Thursday, September 30, 2010

October Baseball



October 1st, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
DBacks Dodgers K.Kroenke vs J.Ely Dodgers 59.84% 62.42% ARI 7-5
Padres Giants C.Richard vs M.Cain Giants 61.83% 58.07% SD 6-4
Phillies Braves K.Kendrick vs B.Beachy Braves 60.78% 48.80% PHI 11-5


Current ROI: 2.44%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 10/1 9/30 9/29 9/28 9/27 9/26 9/25 9/24 9/23 9/22 9/20
1 Giants 94.99% 89.59% 89.58% 77.89% 71.68% 51.25% 63.78% 60.05% 43.43% 54.75% 47.62%
2 Padres 5.01% 10.41% 10.42% 22.11% 28.30% 48.42% 35.91% 37.42% 51.08% 34.90% 29.84%
3 Rockies 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.32% 0.31% 2.53% 5.49% 10.35% 22.55%
NL Wild-Card Odds
1 Braves 95.49% 91.15% 91.20% 76.00% 56.28%            
2 Padres 3.11% 6.54% 6.60% 16.35% 27.66%            
3 Giants 1.40% 2.31% 2.20% 7.65% 16.06%            


MLB Scoreboard

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

.500 Still Attainable



September 30th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Cubs Padres T.Gorzelanny vs J.Garland Padres 61.54% 50.01% SD 1-0
DBacks Giants B.Enright vs M.Bumgarner Giants 63.90% 70.41% SF 4-1


Current ROI: 2.00%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 9/30 9/29 9/28 9/27 9/26 9/25 9/24 9/23 9/22 9/20 9/19
1 Giants 89.59% 89.58% 77.89% 71.68% 51.25% 63.78% 60.05% 43.43% 54.75% 47.62% 34.49%
2 Padres 10.41% 10.42% 22.11% 28.30% 48.42% 35.91% 37.42% 51.08% 34.90% 29.84% 37.73%
3 Rockies 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.32% 0.31% 2.53% 5.49% 10.35% 22.55% 27.78%
NL Wild-Card Odds
1 Braves 91.15% 91.20% 76.00% 56.28%              
2 Padres 6.54% 6.60% 16.35% 27.66%              
3 Giants 2.31% 2.20% 7.65% 16.06%              


MLB Scoreboard

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

CTRL-ALT-DEL On Kershaw's Season



September 29th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Rockies C.Monasterios vs J.Chacin Rockies 64.79% 71.95% LAN 7-6
Cubs Padres R.Wells vs C.Young Padres 58.85% 48.08% SD 3-0
DBacks Giants I.Kennedy vs T.Lincecum Giants 66.10% 69.26% SF 3-1
Marlins Braves A.Miller vs D.Lowe Braves 68.75% 66.74% ATL 5-1


Current ROI: 2.30%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 9/29 9/28 9/27 9/26 9/25 9/24 9/23 9/22 9/20 9/19 9/18
1 Giants 89.58% 77.89% 71.68% 51.25% 63.78% 60.05% 43.43% 54.75% 47.62% 34.49% 50.04%
2 Padres 10.42% 22.11% 28.30% 48.42% 35.91% 37.42% 51.08% 34.90% 29.84% 37.73% 28.93%
3 Rockies 0.00% 0.00% 0.02% 0.32% 0.31% 2.53% 5.49% 10.35% 22.55% 27.78% 21.03%
NL Wild-Card Odds
1 Braves 91.20% 76.00% 56.28%                
2 Padres 6.60% 16.35% 27.66%                
3 Giants 2.20% 7.65% 16.06%                


MLB Scoreboard

Monday, September 27, 2010

Wild Card Mania



September 28th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Rockies Dodgers H.Kuroda vs J.Francis Rockies 56.52% 58.89% LAN 9-7
Cubs Padres R.Dempster vs M.Latos Padres 61.54% 59.73% CHN 5-2
DBacks Giants R.Lopez vs J.Sanchez Giants 69.51% 69.52% SF 4-2
Marlins Braves A.Sanchez vs T.Hudson Braves 63.64% 56.47% ATL 3-2


