2010 NL East WAR

Last updated 1/14

NL East
Team	Hitting	Pitching	Replacement	Total WAR
Phillies	30.6	17.4	46.5	94.5
Braves	22.4	20.4	46.5	89.3
Mets	22.4	14.0	46.5	82.9
Marlins	18.7	13.3	46.5	78.5
Nationals	18.5	6.9	46.5	71.9

Top 10 NL East WAR Players
Rank	Name	Team	WAR
1	Chase Utley	Phillies	8.1
2	Hanley Ramirez	Marlins	7.4
3	Roy Halladay	Phillies	6.7
4	David Wright	Mets	6.4
4	Ryan Zimmerman	Nationals	6.4
6	Brian McCann	Braves	5.5
7	Jose Reyes	Mets	5.2
7	Josh Johnson	Marlins	5.2
9	Johan Santana	Mets	4.7
10	Chipper Jones	Braves	4.6
10	Tommy Hanson	Braves	4.5

Update Notes:
12/29: Jason Bay projections added for Mets
1/14: Adjusted C.Beltran down (injury) & updated Top 10 list.

2010 NL Central WAR

Not breaking down the details like I did in the NL West version, but here are the results. Last updated 1/5

NL Central
Team	Hitting	Pitching	Replacement	Total WAR
Cardinals	24.4	19.1	48.0	91.5
Cubs	20.1	13.7	48.0	81.8
Brewers	20.4	9.7	48.0	78.1
Reds	16.2	10.7	48.0	74.9
Astros	16.3	9.7	48.0	74.0
Pirates	13.9	9.6	48.0	71.5

Top 10 NL Central WAR Players
Rank	Name	Team	WAR
1	Albert Pujols	Cardinals	7.5
2	Adam Wainwright	Cardinals	5.5
3	Prince Fielder	Brewers	5.3
4	Ryan Braun	Brewers	5.1
5	Matt Holliday	Cardinals	5.0
6	Joey Votto	Reds	4.9
6	Aramis Ramirez	Cubs	4.9
6	Chris Carpenter	Cardinals	4.9
9	Andrew McCutchen	Pirates	4.6
10	Lance Berkman	Astros	4.4

Changes Made
1/5: Adjusted A.Pujols from 8.0 to 7.5 WAR
1/5: Added Matt Holiday @ 5.0 WAR to Cardinals lineup


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2010 NL West WAR

It's that time of the year again. The time when I pull out my WAR projections (that will be initially rolled out in a Beta version) for all five NL West teams. These are rough estimates, but I feel they are pretty accurate for the most part. The WAR projections are a combination of Fangraphs and my estimates. Some teams still will be signing free agents and or making trades, so there will likely be more than a few adjustments. Feel free to point out any roster errors, any values you feel are way off, or anything else that stands out.

Last updated 1/21

	Rockies		Dodgers		Giants		DBacks		Padres
Pos	Name	WAR	Name	WAR	Name	WAR	Name	WAR	Name	WAR
C	C.Iannetta	2.5	R.Martin	3.0	B.Molina	1.2	M.Montero	3.3	N.Hundley	2.2
1B	T.Helton	3.8	J.Loney	1.8	A.Huff	1.4	A.LaRoche	1.5	A.Gonzalez	5.2
2B	C.Barmes	1.8	B.Dewitt	1.5	F.Sanchez	2.2	K.Johnson	2.5	D.Eckstein	0.6
3B	I.Stewart	1.8	C.Blake	3.5	P.Sandoval	5.0	M.Reynolds	3.9	K.Kouzmanoff	3.0
SS	T.Tulowitzki	6.0	R.Furcal	2.9	E.Renteria	1.0	S.Drew	2.2	E.Cabrera	1.7
LF	S.Smith	2.7	M.Ramirez	3.8	M.DeRosa	2.3	C.Jackson	2.5	C.Headley	2.4
CF	C.Gonzalez	4.0	M.Kemp	5.4	A.Rowand	1.7	C.Young	1.0	W.Venable	2.3
RF	B.Hawpe	1.8	A.Ethier	3.3	N.Schierholtz	1.7	J.Upton	5.5	T.Gwynn	2.8
UT	D.Fowler	1.8	J.Carroll	0.3	A.Torres	1.6	G.Parra	1.0	K.Blanks	1.2
BN	Bench	2.0	Bench	0.6	Bench	3.2	Bench	1.1	Bench	0.8
Misc	Sucktitude	-4.7		-4.0		-5.5		-6.0		-7.9
Pitchers
SP1	U.Jimenez	5.1	C.Kershaw	4.4	T.Lincecum	7.0	D.Haren	5.5	K.Correia	2.3
SP2	J.de la Rosa	3.0	C.Billingsley	3.5	M.Cain	4.0	B.Webb	5.0	C.Richard	2.0
SP3	J.Hammel	2.9	H.Kuroda	2.5	J.Sanchez	2.4	E.Jackson	2.5	M.Latos	1.5
SP4	A.Cook	2.2	V.Padilla	2.5	B.Zito	2.0	I.Kennedy	2.0	C.Young	1.5
SP5	J.Francis	2.0	E.Stults	1.7	M.Bumgarner	1.8	B.Buckner	1.5	W.LeBlanc	1.5
SP	All Others	0.1	All Others	0.7	All Others	0.1	All Others	0.3	All Others	0.7
CL	H.Street	1.5	J.Broxton	2.3	B.Wilson	2.0	C.Qualls	1.0	H.Bell	1.8
SU	R.Betancourt	0.7	G.Sherrill	1.0	J.Affeldt	1.0	J.Gutierrez	0.5	L.Perdomo	0.2
RP	All Others	0.9	All Others	1.5	All Others	1.0	All Others	1.2	All Others	1.1
Misc	Sucktitude	-0.3		-1.0		-0.8		-1.0		-6.9
Hitters		23.4		22.1		15.5		18.8		14.3
Pitchers		18.1		19.1		20.5		18.2		5.7
Replacement		46.5		46.5		46.5		46.5		46.5
Total		88.0		87.7		82.5		83.5		66.5

