.Cain vs J.Collmenter DBacks 52.49% 50.53% SF 6-5
Rangers Yankees A.Ogando vs C.Sabathia Yankees 58.07% 62.92% NYA 12-4
White Sox Twins G.Floyd vs C.Pavano White Sox 55.06% 52.27% Ppd.
Cardinals Nationals J.Garcia vs Y.Maya Cardinals 57.72% 65.54% WAS 8-6
Angels Mariners J.Weaver vs D.Fister Mariners 56.04% 50.13% LAA 4-0
Orioles Blue Jays C.Jakubauskas vs C.Villanueva Blue Jays 58.93% 49.69% TOR 6-5
Indians Tigers J.Masterson vs J.Verlander Tigers 63.03% 58.11% DET 2-0
Padres Rockies W.LeBlanc vs J.Nicasio Rockies 59.60% 59.52% COL 6-5

Run Total Picks of The Day!
FLA vs PHI, Under 8.0 -108 1.1 units LOSS
PIT vs HOU, Over 7.5 +105 0.4 units LOSS
SF vs ARI, Over 7.5 +100 0.4 units WIN
CIN vs LAN, Under 6.5 -105 1.1 units WIN
TEX vs NYA, Under 8.5 -120 1.6 units LOSS
BOS vs TB, Under 9.0 -112 0.8 units WIN
CHA vs MIN, Under 7.5 +100 0.9 units Ppd.
KC vs OAK, Over 7.0 -127 0.4 units WIN
Daily Profit: -0.6 units

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Monday, June 13, 2011

How To Bet Major League Run Totals


The three main types of baseball game bets are the Money Line which is picking the correct team to win at the given Vegas lines, Run Lines which is a 1.5 run point spread and Run Totals which is an over/under on runs scored in a game. What I am going to go over in detail is my methodology for betting the run totals (over/under).

Pittsburgh Pirates o7.5 +105
Houston Astros u7.5 -115

In the above example the over/under is 7.5 runs. Any bet on the over pays $105 for every $100 bet. Any bet on the under pays $100 for every $115 bet if less than 7.5 runs are scored. Since the over/under is a half of a run, there are no pushes.

So what methodology do you use to determine if you should bet the over, under or make no bet at all? Obviously, you need a solid system for determining how many runs are likely to score in this game. Let's say your methodology tells you that 8 runs is the average runs scored between these two teams given the starting pitching matchup. You should bet the over right? After all, 8 is greater than 7.5. Well, not so fast. You see, runs scored per game is not distributed in a nice symmetrical bell curve. There are more games bunched around the lower scores, then more games spread out over the higher scores. It is important to know the median not the mean. Therefore you need to know the median. But how?

What you need is a simulator that can model a game accurately. And by accurately I mean it has to be proficient in modeling which team will win and how many runs will be scored. This is not easy, but given this you can simulate the game hundreds of thousands of times, keeping track of how many times each final score occurred. What you will notice is that there are a lot of one run games due to the rules of baseball (home team walk off). One run games all end in an odd number as far as the run total goes (1-0, 2-1, 3-2, 4-3 etc...).

Next you need to take that distribution output from your simulation and see how many games finished under 7.5 runs and how many finished above 7.5 runs. Then compare the likelihood of the over/under to the odds given to you from Vegas. Plug in the Vegas odds and your simulator odds into the Kelly formula and make your bet size based on that. For example, a mean run total of 8 runs is usually has a fair run total line of 7.5 runs. Which means a mean of 8 runs in most cases has an approximated median of 7.5 runs. Without the simulation you will have no idea what the median is and will not be able to make the most efficient bet.

Here is a bar chart of a 100K game simulation where the run total average was 8.08 runs per game. The y-axis is the number of occurrences and the x-axis is the run total. Notice the skew towards the lower scoring games and the difference in occurrences between the odd and even run total neighbors.