Current ROI: 2.33%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 9/28 9/27 9/26 9/25 9/24 9/23 9/22 9/20 9/19 9/18 9/17
1 Giants 77.89% 71.68% 51.25% 63.78% 60.05% 43.43% 54.75% 47.62% 34.49% 50.04% 57.04%
2 Padres 22.11% 28.30% 48.42% 35.91% 37.42% 51.08% 34.90% 29.84% 37.73% 28.93% 30.68%
3 Rockies 0.00% 0.02% 0.32% 0.31% 2.53% 5.49% 10.35% 22.55% 27.78% 21.03% 12.28%
NL Wild-Card Odds
1 Braves 76.00% 56.28%                  
2 Padres 16.35% 27.66%                  
3 Giants 7.65% 16.06%                  


MLB Scoreboard

Sunday, September 26, 2010

More Meaningless Games for LA



September 27th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Rockies Dodgers T.Lilly vs U.Jimenez Rockies 64.41% 68.49% LAN 3-1
Cubs Padres C.Zambrano vs T.Stauffer Padres 58.51% 46.07% CHN 1-0
Marlins Braves A.Sanabia vs T.Hanson Braves 64.41% 64.10% ATL 2-1


Current ROI: 2.33%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 9/27 9/26 9/25 9/24 9/23 9/22 9/20 9/19 9/18 9/17 9/16
1 Giants 71.68% 51.25% 63.78% 60.05% 43.43% 54.75% 47.62% 34.49% 50.04% 57.04% 46.54%
2 Padres 28.30% 48.42% 35.91% 37.42% 51.08% 34.90% 29.84% 37.73% 28.93% 30.68% 41.20%
3 Rockies 0.02% 0.32% 0.31% 2.53% 5.49% 10.35% 22.55% 27.78% 21.03% 12.28% 12.25%
NL Wild-Card Odds
1 Braves 56.28%                    
2 Padres 27.66%                    
3 Giants 16.06%                    


MLB Scoreboard

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Finale in AZ



September 26th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers DBacks C.Billingsley vs J.Saunders DBacks 50.98% 43.39% ARI 5-4
Giants Rockies M.Cain vs J.de la Rosa Rockies 53.27% 60.24% SF 4-2
Reds Padres H.Bailey vs C.Richard Padres 55.16% 55.94% CIN 12-2


Current ROI: 2.00%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 9/26 9/25 9/24 9/23 9/22 9/20 9/19 9/18 9/17 9/16 9/15
1 Giants 51.25% 63.78% 60.05% 43.43% 54.75% 47.62% 34.49% 50.04% 57.04% 46.54% 37.30%
2 Padres 48.42% 35.91% 37.42% 51.08% 34.90% 29.84% 37.73% 28.93% 30.68% 41.20% 52.81%
3 Rockies 0.32% 0.31% 2.53% 5.49% 10.35% 22.55% 27.78% 21.03% 12.28% 12.25% 9.86%


MLB Scoreboard

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Friday, September 24, 2010

DBack To The Future



September 25th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers DBacks J.Ely vs D.Hudson DBacks 64.91% 61.71% TBD


Current ROI: 2.00%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 9/25 9/24 9/23 9/22 9/20 9/19 9/18 9/17 9/16 9/15 9/14
1 Giants 63.78% 60.05% 43.43% 54.75% 47.62% 34.49% 50.04% 57.04% 46.54% 37.30% 46.08%
2 Padres 35.91% 37.42% 51.08% 34.90% 29.84% 37.73% 28.93% 30.68% 41.20% 52.81% 38.05%
3 Rockies 0.31% 2.53% 5.49% 10.35% 22.55% 27.78% 21.03% 12.28% 12.25% 9.86% 15.86%


MLB Scoreboard

Thursday, September 23, 2010

Dodgers Dog Of A Season Continues



September 24th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers DBacks C.Kershaw vs B.Enright Dodgers 55.36% 61.14% LAN 3-1
Reds Padres B.Arroyo vs C.Young Padres 53.92% 53.35% SD 4-3
Giants Rockies T.Lincecum vs J.Chacin Rockies 54.75% 63.53% SF 2-1


Current ROI: 2.22%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 9/24 9/23 9/22 9/20 9/19 9/18 9/17 9/16 9/15 9/14 9/13
1 Giants 60.05% 43.43% 54.75% 47.62% 34.49% 50.04% 57.04% 46.54% 37.30% 46.08% 46.78%
2 Padres 37.42% 51.08% 34.90% 29.84% 37.73% 28.93% 30.68% 41.20% 52.81% 38.05% 28.98%
3 Rockies 2.53% 5.49% 10.35% 22.55% 27.78% 21.03% 12.28% 12.25% 9.86% 15.86% 24.23%


