Sunday, October 26, 2008

Simulations, World Series Game #5

Teams Pitching Matchup Favorite Sim Odds Sim Total Runs Actual Total Runs Winner
Rays vs Phillies S.Kazmir vs C.Hamels Phillies 61.55% 9.84 7 Phillies

Saturday, October 25, 2008

Simulation, World Series Game #4

Teams Pitching Matchup Favorite Sim Odds Sim Total Runs Actual Total Runs Winner
Rays vs Phillies A.Sonnanstine vs J.Blanton Phillies 50.99 9.89 12 Phillies
Simulator Setup File Download (Old Version)
Pinnacle Sports / Vegas Odds
AccuScore
Las Vegas Hilton Odds

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Simulation for World Series, Game #3

Teams Pitching Matchup Favorite Sim Odds Sim Total Runs Actual Total Runs Winner
Rays vs Phillies M.Garza vs J.Moyer Phillies 57.03% 9.69 9 Phillies
Simulator Setup File Download (Old Version)
Pinnacle Sports / Vegas Odds
AccuScore
Las Vegas Hilton Odds


What's at stake in Game #3?
Situation Rays Odds to win W.S. Phillies Odds to win W.S.
Current Odds 48.59% 51.41%
Rays Win Game #3 70.28% 29.72%
Phillies Win Game #3 31.93% 68.07%
Methodology: I calculated the win probabilites for each of the remaining possible games, then ran a program that plays out the 7 game series 1 million times, which outputs the number of times each team won the 7 game series. If you have your own win probabilites for each game, I'd be glad to run the numbers for you based on your own game predictions.

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Simulation for World Series, Game #2

Teams Pitching Matchup Favorite Sim Odds Sim Total Runs Actual Total Runs Winner
Phillies vs Rays B.Myers vs J.Shields Rays 63.06% 9.75 6 Rays
Simulator Setup File Download (Old Version)
Pinnacle Sports / Vegas Odds
AccuScore
Las Vegas Hilton Odds


What's riding on tonight's game?
Situation Rays Odds to win W.S. Phillies Odds to win W.S.
Current Odds 46.78% 53.22%
Rays Win Game #2 59.97% 40.03%
Phillies Win Game #2 35.39% 74.85%
Methodology: I calculated the win probabilites for each of the remaining possible games, then ran a program that plays out the 7 game series 1 million times, which outputs the number of times each team won the 7 game series. If you have your own win probabilites for each game, I'd be glad to run the numbers for you based on your own game predictions.

Monday, October 20, 2008

Simulation for World Series Game #1

Teams Pitching Matchup Favorite Sim Odds Sim Total Runs Actual Total Runs Winner
Phillies vs Rays C.Hamels vs S.Kazmir Rays 51.45% 9.84 5 Phillies
Simulator Setup File Download (Old Version)
Pinnacle Sports / Vegas Odds
AccuScore
Las Vegas Hilton Odds

Saturday, October 18, 2008

Simulation for ALCS Game #7

Teams Pitching Matchup Favorite Sim Odds Sim Total Runs Actual Total Runs Winner
Red Sox vs Rays J.Lester vs M.Garza Rays 50.18% 9.50 4 Rays
Simulator Setup File Download
Pinnacle Sports / Vegas Odds
AccuScore
Las Vegas Hilton Odds