Run Totals

What is the fair run total line? Let's find out. Listed below are the percentage of games that would fall over/under of 7.0, 7.5, 8.0 and 8.5 runs.
Total Runs Over % Under %
7.0 55.38% 44.62%
7.5 49.54% 50.46%
8.0 45.73% 54.27%
8.5 41.92% 58.08%

Obviously, the fair over/under line would be 7.5 runs with the vig skewed slightly to the under. Did you notice that the mean total runs scored was 8.08 but the median is closest to 7.5 runs? This is why you need a simulator that kind output a distribution of scores to do this right.

In summary to bet MLB run totals with any type of success you need to have a run distribution table, letting calculate what the chances are of a game having less than or more than X number of runs. This percentage can then be plugged in to the Kelly calculator to determine your most efficient bet type.

Sunday, June 12, 2011

June 13th Simulations



Dodgers Offense Appears Out Of Thin Air ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Reds Dodgers B.Arroyo vs H.Kuroda Dodgers 53.38% 50.14% CIN 6-4
Rays Tigers A.Cobb vs P.Coke Tigers 53.16% 54.35% DET 2-1
Indians Yankees C.Carrasco vs A.Burnett Yankees 62.48% 59.48% CLE 1-0
Brewers Cubs R.Wolf vs R.Dempster Brewers 50.62% 38.78% CHN 1-0
Padres Rockies A.Bass vs A.Cook Rockies TBD 64.62% SD 3-1
Braves Astros D.Lowe vs W.Rodriguez Braves 54.85% 45.35% HOU 8-3
Angels Mariners D.Haren vs J.Vargas Angels 54.85% 52.48% LAA 6-3
DBacks Marlins Z.Duke vs R.Nolasco Marlins 56.62% 61.95% ARI 12-9
Mets Pirates M.Pelfrey vs P.Maholm Pirates 52.72% 56.14% PIT 3-1

Run Total Picks of The Day!
ATL vs HOU, Under 7.5 -113 0.6 units LOSS
CIN vs LAN, Under 7.5 -120 0.6 units LOSS
CLE vs NYA, Under 9.5 +100 0.5 units WIN
LAA vs SEA, Over 6.5 -105 0.3 units WIN
Daily Profit: -0.4 units

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Had a record setting day yesterday for my run total bets. Below is a snapshot of my excel spreadsheet bets. Divide by 10 to get actual unit totals.
June 12th ROI

June 12th Simulations



Leaving Colorado ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Dodgers Rockies R.DeLaRosa vs U.Jimenez Rockies 66.00% 69.12% LAN 10-8
KC LAA Vin Mazzaro vs Tyler Chatwood LAA TBD 62.118 KC 9-0
ARI FLA Daniel Hudson vs Brad Hand ARI TBD 55.348 ARI 5-1
CHN PHI Doug Davis vs Roy Oswalt PHI TBD 68.04 PHI 4-3
WAS SD Jordan Zimmerman vs Tim Stauffer SD TBD 55.915 WAS 2-0
ATL HOU Tommy Hanson vs Brett Myers ATL TBD 53.221 ATL 4-1
OAK CHA Guillermo Moscoso vs Phil Humber CHA TBD 60.17 CHA 5-4
TB BAL Wade Davis vs Brian Matusz BAL TBD 57.501 TB 9-6
TEX MIN Matt Harrison vs Francisco Liriano TEX TBD 55.03% MIN 6-1
BOS TOR Jon Lester vs Kyle Drabek BOS TBD 62.08% BOS 14-1
STL MIL Jake Westbrook vs Shaun Marcum MIL TBD 51.30% MIL 4-3
SEA DET Felx Hernandez vs Rick Porcello SEA TBD 51.76% SEA 7-3
CIN SF Edinson Volquez vs Jonathan Sanchez SF TBD 55.80% SF 4-2
NYN PIT Chris Capuano vs Kevin Correia NYN TBD 51.137 NYN 7-0
CLE NYA Josh Tomlin vs Freddy Garcia NYA TBD 63.262 NYA 9-1