MLB Scoreboard

Wednesday, September 22, 2010

Padres Foil Dodgers Spoil



September 23rd, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Padres Dodgers M.Latos vs H.Kuroda Dodgers 51.22% 50.15% LAN 3-1


Current ROI: 2.32%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 9/23 9/22 9/20 9/19 9/18 9/17 9/16 9/15 9/14 9/13 9/12
1 Padres 51.08% 34.90% 29.84% 37.73% 28.93% 30.68% 41.20% 52.81% 38.05% 28.98% 39.38%
2 Giants 43.43% 54.75% 47.62% 34.49% 50.04% 57.04% 46.54% 37.30% 46.08% 46.78% 39.50%
3 Rockies 5.49% 10.35% 22.55% 27.78% 21.03% 12.28% 12.25% 9.86% 15.86% 24.23% 21.11%


MLB Scoreboard

Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Dodgers Tank Game, Season Down The Drain



September 22nd, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Padres Dodgers T.Stauffer vs T.Lilly Dodgers 54.95% 57.99% SD 3-1


Current ROI: 2.41%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 9/22 9/20 9/19 9/18 9/17 9/16 9/15 9/14 9/13 9/12 9/11
1 Giants 54.75% 47.62% 34.49% 50.04% 57.04% 46.54% 37.30% 46.08% 46.78% 39.50% 50.74%
2 Padres 34.90% 29.84% 37.73% 28.93% 30.68% 41.20% 52.81% 38.05% 28.98% 39.38% 31.74%
3 Rockies 10.35% 22.55% 27.78% 21.03% 12.28% 12.25% 9.86% 15.86% 24.23% 21.11% 17.51%


MLB Scoreboard

Monday, September 20, 2010

This Is The End



September 21th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Padres Dodgers C.Richard vs C.Billingsley Dodgers 54.13% 55.45% SD 6-0


Current ROI: 2.46%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 9/20 9/19 9/18 9/17 9/16 9/15 9/14 9/13 9/12 9/11 9/10
1 Giants 47.62% 34.49% 50.04% 57.04% 46.54% 37.30% 46.08% 46.78% 39.50% 50.74% 40.00%
2 Padres 29.84% 37.73% 28.93% 30.68% 41.20% 52.81% 38.05% 28.98% 39.38% 31.74% 44.57%
3 Rockies 22.55% 27.78% 21.03% 12.28% 12.25% 9.86% 15.86% 24.23% 21.11% 17.51% 15.43%


MLB Scoreboard

Sunday, September 19, 2010

Dodgers Ready For The Fall



September 20th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
White Sox Athletics G.Floyd vs G.Gonzalez Athletics 57.98% 49.08% OAK 3-0


Current ROI: 2.62%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 9/20 9/19 9/18 9/17 9/16 9/15 9/14 9/13 9/12 9/11 9/10
1 Giants 47.62% 34.49% 50.04% 57.04% 46.54% 37.30% 46.08% 46.78% 39.50% 50.74% 40.00%
2 Padres 29.84% 37.73% 28.93% 30.68% 41.20% 52.81% 38.05% 28.98% 39.38% 31.74% 44.57%
3 Rockies 22.55% 27.78% 21.03% 12.28% 12.25% 9.86% 15.86% 24.23% 21.11% 17.51% 15.43%


MLB Scoreboard

Saturday, September 18, 2010

Dodgers Remain A Mystery



September 19th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Rockies Dodgers J.Hammel vs C.Kershaw Dodgers 55.75% 59.81% LAN 7-6
Padres Cardinals J.Garland vs A.Wainwright Cardinals 63.24% 66.66% STL 4-1
Brewers Giants C.Narveson vs B.Zito Giants 59.02% 56.63% SF 9-2


Current ROI: 2.46%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 9/19 9/18 9/17 9/16 9/15 9/14 9/13 9/12 9/11 9/10 9/9
1 Padres 37.73% 28.93% 30.68% 41.20% 52.81% 38.05% 28.98% 39.38% 31.74% 44.57% 55.61%
2 Giants 34.49% 50.04% 57.04% 46.54% 37.30% 46.08% 46.78% 39.50% 50.74% 40.00% 31.96%
3 Rockies 27.78% 21.03% 12.28% 12.25% 9.86% 15.86% 24.23% 21.11% 17.51% 15.43% 12.42%