Update History:
1/9: ARI: Added Kelly Johnson, Bob Howry
1/11: SF: Added A.Huff and adjusted other players
1/14: ARI: Added Adam LaRoche to team
1/19: SF: Signed C-Bengie Molina
1/21: LAN: Signed P-Vicente Padilla


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Xizzles

I am debuting my very own projection system. Tonight the cover is off of the Xizzles, my very own baseball projection system. The algorithm for the system will not be made public but it is based off of a system that follows the following guidelines.

1) Keep it as simple as possible.
2) Automation
3) More recent performance weighted heavier.
4) Regression to the mean.
5) Age adjustments.

The system will not focus on opportunity based stats like RBIs, Runs, SB and Saves which are heavily dependent upon how the manager uses the player, where in the lineup a player bats, or the performance of the players hitting in front of him. Instead it will focus on rate stats (like HR/AB) and then borrow playing time projections (number of at bats or innings pitched) from some of the popular forecasting systems available. Since this is the initial roll out of the Xizzles, I will obviously be looking at ways to improve the system and visitor (do I have any visitors?) input is welcome. Here are the 2010 Xizzles for a few of the 2010 Los Angeles Dodgers hitters.

2010 Los Angeles Dodgers (last updated 12/17/09)

Name	Pos	AB	Hits	1B	2B	3B	HR	AVE	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA	BABIP
Matt Kemp	CF	600.0	176.6	117.0	27.2	5.7	26.7	0.294	0.348	0.492	0.840	0.363	0.341
Andre Ethier	RF	580.0	161.3	87.5	40.9	3.3	29.5	0.278	0.357	0.513	0.870	0.374	0.298
Manny Ramirez	LF	510.0	147.8	86.4	32.7	2.4	26.3	0.290	0.404	0.518	0.921	0.401	0.332
Casey Blake	3B	500.0	137.6	89.4	25.4	5.2	17.6	0.275	0.356	0.452	0.808	0.354	0.331
Rafael Furcal	SS	600.0	164.2	122.1	27.4	5.3	9.4	0.274	0.341	0.384	0.725	0.325	0.306
Blake DeWitt	3B	400.0	103.3	63.7	25.1	2.5	12.0	0.258	0.321	0.424	0.745	0.326	0.281
Russell Martin	C	515.0	131.2	101.3	20.0	0.1	9.7	0.255	0.347	0.351	0.698	0.319	0.284
James Loney	1B	550.0	156.1	114.2	24.8	2.5	14.6	0.284	0.359	0.417	0.776	0.345	0.302
Jamey Carroll	2B	200.0	53.0	44.3	6.4	1.1	1.2	0.265	0.337	0.326	0.662	0.304	0.328
Jason Repko	CF	175.0	40.9	24.9	11.5	1.4	3.0	0.234	0.286	0.367	0.653	0.288	0.275
Xavier Paul	RF	175.0	46.1	30.3	9.1	0.3	6.4	0.263	0.326	0.429	0.755	0.330	0.297