Run Total Picks of The Day!
Daily Profit: +11.6 units

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Saturday, June 11, 2011

June 11th Simulations



Slip Sliding Away ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Dodgers Rockies T.Lilly vs J.Hammel Rockies 59.18% 64.09% LAN 11-7
Athletics White Sox G.Gonzalez vs J.Danks Athletics TBD 52.02% CHA 3-2
Cardinals Brewers C.Carpenter vs Z.Greinke Brewers TBD 51.09% MIL 5-3
Rays Orioles D.Price vs J.Guthrie Rays TBD 56.15% TB 7-5
Mariners Tigers M.Pineda vs M.Scherzer Tigers TBD 53.44% DET 8-1
Reds Giants M.Leake vs T.Lincecum Giants TBD 57.40% CIN 10-2
Mets Pirates R.Dickey vs J.McDonald Pirates TBD 51.31% PIT 3-2
Royals Angels F.Paulino vs J.Pineiro Angels TBD 58.51% TBD
Indians Yankees M.Talbot vs B.Colon Yankees TBD 68.27% NYA 4-0
Rangers Twins C.Lewis vs S.Baker Rangers TBD 56.12% MIN 8-1
DBacks Marlins I.Kennedy vs J.Vazquez DBacks TBD 51.92% ARI 9-5
Nationals Padres J.Lannan vs C.Richard Padres TBD 56.96% WAS 2-1
Red Sox Blue Jays J.Lackey vs B.Morrow Blue Jays TBD 55.25% BOS 16-4
Cubs Phillies M.Garza vs C.Lee Phillies TBD 66.44% PHI 7-1
Braves Astros M.Minor vs J.Lyles Astros TBD 52.80% ATL 6-3

Run Total Picks of The Day!
OAK vs CHA, Under 8.0 -105, 0.3 units WIN
TB vs BAL, Over 8.0 -105, 0.7 units WIN
LAN vs COL, Over 8.5 -120, 0.4 units WIN
CIN vs SF, Under 6.5 -106, 1.5 units LOSS
NYM vs PIT, Over 8.0 -110, 0.1 units LOSS
KC vs LAA, Under 8.5 -105, 0.7 units LOSS
CLE vs NYA, Under 9.5 -120, 0.5 units WIN
TEX vs MIN, Under 8.0 -105, 0.5 units LOSS
ARI vs FLA, Over 7.5 -105, 2.4 units WIN
WAS vs SD, Under 6.5 +100, 1.0 units WIN
BOS vs TOR, Under 9.0 +110, 2.1 units LOSS
CHN vs PHI, Under 7.5 +107, 2.8 units LOSS
ATL vs HOU, Over 8.0 +105, 1.1 units WIN
Daily Profit: -1.7 units

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Friday, June 10, 2011

June 10th Simulations



The Bowels Of The NL West ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Dodgers Rockies C.Billingsley vs J.Chacin Rockies 58.93% 58.09% TBD
Red Sox Blue Jays C.Buchholz vs J.Reyes Red Sox 58.25% 50.03% BOS 5-1
Indians Yankees F.Carmona vs I.Nova Yankees 60.08% 64.55% TBD
Rays Orioles J.Hellickson vs J.Arrieta Rays 54.65% 51.53% TBD
Nationals Padres J.Marquis vs M.Latos Padres 59.76% 59.39% TBD
DBacks Marlins J.Saunders vs A.Sanchez Marlins 59.76% 67.68% FLA 6-4
Cardinals Brewers K.Lohse vs C.Narveson Brewers 50.62% 46.95% TBD
Mariners Tigers E.Bedard vs B.Penny Tigers 54.65% 52.89% SEA 3-2
Reds Giants T.Wood vs R.Vogelsong Giants 53.16% 51.62% TBD
Braves Astros T.Hudson vs A.Rodriguez Braves 61.69% 54.54% TBD
Cubs Phillies C.Zambrano vs R.Halladay Phillies 66.56% 69.48% PHI 7-5
Royals Angels J.Francis vs E.Santana Angels 59.10% 58.02% TBD
Athletics White Sox G.Godfrey vs E.Jackson White Sox 57.54% 58.26% TBD
Mets Pirates D.Gee vs C.Morton Pirates 52.27% 51.22% NYN 8-1
Rangers Twins C.Wilson vs B.Duensing Rangers 59.76% 59.62% TBD