MLB Scoreboard

Friday, September 17, 2010

Rolling Over



September 18th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Rockies Dodgers J.Chacin vs J.Ely Rockies 54.75% 51.21% COL 12-2
Padres Cardinals C.Young vs J.Suppan Padres 51.46% 43.93% SD 8-4
Brewers Giants Y.Gallardo vs T.Lincecum Giants 58.51% 57.59% MIL 2-1


Current ROI: 2.82%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 9/18 9/17 9/16 9/15 9/14 9/13 9/12 9/11 9/10 9/9 9/8
1 Giants 50.04% 57.04% 46.54% 37.30% 46.08% 46.78% 39.50% 50.74% 40.00% 31.96% 45.21%
2 Padres 28.93% 30.68% 41.20% 52.81% 38.05% 28.98% 39.38% 31.74% 44.57% 55.61% 50.19%
3 Rockies 21.03% 12.28% 12.25% 9.86% 15.86% 24.23% 21.11% 17.51% 15.43% 12.42% 4.54%
4 Dodgers 0.0006% 0.0003% 0.004% 0.002% 0.008% 0.018% 0.012% 0.01% 0.006% 0.01% 0.06%


MLB Scoreboard

Thursday, September 16, 2010

Rockies Come To LA



September 17th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Rockies Dodgers U.Jimenez vs H.Kuroda Rockies 56.33% 47.28% COL 7-5
Padres Cardinals M.Latos vs K.Lohse Padres 57.81% 53.06% STL 14-4
Brewers Giants R.Wolf vs M.Bumgarner Giants 58.33% 61.66% MIL 3-0


Current ROI: 2.88%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 9/17 9/16 9/15 9/14 9/13 9/12 9/11 9/10 9/9 9/8 9/7
1 Giants 57.04% 46.54% 37.30% 46.08% 46.78% 39.50% 50.74% 40.00% 31.96% 45.21% 45.13%
2 Padres 30.68% 41.20% 52.81% 38.05% 28.98% 39.38% 31.74% 44.57% 55.61% 50.19% 49.60%
3 Rockies 12.28% 12.25% 9.86% 15.86% 24.23% 21.11% 17.51% 15.43% 12.42% 4.54% 5.09%
4 Dodgers 0.0003% 0.004% 0.002% 0.008% 0.018% 0.012% 0.01% 0.006% 0.01% 0.06% 0.18%


MLB Scoreboard

Wednesday, September 15, 2010

NL West Tightens Back Up, Part III



September 16th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Giants T.Lilly vs J.Sanchez Giants 56.14% 59.24% SF 10-2
Padres Cardinals T.Stauffer vs J.Westbrook Cardinals 53.70% 60.65% STL 4-0


Current ROI: 2.75%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 9/16 9/15 9/14 9/13 9/12 9/11 9/10 9/9 9/8 9/7 9/6
1 Giants 46.54% 37.30% 46.08% 46.78% 39.50% 50.74% 40.00% 31.96% 45.21% 45.13% 45.53%
2 Padres 41.20% 52.81% 38.05% 28.98% 39.38% 31.74% 44.57% 55.61% 50.19% 49.60% 48.06%
3 Rockies 12.25% 9.86% 15.86% 24.23% 21.11% 17.51% 15.43% 12.42% 4.54% 5.09% 5.85%
4 Dodgers 0.004% 0.002% 0.008% 0.018% 0.012% 0.01% 0.006% 0.01% 0.06% 0.18% 0.56%


MLB Scoreboard
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Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Will The Giants Suck It Again?



September 15th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Giants C.Billingsley vs M.Cain Giants 58.51% 53.48% SF 2-1
Padres Rockies C.Richard vs J.de la Rosa Rockies 60.32% 57.73% COL 9-6


Current ROI: 2.56%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 9/15 9/14 9/13 9/12 9/11 9/10 9/9 9/8 9/7 9/6 9/5
1 Padres 52.81% 38.05% 28.98% 39.38% 31.74% 44.57% 55.61% 50.19% 49.60% 48.06% 60.02%
2 Giants 37.30% 46.08% 46.78% 39.50% 50.74% 40.00% 31.96% 45.21% 45.13% 45.53% 35.29%
3 Rockies 9.86% 15.86% 24.23% 21.11% 17.51% 15.43% 12.42% 4.54% 5.09% 5.85% 3.74%
4 Dodgers 0.002% 0.008% 0.018% 0.012% 0.01% 0.006% 0.01% 0.06% 0.18% 0.56% 0.95%


MLB Scoreboard
MLB Handicapping Matchup Reports

Monday, September 13, 2010

Clayton The Giants Slayer



September 14th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Giants C.Kershaw vs B.Zito Giants 51.69% 49.93% LAN 1-0
Padres Rockies J.Garland vs J.Hammel Rockies 59.68% 65.48% SD 7-6


Current ROI: 2.28%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 9/14 9/13 9/12 9/11 9/10 9/9 9/8 9/7 9/6 9/5 9/4
1 Giants 46.08% 46.78% 39.50% 50.74% 40.00% 31.96% 45.21% 45.13% 45.53% 35.29% 25.97%
2 Padres 38.05% 28.98% 39.38% 31.74% 44.57% 55.61% 50.19% 49.60% 48.06% 60.02% 69.56%
3 Rockies 15.86% 24.23% 21.11% 17.51% 15.43% 12.42% 4.54% 5.09% 5.85% 3.74% 2.90%
4 Dodgers 0.008% 0.018% 0.012% 0.01% 0.006% 0.01% 0.06% 0.18% 0.56% 0.95% 1.57%


MLB Scoreboard
MLB Handicapping Matchup Reports

How Good Is Good?



Question: In terms of win probability for one game, how much of a bearing does one superstar hitter have on his team?

Well, a lot of this has to do with who this superstar hitter is being replaced with. Any easy and somewhat crude method to figuring this out is to find the difference in true talent in terms of WAR/150 of the superstar player and his replacement. You want to make sure you get as accurately as possible an estimate on the true talent WAR/150 of these two players. It will be somewhat subjective, but not too difficult.

Let's take someone like Carlos Gonzalez and for arguments sake, let's call him a 5.0 WAR/150 player. Let's pretend the Rockies are going to sit Gonzalez and in his place start Ryan Spilborghs and let's call Spilborghs a 1.5 WAR/150 player. Keep in mind we are not doing any adjustments for the handedness of the pitcher being faced in this example, and in the next iteration you would definitely need to make this additional adjustment.

So we have a 5.0 minus 1.5 equals 3.5 WAR/150 difference. Since we are attempting to determine how this changes the Rockies win probability for one single game, we need to change units from per 150 games to a single game. We need to then divide 3.5 by 150 which gets us 0.02333 which is how much win probability the Rockies would lose by starting Spilborghs over Carlos Gonzalez, with the one above mentioned caveat. Let's say the Rockies were originally favored to win this game with a win probability of 60.00%. You could now safely adjust this number down to 57.67%. As far as what this would look like on a Vegas money line the adjustment would go from -150 favorites to -136.

This is a quick, dirty and easy method to use when you need to make a quick calculation on how much the win probability should change when a hitter is removed/added to the lineup. The same thing can be done when multiple players are involved, you will just need to add up all the WAR/150 of all the players taken out of the game and offset it against all the WAR/150 of all the players used to replace them.

Sunday, September 12, 2010

Rockies Rolling



September 13th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Padres Rockies C.Luebke vs J.Francis Rockies 58.33% 66.53% SD 6-4


Current ROI: 2.68%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 9/13 9/12 9/11 9/10 9/9 9/8 9/7 9/6 9/5 9/4 9/3
1 Giants 46.78% 39.50% 50.74% 40.00% 31.96% 45.21% 45.13% 45.53% 35.29% 25.97% 26.18%
2 Padres 28.98% 39.38% 31.74% 44.57% 55.61% 50.19% 49.60% 48.06% 60.02% 69.56% 71.42%
3 Rockies 24.23% 21.11% 17.51% 15.43% 12.42% 4.54% 5.09% 5.85% 3.74% 2.90% 1.51%
4 Dodgers 0.018% 0.012% 0.01% 0.006% 0.01% 0.06% 0.18% 0.56% 0.95% 1.57% 0.90%


MLB Scoreboard
MLB Handicapping Matchup Reports

Tightening Up At The Top



September 12th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Astros C.Monasterios vs N.Figueroa Astros 54.55% 50.28% HOU 7-4
Giants Padres T.Lincecum vs M.Latos Padres 57.26% 59.52% SF 6-1
DBacks Rockies I.Kennedy vs J.Chacin Rockies 62.83% 70.13% COL 4-2