Run Total Picks of The Day!
BOS vs TOR, Under 9.5 -110, 1.4 units WIN
CLE vs NYA, Under 10.0 -112, 1.2 units LOSS
TB vs BAL, Over 8.5 +110, 1.4 units LOSS
CIN vs SF, Under 7.0 -106, 1.5 units WIN
CHN vs PHI, Under 7.0 -110, 1.0 units LOSS
TEX vs MIN, Under 8.0 -110, 1.5 units LOSS
Daily Profit: -2.4 units

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Wednesday, June 08, 2011

June 9th Simulations



Dodgers Need Kershawesome Performance ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Dodgers Rockies C.Kershaw vs J.Nicasio Rockies 54.65% 49.91% COL 9-7
Red Sox Yankees J.Beckett vs C.Sabathia Yankees 55.06% 60.56% BOS 8-3
Cardinals Astros L.Lynn vs J.Happ Cardinals 51.10% 52.30% STL 9-2
Nationals Padres L.Hernandez vs A.Harang Padres 54.23% 55.53% SD 7-3
Blue Jays Royals R.Romero vs L.Hochevar Blue Jays 56.24% 55.15% KC 3-2
Cubs Phillies R.Wells vs K.Kendrick Phillies 58.76% 62.20% CHN 4-3
Mariners Tigers D.Fister vs J.Verlander Tigers 65.81% 57.42% DET 5-1
Braves Marlins J.Jurrjens vs C.Volstad Braves 56.04% 51.14% ATL 3-2
Athletics White Sox T.Cahill vs M.Buehrle White Sox 51.34% 54.35% CHA 9-4
DBacks Pirates J.Collmenter vs J.Karstens DBacks 52.49% 50.73% ARI 2-0
Rangers Twins D.Holland vs N.Blackburn Rangers 56.43% 60.39% MIN 5-4
Reds Giants J.Cueto vs M.Bumgarner Reds 50.62% 44.22% CIN 3-0
Mets Brewers J.Niese vs Y.Gallardo Brewers 62.62% 53.40% NYN 4-1

Run Total Picks of The Day!
ARI vs PIT, Over 7.5 -103, 0.5 units LOSS
CHN vs PHI, Under 9.5 -115, 1.2 units WIN
ATL vs FLA, Over 7.5 +102, 1.5 units LOSS
CIN vs SF, Under 7.0 -118, 1.8 units WIN
TOR vs KC, Over 8.5 -122, 1.2 units LOSS
BOS vs NYA, Under 8.0 +108, 0.5 units LOSS
CIN vs SF, ML SF -101, 1.5 units LOSS
Daily Profit: -2.7 units