Current ROI: 2.63%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 9/12 9/11 9/10 9/9 9/8 9/7 9/6 9/5 9/4 9/3 9/2
1 Giants 39.50% 50.74% 40.00% 31.96% 45.21% 45.13% 45.53% 35.29% 25.97% 26.18% 25.73%
2 Padres 39.38% 31.74% 44.57% 55.61% 50.19% 49.60% 48.06% 60.02% 69.56% 71.42% 71.16%
3 Rockies 21.11% 17.51% 15.43% 12.42% 4.54% 5.09% 5.85% 3.74% 2.90% 1.51% 2.18%
4 Dodgers 0.012% 0.01% 0.006% 0.01% 0.06% 0.18% 0.56% 0.95% 1.57% 0.90% 0.92%


MLB Scoreboard
MLB Handicapping Matchup Reports

Friday, September 10, 2010

Extra!, Extra! Dodgers Win



September 11th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Astros J.Ely vs W.Rodriguez Astros 57.08% 55.28% LAN 6-3
Giants Padres M.Bumgarner vs T.Stauffer Padres 53.70% 48.63% SD 1-0
DBacks Rockies R.Lopez vs U.Jimenez Rockies 74.23% 78.07% COL 2-1


Current ROI: 2.62%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 9/11 9/10 9/9 9/8 9/7 9/6 9/5 9/4 9/3 9/2 9/1
1 Giants 50.74% 40.00% 31.96% 45.21% 45.13% 45.53% 35.29% 25.97% 26.18% 25.73% 19.28%
2 Padres 31.74% 44.57% 55.61% 50.19% 49.60% 48.06% 60.02% 69.56% 71.42% 71.16% 76.77%
3 Rockies 17.51% 15.43% 12.42% 4.54% 5.09% 5.85% 3.74% 2.90% 1.51% 2.18% 2.83%
4 Dodgers 0.01% 0.006% 0.01% 0.06% 0.18% 0.56% 0.95% 1.57% 0.90% 0.92% 1.13%


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Thursday, September 09, 2010

Home Dogs For The Win



September 10th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Astros H.Kuroda vs J.Happ Dodgers 51.69% 53.97% LAN 4-2
Giants Padres J.Sanchez vs C.Richard Padres 51.46% 55.98% SF 1-0
DBacks Rockies J.Saunders vs J.de la Rosa Rockies 64.91% 67.42% COL 13-4


Current ROI: 2.49%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 9/10 9/9 9/8 9/7 9/6 9/5 9/4 9/3 9/2 9/1 8/31
1 Padres 44.57% 55.61% 50.19% 49.60% 48.06% 60.02% 69.56% 71.42% 71.16% 76.77% 81.09%
2 Giants 40.00% 31.96% 45.21% 45.13% 45.53% 35.29% 25.97% 26.18% 25.73% 19.28% 14.24%
3 Rockies 15.43% 12.42% 4.54% 5.09% 5.85% 3.74% 2.90% 1.51% 2.18% 2.83% 3.12%
4 Dodgers 0.006% 0.01% 0.06% 0.18% 0.56% 0.95% 1.57% 0.90% 0.92% 1.13% 1.56%


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Wednesday, September 08, 2010

How Low Can You Go!?



September 9th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Astros T.Lilly vs B.Norris Dodgers 55.56% 48.10% HOU 3-2
Cardinals Braves A.Wainwright vs J.Jurrjens Cardinals 51.69% 49.17% STL 11-4


Stats of Interest
Current ROI: 2.42%
Favorite ROI: -3.82%
Underdog ROI: 5.96%
Away ROI: -4.13%
Home ROI: 6.64%
NL ROI: 5.59%
AL ROI: -1.35%
INT ROI: 5.03%
Home/Dog ROI: 15.46%
Home/Fave ROI: 0.20%


Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 9/9 9/8 9/7 9/6 9/5 9/4 9/3 9/2 9/1 8/31 8/30
1 Padres 55.61% 50.19% 49.60% 48.06% 60.02% 69.56% 71.42% 71.16% 76.77% 81.09% 82.40%
2 Giants 31.96% 45.21% 45.13% 45.53% 35.29% 25.97% 26.18% 25.73% 19.28% 14.24% 14.91%
3 Rockies 12.42% 4.54% 5.09% 5.85% 3.74% 2.90% 1.51% 2.18% 2.83% 3.12% 1.84%
4 Dodgers 0.01% 0.06% 0.18% 0.56% 0.95% 1.57% 0.90% 0.92% 1.13% 1.56% 0.85%


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Tuesday, September 07, 2010

Playing Out The String



September 8th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Padres C.Billingsley vs C.Luebke Dodgers 50.98% 55.26% SD 4-0