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Tuesday, June 07, 2011

June 8th Simulations



Dodgers Offense Is Back In A Flash Gordon ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Dodgers Phillies H.Kuroda vs C.Hamels Phillies 63.84% 70.26% PHI 2-0
Nationals Giants Y.Maya vs M.Cain Giants 64.35% 68.21% SF 3-1
Twins Indians C.Pavano vs J.Masterson Indians 59.92% 61.29% MIN 3-2
Cubs Reds R.Dempster vs B.Arroyo Cubs 51.22% 38.37% CHN 4-1
Cardinals Astros J.Garcia vs B.Norris Cardinals 58.59% 59.48% HOU 4-1
Rockies Padres A.Cook vs D.Moseley Rockies 51.10% 51.61% COL 5-3
Tigers Rangers P.Coke vs A.Ogando Rangers 62.62% 59.87% TEX 7-3
Rays Angels J.Shields vs J.Weaver Angels 58.59% 59.84% TB 4-3
Athletics Orioles J.Outman vs Z.Britton Orioles 57.17% 56.82% BAL 3-2
Mariners White Sox J.Vargas vs G.Floyd White Sox 57.89% 54.60% SEA 7-4
Braves Marlins D.Lowe vs R.Nolasco Marlins 52.94% 57.31% ATL 3-2
DBacks Pirates Z.Duke vs P.Maholm Pirates 52.94% 58.05% PIT 3-2
Mets Brewers M.Pelfrey vs R.Wolf Brewers 61.83% 52.54% MIL 7-6
Red Sox Yankees T.Wakefield vs A.Burnett Yankees 54.65% 58.04% BOS 11-6
Blue Jays Royals C.Villanueva vs D.Duffy Royals 50.62% 50.91% TOR 9-8

Run Total Picks of The Day!
MIN vs CLE, Under 8.5 +105, 2.7 units WIN
CHN vs CIN, Under 9.0 +100, 1.9 units WIN
ATL vs FLA, Over 7.5 +102, 0.8 units LOSS
STL vs HOU, Under 8.0 -115, 1.4 units WIN
OAK vs BAL, Over 8.0 -122, 1.2 units LOSS
BOS vs NYA, Under 10.0 +105, 1.3 units LOSS
Daily Profit: +2.6 units

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June 7th Simulations



Dee Gordon Day ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Dodgers Phillies R.DeLaRosa vs R.Oswalt Phillies 62.89% 67.47% LAN 6-2
DBacks Pirates D.Hudson vs K.Correia DBacks 52.04% 53.03% PIT 8-5
Red Sox Yankees J.Lester vs F.Garcia Red Sox 54.02% 48.55% BOS 6-4
Athletics Orioles G.Moscoso vs C.Jakubauskas Athletics 50.86% 47.14% BAL 4-0
Mets Brewers C.Capuano vs S.Marcum Brewers 64.09% 56.92% NYN 2-1
Braves Marlins T.Hanson vs B.Hand Braves 57.72% 54.21% ATL 1-0
Nationals Giants J.Zimmerman vs J.Sanchez Giants 57.17% 58.31% WAS 2-1
Rockies Padres U.Jimenez vs T.Stauffer Rockies 57.36% 53.07% SD 2-0
Cubs Reds D.Davis vs E.Volquez Reds 61.01% 62.35% CIN 8-2
Mariners White Sox F.Hernandez vs P.Humber Mariners 52.94% 50.34% CHA 5-1
Cardinals Astros J.Westbrook vs B.Myers Cardinals 55.26% 59.08% STL 7-4
Rays Angels A.Cobb vs D.Haren Angels 61.54% 60.24% TB 4-1
Tigers Rangers R.Porcello vs M.Harrison Rangers 57.72% 59.33% DET 8-1
Twins Indians F.Liriano vs C.Carrasco Indians 56.43% 57.81% CLE 1-0
Blue Jays Royals K.Drabek vs V.Mazarro Royals 53.16% 50.51% TOR 8-5

Run Total Picks of The Day!
ATL vs FLA, Over 7.5 -110, 2.4 units LOSS
CHN vs CIN, Under 9.5 -105, 1.8 units LOSS
BOS vs NYA, Under 9.5 +100, 2.4 units LOSS
MIN vs CLE, Under 9.0 -105, 3.4 units WIN
DET vs TEX, Under 9.5 +107, 1.0 units WIN
SEA vs CHA, Under 7.0 +110, 0.9 units WIN
TB vs LAA, Under 7.0 +112, 1.2 units WIN
Daily Profit: 0.0 units