Note of interest: 50 years ago today, Joe Torre signed his first professional contract. (Source: Hardball Times)

Current ROI: 2.74%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 9/8 9/7 9/6 9/5 9/4 9/3 9/2 9/1 8/31 8/30 8/29
1 Padres 50.19% 49.60% 48.06% 60.02% 69.56% 71.42% 71.16% 76.77% 81.09% 82.40% 86.69%
2 Giants 45.21% 45.13% 45.53% 35.29% 25.97% 26.18% 25.73% 19.28% 14.24% 14.91% 11.05%
3 Rockies 4.54% 5.09% 5.85% 3.74% 2.90% 1.51% 2.18% 2.83% 3.12% 1.84% 1.16%
4 Dodgers 0.06% 0.18% 0.56% 0.95% 1.57% 0.90% 0.92% 1.13% 1.56% 0.85% 1.09%


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Monday, September 06, 2010

The Unspoiler



September 7th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Padres C.Kershaw vs M.Latos Padres 55.75% 58.49% SD 2-1


Current ROI: 2.27%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 9/7 9/6 9/5 9/4 9/3 9/2 9/1 8/31 8/30 8/29 8/28
1 Padres 49.60% 48.06% 60.02% 69.56% 71.42% 71.16% 76.77% 81.09% 82.40% 86.69% 86.54%
2 Giants 45.13% 45.53% 35.29% 25.97% 26.18% 25.73% 19.28% 14.24% 14.91% 11.05% 11.68%
3 Rockies 5.09% 5.85% 3.74% 2.90% 1.51% 2.18% 2.83% 3.12% 1.84% 1.16% 0.64%
4 Dodgers 0.18% 0.56% 0.95% 1.57% 0.90% 0.92% 1.13% 1.56% 0.85% 1.09% 1.14%


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Sunday, September 05, 2010

Dodgers Never Die, They Just Fade Away



September 6th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Dodgers Padres V.Padilla vs M.Latos Padres 60.63% 65.01% SD 4-2


Current ROI: 2.11%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 9/6 9/5 9/4 9/3 9/2 9/1 8/31 8/30 8/29 8/28 8/27
1 Padres 48.06% 60.02% 69.56% 71.42% 71.16% 76.77% 81.09% 82.40% 86.69% 86.54% 86.46%
2 Giants 45.53% 35.29% 25.97% 26.18% 25.73% 19.28% 14.24% 14.91% 11.05% 11.68% 12.28%
3 Rockies 5.85% 3.74% 2.90% 1.51% 2.18% 2.83% 3.12% 1.84% 1.16% 0.64% 0.70%
4 Dodgers 0.56% 0.95% 1.57% 0.90% 0.92% 1.13% 1.56% 0.85% 1.09% 1.14% 0.57%


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Saturday, September 04, 2010

Bullpen Crashes And Burns



September 5th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Giants Dodgers J.Sanchez vs H.Kuroda Dodgers 57.08% 57.75% SF 3-0
Braves Marlins M.Minor vs A.Saniba Braves 52.27% 49.61% FLA 7-6
Nationals Pirates J.Marquis vs C.Morton Nationals 54.75% 50.09% WAS 8-1
Brewers Phillies R.Wolf vs K.Kendrick Phillies 59.51% 57.02% MIL 6-2
Reds Cardinals H.Bailey vs C.Carpenter Cardinals 63.90% 58.64% STL 4-2
Mets Cubs J.Niese vs R.Dempster Cubs 58.51% 61.52% NYN 18-5
Rockies Padres J.de la Rosa vs C.Richard Padres 56.33% 56.94% COL 4-2
Astros DBacks J.Happ vs R.Lopez DBacks 50.50% 53.50% HOU 3-2


Current ROI: 1.77%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 9/5 9/4 9/3 9/2 9/1 8/31 8/30 8/29 8/28 8/27 8/26
1 Padres 60.02% 69.56% 71.42% 71.16% 76.77% 81.09% 82.40% 86.69% 86.54% 86.46% 89.25%
2 Giants 35.29% 25.97% 26.18% 25.73% 19.28% 14.24% 14.91% 11.05% 11.68% 12.28% 9.98%
3 Rockies 3.74% 2.90% 1.51% 2.18% 2.83% 3.12% 1.84% 1.16% 0.64% 0.70% 0.47%
4 Dodgers 0.95% 1.57% 0.90% 0.92% 1.13% 1.56% 0.85% 1.09% 1.14% 0.57% 0.30%


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Friday, September 03, 2010

Furcal's Back



September 4th, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Giants Dodgers M.Cain vs T.Lilly Dodgers 55.56% 50.96% SF 5-4


Current ROI: 1.71%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 9/4 9/3 9/2 9/1 8/31 8/30 8/29 8/28 8/27 8/26 8/25
1 Padres 69.56% 71.42% 71.16% 76.77% 81.09% 82.40% 86.69% 86.54% 86.46% 89.25% 84.63%
2 Giants 25.97% 26.18% 25.73% 19.28% 14.24% 14.91% 11.05% 11.68% 12.28% 9.98% 14.74%
3 Rockies 2.90% 1.51% 2.18% 2.83% 3.12% 1.84% 1.16% 0.64% 0.70% 0.47% 0.40%
4 Dodgers 1.57% 0.90% 0.92% 1.13% 1.56% 0.85% 1.09% 1.14% 0.57% 0.30% 0.23%


MLB Scoreboard
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Thursday, September 02, 2010

Spoilers



September 3rd, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Giants Dodgers B.Zito vs C.Billingsley Dodgers 56.90% 59.61% LAN 4-2
Mets Cubs R.Dickey vs R.Wells Cubs 50.74% 56.86% CHN 7-6
Nationals Pirates L.Hernandez vs Z.Duke Nationals 51.22% 54.72% PIT 8-5
Brewers Phillies C.Capuano vs C.Hamels Phillies 71.10% 65.25% PHI 1-0
Braves Marlins K.Kawakami vs A.Miller Braves 52.61% 53.79% FLA 6-1
Reds Cardinals B.Arroyo vs J.Garcia Cardinals 57.63% 65.79% STL 3-2
Astros DBacks B.Myers vs D.Hudson DBacks 57.81% 58.37% ARI 4-3
Rockies Padres A.Cook vs C.Luebke Padres 55.95% 54.89% COL 4-3


Current ROI: 2.02%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 9/3 9/2 9/1 8/31 8/30 8/29 8/28 8/27 8/26 8/25 8/24
1 Padres 71.42% 71.16% 76.77% 81.09% 82.40% 86.69% 86.54% 86.46% 89.25% 84.63% 84.30%
2 Giants 26.18% 25.73% 19.28% 14.24% 14.91% 11.05% 11.68% 12.28% 9.98% 14.74% 15.05%
3 Rockies 1.51% 2.18% 2.83% 3.12% 1.84% 1.16% 0.64% 0.70% 0.47% 0.40% 0.39%
4 Dodgers 0.90% 0.92% 1.13% 1.56% 0.85% 1.09% 1.14% 0.57% 0.30% 0.23% 0.26%


MLB Scoreboard
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Wednesday, September 01, 2010

Better Luck Next Year



September 2nd, Simulations of interest...



Visitors Home Probable Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob Actual
Phillies Rockies J.Blanton vs J.Chacin Rockies 56.14% 58.08% PHI 12-11
Mets Braves J.Santana vs T.Hudson Braves 60.78% 58.54% NYN 4-2
A's Yankees D.Braden vs C.Sabathia Yankees 65.87% 64.88% NYA 5-0
Red Sox Orioles D.Matsuzaka vs B.Bergesen Red Sox 56.90% 57.08% BOS 6-4
Tigers Twins J.Verlander vs S.Baker Twins 53.49% 55.64% DET 10-9
Indians Mariners J.Tomlin vs D.Fister Mariners 57.45% 63.14% CLE 6-3


Current ROI: 2.31%

Simulator odds of winning the NL West
Rank Team 9/2 9/1 8/31 8/30 8/29 8/28 8/27 8/26 8/25 8/24 8/23
1 Padres 71.16% 76.77% 81.09% 82.40% 86.69% 86.54% 86.46% 89.25% 84.63% 84.30% 86.29%
2 Giants 25.73% 19.28% 14.24% 14.91% 11.05% 11.68% 12.28% 9.98% 14.74% 15.05% 13.12%
3 Rockies 2.18% 2.83% 3.12% 1.84% 1.16% 0.64% 0.70% 0.47% 0.40% 0.39% 0.35%
4 Dodgers 0.92% 1.13% 1.56% 0.85% 1.09% 1.14% 0.57% 0.30% 0.23% 0.26% 0.24%


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