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Sunday, June 05, 2011

June 6th Simulations



Moving Up In Class ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Dodgers Phillies T.Lilly vs C.Lee Phillies 64.22% 71.79% PHI 3-1
Mariners White Sox M.Pineda vs J.Danks White Sox 50.62% 46.54% CHA 3-1
Twins Indians S.Baker vs J.Tomlin Indians 58.59% 57.14% MIN 6-4
Rays Angels D.Price vs T.Chatwood Rays 56.80% 59.01% TB 5-1
Cubs Reds M.Garza vs C.Reineke Reds 56.24% 53.42% CIN 8-2
Tigers Rangers M.Scherzer vs C.Lewis Rangers 58.25% 58.59% DET 13-7
Brewers Marlins Z.Greinke vs J.Vazquez Brewers 55.65% 53.15% MIL 7-2
Nationals Giants J.Lannan vs T.Lincecum Giants 65.64% 68.00% SF 5-4
Rockies Padres C.Mortensen vs C.Richard Padres 50.62% 47.30% COL 3-0
Blue Jays Royals B.Morrow vs F.Paulino Blue Jays 54.65% 57.51% KC 3-2
Athletics Orioles G.Gonzalez vs B.Matusz Orioles 51.34% 47.47% BAL 4-2

Run Total Picks of The Day!
CHN vs CIN, Under 9.0 +103, 2.4 units LOSS
MIN vs CLE, Under 9.0 -118, 2.6 units LOSS
TOR vs KC, Under 9.0 -115, 1.6 units WIN
TB vs LAA, Under 7.5 -115, 1.3 units WIN
MIL vs FLA, Over 8.5 +108, 1.8 units WIN
COL vs SD, Over 7.0 +110, 1.0 units LOSS
WAS vs SF, Over 6.0 -108, 1.3 units WIN
Daily Profit: -0.3 units

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Saturday, June 04, 2011

June 5th Simulations



Kemp Slams Reds ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Dodgers Reds C.Billingsley vs T.Wood Reds 53.16% 62.66% LAN 9-6
Rays Mariners W.Davis vs E.Bedard Mariners 56.62% 55.35% SEA 9-6
Blue Jays Orioles J.Reyes vs J.Guthrie Orioles 56.99% 54.79% TOR 7-4
Athletics Red Sox B.Anderson vs J.Lackey Athletics 55.26% 56.29% BOS 6-3
Nationals DBacks J.Marquis vs I.Kennedy DBacks 61.17% 62.28% WAS 9-4
Cubs Cardinals C.Zambrano vs C.Carpenter Cardinals 60.55% 62.08% STL 3-2
Yankees Angels B.Colon vs J.Pineiro Yankees 54.65% 54.51% NYA 5-3
Braves Mets T.Hudson vs R.Dickey Braves 55.26% 44.96% NYN 6-4
Rangers Indians C.Wilson vs M.Talbot Rangers 56.62% 59.20% TEX 2-0
Rockies Giants J.Hammel vs R.Vogelsong Giants 52.94% 50.00% SF 2-1
Twins Royals B.Duensing vs J.Francis Royals 59.60% 53.62% MIN 6-0
Phillies Pirates R.Halladay vs J.McDonald Phillies 64.48% 61.56% PHI 7-3
Brewers Marlins C.Narveson vs A.Sanchez Marlins 57.36% 63.84% MIL 6-5
Astros Padres J.Lyles vs M.Latos Padres 62.05% 60.58% SD 7-2
Tigers White Sox B.Penny vs J.Peavy White Sox 59.10% 56.23% DET 7-3

Run Total Picks of The Day!
ATL vs NYN, Over 7.0 -105, 1.5 units WIN
LAN vs CIN, Under 8.0 +102, 1.2 units LOSS
PHI vs PIT, Over 7.0 +112, 1.0 units WIN
CHN vs STL, Under 7.5 +100, 0.8 units WIN
TEX vs CLE, Under 9.0 -105, 3.7 units WIN
OAK vs BOS, Under 9.0 -105, 3.3 units PUSH
MIN vs KC, Under 9.5 -103, 2.3 units WIN
NYA vs LAA, Under 8.5 -115, 2.1 units WIN
Daily Profit: +9.6 units

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Friday, June 03, 2011

June 4th Simulations



Dodgers Offense, Out of Sight Out of Mind ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Dodgers Reds C.Kershaw vs J.Cueto Reds TBD 55.00% LAN 11-8
Yankees Angels C.Sabathia vs E.Santana Yankees TBD 61.44% NYA 3-2
Braves Mets J.Jurrjens vs D.Gee Mets TBD 52.34% NYN 5-0
Rangers Indians D.Holland vs F.Carmona Rangers TBD 53.42% TEX 4-0
Astros Padres A.Rodriguez vs A.Harang Padres TBD 58.57% SD 6-3
Athletics Red Sox T.Cahill vs J.Beckett Red Sox TBD 60.91% BOS 9-8
Tigers White Sox J.Verlander vs E.Jackson White Sox TBD 51.97% DET 4-2
Phillies Pirates K.Kendrick vs C.Morton Phillies TBD 50.75% PIT 6-3
Brewers Marlins Y.Gallardo vs C.Volstad Marlins TBD 53.47% MIL 3-2
Rockies Giants J.Chacin vs M.Bumgarner Giants TBD 54.70% COL 2-1
Cubs Cardinals R.Wells vs K.Lohse Cardinals TBD 66.75% STL 5-4
Nationals DBacks L.Hernandez vs J.Saunders DBacks TBD 52.61% ARI 2-0
Blue Jays Orioles R.Romero vs J.Arrieta Orioles TBD 54.16% BAL 5-3
Rays Mariners J.Hellickson vs D.Fister Mariners TBD 53.57% TB 3-2
Twins Royals N.Blackburn vs L.Hochevar Royals TBD 50.83% MIN 7-2

Run Total Picks of The Day!
Didn't have time to post picks
Daily Profit: 3.3 units

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Thursday, June 02, 2011

June 3rd Simulations



The Anti-Dodgers ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Dodgers Reds H.Kuroda vs B.Arroyo Reds 55.06% 57.63% CIN 2-1
Brewers Marlins R.Wolf vs R.Nolasco Marlins 53.38% 63.66% MIL 6-5
Phillies Pirates C.Hamels vs J.Karstens Phillies 59.60% 62.26% PIT 2-1
Tigers White Sox A.Oliver vs M.Buehrle White Sox 57.36% 56.77% CHA 6-4
Cubs Cardinals R.Dempster vs J.Garcia Cardinals 62.62% 65.47% STL 6-1
Nationals DBacks Y.Maya vs J.Collmenter DBacks 62.89% 60.44% ARI 4-0
Twins Royals C.Pavano vs D.Duffy Royals 57.36% 53.33% MIN 5-2
Astros Padres J.Happ vs D.Moseley Padres 54.44% 52.44% SD 3-1
Athletics Red Sox J.Outman vs C.Buchholz Red Sox 64.48% 58.93% BOS 8-6
Yankees Angels I.Nova vs J.Weaver Angels 60.71% 55.54% LAA 3-2
Braves Mets D.Lowe vs J.Niese Mets 50.62% 57.70% ATL 6-3
Rangers Indians A.Ogando vs J.Masterson Rangers 53.38% 50.54% TEX 11-2
Blue Jays Orioles C.Villanueva vs Z.Britton Orioles 54.44% 62.03% TOR 8-4
Rays Mariners A.Sonnanstine vs J.Vargas Mariners 52.94% 55.27% SEA 7-0
Rockies Giants J.Nicasio vs M.Cain Giants 56.43% 57.24% SF 3-1

Run Total Picks of The Day!
COL vs SF, Over 7.0 +110, 2.0 units LOSS
TEX vs CLE, Under 8.0 +105, 3.2 units LOSS
MIN vs KC, Under 9.5 -105, 2.1 units WIN
NYA vs LAA, Under 7.5 -105, 1.7 units WIN
MIL vs FLA, Over 7.5 -110, 2.7 units WIN
CHN vs STL, Under 7.5 +105, 1.2 units WIN
WAS vs ARI, Over 9.0 -120, 1.7 units LOSS
DET vs CHA, Under 9.0 +105, 2.1 units LOSS
Daily Profit: -1.7 units

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June 2nd Simulations



Midwest Bound ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Giants Cardinals J.Sanchez vs L.Lynn Cardinals 54.55% 50.93% SF 12-7
Twins Royals A.Swarzak vs S.O'Sullivan Royals 53.49% 52.62% MIN 8-2
Rays Mariners J.Shields vs F.Hernandez Mariners 52.38% 54.28% SEA 8-2
Rangers Indians D.Bush vs C.Carrasco Indians 53.49% 52.74% TEX 7-4
Pirates Mets P.Maholm vs M.Pelfrey Mets 54.55% 48.22% NYN 9-8
Nationals DBacks J.Zimmerman vs Z.Duke DBacks 54.55% 49.45% WAS 6-1
Astros Padres B.Norris vs T.Stauffer Padres 53.49% 56.30% HOU 7-4

Run Total Picks of The Day!
SF vs STL, Under 8.5 -115, 1.5 units LOSS
TEX vs CLE, Under 9.0 +100, 2.7 units LOSS
PIT vs NYN, Over 7.5 +115, 0.8 units WIN
Daily Profit: -3.3 units

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Wednesday, June 01, 2011

June 1st Simulations



Third Place With A Bullet ...


Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Final Score
Rockies Dodgers U.Jimenez vs J.Garland Rockies 52.72% 57.69% COL 3-0
Pirates Mets K.Correia vs C.Capuano Mets TBD 56.10% PIT 9-3
Rangers Rays C.Lewis vs D.Price Rays TBD 59.33% TEX 3-0
Phillies Nationals R.Oswalt vs J.Lannan Phillies TBD 56.28% WAS 2-1
Angels Royals T.Chatwood vs F.Paulino Angels TBD 50.84% KC 2-0
Twins Tigers S.Baker vs R.Porcello Tigers TBD 59.68% DET 4-2
Astros Cubs B.Myers vs D.Davis Cubs TBD 59.34% HOU 3-1
Brewers Reds S.Marcum vs M.Leake Reds TBD 57.53% CIN 4-3
Indians Blue Jays J.Tomlin vs K.Drabek Blue Jays TBD 51.37% CLE 13-9
Yankees Athletics A.Burnett vs G.Gonzalez Athletics TBD 54.10% NYA 4-2
Padres Braves C.Richard vs T.Hanson Braves TBD 64.22% ATL 4-3
White Sox Red Sox G.Floyd vs T.Wakefield Red Sox TBD 57.71% CHA 7-4
Giants Cardinals T.Lincecum vs J.Westbrook Cardinals TBD 52.67% SF 7-5
Orioles Mariners B.Matusz vs M.Pineda Mariners TBD 59.03% BAL 2-1
Marlins DBacks J.Vazquez vs D.Hudson DBacks TBD 68.46% ARI 6-5

Run Total Picks of The Day!
CHA vs BOS, Under 9.5 +110, 4.5 units LOSS
NYA vs OAK, Under 7.5 -118, 2.2 units WIN
TEX vs TB, Under 7.5 -125, 1.8 units WIN
MIN vs DET, Under 8.5 -105, 1.3 units WIN
COL vs LAN, Over 7.0 +100, 1.8 units LOSS
Daily Profit: -1.1 units

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